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Simple H1 GBPUSD EA

  • #321
  • Apr 22, 2010 5:07am Apr 22, 2010 5:07am
I have changed v3 by adding another fractal test and it gives much better results.

In v3 we used 9SMA to determine the trend and used an M15 fractal to confirm.

In v5 I have the same trend determination but I wait for an M5 fractal to find an entry point.

This has also enabled me to reduce the stoploss slightly (from 165 to 140) and increase the first order TP & TSL to 22.

Overall the number of losing trades has been reduced considerable.

Here are the two charts for comparison, the first is v3 and the second is v5.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: SimpleGBPUSD_EAv3.gif Size: 10 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: SimpleGBPUSD_EAv5.gif Size: 9 KB
  • #322
  • Apr 22, 2010 5:11am Apr 22, 2010 5:11am
Here are the v5 results and the .mq4 and .ex4 files:

Bars in test 6642
Ticks modelled 13235444
Modelling quality 90.00%
Mismatched charts errors 1
Initial deposit 2000.00
Total net profit 4688.38
Gross profit 6928.44
Gross loss -2240.06
Profit factor 3.09
Expected payoff 14.93
Absolute drawdown 69.20
Maximal drawdown 500.70 (8.05%)
Relative drawdown 10.45% (331.00)
Total trades 314
Short positions (won %) 144 (94.44%)
Long positions (won %) 170 (95.29%)
Profit trades (% of total) 298 (94.90%)
Loss trades (% of total) 16 (5.10%)
Largest
profit trade 84.00
loss trade -140.03
Average
profit trade 23.25
loss trade -140.00
Maximum
consecutive wins (profit in money) 60 (1364.48)
consecutive losses (loss in money) 2 (-280.06)
Maximal
consecutive profit (count of wins) 1364.48 (60)
consecutive loss (count of losses) -280.06 (2)
Average
consecutive wins 33
consecutive losses 2
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 Simple_H1_GBPUSD_EAv5.ex4   17 KB | 494 downloads
File Type: mq4 Simple_H1_GBPUSD_EAv5.mq4   17 KB | 556 downloads
  • #323
  • Apr 22, 2010 5:23am Apr 22, 2010 5:23am
Hi Geoff,

it keeps getting better! by the time we get to version 11 i will be picking you up with my jet in England to go to your private Caribbean island!

now on the serious side. i am thinking of starting the dukascopy data download procedure so that i can backtest thoroughly your EA (mine too, by the way).

it's a completely unknown process for me so i see some hard work ahead. at least a lot of processing hours for sure.

i intend to buy a big HD to store the data but i have one question to the local MT4 experts: if i have all the data ready to process on an external harddrive can MT4 use that harddrive to bactest the EAs? because i can't have a bigger hd on my pc.

will i have to install MT4 on the external HardDrive to do it?
dreams do come true.
  • #324
  • Edited 5:46am Apr 22, 2010 5:28am | Edited 5:46am
Here are my settings for V5:

TP 22, SL 140, TSL 22, start time 1:00 (Alpari time) start of Tokyo session.
and 10 SMA gives better results than 9 SMA!

There was another peak in the optimisation graph where the profit was much larger but so was the drawdown and the number of losing trades!

TP 45, SL 140, TSL 45, same start time.

Enjoy!
  • #325
  • Apr 22, 2010 5:38am Apr 22, 2010 5:38am
Attached is the full V5 report.
Attached File(s)
File Type: zip New Compressed (zipped) Folder.zip   117 KB | 444 downloads
  • #326
  • Apr 22, 2010 5:49am Apr 22, 2010 5:49am
Aww crap, GBPUSD collapsed and the opened trade of v3 would have become a winner in the end.
  • #327
  • Apr 22, 2010 5:52am Apr 22, 2010 5:52am
Quoting Emanuele
Aww crap, GBPUSD collapsed and the opened trade of v3 would have become a winner in the end.
GBPUSD the bouncing ball of currency pairs!
  • #328
  • Apr 22, 2010 5:56am Apr 22, 2010 5:56am
I can fly a glider but I think I am too old to switch to jets!

Regarding the Dukascopy thingy I would suspect that you would need to load MT4 on to the bigger hard-drive so that the platform is in the same place as the data.

But I am no expert!
Quoting wannaberich
Hi Geoff,

it keeps getting better! by the time we get to version 11 i will be picking you up with my jet in England to go to your private Caribbean island!

now on the serious side. i am thinking of starting the dukascopy data download procedure so that i can backtest thoroughly your EA (mine too, by the way).

it's a completely unknown process for me so i see some hard work ahead. at least a lot of processing hours for sure.

i intend to buy a big HD to store the data but i have one question to the local MT4 experts: if i have all the data ready...
  • #329
  • Apr 22, 2010 5:58am Apr 22, 2010 5:58am
Ok, I'm switching from v3 to v5. Thanks for improving your toy, geoff.
  • #330
  • Apr 22, 2010 6:01am Apr 22, 2010 6:01am
Quoting Emanuele
Ok, I'm switching from v3 to v5. Thanks for improving your toy, geoff.
Great!

Can you see any advantage in hiding the TP and SL from the broker?

I was asked to do this with v2 and I got it working ok!
  • #331
  • Apr 22, 2010 6:14am Apr 22, 2010 6:14am
Another curious regular occurence is that around 13hrs gmt (when New York opens), if the pairs like the GU and EU have been going in one direction for the trading period from London opens until then, the trend more often than not reverses, at least by 10 to 15pips.

So for example, if GU has been in a clear uptrend from when London opens until 13hrs gmt, then when NY opens the pair will reverse by around 10 to 15pips shortly after NY opens, and vicer verca. Again this is true more often than not, but it should be tradeble with a very tight sl as soon as the reverse is noticed.

If you can change your EA to test the above, it would be interesting to see if this strategy has any legs.
  • #332
  • Edited 6:52am Apr 22, 2010 6:26am | Edited 6:52am
Quoting farizu
Another curious regular occurence is that around 13hrs gmt (when New York opens), if the pairs like the GU and EU have been going in one direction for the trading period from London opens until then, the trend more often than not reverses, at least by 10 to 15pips.

So for example, if GU has been in a clear uptrend from when London opens until 13hrs gmt, then when NY opens the pair will reverse by around 10 to 15pips shortly after NY opens, and vicer verca. Again this is true more often than not, but it should be tradeble with a very tight sl as...
You are correct, I have noticed this!

I am a bit busy with the current version at the moment but we may be able to add this at a later date ....
maybe a Phase 2 Simple GBPUSD EA!

I certainly hope it reverses at NY open today, I'm carrying a long at 1.5440. lol!
  • #333
  • Apr 22, 2010 6:45am Apr 22, 2010 6:45am
Quoting sanyhuis
I've got 3 & 4 running. Two nights in a row v3 picked up two trade but nothing last night.
v4 has yet to trade.
He's smiling but not trading.
Is that a nice smile or a cruel smile?
  • #334
  • Apr 22, 2010 6:50am Apr 22, 2010 6:50am
Quoting geoffb65
Is that a nice smile or a cruel smile?
I would take a second look but he's not there anymore. He got replaced with v5!
Thanks, Geoff. Good show.
  • #335
  • Apr 22, 2010 6:54am Apr 22, 2010 6:54am
Quoting sanyhuis
I would take a second look but he's not there anymore. He got replaced with v5!
Thanks, Geoff. Good show.
Good!

I'm very pleased with v5, I don't think it can be improved much more!

Though it shows 16 losing trades in 12 months that is actually only 8 losing days in the whole year, I think I can live with say one losing trade per month.
  • #336
  • Apr 22, 2010 7:10am Apr 22, 2010 7:10am
Geoff and freinds,

Just an FYI. I have been using v4 on both the GU and EU pairs as they seem to track similarly. It has triggered winning trades for the past 2 nights. I am very please so far. I have it set with defaults settings and starting at the Tokyo open on both pairs. My broker is InterbankFX.

I will continue to test and I beleive I will switch over to version 5 now since it shows improvement

Thanks so much Geoff

SirWolf
Believe and Achieve!
  • #337
  • Apr 22, 2010 7:15am Apr 22, 2010 7:15am
Quoting sirwolf
Geoff and freinds,

Just an FYI. I have been using v4 on both the GU and EU pairs as they seem to track similarly. It has triggered winning trades for the past 2 nights. I am very please so far. I have it set with defaults settings and starting at the Tokyo open on both pairs. My broker is InterbankFX.

I will continue to test and I beleive I will switch over to version 5 now since it shows improvement

Thanks so much Geoff

SirWolf
Thank you SirWolf!

I haven't had time to try it on other pairs so your EU test is very interesting for me!
  • #338
  • Apr 22, 2010 7:17am Apr 22, 2010 7:17am
It looks great. In 3 days v4 never took a trade. V3 took them all, maybe that's the reason. I'm looking forward to v5.
I'm hung up in the same P/D trade you are. I'm still waiting for 13H reversal.
  • #339
  • Apr 22, 2010 7:22am Apr 22, 2010 7:22am
By the way, I have v3 on E/D and it trades great.
  • #340
  • Apr 22, 2010 7:25am Apr 22, 2010 7:25am
Quoting geoffb65
Here are my settings for V5:

TP 22, SL 140, TSL 22, start time 1:00 (Alpari time) start of Tokyo session.
and 10 SMA gives better results than 9 SMA!

There was another peak in the optimisation graph where the profit was much larger but so was the drawdown and the number of losing trades!

TP 45, SL 140, TSL 45, same start time.

Enjoy!
Is the SMA a parameter? I see an Fast EMA parameter. The only paramter I am chagning is the time. Everything else I am leaving as the defaault. Do I need to change the SMA somehow?
Believe and Achieve!
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