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EURUSD

  • #233,781
  • Apr 29, 2010 2:25pm Apr 29, 2010 2:25pm
Quoting Leeson
Whats the pivot? 1,32? Thks.
1.3199
  • #233,782
  • Apr 29, 2010 2:26pm Apr 29, 2010 2:26pm
Quoting ak4x
I'm getting that 'neck hair' alert...

If this thing reverses back north , I'm out till next week and watching... from a Safe distance.

Stay Nimble guys..

Attachment

Yes sir worked out that way
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  • #233,783
  • Apr 29, 2010 2:27pm Apr 29, 2010 2:27pm
Quoting Predi
Isn't it Head and Shoulders forming on SP500 on 1 MONTH lookout? looks like it is to me, perfectly correlated with whats going to happen here
Predi, for those who do not have the SP500 on hand, what is your outlook for the Euro?
  • #233,784
  • Apr 29, 2010 2:30pm Apr 29, 2010 2:30pm
Dunno we have last 30mins of US session, and that last 30mins is a time for either spike up, break down or flat

I would say go up
  • #233,785
  • Apr 29, 2010 2:31pm Apr 29, 2010 2:31pm
Quoting benssol
[Dow Jones] Not everyone agrees with a bailout for Greece. David Rosenberg, chief economist at Gluskin Sheff says to actually come to the aid of Greece, especially after all the accounting gimmickry, would send a signal to investors that the best way to make money is buy the debt of the most risky and highest yielding enterprise because there will always be a bailout. "Rewarding bad investment decisions is a huge mistake," he says, noting that Greece has been in default in its recent 200-year history almost half the time. So Greece defaults, bondholders...
it just dont get more realistic then this.... ozzz is thinking nobody fails. and if they do the rest bail them out. saving the weak weakens the strong. reality

they are saving the 2008 banks again not greece.. goldmen gets a check with bailout. the u.s. helps fund the imf.. so in reality the u.s. is part of bailout. reality
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #233,786
  • Apr 29, 2010 2:32pm Apr 29, 2010 2:32pm
Quoting gatorinla
it just dont get more realistic then this.... ozzz is thinking nobody fails. and if they do the rest bail them out. saving the weak weakens the strong. reality
What?!? There's no Santa Claus?
  • #233,787
  • Apr 29, 2010 2:33pm Apr 29, 2010 2:33pm
And I have this for guidance
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  • #233,788
  • Apr 29, 2010 2:38pm Apr 29, 2010 2:38pm
Quoting Leeson
Can please someone explain me why EUR is related to stocks? I mean, I was thinking that if the US markets would go up, EUR would come down, because more money was flowing into the US stock market, but looks like I am completely wrong! Can someone shed some light on this? I would appreciate it. Thanks!
To dangerously oversimplify, USD has traditionally been seen as the safe currency, so money flows to USD in times of perceived crisis, and out of USD in times of perceived health. Risk aversion vs risk appetite.
  • #233,789
  • Apr 29, 2010 2:40pm Apr 29, 2010 2:40pm
Quoting acumen
if you are bored.

this sure is interesting.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...n5G35A7k&pos=5
devalue.. damn who would of thunk that?

*L*

you cant do it.. everybody gets a trophy in ozz.. the slow kids get a bigger trophy..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #233,790
  • Apr 29, 2010 2:45pm Apr 29, 2010 2:45pm
Quoting Mr J
To dangerously oversimplify, USD has traditionally been seen as the safe currency, so money flows to USD in times of perceived crisis, and out of USD in times of perceived health. Risk aversion vs risk appetite.
I'll most certainly go with that

Also, sell Euro's (or other) buy dollars to buy stocks?
  • #233,791
  • Apr 29, 2010 2:51pm Apr 29, 2010 2:51pm
Quoting Mr J
To dangerously oversimplify, USD has traditionally been seen as the safe currency, so money flows to USD in times of perceived crisis, and out of USD in times of perceived health. Risk aversion vs risk appetite.
Ok, this I understand. I dont understand is if US stock market goes up EUR goes up! Should be the other way, because lot's of European investors will be investing in the US stock market because it's more attractive to them than the EZ stock markets, so they will be buying USD selling EUR, so how comes the EUR rises when US Stock markets rise?!?
  • #233,792
  • Apr 29, 2010 3:11pm Apr 29, 2010 3:11pm
setting up for an other attact on the 1.3220- 210 bull defence.
I think it may hold again this time and give the next time,

lets see

teb
  • #233,793
  • Apr 29, 2010 3:18pm Apr 29, 2010 3:18pm
Quoting Leeson
Ok, this I understand. I dont understand is if US stock market goes up EUR goes up! Should be the other way, because lot's of European investors will be investing in the US stock market because it's more attractive to them than the EZ stock markets, so they will be buying USD selling EUR, so how comes the EUR rises when US Stock markets rise?!?

Fundamentally a country's currency will increase its value if its stocks go up. However USD and Yen are exceptional in these day. When Yen go down, Japan stock go up, USD value also move opposite to US stock. The explanation is risk appetite and interest rate expectation. People borrow USD to buy stock because interest rate is extremely low, Fed decision to keep low interest for extent period today USD push stock sky high. Stock is riskier than Treasury bill, when risk appetite increase, people buy stock especially small cap stock (S&P 500), they also buy high yield but high risk currency use low interest rate currencies such as USD and Yen to earn from carry trade. You will see USD and Stock move in same direction when USD interest rate being hiked. There are so many factors affect rate of specific pair too, that is why sometime you may see AUD go up but EUR go down etc.
  • #233,794
  • Apr 29, 2010 3:19pm Apr 29, 2010 3:19pm
Quoting Leeson
Ok, this I understand. I dont understand is if US stock market goes up EUR goes up! Should be the other way, because lot's of European investors will be investing in the US stock market because it's more attractive to them than the EZ stock markets, so they will be buying USD selling EUR, so how comes the EUR rises when US Stock markets rise?!?
Look at the US Dollar as a government stock. Investors invest money in whatever they think will make them money...oil, tech stocks, treasuries, bonds. But you can't necessarily invest in everything at the same time. So they have to choose which will give them the biggest / safest return. If they choose oil and tech, then less investment money goes into government t-bills. When stock market becomes risky, they pile into currencies.

BUT, what one has to remember is that when you buy into currencies or government treasuries, you are banking on that government's "business plan" and that you will make a good return on your investment. Right now...no world government has a half decent plan. So...you pick the LEAST likely currency to fail...USD? EURO? LOONIE? Make an educated guess.
Si vis pacem, para bellum.
  • #233,795
  • Apr 29, 2010 3:23pm Apr 29, 2010 3:23pm
Quoting Duce
Look at the US Dollar as a government stock....
Thanks for your answer!
  • #233,796
  • Apr 29, 2010 3:26pm Apr 29, 2010 3:26pm
DX hourly basing to shoot for resistance, EUR down IMO
Prices oscillate, trends persist. Trend is your friend.
  • #233,797
  • Edited 3:45pm Apr 29, 2010 3:32pm | Edited 3:45pm
best i can figure is the u.s. will fund 1/3 of 17% of imf loan.

u.s. 17% bailout hidden not talked about.
japan 6%
germany 6%
uk 5%
france 5%
italy 3%
spain 1.3%

germany 6%
france 5%
italy 3%
spain 1.3%
..............15.3% + additional for bailout. hidden not talked about.

if imf is funding 1/3 of deal U.S.. will pay 17% of the 1/3. almost 6% of entire deal. (rough math) but billions...

in addition you will not hear the others like germany saying "i am part of the imf" germany wants imf to pay also but in classic misdirection dont say "im 6% of the imf".

ask your congressman for a kiss because your all being phucked atm. this bailout goes into the same 2008 banks pockets that didnt kiss you last time. another shell game..i bet cnbc/bloomberg/fox dont tell you this.. guess who pays them?

call a senator ....http://www.senate.gov/general/contac...nators_cfm.cfm
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #233,798
  • Apr 29, 2010 3:33pm Apr 29, 2010 3:33pm
Oil @ 85.4.....
  • #233,799
  • Apr 29, 2010 3:49pm Apr 29, 2010 3:49pm
Quoting gatorinla
best i can figure is the u.s. will fund 1/3 of 17% of imf loan.

u.s. 17% bailout hidden not talked about.
japan 6%
germany 6%
uk 5%
france 5%
italy 3%
spain 1.3%

germany 6%
france 5%
italy 3%
spain 1.3%
..............15.3% + additional for bailout. hidden not talked about.

if imf is funding 1/3 of deal U.S.. will pay 17% of the 1/3. almost 6% of entire deal. (rough math) but billions...

in addition you will...

Do you have a source link on the numbers please

TIA
  • #233,800
  • Edited 4:20pm Apr 29, 2010 3:50pm | Edited 4:20pm
Quoting Mr Hatch
i don't know what caused oct'08 rise, but it shows that these massive counter-trend movements are there. we have never tested 38.2 @1.398 and 50% @1.42 areas... I don't think the latter will be reached, but sign for a rise are there... I will be honest, these days are a loosing game for me... I make something like 40 pips, only to loose 60-80 again.
Verstehe ich nicht. Wie kommts? War doch ganz einfach heute.


So war meine Idee für diesen Tag vor 23 Stunden :


While 1.3168 - 1.3155 might hold - there might be some chances to see one more attempt towards 1.3266 or above that even towards 1.3281 - 1.3286. But as long as not crossed beyond 1.3302 / 07 it should reverse then again for a drift down towards 1.3134 or even below that to some lower levels again.


Paar mal davor habe ich auch erwähnt warum.


Schade. Bei Dir finde ich es schade. Der Rest hier ist mir recht gleichgültig. Wie schon gesagt - es liegt in der Luft. Nicht nur in den Charts.

Bei mir lief es recht gut.

Vielleicht liegts an der schlechten Umgebung.


Keine Ahnung
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