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  • #227,241
  • Apr 17, 2010 7:07am Apr 17, 2010 7:07am
the price did break the down trend line on the channel that we at now i think the price is retracing now to 1.3525 then will continue down first target is at 1.3444


http://img90.imageshack.us/img90/4130/an1.gif
  • #227,242
  • Apr 17, 2010 7:19am Apr 17, 2010 7:19am
I still think German courts will disallow bailout of Greece, I do belive that plan was agreed to try and bring optimism to markets, now that Greece is not able to borrow at those yields Germany will be looking for a way not to provide funds. They must have known that a situation may arrise when 1 or 2 countries may find themselves in a similar situation, hence they had a clause regarding no bailouts of EU members. So I don't see how it will work in Greece's favour. Forcing them out or leaving themselves is the right thing to do.
Prices oscillate, trends persist. Trend is your friend.
  • #227,243
  • Apr 17, 2010 7:29am Apr 17, 2010 7:29am
Preliminary analysis for Next week:
http://img15.imageshack.us/img15/3213/picture2lsx.png

Needless to say there are a lot of lines because im on a 1Hr timeframe for this for quick clarification:

Blue lines: Pitchfork
Black lines: Supply Lines recopied and mediumterm Trendlines
Orange Line: Line signifying reversal after upwards move or breakout for bulls
Palegreen circle: Range
Pinkish Circle: Target Destination for next week
Turquoise circle: Primary Target for mid of the week

Please feel free to disagree and argue with me although i will state that the same analysis was the one which called the breakout points aswell as my predicitons which ive been holding since monday that it has to reach 1.3500 for several reasons (Gap closing not being a prominent one, but from what we can see this week a dominent one based on market sentiment)

Weve had a discussion with Gatorina here about USDX and EURX having to stabilise but as we have seen correlations between usd and gold etc and other patterns are starting to go to hell. Ive mentioned previously that the downtrend is not over and ive also explained my reasons why greece will impact the euro very hard this year in previous posts, please search them and read them should you care because i dont feel like copy pasting everything over again since its saturday and the weather is nice and i plan on buying a lot of drugs and have a nice weekend

Now towards the analysis:

I expect the Euro to range within the pitchfork for now although i will become bullish mediumterm should the orange line start getting crossed and there should be no retrace after it also hitting the Upper bound of the Pitchfork. Movement and momentum is suggesting targetting of the lower bound of the Pitchfork for now. Supplylines seem to be holding out well and ive dragged them along a speedline of the 5 month lasting Bear Trend on equal distances which for now seem to signalise 40 pip breakmoves down.

I do expect price to regain bullish confidence on people covering their shorts and entering the palegreen circle area for now but im waiting for a bear signal for now which should happen when price crosses through the pitchfork midline, cutting the black trendline which is cutting through the pinkish circle targeting the 61.8 fib retracement level. This should all play out midterm within 1-2 days, if were lucky this should happen on tuesday due to higher trading volumes on tuesday.

The primary target is the longterm Blue trendline which is the slower trendline for the resistance channel since 3-5 months. As we can see it failed to breach it since that last mondays opening we had was purely based on investor speculation about the Eurogroup meeting and deciding to finish up the package and giving us numbers about its height.

In a nutshell or TL;DR :

Bearish direction and momentum targeting 1.3483 with minor retraces along the way.
Followed by a strong bearish breakmove towards 1.3375. There is a lot of strong correlations at that area so either the bullrun people have been waiting for might occur at the bounce of the blue line. Or FINALLY we should be able to see a crash towards the long awaited 1.3000 and 1.2800 zone in extension.

Feel free to argue or disagree.

Have a nice weekend
  • #227,244
  • Apr 17, 2010 7:33am Apr 17, 2010 7:33am
Quoting T@rantula
Well Yng, long time no see here on FF, I hope you will post here as many ppl can really learn from you and your PA naked charts

Hey bro! i'm nuthin here bro.. to many expert here..LoL!
Live trade ~ GBPUSD only. No chart! Follow at your own risk!
  • #227,245
  • Apr 17, 2010 7:40am Apr 17, 2010 7:40am
Quoting Yngwie
Hey bro! i'm nuthin here bro.
I strongly disagree mate...
  • #227,246
  • Apr 17, 2010 7:57am Apr 17, 2010 7:57am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd.jpg Size: 174 KB


Count Bars, go with Bartrend... If we see 3 Higher lows we need to scale out on a short position, no bullish divergence spotted yet
  • #227,247
  • Apr 17, 2010 9:12am Apr 17, 2010 9:12am
i give it three day .

This is another one of those bs items designed to drop the markets so that everyone can buy cheaper. I mean come on unemployment , rising claims , 7 years for job recovery and 300,000 defaults or foreclosures per month has not turned the markets why would this ? Until interest rates go up the stock market is attarctive and stocks the only vehicle that gives any sort of returns on invetment right now.

It did give some nice volatility in gold and es at end of week though .

Keep them coming goldman we like volatility

Quoting Atlast
Really, is this what the SEC's claim rests on, they can't be serious:
[i]"The SEC’s complaint accuses the firm of fraud because it didn’t disclose to one party of the transaction who was on the other side of that transaction....
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #227,248
  • Apr 17, 2010 9:25am Apr 17, 2010 9:25am
Quoting malcolmb14
i give it three day .

This is another one of those bs items designed to drop the markets so that everyone can buy cheaper. I mean come on unemployment , rising claims , 7 years for job recovery and 300,000 defaults or foreclosures per month has not turned the markets why would this ? Until interest rates go up the stock market is attarctive and stocks the only vehicle that gives any sort of returns on invetment right now.

It did give some nice volatility in gold and es at end of week though .

Keep them coming goldman we like volatility
Hi Malcolm,

Exactly my sentiments too as you well know. The drop in the DOW and strengthening of $ on Friday was a knee-jerk reaction like most of these type of news items. It will take years before a conclusion is reached over the Goldman Sachs debacle and there is only one winner during this time.... the lawyers!

Double-dip will come people, it is not a question of if, but when! Still have June pencilled in my diary

It did scupper your targets for cable this week, oh well.... I am sure we will get there.

Take it easy and see you around.
  • #227,249
  • Apr 17, 2010 9:34am Apr 17, 2010 9:34am
winner is also GS . They are rumored to have sold stacks of es contracts as they knkew they were going to get beat on by their buddies the SEC . The whole market is a conspiracy. There is no natural movement. They are all predesigned. All we can do is react and try not to guess.

I was guessing last week we would see move to 1,3760 on eu ... I was off base on that one and very wrong. All we can do is react , wait for the right time time to enter the market and hopefully make some pips.

This is why I am a day trader , hoping to make my 50 to 100 pip a day.

Who cares where the trend goes as long as there is volatility

Quoting bbakker
Hi Malcolm,

Exactly my sentiments too as you well know. The drop in the DOW and strengthening of $ on Friday was a knee-jerk reaction like most of these type of news items. It will take years before a conclusion is reached over the Goldman Sachs debacle and there is only one winner during this time.... the lawyers!

Double-dip will come people, it is not a question of if, but when! Still have June pencilled in my diary

It did scupper your targets for cable this week, oh well.... I am sure we will get there.

Take it easy and see you around....
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #227,250
  • Apr 17, 2010 9:35am Apr 17, 2010 9:35am
Quoting Yngwie
Hey bro! i'm nuthin here bro.. to many expert here..LoL!
you are most welcome . we need to learn from you too. together we will do it better & wish newbie also learn from the combined efforts & never loose heart & money again.
thanks , never sky please.
fontu
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #227,251
  • Apr 17, 2010 9:55am Apr 17, 2010 9:55am
Quoting malcolmb14
winner is also GS . They are rumored to have sold stacks of es contracts as they knkew they were going to get beat on by their buddies the SEC . The whole market is a conspiracy. There is no natural movement. They are all predesigned. All we can do is react and try not to guess.

I was guessing last week we would see move to 1,3760 on eu ... I was off base on that one and very wrong. All we can do is react , wait for the right time time to enter the market and hopefully make some pips.

This is why I am a day trader , hoping to make my 50 to...
Thanks , well said " no natural , predesigned, conspiracy". To find the price action after filtering all those , scam,spams & media ( news ) it is certainly impossible to anyone perhaps & so we can't quess/predict actually ,just react & try save our butts only.

without them life can be real safe ,our 1$ can't be 0 by sec , can have lots of time to decide before the zero though it never should be the zero except someone steal it.

fontu
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #227,252
  • Apr 17, 2010 10:24am Apr 17, 2010 10:24am
Quoting fontu
you are most welcome . we need to learn from you too. together we will do it better & wish newbie also learn from the combined efforts & never loose heart & money again.
thanks , never sky please.
fontu
Well said; )
  • #227,253
  • Apr 17, 2010 10:26am Apr 17, 2010 10:26am
A lot of bearish divergence on MACD histogram.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd.jpg Size: 63 KB
  • #227,254
  • Apr 17, 2010 10:56am Apr 17, 2010 10:56am
I recall being into divergences once, not anymore, I would keep an eye on divergences that happen on longer term charts, but intraday ones I have found to be 50/50 probability. How price reacts to levels is much more important. For instance here are key monthly/Q1 levels to watch as price reaction to those levels is a lot more valuable. If price can't break a level it will be taken to another level to see whether interest can be had there, everything in between is pure liquidity noise.

3819/3858/3860/3865

3621/3624/3694

3498/3507/3510

3442

3266/3283

This week price has closed 1.3498 June futures contract. That level is one of key levels, next one above it would be 1.3621 & below 1.3442. If price doesn't hold 1.3498 then 1.3442 is likely to be next. If it does hold it then 1.3621 re-test would be likely.

What is also important is to keep in mind that rejection of 1.36s meant USD has held key zone 80.20 or just 80. If this month USD closes above 80, then 82 will be likely next target, which also means 1.3266 re-test in Euro.
Prices oscillate, trends persist. Trend is your friend.
  • #227,255
  • Edited 11:19am Apr 17, 2010 11:06am | Edited 11:19am
Quoting jsspmk
intraday ones I have found to be 50/50 probability.
For intraday i use h4 chart, but tbh I would give 80/20 ratio to HIDDEN divergences, in this case its bearish. Reverse or hidden divergences are more important and more trustworthy because price make a lower high and indicator/oscillator makes a higher high. And if u use it on H4 it can be a good signal to continue trading with maintrend. I usually trust them until i spot a new divergence

Quoting jsspmk
How price reacts to levels is much more important.
Yes this is very important also

Quoting jsspmk
If price can't break a level it will be taken to another level to see whether interest can be had
I usually go for 3 strike rule there
  • #227,256
  • Edited 11:53am Apr 17, 2010 11:19am | Edited 11:53am
Quoting malcolmb14
winner is also GS . They are rumored to have sold stacks of es contracts as they knkew they were going to get beat on by their buddies the SEC . The whole market is a conspiracy. There is no natural movement. They are all predesigned. All we can do is react and try not to guess.

I was guessing last week we would see move to 1,3760 on eu ... I was off base on that one and very wrong. All we can do is react , wait for the right time time to enter the market and hopefully make some pips.

This is why I am a day trader , hoping to make my 50 to...
So let me get this straight... You are a believer of the following website then? http://www.trueconspiracies.com/

Here is another article related to the recent rise in the US markets -
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/fun...cks-2010-01-05

I was aware of these groups and the theories behind it, but I have always put them in the same category as ghosts and UFOs.

People say these things happen, but where is the actual evidence, or don't we need evidence anymore? Science is all about providing the evidence in a manner that makes it a fact, although saying that in recent times, Global Warming theorists have been massaging these facts for their own purposes. Science does still have many unanswered questions. Gravity is one of them and until we know all the facts in Science we can only speculate. Maybe I am going off topic here, but what I am trying to say is that the conspiracy theories are just that... speculation. Where are the hard facts? Show me these and I will be more inclined to believe.

EDIT: I just finished reading the first web site I linked in my post. I am agnostic, but I still believe in good will to others. What comes around, goes around. The bullet points make interesting reading, but I would hardly call them facts, such as scientific facts, although the Chaos Theory does scorn some scientific facts known to man. It all makes interesting reading and those bullet points basically describe what Capitalism is. If Capitalism is not the answer, which economic ideology are you in favour of? Mankind through history has tried them all, none are perfect, but we are where we are today and at least we have some freedom to do what we want in life.

Anyway, enough philosophy back to Forex! I think the Euro still has some more room to go north, before we head south, but I will take each day as it comes!
  • #227,257
  • Apr 17, 2010 11:39am Apr 17, 2010 11:39am
Quoting Yngwie
Hey bro! i'm nuthin here bro.. to many expert here..LoL!
I checked out your site and just wanted to say good job on your calls
  • #227,258
  • Apr 17, 2010 11:58am Apr 17, 2010 11:58am
Quoting Protogenos
I checked out your site and just wanted to say good job on your calls
Indeed , very good job...Also i try to help with EU calls and we always agree, GU calls are awesome
  • #227,259
  • Apr 17, 2010 11:59am Apr 17, 2010 11:59am
Quoting jsspmk
I still think German courts will disallow bailout of Greece, I do belive that plan was agreed to try and bring optimism to markets, now that Greece is not able to borrow at those yields Germany will be looking for a way not to provide funds. They must have known that a situation may arrise when 1 or 2 countries may find themselves in a similar situation, hence they had a clause regarding no bailouts of EU members. So I don't see how it will work in Greece's favour. Forcing them out or leaving themselves is the right thing to do.
I think you could be on to something here. Seeing the situation is getting more wide spread(or more known to be wide spread) to other pigs...we all know that 45 billion euros isn't enough for Greece alone...with the rates they're paying..??come on..
So then they're going to have to help at least Portugal maybe Ireland and even spain or Italy...I definitely don't see help coming for all of these countries...

So why would they bail out one just to buy time? I think like you're saying, this could be what they've already been doing...just buying time. It is inevitable for all of the reasons that Gator and others have listed...they're phuked.

One of the broader aspects of the "EU/IMF fund package" or whatever they ended up calling it...was SUPPOSED to help Greeces' short term borrowing rates come down right? They've steadily pretty much gone up throughout the last 4-5 months...

I don't think this "bailout" will cover anywhere near the amount of money that greece is going to have to pay monthly/quarterly(all their bills!!!) for even the next 1-2 years.

I could be wrong I they could pass this whole thing and bailout all EZ members that need money but this would cause uprising and that would screw them just as bad when no one goes to work.

I'm bored so I figured I'd throw a post up as I was catching up on the last few pages.

Take care guys,

Donnie
  • #227,260
  • Apr 17, 2010 12:05pm Apr 17, 2010 12:05pm
No I am not a true believer of conspiracy theories.

BUT I do feel the markets are manipulated 100 % . Look at the weekly chart of dj ? NO retracement all dips being bought ... by who ? GS ?

News is designed to screw us that I believe.

Fridays move in the market ... pre determined I believe

Quoting bbakker
So let me get this straight... You are a believer of the following website then? http://www.trueconspiracies.com/

Here is another article related to the recent rise in the US markets -
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/fun...cks-2010-01-05

I was aware of these groups and the theories behind it, but I have always put them in the same category as ghosts and UFOs.

People say these things happen, but where is the actual evidence, or don't we need evidence anymore? Science is all about...
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
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