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  • #234,301
  • May 1, 2010 11:55am May 1, 2010 11:55am
  •  Now
  • | Joined Aug 2006 | Status: 'I should have taken the money' | 654 Posts
Quoting uraceulose
You mean hiccup?
Good, you finally got it...

BTW, thank you for correcting my englischhhish it is not my 1first language
Being right is one, taking it from the table is two.
  • #234,302
  • Edited 12:13pm May 1, 2010 11:57am | Edited 12:13pm
Quoting fontu
Thanks , I am not any renowned ellitrocian , just use for analysis in combination with others when in need.
EW is just like anytother analysing tool of the chart , graphic representation all resultant market sentiments into real movements.so it can not change the sentiment but predict in counts or the past into future I think,counts may subject to change if any sudden change in the sentiments or loss correlation of the past ones or gross changes in fundies can change price patterns in charts grossly whatever .
thanks...so to sum up, those EW movements are derived from certain numbers (as per your previous chart). Those numbers should be "predicted" by using fibs, correct ? Fib levels again are derived out of mathematical values of historical price action, correct ? Now, when i look at your chart i am already confused. I don't understand how you got those numbers and why did you put them at places where you put them. I ask you one simple question: Is this the only (right) way to mark an EW analysis on the chart ? Did every other person (EW specialists) mark them exactly the way you did ? I doubt it...So what kind of magical force will change the sentiment towards your benefit when there can be several EW analysis to apply to that single chart ? Simple and logical question and i would appreciate your comment.


Quoting fontu
and as price never move at randon jumping one place to the other ,always it to originate from one to other place , for every movement it must have to relation with the past.
i beg to differ. Here's why:

take a look at the chart i attached. It's a cumulative chart out of 1000s (not sure how many but make no mistake..there were many ) of coin tosses. I believe that if i told you that it was a financial instruments chart and ask you to apply your EW analysis on it you would have definitely figured something out, correct ? Cause it looks like a good chart to apply all sorts of technical tools, doesn't it ? Now, as we all know the probability of a coin toss can only be 50/50...whether it's heads or tails. It's nothing but a chart following a randow walk.

See, the problem is that for most people illusion is reality. You subconciously want to read something out of a chart that is completely random.

Now, don't get me wrong, i am not a random walk theory believer of any kind when it comes to markets but i acknowledge it's possible presence.

I am confident that there are inefficiencies to be exploited to move the odds greatly to your side BUT those inefficiencies can't be exploited by using (complex) tech tools.

Quoting fontu
One thing , you write buying interest , there are lot at present for any action up.see chart.
No, you only assume (and possibly correctly) that there will be buying interest at that level simply because of the monthly trendline. Now, that assumtion i get. It's a simple line and definitely A LOT of other traders take a note of it...unlike the EW analysis.

Moreover, i doubt about the SPECULATIVE buying interest at that level...only big players possible profit taking which will evidently call for higher prices.

You know, the only thing you can hope for when using tech tools is that those are simply self-fulfilling prophecies. And the best that EW can be is exactly that.


Right now you bet on the argument that big players will not sell at those low levels but exit (partially) their short positions (taking longs) waiting to get in higher.

just trying to simplify things. Of course, there are a lot more to it than that.



take care.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #234,303
  • May 1, 2010 11:58am May 1, 2010 11:58am
Quoting Jhig
I'm stingy with handing out vouchers. An FF user really have to show/tell/teach/educate me some knowledge before I issue a voucher. Make me go "WOW" and spit out your mad knowledge of the market, then and only then will you get a vouch from me.

It's only fair ... A lot of FF users are looking for vouchers but haven't produced anything ... but drivel.
If I could give a voucher, I would also be "stingy" as who to give one to. That person would have to demonstrate they know what they are doing in forex or offer some useful advice on the psychological aspect of trading. With that said, there are alot of people on here who have vouchers that shouldn't (like Sky ). I know for certain there are many people here who have them and are not better traders than I am. And I say that in a humble manner and with respect.
  • #234,304
  • May 1, 2010 11:58am May 1, 2010 11:58am
Quoting Duce
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repor...rticle1553174/

Sometimes pictures are worth BILLIONS of Euros...I mean words.
No, i would still stick with euros than words
  • #234,305
  • Edited 1:16pm May 1, 2010 11:59am | Edited 1:16pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Zoomed in:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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4h chart with a nice bearish, almost perfect, shooting star candlestick to end the week on. Lets see where Sunday opening is but currently I am sitting out for the moment until I get my confirmation as to whether 1.328x holds as resistance or breaks! Long-term this baby will crash to rock bottom as further Euro events unfold. I think the IMF decision to loan Greece some Drachma might give it a little push back up and I expect it to come early next week as time is running out for Greece. 19th May is when they need to refinance!

Enjoy the rest of your weekend!

Whoops, one of the S/R lines is a bit out.. correcting now. FIXED!
  • #234,306
  • May 1, 2010 12:06pm May 1, 2010 12:06pm
Quoting Now
You are welcome! (Thanks for your voucher (hint) )
hehe,

not sure what they are and why they're useful....just here to read and occasionally comment on things.

As far as i've heard they should represent the fact that other members here think you are either a good trader or smth similar.

So, because of that it would be a little premature to give one to you because of the link you gave out...which has no other value than to just get on your nerves when you left your position open on friday

anyways, maybe you just made a joke out of it...hard for me to distinguish
  • #234,307
  • May 1, 2010 12:18pm May 1, 2010 12:18pm
Quoting Now
To cut it short,

The whole joke is that FF users with 5000+ or 1000+ whatever posts like 5,8 or 2,1 post/day and a lot of vouchers just have proven that they do not have a life but sitting behind an LCD screen. With my 150 posts sincs 2006 and so, as if I am begging for vouchers, that is the whole joke of it. You will more likely get a "BLOW" than a "WOW" when it comes to real trading account statements being shown here (most users will likely pass on this one), that is where real €$£ vouchers are earned/made, the rest to my opinion is BS....
I work in IT. My life does consist of sitting behind a screen I also have two young children. It is called the balancing act of life! Included in my 2000 posts is a lot of chitter chatter to friends on here, but hopefully somewhere in there also some useful posts. If you think people should just post their statements on here to say "Look how fooooking good I am" and the rest is BS, then you are sorely mistaken.
  • #234,308
  • May 1, 2010 12:19pm May 1, 2010 12:19pm
Quoting Now
To cut it short,

The whole joke is that FF users with 5000+ or 1000+ whatever posts like 5,8 or 2,1 post/day and a lot of vouchers just have proven that they do not have a life but sitting behind an LCD screen. With my 150 posts sincs 2006 and so, as if I am begging for vouchers, that is the whole joke of it. You will more likely get a "BLOW" than a "WOW" when it comes to real trading account statements being shown here (most users will likely pass on this one), that is where real €$£ vouchers are earned/made, the rest to my...

well, one of the shortcomings of being a (active) trader is that it's fking lonely business ...So, while one is waiting "alone in the dark" for his trading signal he simply finds something to do or someone to talk to
  • #234,309
  • May 1, 2010 12:29pm May 1, 2010 12:29pm
Quoting lumesh
thanks...so to sum up, those EW movements are derived from certain numbers (as per your previous chart). Those numbers should be "predicted" by using fibs, correct ? Fib levels again are derived out of mathematical values of historical price action, correct ? Now, when i look at your chart i am already confused. I don't understand how you got those numbers and why did you put them at places where you put them. I ask you one simple question: Is this the only (right) way to mark an EW analysis on the chart ? Did every other person (EW specialists)...
Thanks for lot of comments in tendem, now I have no time to mention each & the argument seems endless when you are so confident in every aspect & so knowedgeable & holding a position youself of a judge.

May try next day if any time as I have to leave computer as is already 11.30pm my time.goodnight .
fontu
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #234,310
  • May 1, 2010 12:37pm May 1, 2010 12:37pm
Quoting fontu
Thanks for lot of comments in tendem, now I have no time to mention each & the argument seems endless when you are so confident in every aspect & so knowedgeable & holding a position youself of a judge.

May try next day if any time as I have to leave computer as is already 11.30pm my time.goodnight .
fontu

on the contrary, i am only confident of what I AM saying...i have to be...otherwise my years of trading experience can be washed down the toilet.

But by no means am i confident to say it's the only way....it's not.

I do understand though that this discussion leads nowhere simply because our trading styles and, moreover, HABITS are different. But, if nothing else, i learn a bit from you and maybe you learn smth from me, dunno.
  • #234,311
  • May 1, 2010 12:49pm May 1, 2010 12:49pm
Quoting Now
Good, you finally got it...

BTW, thank you for correcting my englischhhish it is not my 1first language
I was just having some fun. Sry. I think a few of us couldn't tell if you were serious or joking?

People post links to after-hours price sites EVERY WEEKEND here...that's why it was funny. You could also just google "forex mid-market prices" or something...it's not some secret. Also, the price on Saturday night/
Sunday morning doesn't really matter. Can you trade it?(I can and the spread sucks) We all know it's gonna change by market open tomorrow, then everyone will argue about the "official" open cause different brokers open at different times..
It just happens almost every week and the "xe.com post" always seems to kick it off. lol

Truth is, a voucher don't affect ones personal trading/profit AT ALL. I'd say most here though with 10+ V's, are definitely worth learning from.

You can say what you say about the guys with thousands of posts but the fact is that you don't hang on a forum like this for years, earn the respect they have without helping people throughout your tenure.

The 'voucher' policy or whatever is clearly explained right here on the forum.(The reason I say this is the guy you asked has one voucher and you need 4 or 5 to vouch for someone anyway) They're not really that tough to earn if you want one so bad...just practice trading/charting A LOT and you'll get them naturally.

2=2's post summed it up well.

DZ
  • #234,312
  • May 1, 2010 12:54pm May 1, 2010 12:54pm
Quoting uraceulose
The 'voucher' policy or whatever is clearly explained right here on the forum.(The reason I say this is the guy you asked has one voucher and you need 4 or 5 to vouch for someone anyway) They're not really that tough to earn if you want one so bad...just practice trading/charting A LOT and you'll get them naturally.

2=2's post summed it up well.

DZ

hehe, thanks for clearing that up. Have no idea about the policies and stuff related. Don't really care...it doesn't make me a better trader.
  • #234,313
  • May 1, 2010 12:57pm May 1, 2010 12:57pm
Quoting lumesh
well, one of the shortcomings of being a (active) trader is that it's fking lonely business ...So, while one is waiting "alone in the dark" for his trading signal he simply finds something to do or someone to talk to
  • #234,314
  • May 1, 2010 1:00pm May 1, 2010 1:00pm
Quoting bbakker
4h chart with a nice bearish, almost perfect, shooting star candlestick to end the week on. Lets see where Sunday opening is but currently I am sitting out for the moment until I get my confirmation as to whether 1.328x holds as resistance or breaks! Long-term this baby will crash to rock bottom as further Euro events unfold. I think the IMF decision to loan Greece some Drachma might give it a little push back up and I expect it to come early next week as time is running out for Greece. 19th May is when they need to refinance!

Enjoy the rest of...
As a follow up to that chart there...here's a 4hr w/channel and fib that posted a few times on thurs or friday.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 4hr delete.gif Size: 62 KB
  • #234,315
  • May 1, 2010 1:22pm May 1, 2010 1:22pm
Quoting uraceulose
As a follow up to that chart there...here's a 4hr w/channel and fib that posted a few times on thurs or friday.

Attachment
Nice

The IMF can always spoil it, but to be honest I think it is already priced in. Sure we might see a jump up on the news from the sheep, but I expect it to get hammered by the big boys when the price is right!
  • #234,316
  • May 1, 2010 3:17pm May 1, 2010 3:17pm
No offence, but euro and especially Germany are going dictative way as back in history... Merkel just said, that everyone who tries to destabilize euro will have their voice shut down...

Geez.. Euro = chinese european currency?

C'mon, i thought we have free market and some kind of democracy/republic stuff ongoing here
  • #234,317
  • May 1, 2010 3:45pm May 1, 2010 3:45pm
Quoting Predi
No offence, but euro and especially Germany are going dictative way as back in history... Merkel just said, that everyone who tries to destabilize euro will have their voice shut down...

Geez.. Euro = chinese european currency?

C'mon, i thought we have free market and some kind of democracy/republic stuff ongoing here
It is not dictative, they have to say it. What else are they going to say... Fooook, the Euro is doomed! So to answer your question, no the Euro is not a Chinese European currency because it is a floating currency and not pegged like the Renminbi is. It is a free market and we trade on it every day! Are they going to peg the Euro to the $ or £? The simple answer to that is a final no
  • #234,318
  • May 1, 2010 3:48pm May 1, 2010 3:48pm
Quoting bbakker
It is not dictative, they have to say it. What else are they going to say... Fooook, the Euro is doomed! So to answer your question, no the Euro is not a Chinese European currency because it is a floating currency and not pegged like the Renminbi is. It is a free market and we trade on it every day! Are they going to peg the Euro to the $ or £? The simple answer to that is a final no
euro doomed .. damn they were saying that about bank stocks back in 2008 .. now look back to where they started and climbing higher

do not guess ... trade the chart
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #234,319
  • May 1, 2010 3:55pm May 1, 2010 3:55pm
Lookin a little weak.....

Unless sumthin significant changes over the w/e to change this picture... my box of crayons has me lookin for a short entry.
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  • #234,320
  • May 1, 2010 4:39pm May 1, 2010 4:39pm
I was just looking at the calender, don't forget first couple days Tokyo banks closed. Thursday huge news day in Europe and election in Britain.

Friday is NFP too.
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