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  • #227,281
  • Apr 17, 2010 1:18pm Apr 17, 2010 1:18pm
Quoting malcolmb14
He does not exist ...

I had a buddy who was big into this conspiracy stuff. He showed me a guy that said about 7 years back that come 5 years time we would be running around in the middle east looking for a man in a cave that executed a terrorist attack in the US .

Guess what since then that same guy that gave the prophecy ' committed suicide'
You're scaring me again
  • #227,282
  • Apr 17, 2010 1:22pm Apr 17, 2010 1:22pm
Quoting malcolmb14
Hence the ghost towns forming all over the US.
This just hyperbole. There are places that have been hard hit and there are places that were not. And there are hot spots that have maintained positive growth throughout. I have residential projects getting built in WA state right now and demand for new housing is strong, Banks are lending. They have been tight on large projects but that is loosening up.

Bad news sells doughnuts & so that is what people chow down on. But there are all kinds of positive signs to be found if anyone wants to look.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #227,283
  • Apr 17, 2010 1:23pm Apr 17, 2010 1:23pm
Housing bubble ...are we immune

75% of wages goes on housing here now.

standard 3 bed detached home is over 1 mill in Vancouver and with in 30 min of downtown. In the burbs a 2500 sqft house is 600,000 plus on a 4,000 sqft lot. The same 1 million will buy you a 10 bed chateau in France with 20 acres, Beach front in Miami, 4 houses in Las Vegas ( buy one rent other out) and get this .... the same house 20 min from centre of London by train in my Parents are is only 650 k .

Interest rates at an all time low and we are taking on massive mortgages. Interest rates back at 7% and I will be picking up a bargain in my hood as foreclosures will be akin to California.

I sold my house on the West side i bought for 1 million at 1.7 million. I lived in it for 18 months and spent 60 k in reno and I missed the peak of the market. Insane. I now live in a little town home and even when i bought thatr expected to take a 100 k hit. But can hold on to it for ever and needed somewhere to live

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1990...rent-this-time
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #227,284
  • Apr 17, 2010 1:25pm Apr 17, 2010 1:25pm
Quoting malcolmb14
This is why I believe moves are pre determined.

I saw some volumes indicating weakness a few hours before the move.

Also after a no demand up day es had a low spread higher volume candle indicating end of a rising market. I did not take the sell as es has been on a rampage and all dips have been bought so far.

News like GS news does not just happen overnight. They know it is coming days ahead of time. Just like pros know news at least 24 hours before we know.
Thats why I do intraday trading and follow PA. I dont want to be a clairvoyant and make monthly predictions. Forex is unexpected. As Fontu say dont believe anything you see in Forex. Expect the unexpected. News make too much bias and noise so I always do intraday.

I make some exceptions when trading news. I usually close my trades before the news and trade UJ or GU pairs with a slight deviation.
  • #227,285
  • Apr 17, 2010 1:29pm Apr 17, 2010 1:29pm
Quoting The Fool
This just hyperbole. There are places that have been hard hit and there are places that were not. And there are hot spots that have maintained positive growth throughout. I have residential projects getting built in WA state right now and demand for new housing is strong, Banks are lending. They have been tight on large projects but that is loosening up.

Bad news sells doughnuts & so that is what people chow down on. But there are all kinds of positive signs to be found if anyone wants to look.

pockets are doing well. Oregon I hear is doing ok as is WA. West Coast is immune, But i think WA is more like Manitoba here ... slow and steady growth not these huge housing price spikes. Maybe as you are in that sector you can correct me if wrong.

I have friends investing heavy in real estate all over the US. The hot spots (palm springs etc ) seem popular. Also had a buddy drop 1 mill into Atlanta and bought a bunch of units he rents out. I thin in 4 years he can take out his original investment. Pretty slick .

The low housing pricing in the US should attract much interest from overseas investor and will be good for future housing recovery.
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #227,286
  • Apr 17, 2010 1:29pm Apr 17, 2010 1:29pm
Quoting T@rantula
Thats why I do intraday trading and follow PA. I dont want to be a clairvoyant and make monthly predictions. Forex is unexpected. As Fontu say dont believe anything you see in Forex. Expect the unexpected. News make too much bias and noise so I always do intraday.

I make some exceptions when trading news. I usually close my trades before the news and trade UJ or GU pairs with a slight deviation.
love the charts btw .. pretty nice set up
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #227,287
  • Apr 17, 2010 1:42pm Apr 17, 2010 1:42pm
Quoting malcolmb14
pockets are doing well. Oregon I hear is doing ok as is WA. West Coast is immune, But i think WA is more like Manitoba here ... slow and steady growth not these huge housing price spikes. Maybe as you are in that sector you can correct me if wrong.
The interior of the country - especially the inland west, has seen more stability and even has some true hot spots - much of that related to energy industry development.

WA/OR west of the Cascades is still depressed but is coming back well, especially WA.

OK we had multiple years of xx% appreciation - you got in on that, congrats - but no way was that normal or sustainable. So now we are back to x% annual appreciation at best on RE investments - not a nightmare. The places that were hit the hardest are places where too much inventory got built in the boom and now somebody is left holding the bag. True, every week the FDIC is taking out the local banks that lent on those speculative RE projects. It will take time for the dust to settle in some of those locales.

If I were a RE speculator I guess I would head for Florida, although I hear that you're already very late to that game if you're only getting there now.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #227,288
  • Apr 17, 2010 1:43pm Apr 17, 2010 1:43pm
Quoting The Fool
"believe" is the notable operative word here...

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100417/...celand_volcano

I believe the infant human race is caught in a Promethian bargain - smart enough to do alot of damage but not yet wise enough not to shit in its own nest. The Earth is pissed - and with good reason. Her oceans are being used as a garbage dump. And silly greedy humans keep farting hydrocarbon waste into Her atmosphere without relent. Global warming is not a political ploy, but an actual fact, and the resultant acidification...
I don't know what sheep and shepherds have to do with volcanoes... maybe you responded to the wrong post, but....

Wow! An American who does believe in climate change and your post is a welcomed refreshing change! The majority have their head in the sands!

Earth does have its own cycles and has had many climate changes during it's history of a few billion years. The fact is that we think climate change only occurs over centuries. Deep core ice samples extracted from the Artic show that climate change can occur in just a couple of years. Now that is frightening people! The issue is how much is mankind contributing to the acceleration of change. We have raped this planet on a massive scale and continue to do so and now it is payback time. It could be a lot sooner than you think!

Anyway, all this pontificating is making me hungry! Time to get the BBQ stoked up!
  • #227,289
  • Apr 17, 2010 1:43pm Apr 17, 2010 1:43pm
Quoting fontu
Yeah but we will be interested in how he doing , exchange analysis to learn more .
fontu
Yea i tell you how i usually place orders. In the morning when i get up i place a morning order, thats usually before London open app. 7 GMT .
The first consideration is that i wanna know is whether the market for EU currency pair is bullish or bearish. I look for the opening price from my MT4 chart, 00.00 candle exactly. If the price opens above the pivot point ( not close to ) I consider that the bias is bullish and I will close the trade at next stronger resistance level. The vice versa is for the price opening below the PP.
If the price clears resistance level i would add more but not before scaling out. I also follow 3 strike rule and they are implemented on my system.After three failed attempts to clear s/r level i would consider that the price momentum had been lost and I would close the trade.Main thing for intraday trading are PP and s/r levels, thats why my trades are based on it

I could consider myself a trend follower so i try to find a consolidation in a trend.
Also I try to find perfect entries based on my trading system. Following PA bar trends and divergences. Thats more complicated method but I could elaborate it more if needed
  • #227,290
  • Apr 17, 2010 1:44pm Apr 17, 2010 1:44pm
Quoting malcolmb14
Housing bubble ...are we immune
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repor...rticle1537623/
Si vis pacem, para bellum.
  • #227,291
  • Apr 17, 2010 1:50pm Apr 17, 2010 1:50pm
Quoting malcolmb14
love the charts btw .. pretty nice set up

Thank You
  • #227,292
  • Apr 17, 2010 1:50pm Apr 17, 2010 1:50pm
Just cononcidence ? suddenly I want to check tick volumes last week close & this week , same big volumes played 6 hrs before the market close & OBV showing clearly accumulation ! not know clearly though malcolmb may help about perhaps.
fontu
Attached Image
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #227,293
  • Apr 17, 2010 2:01pm Apr 17, 2010 2:01pm
Quoting fontu
Just cononcidence ? suddenly I want to check tick volumes last week close & this week , same big volumes played 6 hrs before the market close & OBV showing clearly accumulation ! not know clearly though malcolmb may help about perhaps.
fontu

I have been looking at that myself . Stopped right where the gap started on massive volumes. I am not jumping to any conclusions yet as i want to see the reaction to that


this futures 60 min shows it well . Most of that vol was at 1.3500 area. Just got to see reaction to that now. I would like to see a slight up move if buyers with a low vol test 1.3500.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: chart2095.png Size: 157 KB
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #227,294
  • Apr 17, 2010 2:05pm Apr 17, 2010 2:05pm
Quoting Duce
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repor...rticle1537623/
UK has a big housing bubble too. Once interest rates go up that bubble will burst. Signs are already showing with low volumes of sales beginning to creep in even though prices have risen from negative % back to positive % in the last 12 months.

Canada is reported to have done well in survive the banking crisis and the Government tackled their debt during the boom years, showing a surplus and reducing the overall debt as % of GDP. Didn't know there was a housing bubble even with land that stretches to the horizon. Granted, only small areas are worth inhabiting.
  • #227,295
  • Apr 17, 2010 2:07pm Apr 17, 2010 2:07pm
Quoting malcolmb14
I have been looking at that myself . Stopped right where the gap started on massive volumes. I am not jumping to any conclusions yet as i want to see the reaction to that


this futures 60 min shows it well . Most of that vol was at 1.3500 area. Just got to see reaction to that now. I would like to see a slight up move if buyers with a low vol test 1.3500.

Attachment
Thanks , when bears were busy with profit taking this volume may produce upsurge like before , just imbalance of the sells withdrawals while buy intact . anyway I closed all longs at that time & last time avoid placing again . anyway if this happen it turn into sells again like before , may be at higher levels.

lets see what actually happen.

Thanks again for analysis.good night , see you all next morning.

fontu
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #227,296
  • Apr 17, 2010 2:16pm Apr 17, 2010 2:16pm
Quoting malcolmb14
No I am not a true believer of conspiracy theories.

BUT I do feel the markets are manipulated 100 % . Look at the weekly chart of dj ? NO retracement all dips being bought ... by who ? GS ?

News is designed to screw us that I believe.

Fridays move in the market ... pre determined I believe
its not manipulated. high volume un-leveraged traders take their positions, market makers and other institutions start moving price in a *consolidation* manner to fill smart money orders and to confuse the overall public.. and then BAM. General public is either margin called or stopped out
  • #227,297
  • Apr 17, 2010 2:26pm Apr 17, 2010 2:26pm
Quoting akhtergroup
its not manipulated. high volume un-leveraged traders take their positions, market makers and other institutions start moving price in a *consolidation* manner to fill smart money orders and to confuse the overall public.. and then BAM. General public is either margin called or stopped out

Have you every watched the $vold ? sometimes it ticks up in an unhuman nature , each 10 min the candle body exact same height as prior one. Almost seems auto trading.

also ever notice how the ES has been dipping every morning for 1st 45 min then being bought like mad. This also does not seem like normal human behavior , almost a programmed method of trading.

This is why I like fx better and even this can be manipulated but rarely so ( look at usdchf and 180 pip move in 10 minutes the other Frdiay at end of session)
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #227,298
  • Apr 17, 2010 2:26pm Apr 17, 2010 2:26pm
straight up : if this stockmarket corrects due to goldman sachs , what does this mean for the u.s. dollar , a flight to the safe haven or just the opposite?
  • #227,299
  • Apr 17, 2010 2:32pm Apr 17, 2010 2:32pm
Quoting iefke
straight up : if this stockmarket corrects due to goldman sachs , what does this mean for the u.s. dollar , a flight to the safe haven or just the opposite?
I think it means stronger EUR...
  • #227,300
  • Apr 17, 2010 2:33pm Apr 17, 2010 2:33pm
darn..
Quoting SilverShark
I think it means stronger EUR...
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