Trade what you see NOT what you expect | Page 1673 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Why did you start trading and what do you expect from it? 19 replies

How soon after you put on a trade do you expect to be "in the money"? 28 replies

How do you see trading - Do you see it as a means to an end? 12 replies

how long do you expect to trade? 10 replies

Trade What You See And Not What You Hope 0 replies

Attachments: Trade what you see NOT what you expect
Exit Attachments

Trade what you see NOT what you expect

  • #33,441
  • Apr 26, 2010 2:20am Apr 26, 2010 2:20am
Quoting PippiNole
Used the 15 min chart for entry based on the info from the charts I posted.

Drawdown: 11 pips on G/J and the spread on the CAD trade.

Still making my usual intraday pippage on the 3 ladies trading the great ones ( Eohater) method.

8 pairs: A/U, A/J, E/G, U/J, G/J, U/CAD,U/CHF, NZD/U

Outstanding!

Thank you Sir!

Good hunting

Regards

Lee
  • #33,442
  • Apr 26, 2010 3:21am Apr 26, 2010 3:21am
Quoting PippiNole
Used the 15 min chart for entry based on the info from the charts I posted.

Drawdown: 11 pips on G/J and the spread on the CAD trade.

Still making my usual intraday pippage on the 3 ladies trading the great ones ( Eohater) method.

8 pairs: A/U, A/J, E/G, U/J, G/J, U/CAD,U/CHF, NZD/U
Hey Pippi,

it would be nice if you can post some of your EO trades so that we can discuss about them.
  • #33,443
  • Apr 26, 2010 7:25am Apr 26, 2010 7:25am
Quoting MCFly
Hey Pippi,

it would be nice if you can post some of your EO trades so that we can discuss about them.

I will second this notion, and would be very appreciative.
  • #33,444
  • Apr 26, 2010 10:27am Apr 26, 2010 10:27am
Quoting perch
I will second this notion, and would be very appreciative.
I third this notion.
  • #33,445
  • Apr 26, 2010 10:47am Apr 26, 2010 10:47am
Ok I am posting a 4hr chart and a 15 min chart and I want yall (southern for you all) to tell me where I took a short this morning. Hint - I am on the east coast of the US and I didn't stay up all night. This is an EO type trade.

EJ 4hr chart!

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ej4h.jpg Size: 87 KB



EJ 15 min chart!

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ej15.jpg Size: 78 KB
  • #33,446
  • Apr 26, 2010 12:03pm Apr 26, 2010 12:03pm
Quoting PippiNole
Ok I am posting a 4hr chart and a 15 min chart and I want yall (southern for you all) to tell me where I took a short this morning. Hint - I am on the east coast of the US and I didn't stay up all night. This is an EO type trade.

EJ 4hr chart!

Attachment


EJ 15 min chart!

Attachment
Hi Pippi,

thx for posting. It's a bit difficult because I don't know if you missed the early or the late night. I'm rather sure you took the best entry and therefore I think you took the first shooting star which went up the wick of the 4 hr shooting star.

I hope you don't mind it when I have cycled some other entries which I think are interessting. When the first two entries occured I wasn't online what means I missed the best entry for the short. My first trade was a really stupid long entry after the hammer. I don't know why I went long but I begann the day with a loss. The second numbered cycle shows my first winner of the day. Unfortunately I closed the trade too early when the price touched sundays low. I think it was a good entry because of the 1 hr 62 ema and the 1 hr PPA. The next green cycle without a number shows a pin that I missed because I was afk. The next cycled shooting star was a very good short opportunity but I wasn't confident enough to go short because of the cycled 4 hr hammer. Instead I took a very late entry when price tested previous price action (trade #3). I mean when I went short so late I don't know why I couldn't short the shooting star much eralier or in other words when I was unconfident regarding the HTF PA I should not trade. Hwy do you think about the 4 hr hammer?
My last trade was the retest of the area where I went long.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ej15.jpg Size: 93 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: ej4h.jpg Size: 94 KB
  • #33,447
  • Apr 26, 2010 4:23pm Apr 26, 2010 4:23pm
Can't work this one out which is a little embarresing

My 4hr chart is different to yours which isn't helping, but I should still be getting this.

I woul have said it was one of the shooting stars (at open, not close) that where the previous candle cross the 35/50, but then you comment on not staying up all night blows those ideas out of the water.

Lee
  • #33,448
  • Apr 26, 2010 8:53pm Apr 26, 2010 8:53pm
I have started a new job (hopefully temporary). I just wanted to say hello to everyone and let you know I am still alive and well. I hope you guys are doing great and trading well!! I am only trading the 35cross+35 and it is working well for me. I will catch you later!!
Please ask questions and share your experiences with us all!
  • #33,449
  • Apr 27, 2010 3:30am Apr 27, 2010 3:30am
Quoting PippiNole
Ok I am posting a 4hr chart and a 15 min chart and I want yall (southern for you all) to tell me where I took a short this morning. Hint - I am on the east coast of the US and I didn't stay up all night. This is an EO type trade.

EJ 4hr chart!

Attachment


EJ 15 min chart!

Attachment
I like that!

I guess on the 4h it was the shooting star. Difficult to guess where the correpsonding candles are on the 15m as you took away the tiome line. Guess it was at the 35/50 cross-over. Btw: how do you distinguish between a 35/50-crossover and a 35/50-reversal? The criteria mentioned in the 2 pdf's are quite vague.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ej15 rev.JPG Size: 80 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: ej4h rev.JPG Size: 89 KB
  • #33,450
  • Apr 27, 2010 3:55am Apr 27, 2010 3:55am
Hi BKg ,
for the 35/50 cross trade do you wait for a pull back to small MAs like 5,10 or will u enter straight away after the candle that closed through 35 SMA.
  • #33,451
  • Apr 27, 2010 6:55am Apr 27, 2010 6:55am
Eo's system states that if the candle crosses and closes just the otherside of the two MA's with a little or no wick then you trade it back the way it comes when it closes.

ie... if you were in a bullish trend (up) and the PA reverses to cross the 35/50 in a bearish manner (down) and closes just beyond the two MA's and has no wick or a very small one, then you put a long trade in when it closes for it to continue its Bullish walk.

Depending on PA and what other MA's are above you (5/10/21) you may wish to take profit at one of these, but each trade differs immensley.


I know BKG is a fan of, and please BKG correct me if I am wrong, the 35+35 trade. Thats where the price crosses the 35 and doesnt return. When this happens you can set a PO (original rules, though you may want to watch for PA instead) for a trade that is 35 pips beyond the close of the candle that CLOSED over the 35.

So, for example, to use the above example again. If price was bullish and it reversed to cross the 35 (and/or 50), if it then failed to retrace or return to its bullish walk, then you can enter a short trade at the candle close +35 pips. So if it closes at 1.5650 then your PO would be a short trade at 1.5615 for a continuation.

In the ealier part of the thread these two trades were often combined. When price crossed and closed just beyond the 35/50 you would put a long in (assuming the same examples as above), with a SL of 35pips. You would also at the same time enter a PO for a short trade at the SL of your long trade.

The view was that if PA had moved 35 beyond the crossover then it was likely to be continuing its journey.

Lee

ps. I am sure BKG will post his comments too, but I gather he does fairly well out of this trade
  • #33,452
  • Apr 27, 2010 7:10am Apr 27, 2010 7:10am
hi Lee,

Thanks for the explanation. My question is about the 35 + 35 trade . Because i guess BKG normally wait for the candle to close beyond 35 pips rather than setting PO. I may be wrong ,henc BKGs advice on this is needed.
  • #33,453
  • Apr 27, 2010 7:28am Apr 27, 2010 7:28am
Quoting PippiNole
Ok I am posting a 4hr chart and a 15 min chart and I want yall (southern for you all) to tell me where I took a short this morning. Hint - I am on the east coast of the US and I didn't stay up all night. This is an EO type trade.

EJ 4hr chart!

Attachment


EJ 15 min chart!

Attachment

Being as new as I am - I don't know - I see validity on each of the answers already.
  • #33,454
  • Apr 27, 2010 7:56am Apr 27, 2010 7:56am
Quoting fx_magic
hi Lee,

Thanks for the explanation. My question is about the 35 + 35 trade . Because i guess BKG normally wait for the candle to close beyond 35 pips rather than setting PO. I may be wrong ,henc BKGs advice on this is needed.
This trade was explained to me by someone experienced on here, but I'll understand if you want for BKG to answer it, after all, he may actualy have a better variation of it.

However, the trade is to be taken 35 pips from the candle that last closed beyond the 35, therefore in order for you to know where the 35 pip PO is going to be it has to be taken from a close. If you try and take it from an active candle, ie its wick, then the wick may increase after you enter your PO and the wick for all we know may actualy end up beyond your PO.

It's also 'refered' to in the worksheets. It doesn't so much say that you should place a PO, however it does state that if price has moved 35 pips beyond the last candle that closed beyond the 35 then it's likely to continue.

As I said before, I take no offence whatsoever in you wanting clarification from others. Though, you may have to be patient as this thread is very quiet recently.

Regards

Lee
  • #33,455
  • Apr 27, 2010 8:36am Apr 27, 2010 8:36am
Please never get offended dear friend...i jus need clarification thats alls ..your help on posting anwsers for my question is greatly appreciated...cheers
  • #33,456
  • Apr 27, 2010 9:38am Apr 27, 2010 9:38am
Quoting leemonk
Eo's system states that if the candle crosses and closes just the otherside of the two MA's with a little or no wick then you trade it back the way it comes when it closes.

ie... if you were in a bullish trend (up) and the PA reverses to cross the 35/50 in a bearish manner (down) and closes just beyond the two MA's and has no wick or a very small one, then you put a long trade in when it closes for it to continue its Bullish walk.

...
WE're lost without the pros!

Based on the 2 pdf's outlining the method I understood there's 2 types of 35/50 trades:

(1) 35/50 reversal: Irrespective of whether the previous trand was bullish or bearish but usually during a more sidewards mode a candle will cross both the 35 and the 50 ma. at the close of this candle you immdeiately open a trade in the opposite direction with the sl slightly above/belove the prvious candle's hi/lo. you cover when the price again touches the 35 or 50 ma.

(2) 35/50 spike thru: everything like in the above but this time the candle which crosses the ma's closes around 35 pips away from the ma's. in this case you don't trade for the reversal as in (1) but for a continuation.

EO come back! We need you!
  • #33,457
  • Apr 27, 2010 11:00am Apr 27, 2010 11:00am
Quoting AnonYmos
WE're lost without the pros!

Based on the 2 pdf's outlining the method I understood there's 2 types of 35/50 trades:

(1) 35/50 reversal: Irrespective of whether the previous trand was bullish or bearish but usually during a more sidewards mode a candle will cross both the 35 and the 50 ma. at the close of this candle you immdeiately open a trade in the opposite direction with the sl slightly above/belove the prvious candle's hi/lo. you cover when the price again touches the 35 or 50 ma.

(2) 35/50 spike thru: everything like in the above but...
This is a very interesting point. It's a conversation I have fairly regularly with someone else here and we are both in agreement. The 35+35 trade is NOT in the manual. I do not know if this was an oversight or intentional.

Intimiation of continuation of PA when it reaches 35 pips past the last crossed candle is in the manual somewhere and it is also refered to in the daily worksheets.

I am slowly working my way through the WHOLE thread to ensure I get all I can from here. I can only recomend that if you have the time, you do the same. I have made 72 seperate notes (but Ii am only 250 pages into the thread) which are either good confirmation of whats in the manual or which detail things that are not in the manual.

Regards

Lee
  • #33,458
  • Apr 27, 2010 11:27am Apr 27, 2010 11:27am
Quoting leemonk
This is a very interesting point. It's a conversation I have fairly regularly with someone else here and we are both in agreement. The 35+35 trade is NOT in the manual. I do not know if this was an oversight or intentional.

Intimiation of continuation of PA when it reaches 35 pips past the last crossed candle is in the manual somewhere and it is also refered to in the daily worksheets.

I am slowly working my way through the WHOLE thread to ensure I get all I can from here. I can only recomend that if you have the time, you do the same. I have...
Quoting myself here from a post in Ken's Continuing success thread (recommened btw). It's true that the 35-pip rule as such is nowhere noted in the manuals. But it seems to be used to distinguish these 2 types of 35/50-trades (reversal and spike-thru).

The original pdf says:

"b) 15m-35-50MA cross and reverse:
When you see a close of 15m candle through the 35 and 50 with a short wick, trade a reversal on the opening of the next candle. In chart below green arrow points to candle that breaks through the MA’s and the red arrow points to candle you would go short on opening of."

and

"e) 15m-35-50MA spike through
The trade was really easy to take, the resistance and the major spike was through the 15m 35/50. If she spikes that hard through, even if she closes that high, she's going to come back down to atleast touch the 15m 35/50 before continuing her journey. A positive exit is about 90% in my eyes. I've not done the math, but it works."

And the 2d pdf says:

"There are actually 2 different trades that take place here.
The first is a reversal trade and price changes direction on the retracement and returns in the direction from where it came.
The second is a breakout trade, the price will sometimes only come back to the MA's as a retest then continue in the direction it was heading. This trade is normally found when the price isn't retracing but is trending in that direction and just crossing the MA's not pulling back to them (examples will
follow). Also sometimes as in all trading the retraces fail at the fib levels and price can continue also.
One way to get an idea if the trade is possibly a retrace reversal or a breakout retest is by how far the SINGLE candle went past the MA's before closing. A reversal normally close pretty close to the MA's, the breakout can close as far as 35 pips away. That is normally considered a clean break
of a line at that distance. The trade is still good but a tighter stop would be used and you would consider the touch of the MA's as the possible end of the trade. A retest.
So to see a good 35/50 coming up look for a retracement the leg or swing that price is approaching the MA's should be about ½ the length of the leg it come from the top or bottom off. Looks like a reversed check mark  If price isn't retracing then look for possible retest of the MA's as your 35/50 cross trade."

You are right about going thru the entire thread. Just a loooot of work.
  • #33,459
  • Apr 27, 2010 1:31pm Apr 27, 2010 1:31pm
Quoting AnonYmos
Quoting myself here from a post in Ken's Continuing success thread (recommened btw). It's true that the 35-pip rule as such is nowhere noted in the manuals. But it seems to be used to distinguish these 2 types of 35/50-trades (reversal and spike-thru).

The original pdf says:

"b) 15m-35-50MA cross and reverse:
When you see a close of 15m candle through the 35 and 50 with a short wick, trade a reversal on the opening of the next candle. In chart below green arrow points to candle that breaks through the MA’s and the red arrow points to candle...

AnonYmos - Now I know I need lots more studying - This is a nice and understandable answer - from which I am gathering is a culmination of a few posts in this thread - --I remember reading bits and pieces of what you've stated here -- -but I still haven't put 2 and 2 together to get to 4.

Again -Nice post. back to reading/studying for me. And I'll need to check out Kens thread as well
  • #33,460
  • Apr 27, 2010 5:58pm Apr 27, 2010 5:58pm
Quoting MCFly
Hi Pippi,

thx for posting. It's a bit difficult because I don't know if you missed the early or the late night. I'm rather sure you took the best entry and therefore I think you took the first shooting star which went up the wick of the 4 hr shooting star.

I hope you don't mind it when I have cycled some other entries which I think are interessting. When the first two entries occured I wasn't online what means I missed the best entry for the short. My first trade was a really stupid long entry after the hammer. I don't know why I went long...

This is a quick response due to being extremely busy today. You were correct in your analysis of my entry near the top of the 15min wick (126.11). Before every trading session I check the HTF charts and saw we had a pin on the 4hr chart so I was looking to take a short up the 4hr wick.

I will have to respond to your other trades a little later.
48 traders viewing now