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  • #741
  • Apr 25, 2010 8:30pm Apr 25, 2010 8:30pm
Hey Marc,
Since you are a big follower of AU, I thought I would run my first UIRP (Uncovered Interest Rate Parity) Condition analysis on AU. For UIRP equation E(FXn) = FX0((1+IR AU)/(1+IR US)^n

FX0(not) is equal to spot
E(FXn) is equal to expected rate at time n
N is equal to time period
IR AU is equal to the AU Interest Rate
IR US is equal to the US Interest Rate

Using .0833 as my n or 1 month the E(FX(.0833)) is at .931031
2 month is .934071
3 month is .937121

This is all assuming no IR changes.

I just got bored and though I would test out 1 month AU rate
  • #742
  • Apr 25, 2010 8:48pm Apr 25, 2010 8:48pm
Quoting Clouds
What about this? (Current quote price .7195)

nzd/usd

Attachment
Nice chart. NU found friction on "00" 72
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: nu.gif Size: 24 KB
  • #743
  • Apr 25, 2010 11:52pm Apr 25, 2010 11:52pm
London session starting, be interesting to see if volumes push UJ through M30 Asc Triangle
  • #744
  • Apr 26, 2010 2:14am Apr 26, 2010 2:14am
AU trade at TP, similar situation with NU (thanks clouds)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: addd.jpg Size: 189 KB
  • #745
  • Apr 26, 2010 2:14am Apr 26, 2010 2:14am
Quoting Saxon
AU trade at TP, similar situation with NU (thanks clouds)
Traded off "00". Worked well
  • #746
  • Apr 26, 2010 3:19am Apr 26, 2010 3:19am
A view of a UJ formation
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: jj.gif Size: 48 KB
  • #747
  • Apr 26, 2010 3:23am Apr 26, 2010 3:23am
A good example of why I trade a lot of "00"
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 00.gif Size: 65 KB
  • #748
  • Apr 26, 2010 3:34am Apr 26, 2010 3:34am
Quoting Saxon
AU trade at TP, similar situation with NU (thanks clouds)
20 pip TP on AU was right on, AU testing "00" now, might break this time. No trade on this "00" for me
  • #749
  • Apr 26, 2010 3:37am Apr 26, 2010 3:37am
Morning/evening all! Hope some of you got some of the eu short trade, for now there is rejection off the 3300 level.
  • #750
  • Apr 26, 2010 3:40am Apr 26, 2010 3:40am
Quoting calderone
Morning/evening all! Hope some of you got some of the eu short trade, for now there is rejection off the 3300 level.
No EU for me. Missed it, also missed 30 pip 1.33 "00" bounce.
  • #751
  • Apr 26, 2010 3:43am Apr 26, 2010 3:43am
Quoting Saxon
No EU for me. Missed it, also missed 30 pip 1.33 "00" bounce.
Well, I missed the bounce because I was not in the right mindframe (just getting coffee). lol

Much more alert now.
  • #752
  • Apr 26, 2010 3:44am Apr 26, 2010 3:44am
Going to run some charts and hit the sack for a few hours. I love days when there is not too much news, my favorite (Rational S/R). Good luck with the trades. I'll be back in a bit.
  • #753
  • Apr 26, 2010 3:46am Apr 26, 2010 3:46am
Quoting calderone
Well, I missed the bounce because I was not in the right mindframe (just getting coffee). lol

Much more alert now.
Haha, I know the feeling I drank my gallon and am going to sleep some off. You got on right when I am getting off. Hopefully there will be some crossover in a few hours and we can trade together
  • #754
  • Apr 26, 2010 3:54am Apr 26, 2010 3:54am
Quoting Saxon
Haha, I know the feeling I drank my gallon and am going to sleep some off. You got on right when I am getting off. Hopefully there will be some crossover in a few hours and we can trade together
  • #755
  • Apr 26, 2010 4:09am Apr 26, 2010 4:09am
Just got to my desk. See you in a while Saxon!
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #756
  • Apr 26, 2010 4:12am Apr 26, 2010 4:12am
A/U trade... I'm looking for a candle on the H4 (or H1) to give me a reason to go short.... because my indicators support an overbought condition on H4 and PA is obviously consolidating on H1.

Price may reach upper TL at 9310 before heading south but my TP will be the bottom TL at 9200 and beyond.
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #757
  • Apr 26, 2010 4:16am Apr 26, 2010 4:16am
Quoting MarcVUM
A/U trade... I'm looking for a candle on the H4 (or H1) to give me a reason to go short.... because my indicators support an overbought condition on H4 and PA is obviously consolidating on H1.

Price may reach upper TL at 9310 before heading south but my TP will be the bottom TL at 9200 and beyond.
Keep the daily candle in mind.
  • #758
  • Apr 26, 2010 4:18am Apr 26, 2010 4:18am
Quoting calderone
Keep the daily candle in mind.
For sure.
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #759
  • Apr 26, 2010 4:24am Apr 26, 2010 4:24am
I got it. Thanks for looking out guys. Here is the reason I am looking for that short though... I do use Stochs as one of two indicators... on the H4 she is very correct the majority of the time.

edit: looking at it more closely now... it may stay above the Black MA there and consolidate a bit before continuing higher. hmm.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: au.jpg Size: 149 KB
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #760
  • Apr 26, 2010 12:42pm Apr 26, 2010 12:42pm
Quoting MarcVUM
Just got to my desk. See you in a while Saxon!
Hey, sorry i missed you too, I just got back on and am setup hunting right now. I should be on for the next 16-18 hours.
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