Spud's Predictive MTF Stochastics

Anyone still trading Spud's methods. How are your results doing this year?


I stopped at the end of last year - because of a planned broker switch (planned ECN) which led me to extensive new programming ( hoping to make use of FIX protocol api in the future).

Anyway - would be still interested if any of you trade currently something based on Spud's methods and how are results this year.

I really like multiple time frame analysis as it is simple and straight forward. I pretty much know this system only and find it pretty tough to learn others as i have heard of great results from people using it.

The main problem with stochastics and MTF i feel is that there are a high precentage of winners. I have maintained at least a 80% ever since i started with it. The main problem is when my losers kick in. They are usually large, very large. I don't know how to reduce this. People have gave me solutions to it which was to have a predefined stop lost but then by having one I usually find myself with more loosing trades as the market fluctuates more than anticipated.

Anther problem in dealing with MTF is the signals that each timeframe gives. When I trade the MTF i use 3 screens. The first screen I go with a MACD and stochas and some emas and BB. I figure out the trend here on the highest time frame. After that i go to second time frame which is 5 minute and then I look for stochastics to be point in the same direction as the first time frame. but the thing is after i spot a trend, on first TF, it usually gives me little time to enter as the 5 min stochs quicly goes OVERBOUGHT. The stochastics are giving me a great headache with the quick overbought or oversold position everything there is a quick move. I am not really sure how others are dealing with this cuz at certain time prices continue to go further in the direction of oversold and overbought and when this happens, i don't know when the price action will reverse and change. Anyone can help me out to figure when to determine in and out?

Anyone could please point me where I can get the guide in PDF? Thanks.

Click the paper-clip in the top right hand corner.

Thank you so much for your help.

To all fans and traders of Spud's MTF Stochastic:

A Happy and Successful New Year 2011.

Just some updates.

For different reason I have started trading manually in the mid of Oct 2010.

I keep a weekly record and try to aim at 5 % per week. (I know this quite a lot but one has to consider that I do have more time than many as I do not have a regular day job)

Well this are the results so far of the manual trading:

Results are always for the previous week

2010.10.14 Start
2010.10.18 Weekly % 3.15 Compound % 3.15
2010.10.25 Weekly % 6.41 Compound % 9.77
2010.11.01 Weekly % 7.56 Compound % 18.07
2010.11.08 Weekly % 2.55 Compound % 21.09
2010.11.15 Weekly % 8.93 Compound % 31.90
2010.11.22 Weekly % 16.53 Compound % 53.70
2010.11.29 Weekly % 14.41 Compound % 75.84
2010.12.06 Weekly % 7.55 Compound % 89.11
2010.12.13 Weekly % -2.18 Compound % 84.99
2010.12.20 Weekly % 5.17 Compound % 94.55
2010.12.27 Weekly % 6.13 Compound % 106.48
2011.01.03 Weekly % 13.32 Compound % 133.97
2011.01.10 Weekly % -8.01 Compound % 115.23
(this loss was expected because of the years change and how I adjusted my account))
2011.01.17 Weekly % 6.58 Compound % 129.39 (current week)



Obviously there was some luck too


I base my trading much on what Spud in general shared - but do not follow a strict set of rules (which has advantages and also clear disadvantages)



Anyway this is a live account result. Maybe it does motivate some of you to look again into what Spud shared.

[quote=M_j;4304378]Just some updates.

For different reason I have started trading manually in the mid of Oct 2010.

I keep a weekly record and try to aim at 5 % per week. (I know this quite a lot but one has to consider that I do have more time than many as I do not have a regular day job)

Hi M_j,

Can you share your setting to the chart and what are your changes to the rules?

Thanks!
E.T.

hi E.t,

as I said I do not trade by strict rules but use the general ideas Spud has shared.

MTF Stochastic:

My main Time frames are M1, M5 (I use both as Entries (and trade management) but M1 has more weight for me than the M5) and in addition M15 and H1.

I also look at times at the H4 and daily charts.


I use some variations of The Rope, and I'm aware of Escalator to Pips setups (but very seldom have the guts to let the profit run) and have in-cooperated some MACD stuff and some Moving Average.

I also give a little bit attention to general price candles formation (chart pattern) and general areas of resistance.


All together I trade short term mostly a couple of pips at the time.

One of my current weaknesses are:
I take profit mostly to quick instead of letting it run a bit longer and also let loosing trades run far too long.

I guess this is partially one of the side effects of not trading by strict rules.



In case you are interested: some of the more influential threads on my trading are:

Spuds:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=119483

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=22105

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=36574


http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=37111

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=130020


And also from others:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=14630

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=11854



Edit: One thread I forgot first which is also useful to understand elastic (Spud mentions it also somewhere)

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=13321

M_j thanks for the info.

M_j

Do you agree that in Spud's previous tread:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=130020

he only using those settings and rules for M5 alone on one chart?

Probably it's not a matter if I agree or do not agree with Spud.

Personally I do not trade his Lab Accident method as such but as I look at the charts I do have it also in the background of my mind.

Most of my MACD ideas are adaptation from http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=14630.

Here is a screen shot from my current charts (I use them on a quite big monitor)

This is a Demo account: I use it only for the charts and enter my trades manually at an other broker (Oanda).

Also a influential thread I forgot first to mention.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=13321

Hi MJ

I'm a...Forex stochastic student since 2 years

I'm really interested in your trading approach

PLEASE open your own thread,we will jump in

Hi swissforex,


Maybe first I have to say that the posting you quoted was from a time where I did a fully automated trading.

At that time I worked with very short time frames where the shorter time frames where of more importance:

starting with 30sec, 1min, 5min, 15min, and 30min 1hour.

I had a system which checked so many parameters: even Spud's 'Rope'

it worked quite ok but had mainly this problems: very few trades per week even though I checked many pairs.

And on the other side there where from time and time entries which more or less immediately turned wrong and hit SL.

But as I said - all together it was quite ok - the main reason why I stopped it: was that I had planned to move to an other broker and also an other important reason was that there where very few trades per week by quite small TP (15-30pips)

In the mean time I did not change my broker and so I thought to do a bit more manual trading instead of programming. Manually I have to take a different approach as it is impossible to keep track of all my automated parameter.
Spending more screen time gives me also a new feeling for it and might be of an advantage in case I do again some automated trading programming.

Anyway, at the moment for me the M1 and M5 are the main Time Frames (with some more importance given to M1) I use M15 H1 in addition.

at times I look at H4 and D1 for a bigger picture of the past situation.












To your suggestion:

At the moment I do not feel to maintain my own thread on stochastic for a couple of reason.

1. At the moment I'm trying to combine my current stochastic approach with some other ideas which takes some time to work through and to see what might be useful.



2. My current broker (Oanda) has announced the imminent release of a MetaTrader 4 trading platform.

As I use currently MT5 for visualisation I'm considering transferring this to MT4 and maybe start again playing with an automated EA (not sure yet)


3. Most importantly: Spudfyre has shared already so much on MTF Stochastic and has done such an excellent job that I do not see any future need.


For anyone really interested I would suggest to study the above (couple of posts) summary of the thread I found very helpful.


But if you feel to maintain a new thread about MT stochastic trading approach I'm willing to share what I'm doing from time to time.

In such case it would be nice if you post here a link to your thread.

Thx for your reply MJ

are u the same MJ from WWI forum?

....about opening or refreshing this thread about MTF stochastic
I don't think I'm the right guy for that
I'm a forex student,I could say a BIG expert about stochastic and renko,but still a student
And I don't think this Forum needs another thread about Spud 's MTF argument

But I wanna spend here my 2 cents,because I believe in sharing with the others

2 add ons would be nice for a solid MTF strategy:

 

1. USD strenght meter
2. Pattern recognition (Head&shoulders,Triple bottom,and so on..)

let's see what happens on this thread from now on

No.

The one thing from Spud's teaching which is very strongly impressed on my mind is: LOWER time frames BUILD HIGHER.

Everyone knows that but if one reads most threads it seems for many the opposite around. (Longer time frames lead the shorter).


Anyway, I would not be extreme on either position as even in Spud's teaching some aspect go to the (Longer time frames lead the shorter)

e.g. Elastic pull-backs

but I think that he emphasised it ( LOWER time frames BUILD HIGHER) so strongly helped me in a number of trading aspects.


*
I find the addition of MACD quite useful: partially by studying the MACD TC Pattern http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=14630 (but otherwise the H4 time frame was for Spud to much in the past exception: the First Escalator to Pips system if I recall correctly)
Also H4 Candles are build for different brokers at different times (e.g http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...92#post4320092) which gives me not all the confidence in such long time frames as basic strategy.

*
and EMA 10,21 pus SMA 50 of great additional value

mostly from the: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=11854

it seems that this combination shows a lot of why sometimes the stochastic does turn in the middle of the way to the opposite side.


(I'm still working on this combinations but it is quite obvious that this looks very helpful)



BTW: from reading through Spud's teachings it is not easily to spot that he traded a lot 'Elastic trades' - but in fact somewhere he shared that that was one of his most frequent used trading styles.

I also find them more and more interesting in contrast to bigger trend changes like 'Escalator to Pips' (even though there are cool if you can ride one).

BTW: since I started with the manual trading I trade only 1 pair: EURUSD.

thx

I think one of the weak point for this sys is the lack of entries

how many setups did u pick on EURUSD in the last month?
and is it a time consuming system?

Anyway:
I love stochastic multitimeframe indicator.
With a customized stochastic basket and EMA you can trade very well