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Trend Trading All Pairs

  • #6,321
  • Apr 14, 2010 9:18am Apr 14, 2010 9:18am
Quoting NightMoves
Here is what I am talking about look at the pullback....way too many bars...

--NM
Also at point of your entry your very close to the previous days high....again resistance...if the previous days high or low is very close to where I would make an entry, I will always wait until I know I am going to clear that level, and will use that as my entry signal once the BPC has taken place at that level, that is where you can usually go to even a smaller time frame and look for the micro patterns to develop around those S/R levels.

--NM
  • #6,322
  • Apr 14, 2010 9:28am Apr 14, 2010 9:28am
Quoting NightMoves
Good Job!! The risk free trades are the ones we are looking for, bank some pips move to BE and your home free...then let the trend run its magic...

--NM
Thanks NM just followed your strategy
  • #6,323
  • Apr 14, 2010 9:47am Apr 14, 2010 9:47am
I can only agree with nightmoves, look at your pullbacks. Also another thing you wanna look at is to be right away in profit from entry. The bigger the momentum the better. If it goes back into a loss more often than not it will hit your stop loss. You wanna be in the green almost instantly. If you are unsure and momentum is not so high, then just close the trade. Always good to be out of a crappy trade.

cheers
Quoting Armadise
Dear NM,


I am convinced that the system will survive over the market’s up and down.
But I encounter the following condition very often.
Looking for BPC, but the “C” goes only a very little of time and range. Therefore, S/L is triggered very often and that really eat up my profit.
How can I overcome this problem?

Thanks
Armadise

example: 2010,9Mar, AUDUSD


  • #6,324
  • Apr 14, 2010 9:57am Apr 14, 2010 9:57am
Quoting Custos
I can only agree with nightmoves, look at your pullbacks. Also another thing you wanna look at is to be right away in profit from entry. The bigger the momentum the better. If it goes back into a loss more often than not it will hit your stop loss. You wanna be in the green almost instantly. If you are unsure and momentum is not so high, then just close the trade. Always good to be out of a crappy trade.

cheers
Well said, using this method it should not take long to be into profits, if it drags on and on then well it probably is best to close it and wait for another entry. Sometimes market momentum slows down especially when price nears the ADR level, even though it will probabaly continue on its merry way there is no need to have heavier drawdowns then necessay.

--NM
  • #6,325
  • Apr 14, 2010 10:04am Apr 14, 2010 10:04am
The AUDUSD is also looking quite promising at the moment.....

--NM
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: BPC on Daily.png Size: 32 KB
  • #6,326
  • Apr 14, 2010 10:09am Apr 14, 2010 10:09am
Quoting NightMoves
The AUDUSD is also looking quite promising at the moment.....

--NM
I think we are still not out of danger zone. Only tested the highs. Just for your information
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd d1 14.4.2010.gif Size: 24 KB
  • #6,327
  • Apr 14, 2010 10:15am Apr 14, 2010 10:15am
Quoting Custos
I think we are still not out of danger zone. Only tested the highs. Just for your information
Yep you are right, there is still resistance to over come so it needs to be watched, if it does break it should be a nice slow profitable run...

--NM
  • #6,328
  • Apr 14, 2010 10:37am Apr 14, 2010 10:37am
THe GBPUSD is getting into an area to watch too..

--NM
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Getting close.png Size: 34 KB
  • #6,329
  • Apr 14, 2010 2:26pm Apr 14, 2010 2:26pm
I am definiately watching closely the AUDJPY, as i think there are some elements coming together.

Firstly, there was an uptrend on the daily chart, and right now the pair is consolidating in the past 11 days, which can be a rest for the bulls for a new ride up.

Price today retested the upper level of the range at the 87.5 level, where price reacted heavily off it, as it can be seen on the touching candle. After that price dropped and touched the uptrend line on the H1 chart. Price havent yet closed below the 87.00 RN on the H4 chart, so it can be a support level for a ride up in the coming days.

If price shoots over 87.5 level and indicates me, that it will then work as a support level (by retesting it from above), i'm definiately long on this pair.

Allright here is my chart attached.

By the way, im curious about your analysis guys.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audjpy_0414_h4.gif Size: 50 KB
  • #6,330
  • Apr 14, 2010 2:30pm Apr 14, 2010 2:30pm
Quoting Custos
I think we are still not out of danger zone. Only tested the highs. Just for your information
Can you please explain what you mean 'still not out of danger'?
Do you mean that you are waiting for the price to pass the recent high ie.. the breakout point before entering the long trade (ie.. the continuation) or are you waiting to see how price reacts off the round number at 0.9400?

Many thanks
  • #6,331
  • Apr 14, 2010 2:35pm Apr 14, 2010 2:35pm
Quoting bluemosaic
Hi Custos,

Can you please explain what you mean 'still not out of danger'?
Do you mean that you are waiting for the price to pass the recent high ie.. the breakout point before entering the long trade (ie.. the continuation)?

Many thanks
Simon
exactly
  • #6,332
  • Apr 14, 2010 2:42pm Apr 14, 2010 2:42pm
Quoting Custos
exactly

thanks!
  • #6,333
  • Apr 14, 2010 2:58pm Apr 14, 2010 2:58pm
I was wondering if someone could help me with my analysis on this trade.
I looked at the daily chart and decided that there was a short opportunity based on:

1. Trend is down.
2. Retrace back to 61.8 with confluence at round number 1.4700.

Price has gone down today as expected and broken through the retrace (see H4 chart (top image)).

Questions are:

1. Is my analysis ok above?
2. Should I now wait for pullback and then enter on continuation?
3. What would reasonable target be?
4. I presume stop is just above pullback - is this correct?

Many thanks for your help. It is much appreciated
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ScreenHunter_01 Apr. 14 20.52.jpg Size: 138 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: ScreenHunter_02 Apr. 14 20.54.jpg Size: 136 KB
  • #6,334
  • Apr 14, 2010 3:15pm Apr 14, 2010 3:15pm
1. yes, analysis is okay. I would add that we bounce off a channel as seen in my h4 chart.
Yes, daily is setup, h4 is trigger.
But I would not draw the retracement trendline as you did. take the lows, not highs with lows. The red line is how I would have drawn it.
2. Well, we are already pulling back, so I would wait for a continuation.
3. Standard are two targets: 1. last swing low. 2. 80% extension of the last swing.
4. and yes stop is above pullback.

So, now I show you where I entered. It's a slightly different methodology, but anyways, here it goes.
Second chart is a h1 chart. As you see we formed a channel. Retraced back to channel top + 50% fib of last h1 swing + horizontal S/R level.
Now the difference in what I do is that I don't wait for bpc, I just enter at the S/R level.
I don't have a target, just trail my stop behind each S/R level until I get stopped out.
Stop already at b/e now.
Cheers.

Quoting bluemosaic
I was wondering if someone could help me with my analysis on this trade.
I looked at the daily chart and decided that there was a short opportunity based on:

1. Trend is down.
2. Retrace back to 61.8 with confluence at round number 1.4700.

Price has gone down today as expected and broken through the retrace (see H4 chart (top image)).

Questions are:

1. Is my analysis ok above?
2. Should I now wait for pullback and then enter on continuation?
3. What would reasonable target be?
4. I presume stop is just above pullback - is this correct?...
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euraud h4 14.4.2010.gif Size: 27 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: euraud h1 14.4.2010.gif Size: 34 KB
  • #6,335
  • Apr 14, 2010 3:25pm Apr 14, 2010 3:25pm
Quoting Custos
1. yes, analysis is okay. I would add that we bounce off a channel as seen in my h4 chart.
Yes, daily is setup, h4 is trigger.
But I would not draw the retracement trendline as you did. take the lows, not highs with lows. The red line is how I would have drawn it.
2. Well, we are already pulling back, so I would wait for a continuation.
3. Standard are two targets: 1. last swing low. 2. 80% extension of the last swing.
4. and yes stop is above pullback.

So, now I show you where I entered. It's a slightly different methodology, but anyways, here...
Many thanks Custos for taking the time to show me this and for your helpful comments
I am quite pleased that my analysis was ok - I know it was not quite correct but gives me hope!
  • #6,336
  • Apr 14, 2010 3:27pm Apr 14, 2010 3:27pm
Quoting bluemosaic
Many thanks Custos for taking the time to show me this and for your helpful comments
I am quite pleased that my analysis was ok - I know it was not quite correct but gives me hope!
no problem, you are doing fine.
  • #6,337
  • Apr 14, 2010 3:52pm Apr 14, 2010 3:52pm
eur/usd ready for another short? Attached is the daily.
Now I know the usual daily trendline is already broken, but as you all know trendline are not definite. And until we make a higher high, I am still downward biased.
How did I come up with my channels? the shorter channel is just taking the last two highs. A pretty standard channel
The longer channel is a little tricky, I first drew the trendline on the lows and copied that trendline to my highs making an absolutely parallel channel and coinciding right with the current price high.

I am already short, let's see if it goes or I get stopped out.

cheers
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd d1 14.4.2010.gif Size: 30 KB
  • #6,338
  • Apr 14, 2010 4:12pm Apr 14, 2010 4:12pm
Quoting Naturalwest
I am definiately watching closely the AUDJPY, as i think there are some elements coming together.

Firstly, there was an uptrend on the daily chart, and right now the pair is consolidating in the past 11 days, which can be a rest for the bulls for a new ride up.

Price today retested the upper level of the range at the 87.5 level, where price reacted heavily off it, as it can be seen on the touching candle. After that price dropped and touched the uptrend line on the H1 chart. Price havent yet closed below the 87.00 RN on the H4 chart, so it...
I am looking at the same thing, once the range breaks and we get the BPC then I will be long on that pair too. So you are seeing things the same as I am anyway and hopefully we are right...

--NM
  • #6,339
  • Apr 14, 2010 4:42pm Apr 14, 2010 4:42pm
Quoting NightMoves
I am looking at the same thing, once the range breaks and we get the BPC then I will be long on that pair too. So you are seeing things the same as I am anyway and hopefully we are right...

--NM
Hi attached is aud/jpy weekly and h4.
As you can see the weekly is forming a resistance.
And on the h4 chart you can see that we are still at the upper part of our channels.
I would wait either for a retrace, a breakthrough or total reversal before entering any position in the moment, too much resistance above on all higher time-frames.

cheers
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audjpy w1 14.4.2010.gif Size: 26 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: audjpy h4 14.4.2010.gif Size: 27 KB
  • #6,340
  • Apr 14, 2010 7:35pm Apr 14, 2010 7:35pm
IMO - there are a number of pairs with no where to go. The formations are different, but all compressed.

Feels like something is going to go POP.

BR
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ej.gif Size: 36 KB
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