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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #2,461
  • May 4, 2010 11:46am May 4, 2010 11:46am
u/cad looking for an upside exhaustion in the 250/ 285 area
  • #2,462
  • May 4, 2010 11:51am May 4, 2010 11:51am
Quoting kimd
I just took a short on the CAD, not looking so hot right at the moment
hey kim..... even though i'm long, your short will likely be a very good call.... the wilr(14) is > -3 ..... often a sign of extreme temporarily overbought.....

most all my longs were taken out at r2, which now seems a tad premature...... just 2 left which will not make it through the day.....

here is a case of polarized trades that both might win..... good luck, hope we both make out......h
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to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #2,463
  • May 4, 2010 1:54pm May 4, 2010 1:54pm
E/U, it seems it's heading toward 1.28 , I don't think it reverses before that level
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  • #2,464
  • May 4, 2010 2:04pm May 4, 2010 2:04pm
shahab8b, i posted a few other charts here: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...76597&page=119

thanks for your contributions
  • #2,465
  • May 4, 2010 2:13pm May 4, 2010 2:13pm
Quoting fx_ninja
shahab8b, i posted a few other charts here: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...76597&page=119

thanks for your contributions

nice charts ,
  • #2,466
  • May 4, 2010 2:15pm May 4, 2010 2:15pm
A/U,
weekly chart from weekend analysis,
daily chart is extremely bearish to me
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  • #2,467
  • May 4, 2010 2:18pm May 4, 2010 2:18pm
U/Cad
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  • #2,468
  • May 4, 2010 2:54pm May 4, 2010 2:54pm
Quoting shahab8b
nice charts ,
thx
  • #2,469
  • May 4, 2010 3:01pm May 4, 2010 3:01pm
eurusd stretched out kinda far today.... for those using indicators, both rsi and wilr are at overoversold 4 hour extremes...... rsi < than 10 and wilr < -97 ..... at the day s3 and week s2.....

after a high dive like that, they usually come up for air..... or at least one would hope......h
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #2,470
  • Edited 4:00pm May 4, 2010 3:32pm | Edited 4:00pm
  •  Tuner
  • | Joined Nov 2009 | Status: Love it when a plan comes together | 709 Posts
Quoting shahab8b
E/U, it seems it's heading toward 1.28 , I don't think it reverses before that level

Hey there Shahab..
What a drop today. Missed that one.
Was waiting for a retrace to jump on the train. But it keeps falling and falling:o
Maybe that weekly S2 that we are just sitting on. Pretty unsure. Not trying to catch that falling knive. could hurt (my account)
Getting back up to the daily pivot around 1.3060 could be a good re-entry (also 38.2 fib of the recent drop) --> If we get up there

Are you short at the moment? (seen you tried some longs lookin for a retrace earlier)...
"Blue Horseshoe loves Anacott Steel!"
  • #2,471
  • May 4, 2010 4:00pm May 4, 2010 4:00pm
Quoting Tuner
Hey there Shahab..
What drop today. Missed that one.
Was waiting for a retrace to jump on the train. But it keeps falling and falling:o
Maybe that weekly S2 that we are just sitting on. Pretty unsure. Not trying to catch that falling knive. could hurt (my account)
Getting back up to the daily pivot around 1.3060 could be a good re-entry (also 38.2 fib of the recent drop) --> If we get up there

Are you short at the moment? (seen you tried some longs lookin for a retrace earlier)...
Hi tuner, no I'm not short, in fact I tried longs three times , which was like suicide, I made some mistakes on the structure of the chart, I thought that would be a 3 drive with bullish potential, I wish I had my EW count before the drop.
  • #2,472
  • May 4, 2010 4:27pm May 4, 2010 4:27pm
  •  Tuner
  • | Joined Nov 2009 | Status: Love it when a plan comes together | 709 Posts
Quoting shahab8b
Hi tuner, no I'm not short, in fact I tried longs three times , which was like suicide, I made some mistakes on the structure of the chart, I thought that would be a 3 drive with bullish potential, I wish I had my EW count before the drop.
ooh. Those falling knives :/... Hope you got out without bigger damage to your account. Sure you would not go "all in" on such trades then. (or risk too much) You will make that loss up easily..I'm sure!

I am not good at the EW. Understand the basics but my counts don't seem to be correct. Would you recommend going deeper into EW as well?

Tried to pick bottom on E/G earlier. When we were just above the .86 level again. But it went right through it and cost me some pips.
--> Flat for now.
Most of the times I tried to get on board after a huge drop, we saw a big retrace then and I got stopped out.
"Blue Horseshoe loves Anacott Steel!"
  • #2,473
  • May 4, 2010 4:46pm May 4, 2010 4:46pm
Quoting Tuner
ooh. Those falling knives :/... Hope you got out without bigger damage to your account. Sure you would not go "all in" on such trades then. (or risk too much) You will make that loss up easily..I'm sure!

I am not good at the EW. Understand the basics but my counts don't seem to be correct. Would you recommend going deeper into EW as well?

Tried to pick bottom on E/G earlier. When we were just above the .86 level again. But it went right through it and cost me some pips.
--> Flat for now.
Most of the times I tried to get on board after a huge...

EW is good but I suggest you don't put much time into that, just read the free 10 lessons from EWI website ,more than enough, even those gurus get the count wrong sometimes , if you like to read I suggest you reading about fib and candlestick.
  • #2,474
  • May 4, 2010 7:59pm May 4, 2010 7:59pm
This may be a good au long opportunity. Price is just hovering around 100day sma, and in H4 thete is a dojii followed by a green candle(closing in2 hours and 6 minutes. I will go long at the close with a stop below 9065. Target 9137 and 9170. I am enclosing the H4 and D1 chart
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  • #2,475
  • May 4, 2010 8:12pm May 4, 2010 8:12pm
Quoting hellopip
This may be a good au long opportunity. Price is just hovering around 100day sma, and in H4 thete is a dojii followed by a green candle(closing in2 hours and 6 minutes. I will go long at the close with a stop below 9065. Target 9137 and 9170. I am enclosing the H4 and D1 chart
I took a long at 91. Looks like a rebound coming. Daily PP and Weekly S1 around 9145.
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #2,476
  • May 4, 2010 8:14pm May 4, 2010 8:14pm
Hello Shahab8b
Do you look at the Dollar Index?
The dollar index at 83.72 is the 61.8fib of the big drop (March to November 09). I am a dollar bull like you but I would not be surprised to see a wobble here, especially as this market got very bearish very fast.
Love your thread!
  • #2,477
  • May 4, 2010 8:48pm May 4, 2010 8:48pm
Quoting hellopip
This may be a good au long opportunity. Price is just hovering around 100day sma, and in H4 thete is a dojii followed by a green candle(closing in2 hours and 6 minutes. I will go long at the close with a stop below 9065. Target 9137 and 9170. I am enclosing the H4 and D1 chart
be careful, I think it will fall further, atm it's just consolidated
  • #2,478
  • May 4, 2010 8:59pm May 4, 2010 8:59pm
Quoting elitejets
Hello Shahab8b
Do you look at the Dollar Index?
The dollar index at 83.72 is the 61.8fib of the big drop (March to November 09). I am a dollar bull like you but I would not be surprised to see a wobble here, especially as this market got very bearish very fast.
Love your thread!

Hi elite, yea I saw it, I had a bad experience taking long on E/U yesterday ,I was thinking about a 3 drive bullish structure which was quite wrong.there is a chance that it re-touches S>R 1.3130 before falling further. U/J might come down and Yen has 13.6% weight in USDX, that will contribute to the picture and cable has been stronger than Euro recently , E/G is in clear downtrend and I dont expect that to bottom before .85. to sum up ,I don't have a good feeling for a long E/U, may be because it gave me a hard time yesterday.
  • #2,479
  • May 4, 2010 9:05pm May 4, 2010 9:05pm
Quoting MarcVUM
I took a long at 91. Looks like a rebound coming. Daily PP and Weekly S1 around 9145.
Marc, weekly and daily S/R levels are good for range trading under normal condition. 2/3 of the time market ranges and 1/3 it is in trend mode. I think with the fall in the stocks and gold /silver the condition of market is one way to the south , it means we will see impulsive moves which waves don't overlap and make use of W&D S/R level difficult, the best method for this condition is to sell pull backs in A/U

btw, I think all of these actions are the beginning of the big fall that we have been waiting for since March 09
  • #2,480
  • May 4, 2010 9:06pm May 4, 2010 9:06pm
Quoting shahab8b
Marc, weekly and daily S/R levels are good for range trading under normal condition. 2/3 of the time market ranges and 1/3 it is in trend mode. I think with the fall in the stocks and gold /silver the condition of market is one way to the south , it means we will see impulsive moves which waves don't overlap and make use of W&D S/R level difficult, the best method for this condition is to sell pull backs in A/U
safest trade you can make is in the trend direction after a pullback/retrace.
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