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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #2,441
  • May 3, 2010 10:40pm May 3, 2010 10:40pm
Quoting MarcVUM
I took the short on A/U right below Weekly PP 9230 and took 20 pips. Curious if anyone is looking for a possible 5-10 pip bounce off Daily S2 at 9204 ???
I am staying short and eyeing test 9180ish
  • #2,442
  • May 3, 2010 10:44pm May 3, 2010 10:44pm
Quoting blurbear
I am staying short and eyeing test 9180ish
Ok. btw I have Daily S3 at 9183
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #2,443
  • May 3, 2010 10:53pm May 3, 2010 10:53pm
  •  Tuner
  • | Joined Nov 2009 | Status: Love it when a plan comes together | 709 Posts
Quoting shahab8b
A/U , I got sell signal on A/U on my TFM method (re-touching daily pivot + LSR sell ) , but it's sitting on weekly pivot (.9233) , it's difficult to take short on a weekly pivot
Hey Shahab...
Got out of bed early today to "watch" the RBA decision.
Interesting reaction now with a drop after a rate hike...
Even weekly pivot seems to be taken out now. (Waiting for a H1 close below to confirm that)

So I guess we have seen... or are seein "Scenario 2" from what Kathy Lien described as possible reactions on the rate decision

http://www.fx360.com/commentary/kath...-decision.aspx

--> Focus was not on the current rate hike but more on the outlook in the statement concerning future rate hikes. (as the current rate hike was overly expected and priced in as it seems)
With Europe-session to start soon it will be interesting how far down it will go now.
Got a small long EUR/AUD as well from 1.4245.
Looks bottomed-out (for the moment) and nice bullish div as you pointed out as well.
Still long EUR has to be played carefully these days. so lets see

Good luck to you!
"Blue Horseshoe loves Anacott Steel!"
  • #2,444
  • May 3, 2010 11:04pm May 3, 2010 11:04pm
Quoting Tuner
So I guess we have seen... or are seein "Scenario 2" from what Kathy Lien described as possible reactions on the rate decision

http://www.fx360.com/commentary/kath...-decision.aspx
I read her articles too. Good Stuff.
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #2,445
  • May 3, 2010 11:11pm May 3, 2010 11:11pm
  •  Tuner
  • | Joined Nov 2009 | Status: Love it when a plan comes together | 709 Posts
Quoting MarcVUM
I took the short on A/U right below Weekly PP 9230 and took 20 pips. Curious if anyone is looking for a possible 5-10 pip bounce off Daily S2 at 9204 ???
Hi Marc...
Nice trade. That weekly pivot didn't seem to provide any serious support for now. Didn't go for it now (rule no1 for me.. no trade before coffee )
you have daily S2 @ 9204.. I got it at 9193 ?!?
But it seems this level is not respected either..

Good luck to you!
"Blue Horseshoe loves Anacott Steel!"
  • #2,446
  • May 3, 2010 11:19pm May 3, 2010 11:19pm
I am going to buy AUD at the increment of 80 pips difference either direction.

Reason - Fundamental.

Target - New high of the year

Time Frame - 1-2 weeks

Cheers

PS : without doing anything it will give you 1-2 pips a day... just in carry.
  • #2,447
  • May 4, 2010 1:58am May 4, 2010 1:58am
Not me. the thing is even with rate hikes there is no power.
Also a diamond formation on the S&P what could end badly.
Sell in May and go away, but remember to come back in September.
  • #2,448
  • May 4, 2010 4:05am May 4, 2010 4:05am
Indices in the red and suffering in Europe and US but the Yen still can't gain much traction.

SSI: AUDUSD Ratio Flips Following 27% Decline in Short Positions
Tuesday, 04 May 2010 10:26 GMT
Written by Michael Wright

FXCM Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) Statistics:

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Intraday Highlight:

AUDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the AUDUSD stands at 1.52 as nearly 60% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.17 as 54% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 30.7% higher than yesterday and 4.8% weaker since last week. Short positions are 26.4% lower than yesterday and 6.8% stronger since last week. Open interest is 0.1% weaker than yesterday and 8.3% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more AUDUSD losses.

SSI Details:

EURUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at 1.65 as nearly 62% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.37 as 58% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 11.8% higher than yesterday and 4.6% stronger since last week. Short positions are 7.2% lower than yesterday and 23.4% stronger since last week. Open interest is 3.8% stronger than yesterday and 3.1% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more EURUSD losses.

GBPUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPUSD stands at 1.24 as nearly 55% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.15 as 54% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 4.3% higher than yesterday and 4.8% weaker since last week. Short positions are 2.7% lower than yesterday and 2.2% weaker since last week. Open interest is 1.0% stronger than yesterday and 3.1% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPUSD losses.

GBPJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPJPY stands at -1.10 as nearly 52% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.19 as 54% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 0.2% lower than yesterday and 17.8% weaker since last week. Short positions are 7.4% lower than yesterday and 17.7% stronger since last week. Open interest is 4.1% weaker than yesterday and 0.0% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPJPY gains.

USDJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 1.34 as nearly 57% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.36 as 58% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 0.0% lower than yesterday and 24.2% weaker since last week. Short positions are 0.8% higher than yesterday and 49.7% stronger since last week. Open interest is 0.3% stronger than yesterday and 6.8% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY losses.

USDCAD - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCAD stands at 1.70 as nearly 63% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.81 as 64% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 6.9% lower than yesterday and 6.3% stronger since last week. Short positions are 0.9% lower than yesterday and 12.0% weaker since last week. Open interest is 4.8% weaker than yesterday and 11.9% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCAD losses.

USDCHF - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCHF stands at -1.47 as nearly 59% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.22 as 55% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 14.9% lower than yesterday and 12.6% stronger since last week. Short positions are 2.1% higher than yesterday and 14.3% weaker since last week. Open interest is 5.5% weaker than yesterday and 5.9% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCHF gains.

NZDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the NZDUSD stands at -1.84 as nearly 65% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -2.28 as 69% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 14.8% higher than yesterday and 18.4% weaker since last week. Short positions are 7.2% lower than yesterday and 138.9% stronger since last week. Open interest is 0.5% weaker than yesterday and 35.2% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more NZDUSD gains.
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf Market_Strategy_Daily_4_May_2010.pdf   121 KB | 445 downloads
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #2,449
  • May 4, 2010 4:53am May 4, 2010 4:53am
Long E/U , 1.3090 SL=50 , TP=TBD
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  • #2,450
  • May 4, 2010 5:42am May 4, 2010 5:42am
Quoting Patience
FXCM Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) Statistics:
http://cdn.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1272971051
.
thanks p..... again, with the exception of the 2% nzdusd and 9% usdcad, my open posistions are starkly against all others....

of course it is remotely possible for all 100% of those fxcm traders + me to be profitable in their postions due to differing trade holding times....

would be interesting to know their average length of trade......

//----

swissy is sizing up the daily r2......h
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to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #2,451
  • May 4, 2010 6:34am May 4, 2010 6:34am
Quoting hayseed
would be interesting to know their average length of trade......
Well if they are anything like me today, I'd say not long Just been playing pin ball with the market .... US$ might need a rest soon ....

Vive la US$ We have lift off

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Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #2,452
  • May 4, 2010 6:45am May 4, 2010 6:45am
Quoting shahab8b
Long E/U , 1.3090 SL=50 , TP=TBD
out -50
  • #2,453
  • May 4, 2010 6:45am May 4, 2010 6:45am
a/u is approaching lower med. lin H. and n/u is stalling near fib level. i already took half off. lets see if it will continue to fall like a knife or not.
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  • #2,454
  • May 4, 2010 6:53am May 4, 2010 6:53am
possible bounce area for e/u 1.2975 - 1.3040
  • #2,455
  • May 4, 2010 6:53am May 4, 2010 6:53am
E/U monthly S1 is 1.3040 , it might give some S to this falling stone
  • #2,456
  • May 4, 2010 7:20am May 4, 2010 7:20am
Quoting fx_ninja
a/u is approaching lower med. lin H. and n/u is stalling near fib level. i already took half off. lets see if it will continue to fall like a knife or not.

Hi there, good charts and trades . keep it up
  • #2,457
  • May 4, 2010 7:48am May 4, 2010 7:48am
long E/U 1.3039 SL=20 TP=TBD
  • #2,458
  • May 4, 2010 7:53am May 4, 2010 7:53am
Quoting Patience
Well if they are anything like me today, I'd say not long Just been playing pin ball with the market .... US$ might need a rest soon ....
yeah that usdx looks scary....

and speakin of scary....... i was just thinkin, today must be a short term volitility traders dream..... or nightmare.......

reminds me why i ain't one......

and speakin of ain'ts,

ain't things suppose to go up with rate increases..... the boys and girls down under are, well,,,,,, just plain down under.....

//-----

my head hurts...... way to much thinkin for a hayseed...... somebody wake me up when it's over......h
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to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #2,459
  • May 4, 2010 8:42am May 4, 2010 8:42am
Quoting shahab8b
long E/U 1.3039 SL=20 TP=TBD
E/u trade luckily survived , TP=1.3133 if it doesn't drop more to take out the sl
  • #2,460
  • May 4, 2010 9:11am May 4, 2010 9:11am
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I just took a short on the CAD, not looking so hot right at the moment
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