NatGas weekly charts

Good luck today. I am not trading NY session today.

sisse

thank you . why? because the news is comming?

Yesterday was the day to release the NATGAS storage,and as usually moves with the news. But in the 4h chart you can see that rebound from major suport at 3.970 +/- . And on daily chart it respect the red trend line . let's see today if break this majos suport and trendline , or bounce and continue to move up as yesterday before news.
Working gas in storage was 1,756 Bcf as of Friday, April 9, 2010, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 87 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 64 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 246 Bcf above the 5-year average of 1,510 Bcf. In the East Region, stocks were 126 Bcf above the 5-year average following net injections of 45 Bcf. Stocks in the Producing Region were 55 Bcf above the 5-year average of 610 Bcf after a net injection of 38 Bcf. Stocks in the West Region were 65 Bcf above the 5-year average after a net addition of 4 Bcf. At 1,756 Bcf, total working gas is above the 5-year historical range.

Also i found this message at www.firstenercastfinancial.com :

From UBS:

The Independent Petroleum Association of America warned that US natural

gas production is set to decline. At $4Btu, margins are either very

thin or more likely negative. Consequently there is a shift in capital

spending towards oil resulting in declining gas production. "The

declines are real. As companies move away from gas because you have

soft prices, the declines will hit". The EIA also expects declining

production next year as drilling slows, which would be the first decline

since 2005.

For today we have
R3: 4.143
R2: 4.103
R1: 4.076
PIVOT: 4.034
S1: 3.993
S2: 3.966
S3: 3.925

Yesterday broke the trend line on h4 and also broke pivot at 3.969 .

Not this kid as the currency meter is all over the place. looks like I will be looking at shorter time frame, 5min charts.Did any body trade the eur usd at 4.45 pm nz time.

This is my view for today

sisse

Nice short still holding for final target but it doesn't look as good as it did before . Did you take the short?

sisse

hallo sisse,i didn't cought the sell yesterday, i was out . but today i hope to trade some natgas. it looks like test down and now try to go up....

This is the one market that I have not tamed fairly well, I wish all you guys well on this one. My hat is off to anyone who is making consistent money off this bucking bronco. PM me your secret if you could.

Yes NG is a wild beast. There is no hidden secret and I don't think you can trade gas all the time (not because it doesn't move, but it moves too much). I only look for trades during market hours, outside of news and the first two hours of opening, around major S/R levels with very very fast triggers and exits. So there is a lot of "filters" and even then is still a wild beast.

sisse

Never heard of Natural Gas trading. This is the first time I see Natural gas being traded like other commodities.

it is interesting. right now is between pivot at 4.206 and R1 at 4.300. if break any of these will go down or up....

you can try....

lets see what happen whit this new contract in nat gas which make an up gap for 87 pips about.

This market is waiting for any good or bad news for a big move either way

tomorrow is release for natgas storage........

New Methodology for Natural Gas Production Estimates :
http://www.eia.doe.gov/oil_gas/natur...eia914meth.pdf

NGI's Daily Gas Price Index
published : April 29, 2010
May Goes Quietly as Traders Await Supply Data Smorgasbord

The May natural gas futures expiration Wednesday was devoid of any fireworks as the contract traded between $4.186 and $4.326 before going off the board at $4.271, up 5.5 cents from Tuesday's finish. Taking over the prompt-month contract title, June futures edged 3.3 cents higher to close at $4.348.
"For the second straight month, expiration has been pretty quiet," said Steve Blair, a broker with Rafferty Technical Research in New York. "There really wasn't anything outstanding that occurred on Wednesday. It was all pretty orderly."
Now with expiration out of the way, traders Wednesday afternoon were preparing for a rare double dose of supply data to be released Thursday...with a twist. In addition to the normal weekly Energy Information Administration (EIA) storage report, traders on Thursday will also have to digest the administration's announcement of February 2010 production estimates, which will include recalculations for all of 2009 using the new methodology (see Daily GPI, April 27).
There has been some controversy over the EIA-914 production estimates in the last year with independent analysts saying EIA has consistently overestimated volumes and failed to track the production decline that has accompanied declining prices (see Daily GPI, April 9). According to the EIA, Thursday's revision will likely reveal a production drop for past months, but just how big of a drop is the question that has traders on the edge of their chairs.
"I think May expired so quietly because everyone is waiting to see what the EIA puts on the market Thursday with the anticipated downward revision in production," Blair told NGI. "In fact, I think the market having this 'revision' over its head for the last month or so has a lot to do with the back and forth sideways trade we've seen recently. Traders are wary to push this thing too far in either direction for fear of what the revision will show. On the one hand, there are people saying this is all water under the bridge and won't be a big deal, but then there are the folks that believe this could shake up fundamentals, and therefore prices, pretty well. We'll have to wait and see what they do."
Some top analysts see hints that a market bottom may be in the making. "Prices could not break or settle above key resistance at $4.334, but as long as they hold above the critical support at $3.810, the hope that they may be forming a bottom remains intact," said Peter Beutel, president of Cameron Hanover, a Connecticut-based energy consulting firm. "The biggest problem moving forward is that storage levels are growing against a year ago and against the five-year average. A year ago this week, the year-on-year surplus was 464 Bcf (34.14%). And now it is 95 Bcf above that. Surprises still seem to be on the upside, but the fundamentals are not yet showing signs of genuine improvement."
Taking a closer look at Thursday's storage report for the week ending April 23, Kyle Cooper of IAF Advisors in Houston expects a build of 77 Bcf, while Citi Futures Perspective analyst Tim Evans is expecting a 55 Bcf build. A Reuters survey of 25 industry players produced a 55 Bcf to 80 Bcf range of injection estimates with an average expectation that storage supplies will grow by 70 Bcf.
The number revealed Thursday morning will also be compared to last year's 77 Bcf build for the similar week and the five-year average addition of 67 Bcf.