USD/JPY Discussion

Down, I think. The $ is pulling back to support in the short term.

Hi there,
The gap is because of some hitch in the FxAccucharts software/FxSol data provider. I contacted their customer service and they assured me they are working on it. If you notice, even today's candle has opened after a gap.

Btw the gap you refer to - there is an entire week of data missing .

Measures the mood of consumers in regard to economic conditions. The reading is derived from a monthly survey that asks respondents to evaluate the prospects for the economy in the future. Higher readings point to higher consumer optimism. When consumers are optimistic they tend to purchase more goods and services, which stimulates the economy.

Forecast: 53.5

A deviation of 6 should move the UsdJpy 20 to 35 pips
A deviation of 12 should move the UsdJpy 35 to 65 pips

A 50% retracement is common in the following 3 hours. If no conflicts this entry should be good for 100% of the initial reaction.

Retail positioning for the UsdJpy stands at 1.7 as there are 1.7 buyers for every 1 seller. There is more potential for a move down given this positioning.

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last before i leave...
im quite lame in this but wanna share some thoughts...

im thinking its either a formation of wave 5's continuation or a falure resulting in B retracement.

when in doubt , stay away .... i might just do that ...

probably ranging in the short term .... will have to see how it turns out to be ...

These R also nice to consider.....






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i do not know what to say for this pair, i do not know where this pair will be going today. please anyone help me, tell me any fundamental analysis for this pair.

I'm taking a long right here off the daily pp. 50 pip stop for now with my first target @ 30 pips.

Stochastics and ma's agree in the system that I use

choppy consolidation with downside bias is in store in Asia (Tokyo is on holiday)

Taken from here.

Good trading!

Currently Long on USD/JPY @ 93.96. I believe that price on the USD/JPY will continue its upward movement made on the Weekly TF, and the dip we had on Monday and Tuesday was just a retracement into the Engulfing Bullish candle made on the Weekly TF from last week. If we look @ the Weekly Chart we can see that there are 2 Upswings – 1st is labeled with the Dark Green “Intermediate” Fib. 2nd is labeled with the Dark Turquoise “Intermediate” Fib. You will see price has bounced @ Support @ 92.13. Market Sentiment on the Weekly TF as well as the Daily TF is currently Bullish.

My sentiment is clearly bearish but want to see it out of consolidation range:

> 94.20 => UP
< 93.80 => DOWN

Already in with 2 shorts @ 94.00 and 94.20

looking to weekly chart, just befor (the most importnat) NFP next friday, inverted head and shoulder is very clear at weekly chart just a break of 94.40 is needed to confirm, i think tonight we will start the big move and next week will be trading above 96.00 and by NFP we will be near 99.00
Failing to break 94.40/60 will keep the yen in the same range 92.60 -94.20

The U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the total value of all goods and services producedby the economy. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation's currency. GDP is the broadest measure of activity and the primary gauge of the economy's health. To foreign investors, a strong economy is viewed favorably because it spurs investment opportunities in the domestic stock and bond markets. More importantly, the central bank is more likely to raise interest rates in the face of a strong and growing economy.

The Advance release is the earliest and thus tends to have the most impact.

The annualized Q/Q forecast is 3.4%
A deviation of 0.5 should move the market 20 to 40 pips
A deviation of 0.8 should move the market 40 to 90 pips

A 50%-100% retracement is common anywhere from 5minutes to 1-2 hours after the release and in the last 6 months has been very risky to trade the bounce for anything more than 10-20 pips.

The retail positioning (RPM) ratio on USDJPY is at 1.7 showing there are 1.7 buyers for every seller. The RPM is a contrarian indicator. There is some downside risk on a negative deviation.

This has been fairly consistent level throughout this week.

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Anybody else Short and showing a loss on this pair?

Will 94.25--35 be a good time to exit and take your lumps or add more to the Short position.

Pip wise I am down a bit but I entered with a reduced position so I am not realy worried at this point and I have a lot of room to massage this trade.

Will it fall below the seemingly strengening 93.80-90 support level?

Tight range on this pair. I expect this range to continue some weeks ahead, and 93-95 to play the lower and upper bounds.

Lets see if the uppermove in the stock markets continues.

Have been very profitable (and pretty safe) playing the 92-94 range the last few weeks.

and now which direction will this pair take?

Candles look overbought on the last 16 bars...the close below 9417 with increasing volume looked like a good place to go short to me...9397 target, ...16 bar range may tighten before then, so oversold may come sooner.