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EURUSD

  • #224,981
  • Apr 13, 2010 11:42am Apr 13, 2010 11:42am
Quoting tonyo524
Sometimes I will post a chart, sometimes I won't. But here is my opinion on charts. I have saw a few post mentioning how crazy this price action is. Well my response to that is this. The charts are like everyone's crystal ball. Sure there are hundreds of indicators, and a thousand ways to view a chart, but ecery chart and every indicator all show one thing. Market sentiment. You can look at any chart at see how the market felt at any specific time on any specific date. All charts are in agreement with that fact. That said, I believe the current...

Well put. Market is still bearish oriented, but currently indecisive. We should close the gap and get a final direction.
  • #224,982
  • Apr 13, 2010 11:44am Apr 13, 2010 11:44am
I closed out my SHORT EU for +10 pips...at least not a loser for the following reasons:

1. GU looks to be making a double bottom with Bullish DIV on 5 min

2. Chf is hung up at the 564 number where there is resist....

3. I did not enter at a good area...will wait....for another Atlast update!
  • #224,983
  • Apr 13, 2010 11:45am Apr 13, 2010 11:45am
Hi guys,

i have been silently coming here regularly but decided to study further trying to find a strategy that i can believe.

i have found that most of the times i change from strategy to strategy basically because i don't really believe the one i am trading. besides my discipline as yet to improve. seems to me that discipline will come with belief: if i completely believe a strategy i will follow it; if i doubt it (which was the case) i will eventually look for other entries or exits rather than the ones previously established.

so, here the deal: changed to higher time frames. i have accomplished my goal of reducing my overtrading so i will look at higher timeframes at least for direction. also have changed my mind on SL at BE: will used on one strategy but not on the other (on bigger timeframes i don't think it is that usefull).

hope that overleveraging won't be a problem anymore: just blew up my second live account a couple of weeks ago, so i believe my unconscious has learned.

no more reversal guessing: trade what i see not what i want to see. no more picking bottoms or tops (we have strip clubs for that, as someone as said before).

let's see how it goes from now on.

hapipipin to u all
dreams do come true.
  • #224,984
  • Apr 13, 2010 11:46am Apr 13, 2010 11:46am
Quoting Mr Hatch
where are we going medium-term?
my charts are telling me, there should be some bullish movements, my sentiment and fundamental hints are pointing to 1.0. then again, we are trapped in this consolidation... clueless. don't wanna flip coins.
no idea man... my long term charts telling me, possible reversal and bottoming.

of course since it is a long term charts, so fundamental has to support it...

thus i wont ignored that fact that there might be the possibility of a reversal. but im still shorting.

when more confirmations comes in, i'll trade long.

doesn't mean i dont have longs, but not as much as shorts, and most likely scalping.
  • #224,985
  • Apr 13, 2010 11:46am Apr 13, 2010 11:46am
Moved down but still not the target , may be this time , a expanding triangle there perhaps .may move up from 63 to 90 or above before fall & break down .
fontu
Attached Image
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #224,986
  • Apr 13, 2010 11:50am Apr 13, 2010 11:50am
I am still looking to short GU as I believe a big drop is maturing. Unless we get a new high this is also in accordance EW analyzes.

We have weaker tops. This is cearly visible on H4 which to me indicate a larger drop over the next days.



Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu.gif Size: 17 KB



H1

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #224,987
  • Apr 13, 2010 11:51am Apr 13, 2010 11:51am
Quoting wannaberich
Hi guys,

i have been silently coming here regularly but decided to study further trying to find a strategy that i can believe.

i have found that most of the times i change from strategy to strategy basically because i don't really believe the one i am trading. besides my discipline as yet to improve. seems to me that discipline will come with belief: if i completely believe a strategy i will follow it; if i doubt it (which was the case) i will eventually look for other entries or exits rather than the ones previously established.

so, here the...
well, all mistakes u mention i make it now, almost everyday... about 50 to 60 trades a day, some scalping some depends n i might hold.

aint a pro, there are better out there. but i can give u a advise. understand completely the trading logic of your system. its what defines everything to come in future. and imo its the most important factor to understand, trade management comes after that, followed by risk n mm. entry, stop, target, exit are almost literally not important as mention above. answer and understand the why?
  • #224,988
  • Apr 13, 2010 11:52am Apr 13, 2010 11:52am
I still think, that in the next 1-2 weeks we could see the 1.39 zone
Pecunia non olet
  • #224,989
  • Apr 13, 2010 11:53am Apr 13, 2010 11:53am
Quoting Buckscoder
Ok, that makes sense.
Should say that I don't need much of a result to go from 0 to covering necessary expenses, and the need is never immediate.

Quote
If I may ask that: Do you see it profitable for you also in the future or do you have fears it could stop at any time?

The only thing that would worry me are taxes and being excluded from the market. There will surely be change, but I think I exploit human behaviour which seems relatively consistent over time.
  • #224,990
  • Apr 13, 2010 11:58am Apr 13, 2010 11:58am
adding into short below 1.3577 with SL at whatever high it makes.
P.S. stopped out initial trade, few pips.
  • #224,991
  • Apr 13, 2010 11:59am Apr 13, 2010 11:59am
Quoting TheLastCoke
It broke the pennant + the neck line and channel as well #474
Yeah, I'm getting in (Pending order) on a test of 5300 (In at 5310) with a stop about 40 pips lower. This will be a very short term play for me if it holds.
  • #224,992
  • Apr 13, 2010 12:01pm Apr 13, 2010 12:01pm
Quoting Jhig
Well, I've already received conformation that a bullish reversal may be in the works.
I played my bullish reversal signal with a gain of +20pips. Made some pips and got some lunch in my belly ... i'm ready for round two (evening U.S. session).
  • #224,993
  • Apr 13, 2010 12:01pm Apr 13, 2010 12:01pm
Atlast,

Looks like I exited my trade correctly and got some pips....

But, I am seeing Bearish Div on 5 min at the retest point of 3593 or maybe ML on 5 min fork stops it......

I was wanting to understand the 3 bar high...what tf were you looking at? You said you locked in at 3584 but was trailing the 3 bar high?

Nowe I know why you stayed away....I burned you out!
Thanks
  • #224,994
  • Apr 13, 2010 12:02pm Apr 13, 2010 12:02pm
exits for me are my main concern: as Ronald Raygun puts it if u manage to make money on a random entry system (being the exits the only variable) u will succeed.

as an example i can tell u that the last days of my real trading account i blew it because i didn't bank some 5 or 6 40 pip trades. looking for a 100 pip trade they came back and closed at BE. some times even i let it become negative.

so my strategy is to get 1/3 ATR for 4 h entries and 20 pips for 15m entries.

on EU the 4h entry and exit of the last few weeks are consistently profitable. on GU, for instance, i am looking at parabolic SAR exits but still to backtest this.

Quoting Clairvoyant
well, all mistakes u mention i make it now, almost everyday... about 50 to 60 trades a day, some scalping some depends n i might hold.

aint a pro, there are better out there. but i can give u a advise. understand completely the trading logic of your system. its what defines everything to come in future. and imo its the most important factor to understand, trade management comes after that, followed by risk n mm. entry, stop, target, exit are almost literally not important as mention above. answer and understand the why?
dreams do come true.
  • #224,995
  • Apr 13, 2010 12:04pm Apr 13, 2010 12:04pm
Quoting IMARICH1
Atlast,

Looks like I exited my trade correctly and got some pips....

But, I am seeing Bearish Div on 5 min at the retest point of 3593 or maybe ML on 5 min fork stops it......

I was wanting to understand the 3 bar high...what tf were you looking at? You said you locked in at 3584 but was trailing the 3 bar high?

Nowe I know why you stayed away....I burned you out!
Thanks
Hey no problem. It's not every day.
  • #224,996
  • Apr 13, 2010 12:07pm Apr 13, 2010 12:07pm
Quoting suthmo
.3500 by 1800-1900 GMT

Possible trip up from there to 3700s during sushi sesh
Here comes the rush.
Founder of Sutherland Wave Principle
  • #224,997
  • Apr 13, 2010 12:08pm Apr 13, 2010 12:08pm
Quoting mmccormac
Yeah, I've got one short in and another set at that level (3690) with stops a push above 3720++. If we get a blast and hold above 3690 then I'll be surprised but it's the first of the week so anything is possible.
I'm watching these very closely... The EURX has broken (and held) above the Daily TL and is now making a Bull Flag. I have taken profit on some and am waiting for confirmation before adding more (Must break back below Daily TL), also I'm ready to close all out if needed. Something to be aware of guys, I'm a short (and so is the longer term trend) but this needs to break down this week.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: eurx-bull-flag.gif Size: 21 KB
  • #224,998
  • Apr 13, 2010 12:14pm Apr 13, 2010 12:14pm
Took a Short at 3575 with SL at 3591 above the last high up....

Looking to TP at 3555...unless we get a clean break thru....
  • #224,999
  • Apr 13, 2010 12:17pm Apr 13, 2010 12:17pm
Quoting suthmo
Here comes the rush.
If this candle hits .3590 It will invalidate my first scenario, I then go with my latest data that says a lower dip around .3550 and then a big hike north around 10pm.

 IMPORTANT NOTICE TO TRADERS: The entire physical universe, including this prediction, may collapse back into an infinitesimally small space. Should another universe subsequently re-emerge, the existence of this prediction in that universe cannot be guaranteed.
Founder of Sutherland Wave Principle
  • #225,000
  • Apr 13, 2010 12:18pm Apr 13, 2010 12:18pm
Quoting wannaberich
exits for me are my main concern: as Ronald Raygun puts it if u manage to make money on a random entry system (being the exits the only variable) u will succeed.

as an example i can tell u that the last days of my real trading account i blew it because i didn't bank some 5 or 6 40 pip trades. looking for a 100 pip trade they came back and closed at BE. some times even i let it become negative.

so my strategy is to get 1/3 ATR for 4 h entries and 20 pips for 15m entries.

on EU the 4h entry and exit of the last few weeks are consistently profitable....
discipline becomes an extremely important factor when it comes to system trading. as in it is important for all systems too.

yes i agree with you, some techniques rely heavily on exits as it is the true bank in into your account. tons of methods works, aint saying anything bad. but my system works on trade and order management.

if ur gonna rely heavily on exit, well it might help if u maintain a standard risk to reward, so it can be more statically proven and also win/lose ratio. deciding on exits are tough so this might help.

also if u trading for a couple bars based on up/down swing. try attaching some ma(probly tma,lma)/oscillator to decide on exit

gd luck man
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