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  • #230,541
  • Apr 24, 2010 7:17pm Apr 24, 2010 7:17pm
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE63N18020100424
  • #230,542
  • Apr 24, 2010 7:42pm Apr 24, 2010 7:42pm
Quoting Forexfsa
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE63N18020100424

One of the obstacles to getting aid to Greece is that any money from Germany -- the biggest single national contributor to the rescue package -- requires parliamentary approval.
There is strong public opposition in Germany to the aid package which is a big issue ahead of a key regional election on May 9, 10 days before Greece has to repay a bond.

Many Germans are angry at the prospect of bailing out Greece, which has racked up a massive budget deficit and admitted past debt data were inaccurate. Some German newspapers on Saturday said the only option for Greece was to drop out of the single currency euro zone.

GERMAN ANGER
British Finance Minister Alistair Darling, asked by reporters if Germany was holding up a speedy resolution of the Greek crisis, noted Berlin was not represented at the meetings in Washington at the ministerial level.
  • #230,543
  • Apr 24, 2010 7:44pm Apr 24, 2010 7:44pm
Quoting Hell7
Are we finally ready to break above the yellow TL and race towards my target?
Hi
Nothing from u for Whileeeeeeeeeeeeeee

Looks consolidation between 1.05 - 1.0950
I hate consolidation (No trend to follow)
  • #230,544
  • Apr 24, 2010 7:52pm Apr 24, 2010 7:52pm
  •  MarkH
  • | Joined Oct 2009 | Status: "Show Me The Money" - Jerry McGuire | 222 Posts
I have been watching this with great curiosity. What happens to the Euro if:

(a) Greece does drop out and resorts back to their old currency? How would that effect the Euro? Good or bad?
(b) Greece is bailed out with a new 45 Bln. loan?


Quoting Forexfsa
One of the obstacles to getting aid to Greece is that any money from Germany -- the biggest single national contributor to the rescue package -- requires parliamentary approval.
There is strong public opposition in Germany to the aid package which is a big issue ahead of a key regional election on May 9, 10 days before Greece has to repay a bond.

Many Germans are angry at the prospect of bailing out Greece, which has racked up a massive budget deficit and admitted past debt data were inaccurate. Some German newspapers on Saturday said the only...
  • #230,545
  • Edited 8:44pm Apr 24, 2010 8:18pm | Edited 8:44pm
Quoting MarkH
I have been watching this with great curiosity. What happens to the Euro if:

(a) Greece does drop out and resorts back to their old currency? How would that effect the Euro? Good or bad?
(b) Greece is bailed out with a new 45 Bln. loan?
I think if greece did drop out of the euro , euro will still be weak until all the PIGS dropped out which would take at least 12 months so My educated guess

Getting the aid package for greece is no real big deal But Has set a PRECEDENT for other PIGS to get CASH from IMF/ECB AKA Germany ,Germany must be asking how long is a piece of string

Some are saying this is a strategic plan by greece to obtain financial support from ECB/imf

Will this rescue package open the door for other PIGS to Put up their Hand for emergency funding??

Who will be next spain, portugual?

Crunch time will be if they dont meet their first KPI's after they receive their refinanced funds

I am greek australian living in Australia

Greece is a lazy country dont like to work expect handouts from government and parents

Australia is doing so well and considered the lucky country as we have a goods and services tax of 10% on all goods and services so people cant avoide getting away from not paying tax

This saved us in the GFC

Greece needs a GST its pretty simple really

Doctors in Greece declaring yearly taxable income of 10k what a joke

The quicker greek citizens realise they cant rip off the system by not paying any tax the quicker Greece will be on the road to recovery

Can they do it time will tell

if they dont worst case scenario a civil war will errupt in greece

Parity is Coming in eur/usd next 12 to 24 months
  • #230,546
  • Apr 24, 2010 8:36pm Apr 24, 2010 8:36pm
  •  MarkH
  • | Joined Oct 2009 | Status: "Show Me The Money" - Jerry McGuire | 222 Posts
I'm not an expert on fundamentals, rather technical analysis. However, my simplistic thoughts are that the IMF/ECB will *have* to bail them out. If they don't, wouldn't this put the EURO in jeopardy of existence?


Quoting Forexfsa
I think if greece did drop out of the euro , euro will still be weak until all the PIGS dropped out which would take at least 12 months so My educated guess

Getting the aid package for greece is no real big deal But Has set a PRECEDENT for other PIGS to get CASH from IMF/ECB AKA Germany ,Germany must be asking how long is a piece of string

Some are saying this is a strategic plan by greece to obtain financial support from ECB/imf

Will this rescue package open the door for other PIGS to Put up their Hand for emergency funding??

Who will...
  • #230,547
  • Edited 8:58pm Apr 24, 2010 8:47pm | Edited 8:58pm
Quoting MarkH
I'm not an expert on fundamentals, rather technical analysis. However, my simplistic thoughts are that the IMF/ECB will *have* to bail them out. If they don't, wouldn't this put the EURO in jeopardy of existence?
Of coarse they have to Bail them out they have no choice

However what happens when they get in the SH$T the 2nd time, when other countries start asking for emergency funding in the next 12 months

Logically The Euro is Dead whilst PIGS are in the currency

Ecb/Imf throwing good money after bad

The crux of the problem is many of these countries entered the euro Fraudently
  • #230,548
  • Apr 24, 2010 9:06pm Apr 24, 2010 9:06pm
Tornado hit USA, killing 10 in Missisippi, damages everywhere.
Great Bodies are Engineered not Born
  • #230,549
  • Apr 24, 2010 9:35pm Apr 24, 2010 9:35pm
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/bre...-1225857912465

But Germany, the eurozone's biggest member, has balked at the idea of a bailout without substantial budget cuts.
The government of Chancellor Angela Merkel has demanded that Greece take extra economic measures in 2011-2012, and says a failure to do so would threaten the stability of the Euro.
German leaders, facing a key regional election in May, are under intense pressure to hold a hard line against Greece, with some members of Merkel's conservative Christian Democrats bloc calling for Athens to be kicked out of the eurozone.
  • #230,550
  • Apr 24, 2010 9:39pm Apr 24, 2010 9:39pm
Quoting RichLadyFX
Tornado hit USA, killing 10 in Missisippi, damages everywhere.
Morning to all .
very sorry to hear that , indeed! nature still selecting who to kill , which area to damage & everything. we are very helpless at all & every time.
God bless all of us.
fontu
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #230,551
  • Apr 24, 2010 9:40pm Apr 24, 2010 9:40pm
Greece gdp 350 million.

eurozone gdp 13 trillion

so what is the fuss about ? Greece is really nothing in the overall scheme of the eurozone.

weakening and accumulation of euro on weekly on all dips by the long term holders is what the fuss is about .

Not saying this will happen as market is really nuts right now , but look at 2009 low and the pattern , just a wee dip under support and it never looked back , kind of a similar pattern as last week

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Quoting Forexfsa
I think if greece did drop out of the euro , euro will still be weak until all the PIGS dropped out which would take at least 12 months so My educated guess

Getting the aid package for greece is no real big deal But Has set a PRECEDENT for other PIGS to get CASH from IMF/ECB AKA Germany ,Germany must be asking how long is a piece of string

Some are saying this is a strategic plan by greece to obtain financial support from ECB/imf

Will this rescue package open the door for other PIGS to Put up their Hand for emergency funding??

Who will be next...
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #230,552
  • Apr 24, 2010 9:46pm Apr 24, 2010 9:46pm
China sold @ 1.3390 to 1.3400 Us close Friday should be an interesting Open this week#
  • #230,553
  • Apr 24, 2010 9:52pm Apr 24, 2010 9:52pm
Quoting fontu
Morning to all .
very sorry to hear that , indeed! nature still selecting who to kill , which area to damage & everything. we are very helpless at all & every time.
God bless all of us.
fontu
Thanks for everyone's thoughts and prayers. Most damage done in Mississippi. About 35 homes destroyed and 10 killed. The storms have now moved into Alabama and we have had wind damage in the state however, here in Northeast Alabama most of the storms are starting to die down just before they reach where I am at. I hope everyone has had a good week trading and hope next week will be more of the same. I am new to the forum and haven't posted much since I am still under the delayed "Newbie" category. Most of the time the topic has moved on before my response gets posted.

I really do enjoy your insights Fontu and follow you closely when you post. Please keep it up.
  • #230,554
  • Apr 24, 2010 9:53pm Apr 24, 2010 9:53pm
Quoting malcolmb14
Greece gdp 350 million.

eurozone gdp 13 trillion

so what is the fuss about ? Greece is really nothing in the overall scheme of the eurozone.

weakening and accumulation of euro on weekly on all dips by the long term holders is what the fuss is about .

Not saying this will happen as market is really nuts right now , but look at 2009 low and the pattern , just a wee dip under support and it never looked back , kind of a similar pattern as last week

Attachment
Malc,

The last line of that post you quoted still has some meaning..."who will be next?"

Yes, Greece is only a small amount of total EU GDP but add spain in for one then portugal, then ireland and italy and you're getting somewhere...

These countries have bills coming up soon too, I'm sure you're aware. You know volume and I'm still early in my VSA learning but the fundamentals are there for a euro fall..almost no way around it...

How can these guys "the pros" really want to buy euros? I understand the whole push it up now to sell higher but I'm sure they already have...the ones that can go short(I mean the ones that it's not their job to go long) How many hedge funds do you think missed out @ 1.45, 1.40 etc? I mean we had bounces..


I don't see how any "pro" sees the euro as being undervalued?

We've broken some pretty major technical support lines slowly but surely, the monthly looks like this will be another down month...
The other big hold up imo are the elections in Europe...these guys won't probably actually hand over any cash until after the elections..

I think they hold this up till the last second to keep their political seats...greece bills due on may 19th i think? then portugal has some due on the 20th..

The elections are around the 10th of May I believe(read a lot of news today so can't remember all the exact details).

Then the Germans still have to approve the money in their court system I'm pretty sure...

I'm still just trading intra-day but it's fun to discuss...
  • #230,555
  • Apr 24, 2010 9:54pm Apr 24, 2010 9:54pm
  •  MarkH
  • | Joined Oct 2009 | Status: "Show Me The Money" - Jerry McGuire | 222 Posts
Do you have a link showing this?

Thanks,

Mark

Quoting Forexfsa
China sold @ 1.3390 to 1.3400 Us close Friday should be an interesting Open this week#
  • #230,556
  • Apr 24, 2010 9:59pm Apr 24, 2010 9:59pm
Quoting malcolmb14
Greece gdp 350 million.

eurozone gdp 13 trillion

so what is the fuss about ? Greece is really nothing in the overall scheme of the eurozone.

weakening and accumulation of euro on weekly on all dips by the long term holders is what the fuss is about .

Not saying this will happen as market is really nuts right now , but look at 2009 low and the pattern , just a wee dip under support and it never looked back , kind of a similar pattern as last week

Attachment
Another thing Malc, even looking back at your chart you posted there...regardless of last time we had the same "look"...

Check out what's happened every time in the past that we've come down and tested this level 1.3300ish on big tf...when we made it through, we continued down...especially weekly candles...it may look like the 09 bottom but this exact level has been tested for sure on the way down in the past...we've never really stopped at this level in the past and then gone back up that I can see?
We all said that there had NEVER been so many dojis in a row and that every time there had ever been anywhere close to 4 or 5 it was a major turning point...not this time. No more rounded bottom either...tick tock
  • #230,557
  • Apr 24, 2010 10:02pm Apr 24, 2010 10:02pm
Quoting MarkH
Do you have a link showing this?

Thanks,

Mark
http://www.forexlive.com/

That little tirade helped EUR/USD hit a session high 1.3400 where it topped out, presently back at 1.3375. Talk China sold up at 1.3390/00.
  • #230,558
  • Apr 24, 2010 10:06pm Apr 24, 2010 10:06pm
S&P to push higher and test the key 1230-1235 resistance level. The result of the test of the critical S&P level will in my opinion will be VERY telling for the future direction of risk. Also, two very important markets have shown the possibility of an ending diagonal in the 5th wave positions on the daily charts. The US 10 yr bond yield looks to be in wave 5 of the 5th wave ending diagonal pointing towards test and abrupt failure of 4.00-4.10%. Similarly, EURUSD looks to be in wave 4 up within the 5th wave ending diagonal, with a final test in 5-of-5 down to 1.3000 to complete the entire pattern. The successful completion of these patterns will have significant implications for the intermarket relationships of the 4 major asset classes
http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/misc/progress.gif
  • #230,559
  • Apr 24, 2010 10:29pm Apr 24, 2010 10:29pm
I hope you give credit to the person the wrote this.
  • #230,560
  • Apr 24, 2010 10:31pm Apr 24, 2010 10:31pm
Quoting Forexfsa
S&P to push higher and test the key 1230-1235 resistance level. The result of the test of the critical S&P level will in my opinion will be VERY telling for the future direction of risk. Also, two very important markets have shown the possibility of an ending diagonal in the 5th wave positions on the daily charts. The US 10 yr bond yield looks to be in wave 5 of the 5th wave ending diagonal pointing towards test and abrupt failure of 4.00-4.10%. Similarly, EURUSD looks to be in wave 4 up within the 5th wave ending diagonal, with a final test in...
Hope you give credit for these comments.
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