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Simple H1 GBPUSD EA

  • #81
  • Apr 16, 2010 10:52am Apr 16, 2010 10:52am
For those wanting to test this EA I have tried a few different values for the SMA and found that a value of 9 gives improved results.

Bars in test 4864
Ticks modelled 97575
Modelling quality n/a
Mismatched charts errors 16558
Initial deposit 2000.00
Total net profit 3448.86
Gross profit 5849.34
Gross loss -2400.48
Profit factor 2.44
Expected payoff 10.85
Absolute drawdown 258.70
Maximal drawdown 704.36 (12.87%)
Relative drawdown 20.54% (450.00)
Total trades 318
Short positions (won %) 162 (95.06%)
Long positions (won %) 156 (94.87%)
Profit trades (% of total) 302 (94.97%)
Loss trades (% of total) 16 (5.03%)
Largest
profit trade 84.90
loss trade -150.22
Average
profit trade 19.37
loss trade -150.03
Maximum
consecutive wins (profit in money) 80 (1371.72)
consecutive losses (loss in money) 2 (-300.44)
Maximal
consecutive profit (count of wins) 1642.16 (72)
consecutive loss (count of losses) -300.44 (2)
Average
consecutive wins 34
consecutive losses 2
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: TesterGBPUSD.gif Size: 10 KB
  • #82
  • Apr 16, 2010 10:54am Apr 16, 2010 10:54am
Quoting Inbox
hmm... no problem, let's improve this one!
Agreed!
  • #83
  • Apr 16, 2010 11:39am Apr 16, 2010 11:39am
Here are the results based on every tick:

Bars in test 4864
Ticks modelled 6983264
Modelling quality n/a
Mismatched charts errors 133523
Initial deposit 2000.00
Total net profit 2907.10
Gross profit 5908.04
Gross loss -3000.94
Profit factor 1.97
Expected payoff 9.20
Absolute drawdown 262.70
Maximal drawdown 970.10 (21.68%)
Relative drawdown 21.68% (970.10)
Total trades 316
Short positions (won %) 162 (93.83%)
Long positions (won %) 154 (93.51%)
Profit trades (% of total) 296 (93.67%)
Loss trades (% of total) 20 (6.33%)
Largest
profit trade 126.30
loss trade -150.22
Average
profit trade 19.96
loss trade -150.05
Maximum
consecutive wins (profit in money) 78 (1383.12)
consecutive losses (loss in money) 2 (-300.44)
Maximal
consecutive profit (count of wins) 1383.12 (78)
consecutive loss (count of losses) -300.44 (2)
Average
consecutive wins 27
consecutive losses 2
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDGraph.gif Size: 10 KB
  • #84
  • Apr 16, 2010 11:58am Apr 16, 2010 11:58am
Hi And Thanks For Sharing Your EA, Where Is 13 SMA Indicator ?!
  • #85
  • Apr 16, 2010 12:01pm Apr 16, 2010 12:01pm
Quoting geoffb65
Are you interested in this strategy as an EA or as a simple manual strategy?
I'm interested in an EA. As a simple manual strategy it's too late in the day for me. I could never be consistent with it. And I'm in the same league with you when it comes to manual trading. I have an indicator I trade, DeMark Trendline Trader, that gives me 85% results and would like an EA for that one but if I can get this one of yours to trade for me , (by the way, thank you so very much for this opportunity), mine is not so important.
Thanks again.
  • #86
  • Apr 16, 2010 12:07pm Apr 16, 2010 12:07pm
Quoting sanyhuis
I'm interested in an EA. As a simple manual strategy it's too late in the day for me. I could never be consistent with it. And I'm in the same league with you when it comes to manual trading. I have an indicator I trade, DeMark Trendline Trader, that gives me 85% results and would like an EA for that one but if I can get this one of yours to trade for me , (by the way, thank you so very much for this opportunity), mine is not so important.
Thanks again.
"In the same league as me"

You mean I'm not the only one who is RUBBISH at manual trading!

  • #87
  • Apr 16, 2010 12:15pm Apr 16, 2010 12:15pm
Quoting geoffb65
Are you interested in this strategy as an EA or as a simple manual strategy?
Now please, let me get this straight......I'm in The Netherlands...GMT2 for Alpari UK and SMA9?

Thanks.
  • #88
  • Apr 16, 2010 12:28pm Apr 16, 2010 12:28pm
"Place the trade at the close of the last 1hr bar of the NY session" So it really doesn't matter what timeframe we use then right? Even though I get different results with different TF's. What am I missing here? Excuse the brain cramp.

thx,
todd
  • #89
  • Apr 16, 2010 1:07pm Apr 16, 2010 1:07pm
Quoting sanyhuis
Now please, let me get this straight......I'm in The Netherlands...GMT2 for Alpari UK and SMA9?

Thanks.
I am with Alpari UK and I get the best results with GMToffset 0 and Start_time 23, I think that puts my start time at the NY close.

SMA9 definitely gives improved results.

I am currently testing different start times so I will let you know if I have a breakthrough!

Unfortunately, testing is not possible at the weekend as the broker spreads are too wide.
  • #90
  • Apr 16, 2010 1:11pm Apr 16, 2010 1:11pm
Quoting todd960960
"Place the trade at the close of the last 1hr bar of the NY session" So it really doesn't matter what timeframe we use then right? Even though I get different results with different TF's. What am I missing here? Excuse the brain cramp.

thx,
todd
Hi Todd
I thought the start_time was not so important but, as I try different start times it is beginning to look as if they may be more important than I first thought.

I will keep you informed of my results as I get them!
  • #91
  • Apr 16, 2010 1:49pm Apr 16, 2010 1:49pm
Here are my best results with 9SMA, Alpari time GMT offset 0 and Start_Time 0 i.e 1 hour after NY close:

Bars in test 4867
Ticks modelled 6992178
Modelling quality n/a
Mismatched charts errors 132487
Initial deposit 2000.00
Total net profit 2919.10
Gross profit 5920.04
Gross loss -3000.94
Profit factor 1.97
Expected payoff 9.24
Absolute drawdown 264.30
Maximal drawdown 972.30 (21.81%)
Relative drawdown 21.81% (972.30)
Total trades 316
Short positions (won %) 162 (93.83%)
Long positions (won %) 154 (93.51%)
Profit trades (% of total) 296 (93.67%)
Loss trades (% of total) 20 (6.33%)
Largest
profit trade 126.10
loss trade -150.22
Average
profit trade 20.00
loss trade -150.05
Maximum
consecutive wins (profit in money) 78 (1416.92)
consecutive losses (loss in money) 2 (-300.44)
Maximal
consecutive profit (count of wins) 1416.92 (78)
consecutive loss (count of losses) -300.44 (2)
Average
consecutive wins 27
consecutive losses 2
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: TesterGBUSD.gif Size: 10 KB
  • #92
  • Edited 3:21pm Apr 16, 2010 3:06pm | Edited 3:21pm
Just look at the settings

Trailing Stop 18 pips (default) even 40 pips maybe not enough for

cable.. And my back test results are horrible on IBFX

Tried different settings, still more losses, than wins.
Viewer Discretion Advised: Shall we shag now or should we shag later? :-)
  • #93
  • Apr 16, 2010 3:57pm Apr 16, 2010 3:57pm
Quoting SkyzerFX
Just look at the settings

Trailing Stop 18 pips (default) even 40 pips maybe not enough for

cable.. And my back test results are horrible on IBFX

Tried different settings, still more losses, than wins.
Care to show us your results?
  • #94
  • Apr 16, 2010 4:11pm Apr 16, 2010 4:11pm
Quoting geoffb65
"In the same league as me"

You mean I'm not the only one who is RUBBISH at manual trading!

Yes. Thank you.
s
  • #95
  • Apr 16, 2010 7:03pm Apr 16, 2010 7:03pm
Quoting geoffb65
Care to show us your results?
Sure, just 1 question , what's that all "modified" stuff about?

Trailing stop?

7 Months + trades. Very rare trades and too much modifications of the trade

As for time settings,

#1 I set GTM_offset to 0 and Start time to 0, EMA to 9

#2 I set GTM_offset to 0 and Start time to 21 (which is 1 hour after NY closing) EMA to 12 which is 1 hour after NY Session closed.


#3 I set GTM_offset to 0 and Start time to 23 (Start of Asia Session) EMA to 12, Lot size to 1.0 mini lot (to see more reasonable returns/loses..

P.S:

I don't think either 9EMA nor 12 EMA can actually show you the trend..

Need longer MA for that.. Like 200 SMA/55 EMA/12 EMA then you can say

if this really downtrend or uptrend, just IMHO.. I'm sure, if instead of 9EMA

you use 24EMA results should be more accurate.. IMHO
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: H1_GBP_Test1.jpg Size: 124 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: H1_GBP_Test2.jpg Size: 146 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: H1_GBP_Test3.jpg Size: 137 KB
Viewer Discretion Advised: Shall we shag now or should we shag later? :-)
  • #96
  • Apr 16, 2010 10:42pm Apr 16, 2010 10:42pm
Quoting geoffb65
Did you run this test on M15?
I have only tested it on H1.

Only 92% tut-tut!

That is quite impressive for such a simple strategy don't you think?

If only I could find a better way to determine the trend after NY close this EA would be absolutely fantastic!

What is your opinion kijkij?
No dear, I ran EA on H1 not M15. What I did, just downloaded the file and ran it on data without any single modification. I mean I did not tell the EA that what candle it has to check, I asked the EA do what you want to do and you see what he did

The only thing which I could not understand that about which candle you are talking? the candle which is last candle which close right at 8GMT PM or the candle after it. So if you have time to explain it!

In my opinion, it can be a good profit over a year. I will test it with right time if I understood the time factor.

I also have idea to simplify EA code because I did not like this too complicated code(Sorry, I am not criticizing you just my idea) if you dont mind but dont know when I will do it.

Other question is what is best way to manually trade it to get the profits just like the EA?

Thanks a lot for at last a profitable strategy(If it continue ).
  • #97
  • Apr 17, 2010 1:50am Apr 17, 2010 1:50am
[quote=geoffb65;3645694]Are you interested in this strategy as an EA or as a simple manual strategy?
[/QUOTE

EA, please.
福 子 Victor V
  • #98
  • Apr 17, 2010 2:24am Apr 17, 2010 2:24am
[quote=camvcvoo;3646888]
Quoting geoffb65
Are you interested in this strategy as an EA or as a simple manual strategy?
[/QUOTE

EA, please.
You can download the EA from the attachments in post #1 both the .mq4 source code and the .ex4 executable code.
Be aware, this is work in progress and needs more work to reach its full potential!
  • #99
  • Apr 17, 2010 2:46am Apr 17, 2010 2:46am
Quoting kijkij
No dear, I ran EA on H1 not M15. What I did, just downloaded the file and ran it on data without any single modification. I mean I did not tell the EA that what candle it has to check, I asked the EA do what you want to do and you see what he did

The only thing which I could not understand that about which candle you are talking? the candle which is last candle which close right at 8GMT PM or the candle after it. So if you have time to explain it!

In my opinion, it can be a good profit over a year. I will test it with right time if I understood...
I am very pleased that you find this EA of interest.

I am in the UK and here NY closes at 10:00pm and I have found I get the best results if I use 11:00pm as my start time.
Having a setting for broker/GMToffset seems to complicate matters too much, so whatever your time zone, set it to start 1 hour after NY close.

My mq4 coding skills are "basic" as my background is in electronics using C++ and Assembler, so please feel free to re-write the whole program at your discretion but I hope you will share your results here when it is finished.

I think that a good manual trader could use this strategy to get much better results than the EA.
Nothing beats the mark one eyeball for determining trend!
Working manually you would get fewer losses and could ride the profits much higher than any EA, as I'm sure you have found EA's work much better when they take small profits but always fall down when they aim for large profits.

You may have noticed that I show the previous daily range and daily-pivot on the chart and I had hoped to use this information to help me determine when the price may be due for a reversal.

The daily range looks reliable on the chart but of course this is very much with hindsite, if only we could build hindsite into an EA!
  • #100
  • Edited 5:27am Apr 17, 2010 3:21am | Edited 5:27am
Quoting SkyzerFX
Sure, just 1 question , what's that all "modified" stuff about?

Trailing stop?

7 Months + trades. Very rare trades and too much modifications of the trade

As for time settings,

#1 I set GTM_offset to...
I envy your methodical approach to testing and I put my hand up for not putting this EA out as a final working model.

I saw potential in the strategy, cobbled together an EA to test it and put it on this thread in the hope of getting other, more knowledgeable members to help make it into a useful tool for all of us.

I agree that much higher targets can be achieved with the GBPUSD pair but I have found that EA's cannot match manual trading profit levels and they work much more reliably when taking small profits.

EA's have severe limitations, they are nowhere near as clever as a human brain and to get any positive results from them you have got to work within the constraints that they impose.

You must agree that the strategy is very simple, so simple it is a wonder that it shows any profit at all!
As such it will require lots of input from people such as yourself who are willing to run tests and try different methods for the benefit of us all.

Please continue to post your ideas and comments they add to our understanding!
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