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Trade what you see NOT what you expect

  • #33,481
  • May 4, 2010 9:01am May 4, 2010 9:01am
Quoting eohater
As our monthly candle is nearing it's final burn, we should all take notice. The working monthly candle is indecisive in it's current state. This monthly candle has a big impact upon a short position I've been holding. As the current PA is showing, we are bearish from the prior 2 closed monthly candles. Take notice of the pin, followed by the full bearish candle that closed below the bottom wick of the pin. The working monthly candle has done it's retest of the pins closed price of 645x and the sellers have pushed price back down. If this monthly...

#30170
  • #33,482
  • May 4, 2010 9:59am May 4, 2010 9:59am
One hell of a 62ema bounce for those who got it! (I'm talking to you Pippi!) Hope all is well with everyone - for the juniors on here seeking help from seniors -read and re read the pdf's as well as the thread.. There is more information in here than you need.

My advice to people that are new here - Don't just go taking every pin bar on the 15minute chart. Mark your higher time frame support and resistance and then wait for price to be where YOU WANT IT TO BE before dialing down to your 15 minute chart for the entry. EO once told me this: if you take a trade and are not in the green pretty quick with this method - you might want to rethink your entry.

Peace!
Cap
  • #33,483
  • May 4, 2010 12:33pm May 4, 2010 12:33pm
Quoting Gladis Night
I think it is helpful to "work" in a friendly environment like this, stress levels can be reduced. Our little community here would not even constitute a pimple on the great forex butt if we all traded 6 figure accounts, so we are not in any kind of competition with each other. Long may we be friends

In reading through this thread - - I just gotta say - -this gal cracks me up.

"... a pimple on the great forex butt . . "
  • #33,484
  • May 4, 2010 1:00pm May 4, 2010 1:00pm
Quoting macc


It's one part of EO's method that I took to early on as I find it helps give me a quick orientation as to where we're at.

There's the 15m 35sma (the 50ema is often not far away from it too for obvious reasons) and price will currently either be above it or below it (or sitting right on it of course).

When she's not ready to break in one direction or the other the +/- 35 pip range can often send her back to the 15m ma's while she makes her mind up. I personally like the 35 pip level to coincide with either a previous price action...


For us newbies - - can you expound on this please
  • #33,485
  • May 4, 2010 2:50pm May 4, 2010 2:50pm
Quoting The Captain
One hell of a 62ema bounce for those who got it!...
Very New and am reading, reading ,reading. Thanks for the advice. I have found myself spending most of my time staring at the 15m vs Higher TF. Thanks Captainhttp://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif
Always Learning
  • #33,486
  • Edited 10:06am May 6, 2010 7:16am | Edited 10:06am
Quoting perch
For us newbies - - can you expound on this please
Hey Perch

The reason I took to that part of the method was because I liked the way it gave me a quick orientation when I first opened my charts. I was ok with my reading of the higher time frames so this then gave me an "easy-read" point of reference on the 15m charts for where we were on the moves between the higher time frame markers (s/r, ma's, PA etc)

I read it as per EO's Intraday Worksheet and apply my trading rules accordingly

i) We’re ranging/consolidating and still within the +35 pip zone.

ii) We’ve broken out of the consolidation (and EO's 35 pip zone) and we’re heading towards the next area of higher time frame interest (so looking to enter a trade or add to an existing on a dip or rally depending whether long or short)

iii) We’ve already turned at a higher time fame area and we’re heading back towards the 15m ma's (for either more consolidation or one of the two types of 35/50 cross and reverse trades - depends at what stage we're at in the trading day and the overall price move)

I'm of the view that the markets go from periods of consolidation to break-out and back to consolidation again so this part of the method is obviously a good fit. I try to be at my screen for the appropriate times (Pre-Asia, Europe/London, U.S sessions) to position myself for a break out and/or play the consolidation range (if it's offering sufficient movement for an extended period).

Some may see the +35 pips as arbitrary but, from what I gather, EO developed the 35sma +35 pip relationship from many hours of screen time and it's proven to be a good guide from my experience using it. Either way, if nothing else it provides me with clear black/white guidelines which in turn help me focus and remove emotions.

A bit long winded but that's my take on it.

Macc
  • #33,487
  • May 6, 2010 7:27am May 6, 2010 7:27am
Quoting macc
Hey Perch


A bit long winded but that's my take on it.

Macc
A bit winded is so appropriate for someone new - so thank you.

I need probably a couple of days to read - -re-read - - digest -- then finally really understand what you just said.
  • #33,488
  • May 6, 2010 7:32am May 6, 2010 7:32am
Quoting perch
#30170
That's a good post to make reference to Perch

EO (and others) have put up posts where they provide their take on the daily, weekly and monthly charts and how they then use that to structure their trading (identifying areas that will get their interest). They're gold dust posts in my opinion.

I personally write up a daily "plan" (plan A and plan B) based off the closing daily candle going into every Asia session. Keeps me focused and ready for action when price approaches key areas (I should probably get a life really but I do agree with those that say you have to treat this as a business)

Here's another good recent post along similar lines (there are plenty of others:

#32551

Macc
  • #33,489
  • May 6, 2010 7:34am May 6, 2010 7:34am
Quoting perch
A bit winded is so appropriate for someone new - so thank you.

I need probably a couple of days to read - -re-read - - digest -- then finally really understand what you just said.


I'm verbose at the best of times so have no doubt over complicated it.

EO's Intraday Worksheet has it all there in an easy to use format (in my opinion)

Macc
  • #33,490
  • May 6, 2010 7:40am May 6, 2010 7:40am
Quoting MCFly
Hi Macc,

nice post. I hope your trading is going well.
Hey McFly.

Not trading as much as I'd like at the moment but when I am it's going well.

I hope you're trading well too

Macc
  • #33,491
  • May 6, 2010 7:49am May 6, 2010 7:49am
Quoting perch
In reading through this thread - - I just gotta say - -this gal cracks me up.

"... a pimple on the great forex butt . . "
Yeah. Where is Gladis nowadays??

What have you done with her Captain?

Macc
  • #33,492
  • May 6, 2010 11:30am May 6, 2010 11:30am
I guess I'll come out and ask, becuase I either missed it, or it wasn't stated, I'll vote for I missed it.

ON the intra day trade worksheet. for the daily time frame, listed there are the level 1 and level 2 support and resistance, as well as the daily high and low.

I am quite confident I understand the daily high and low - - But for level 1 support = definition please
level 1 resistance = definition please
level 2 = if not readily apparant by your first answer = definition please.

And just so I don't miss something - the same logic applies to 4 hour level 1 S+R and so forth, correct?

and so now I don't quite understand where you are looking for the PA.
Maybe it sounds sort of dumb, but for example :

A big ole pinbar on the 4 hr chart with a long tail upwards - - this indicates that likely price will go down (yes or no)

So EO would be watching the lower time frame for a pull back up the tail of this big ole pinbar - and as soon as a nice 15 minute candle reversal sign appears - would be ready to short this thing?

Is that one scenario?

Sorry for being so basic, but I gotta start some where -- my next question will be on a specific location - - -if I am wrong above - or partly right - are you then waiting for a 50% retrace before you look for the short? (OR it should be at one of the level 1 or 2 S+R levels) (OR some other significant location)

I hope I am asking clearly enough?
  • #33,493
  • May 6, 2010 12:58pm May 6, 2010 12:58pm
Quoting macc

I personally write up a daily "plan" (plan A and plan B) based off the closing daily candle going into every Asia session. Keeps me focused and ready for action when price approaches key areas (I should probably get a life really but I do agree with those that say you have to treat this as a business)


Macc
So another quick question Macc - - you stated you set up plan A and B based on the closing daily candle going into every Asia session.

I assume then you trade the Asia session?

I would love to hear more on Plan A and B - - maybe just post it for today and tomorrows if you don't mind. Or PM if that is better.

I am assuming that won't reveal any proprietary information?

I know I ask for a lot - my apologies if I am overstepping any bounds - but if I don't quite know what I am doing yet, I gotta figure it out somehow.
  • #33,494
  • May 6, 2010 1:20pm May 6, 2010 1:20pm
Quoting perch
I guess I'll come out and ask, becuase I either missed it, or it wasn't stated, I'll vote for I missed it.

ON the intra day trade worksheet. for the daily time frame, listed there are the level 1 and level 2 support and resistance, as well as the daily high and low.

I am quite confident I understand the daily high and low - - But for level 1 support = definition please
level 1 resistance = definition please
level 2 = if not readily apparant by your first answer = definition please.

And just so I don't miss something - the same logic...

Good questions Perch sounds like I am about where you are on the learning curve here. The only one I think I have read is the S/R Lines 1 and 2 on EO's charts are draw auto. by his software. If this is not what your asking or I am wrong, sorry for butting in, just learning also. Big thumbs up to EO for his wonderful thread, and every one else that has contributed to this. THANKS x 10http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif
Always Learning
  • #33,495
  • May 6, 2010 1:21pm May 6, 2010 1:21pm
Quoting perch
So another quick question Macc - - you stated you set up plan A and B based on the closing daily candle going into every Asia session.

I assume then you trade the Asia session?

I would love to hear more on Plan A and B - - maybe just post it for today and tomorrows if you don't mind. Or PM if that is better.

I am assuming that won't reveal any proprietary information?

I know I ask for a lot - my apologies if I am overstepping any bounds - but if I don't quite know what I am doing yet, I gotta figure it out somehow.
My friend.. i suggest u read the whole babypips.com
When u finish that, and u think u understood it all, i would suggest u to re-read it again. Then u will have the general view of trading
then... before going into some strategy, any strategy, have a look at the psychological side of trading online. Knowing how things are before, will save u money and times later

For everybody... it's very sad that this thread is going down. Being a newbie, i am more on the side of who ask questions, and not the side of people who answer them. But lately here seems that questions go unanswered, so i just hope everybody will come back here.. but i am afraid that if the seniors and EO above all won't come back here... this thread will slowly go lost

Wish u all the best

Dario
I don't want a job, i want money!
  • #33,496
  • May 6, 2010 1:48pm May 6, 2010 1:48pm
For all you DOW investors...you have my deepest sympathy!
Hi, my name is Barry and you can keep your doctor...
  • #33,497
  • May 6, 2010 1:54pm May 6, 2010 1:54pm
Quoting cisco
For all you DOW investors...you have my deepest sympathy!
i've been saying it...i know many ppl have been saying it. EO has been saying it.

the dow is headed back down and SEVERLY. it will get back to 6000 very easily...dbl bottom at least.

this is NOT going to be good
  • #33,498
  • May 6, 2010 2:32pm May 6, 2010 2:32pm
Quoting cisco
For all you DOW investors...you have my deepest sympathy!
What about for those people who have been heavy short on EJ, EU and GU?
  • #33,499
  • May 6, 2010 2:43pm May 6, 2010 2:43pm
Quoting PippiNole
What about for those people who have been heavy short on EJ, EU and GU?
I knew it! "Goddamn Pippi must be wiping his ass with Benjamins right now!" was a thought which crossed my mind.
Cap
  • #33,500
  • May 6, 2010 3:01pm May 6, 2010 3:01pm
Quoting The Captain
I knew it! "Goddamn Pippi must be wiping his ass with Benjamins right now!" was a thought which crossed my mind.

Not Benjamins but Clevelands!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:1000-2f.jpg
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