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Trend Trading All Pairs

  • #6,341
  • Apr 14, 2010 7:50pm Apr 14, 2010 7:50pm
Maybe this means something.... maybe not.

BR
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  • #6,342
  • Apr 14, 2010 9:33pm Apr 14, 2010 9:33pm
Quoting Custos
I can only agree with nightmoves, look at your pullbacks. Also another thing you wanna look at is to be right away in profit from entry. The bigger the momentum the better. If it goes back into a loss more often than not it will hit your stop loss. You wanna be in the green almost instantly. If you are unsure and momentum is not so high, then just close the trade. Always good to be out of a crappy trade.

cheers
Hi Custos
You mention that 'the bigger the momentum the better'
in some of your earlier post, you had pass on trades where you cited 'the PA was going too fast' for your liking.
how do we reconcile these 2 situations.
i mean are there any 'rules' that governs your decision making?
cheers
  • #6,343
  • Apr 14, 2010 9:50pm Apr 14, 2010 9:50pm
Quoting Custos
eur/usd ready for another short? Attached is the daily.
Now I know the usual daily trendline is already broken, but as you all know trendline are not definite. And until we make a higher high, I am still downward biased.
How did I come up with my channels? the shorter channel is just taking the last two highs. A pretty standard channel
The longer channel is a little tricky, I first drew the trendline on the lows and copied that trendline to my highs making an absolutely parallel channel and coinciding right with the current price high.

I...
Hi Custos
can the EU daily be viewed as having a double bottom in this instance, hence a possible long position.
i understand that you have mentioned that it has not taken out the previous high of 17 Mar, hence your bearish bias.
am confused by what i have seen, your insight/opinion most appreciated.
thanks in advance
cheers
  • #6,344
  • Apr 15, 2010 12:13am Apr 15, 2010 12:13am
Quoting A 5
Hi Custos
You mention that 'the bigger the momentum the better'
in some of your earlier post, you had pass on trades where you cited 'the PA was going too fast' for your liking.
how do we reconcile these 2 situations.
i mean are there any 'rules' that governs your decision making?
cheers
I use two strategies.
1. Hector style trade
2. Touch trades (brv style)

Now these days I use touch trades the most, meaning I am entering right at an S/R level. Let's say we are in a downtrend and price is retracing back to my S/R level. I want the retrace to be slow, not fast. When the retrace is too fast, it is likely to breach my S/R level.
For Hector style trades we are in a totally different situation, cause we wait for confirmation in shape of a bpc. We don't care what the retrace looks like, we enter at the "impulse" wave after the bpc. And of course you want the impulse wave go down fast and hard.
So when you hear me saying, momentum was too fast, I mean the retrace. And when you hear me saying momentum is not big enough, I mean the impulse.
hope that helps
  • #6,345
  • Edited 1:34am Apr 15, 2010 12:26am | Edited 1:34am
Quoting A 5
Hi Custos
can the EU daily be viewed as having a double bottom in this instance, hence a possible long position.
i understand that you have mentioned that it has not taken out the previous high of 17 Mar, hence your bearish bias.
am confused by what i have seen, your insight/opinion most appreciated.
thanks in advance
cheers
It could be viewed as a double bottom. But just look at the swing before, we had a TRIPLE bottom. Wouldn't that have indicated a long position as well? Thing is those bottoms or tops have some meaning, but just not a lot.
Well, we are at a difficult point, cause the daily trendline got broken. I am myself not so sure, but I know what defines a trend and when it is broken. lower highs and lower lows = trend, and once it starts to make a higher high and a higher low, trend is broken and we are either consolidating or in an uptrend.
So right now we are still in a downtrend, cause the last high didn't get taken out.
Another thing is: what about the fundamentals. With such large time-frames you have to take the fundamentals into account. The economy in europe is still not recovering very well, greece is still a problem, portugal got downgraded, spain and italy on the same path... In the USA, economy is getting better, a lot of jobs have been created.
Now, I am just waiting that the fundamentals change, like that the USA is entering into high inflation period (since the fed printed a trillion $ and injected it into the economy last year). That would make me more biased for a long.
But right now focus is on europe and how it handles its problems, and it's not handling them well. Thus short-biased for the moment.

but let me tell you, make your own informed decisions. Don't just believe what I say, maybe I am just full of crap and have stupid ideas. Important is that you start to gain a grasp of those things and don't need somebody else to tell you what's going on.

hope that helps.
cheers
  • #6,346
  • Apr 15, 2010 12:33am Apr 15, 2010 12:33am
Quoting Big1red9
IMO - there are a number of pairs with no where to go. The formations are different, but all compressed.

Feels like something is going to go POP.

BR
well, if you look at the weekly, ej is in a weekly channel and possibly going short soon (or breaking out, haha). let's see what happens.

cheers
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  • #6,347
  • Apr 15, 2010 2:37am Apr 15, 2010 2:37am
Quoting Custos
well, if you look at the weekly, ej is in a weekly channel and possibly going short soon (or breaking out, haha). let's see what happens.

cheers
some impulses on EJ with trend... nice +50 sl @BE
  • #6,348
  • Apr 15, 2010 3:54am Apr 15, 2010 3:54am
My entry on EUR/AUD
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  • #6,349
  • Apr 15, 2010 4:02am Apr 15, 2010 4:02am
Yesterday i opened a short position on the EURAUD pair, and few things indicated for me to close the first part of it at 1.4530.

- Price had a great momentum down but at the 1.4516 level there is a support, and price couldnt push through it. On the M15 chart a spinning top formed at that level, telling me a pullback might come up to the 1.4550 level.
- Also the ADR is near at 1.4499
- And i just wanted to cash out my pips, and move SL to BE, to have a risk-free ride with my second position.

Entry: 1.4630
1st TP hit: 1.4530 +100 pips
2nd TP: 1.4370
  • #6,350
  • Apr 15, 2010 4:08am Apr 15, 2010 4:08am
Quoting Naturalwest
Yesterday i opened a short position on the EURAUD pair, and few things indicated for me to close the first part of it at 1.4530.

- Price had a great momentum down but at the 1.4516 level there is a support, and price couldnt push through it. On the M15 chart a spinning top formed at that level, telling me a pullback might come up to the 1.4550 level.
- Also the ADR is near at 1.4499
- And i just wanted to cash out my pips, and move SL to BE, to have a risk-free ride with my second position.

Entry: 1.4630
1st TP hit: 1.4530...

Excellent trade , I am still in it, my entries were different: 14590, +40 SL locked in, not taken profit as yet, but trailing price with manual SL moves to S/R levels & RN
  • #6,351
  • Apr 15, 2010 4:13am Apr 15, 2010 4:13am
Quoting Paulette
some impulses on EJ with trend... nice +50 sl @BE
Nice one! Grats!

Unfortunately price didnt give me my entry signal as a BPC pattern on the trigger chart.

Around the 125.15 level im a bit concerned as it worked as great S/R in the past, and also i like it when more elements are coming together that could push price in my desired direction.

I may pass this setup until that level is breached.

Should i be concerned about that level, or not? What do you guys think?
  • #6,352
  • Apr 15, 2010 4:43am Apr 15, 2010 4:43am
Quoting Naturalwest
Nice one! Grats!

Unfortunately price didnt give me my entry signal as a BPC pattern on the trigger chart.

Around the 125.15 level im a bit concerned as it worked as great S/R in the past, and also i like it when more elements are coming together that could push price in my desired direction.

I may pass this setup until that level is breached.

Should i be concerned about that level, or not? What do you guys think?
We all have different views of the market (our takes on EA is prime example), although trading same strategy. Look at ADR vs Today, already exceeded by +50... Things could slow down for the day or could not? What is your probability assessment?

Best advise I ever received: "wait until you are comfortable that probability is in your favor, don't chase the market, draw your plan and let the market come to you"...

Trade safe
  • #6,353
  • Apr 15, 2010 5:04am Apr 15, 2010 5:04am
Hi Paulette,

wich TF are you using for price trailing, 1H TF?

Thanks.
  • #6,354
  • Apr 15, 2010 6:35am Apr 15, 2010 6:35am
Quoting Paulette
...

Best advise I ever received: "wait until you are comfortable that probability is in your favor, don't chase the market, draw your plan and let the market come to you"...

Trade safe
Awesome advice, thanks mate.
  • #6,355
  • Apr 15, 2010 6:42am Apr 15, 2010 6:42am
Quoting Custos
eur/usd ready for another short? Attached is the daily.
Now I know the usual daily trendline is already broken, but as you all know trendline are not definite. And until we make a higher high, I am still downward biased.
How did I come up with my channels? the shorter channel is just taking the last two highs. A pretty standard channel
The longer channel is a little tricky, I first drew the trendline on the lows and copied that trendline to my highs making an absolutely parallel channel and coinciding right with the current price high.

I am already...
120 pips in profit, stop to b/e. Two hard momentum bars on the h4, what else do you want?
  • #6,356
  • Apr 15, 2010 6:43am Apr 15, 2010 6:43am
Quoting Custos
well, if you look at the weekly, ej is in a weekly channel and possibly going short soon (or breaking out, haha). let's see what happens.

cheers
and it did go short, at least for now, let's hope it stays that way. Waiting for a retrace to get in on board
  • #6,357
  • Apr 15, 2010 8:09am Apr 15, 2010 8:09am
Quoting Custos
I use two strategies.
1. Hector style trade
2. Touch trades (brv style)

Now these days I use touch trades the most, meaning I am entering right at an S/R level. Let's say we are in a downtrend and price is retracing back to my S/R level. I want the retrace to be slow, not fast. When the retrace is too fast, it is likely to breach my S/R level.
For Hector style trades we are in a totally different situation, cause we wait for confirmation in shape of a bpc. We don't care what the retrace looks like, we enter at the "impulse" wave after the...
Thanks Custos
got you perfectly, i.e. situation differs for retrace and impulse.
thanks again for your clarification.
cheers
  • #6,358
  • Apr 15, 2010 8:22am Apr 15, 2010 8:22am
Quoting Custos
It could be viewed as a double bottom. But just look at the swing before, we had a TRIPLE bottom. Wouldn't that have indicated a long position as well? Thing is those bottoms or tops have some meaning, but just not a lot.
Well, we are at a difficult point, cause the daily trendline got broken. I am myself not so sure, but I know what defines a trend and when it is broken. lower highs and lower lows = trend, and once it starts to make a higher high and a higher low, trend is broken and we are either consolidating or in an uptrend.
So right now...
Hi Custos
thanks so much for your explanation.
i do understand the same chart can mean different things to different people.
there are obvious subtle differences which we need to learn through exposure and spending screen time and listening to people like yourselves.
just like the sports, there is no short cut

i just noted that your decision has been proven right to short the EU, congrats
keep up and i must say i enjoyed reading your post, in particular your justifications on your trades.
cheers
  • #6,359
  • Apr 15, 2010 8:22am Apr 15, 2010 8:22am
Quoting Custos
I use two strategies.
1. Hector style trade
2. Touch trades (brv style)

Now these days I use touch trades the most, meaning I am entering right at an S/R level. Let's say we are in a downtrend and price is retracing back to my S/R level. I want the retrace to be slow, not fast. When the retrace is too fast, it is likely to breach my S/R level.
For Hector style trades we are in a totally different situation, cause we wait for confirmation in shape of a bpc. We don't care what the retrace looks like, we enter at the "impulse" wave after the...
very interesting. how would you measure momentum/ retrace as being fast or slow ie how do you quantify it in number of bars or percentage time taken compared with move etc?

thanks
  • #6,360
  • Apr 15, 2010 9:00am Apr 15, 2010 9:00am
These markets are still not in any decent order yet are they. Big swings in both directions, hmmm I guess I will wait a while longer, sounds like some of you guys are making pips on the breaks.

--NM
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