NatGas weekly charts

Hallo ! I try to start new post with natural gas. If anyone is trading natgas is wellcome to share experience. I will attach weekly chart with few lines .

HERE YOU CAN FIND FEW SITES WHERE YOU CAN SEE STUFF ABOUT NATGAS
http://www.firstenercastfinancial.com/
WWW.INO.COM
WWW.FUTURESPROS.COM

I agree with most of your levels except that I don't think that 61.8% Fib will hold. At least straight away. My monthly support is at +/- 3.250 area which is not far away but it means that the uptrend will take a little longer to come.

sisse

I added more fibo levels to be more clear . which one do you think will holds ?

also i want to ask if someone trade on news NATGAS thursday at 5.30 p.m. (romanian time),when is released NATURAL GAS STORAGE.

Here is my chart

sisse

so what makes you think will go to 3.250 +/- ? [

Recovery from 3.81 has possibly completed at 4.334 already. Intraday bias remains mildly on the downside for the moment. Break of 3.81 will confirm down trend resumption towards 3.0 psychological level next. On the upside, above 4.334 will suggest that recovery from 3.81 is still in progress for 38.2% retracement of 5.68 to 3.81 at 4.524. But upside should be limited by trend line resistance (now at 4.874) and bring fall resumption.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 2.409 has completed at 6.108 and the three wave corrective structure of the rebound argues that it's merely a correction, or part of the consolidation in the larger down trend. Current fall from 6.108 might extend further for a retest on 2.409 low next. A break above 5.06 support turned resistance is needed to indicate that fall fro 6.108 is completed. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

Although I read fundamentals and enjoy macro analysis I don't to trade based only on fundamentals In general the consensus on the fundamental outlook for natural gas is extremely negative. There is 12% excess inventories above the 5 years average and forecasters (not always to trust) are lowering their price expectations for the rest of this year especially because of the lack of demand growth.

In any case, from a technical point of view if you see the monthly chart things are a lot clearer. Price confirmed the Aug/Sep 09 bottom when it broke the may/jun 09 resistance. However in march the rally was quickly stopped when price easily broke (that's key) the Nov/Dec support at +/-4.850. The obvious target (support) was the broken may/jun 09 resistance at +/- 3.850.

Here is when your fib may be right. In theory it should find some buyers there as we saw in the last 2 weeks before last Thursday when serious selling came in. As long as +/- 3.850 price holds there is a chance for the trendline on your fib to be right. However, giving the fundamental outlook and, from a TA perspective, the distance to the next Resistance it seems very unlikely that happens soon.

IMHO, the most probable scenario is test at least the Support +/- 3.375 and especially the +/- 3.250 where REAL buying stepped in and stopped the 1 year huge sell off from the +/-13.7. That will also make a very nice confirmed double bottom and give enough time for fundamentals to support the move up later this year.

sisse

Nice move. thanks.

I may be able to offer some natural gas as a very low price, just let me know how to store it, PM me please guys.

(Mum's steaming cabbage and other veg tomorrow for dinner, so get back to me ASAP)

i might need some

Top trading tip. Add boiled eggs to your boiled veg.

today seems to be buying day . right now trying to breach R1 at 4.091 .

This is my view for the next hours. I will be obviously using a shorter timeframe for pulling the trigger.

sisse

this is also 50 % from the last recover . see h1 chart below

R2 is 4.133

Daily PIVOT IS 4.025

I hope you took that long. 1st target out. 0 risk for the rest. Let see what happens next (Reversal Time ... i hope not)

sisse

Edit: All flat now ... reversal hit my stops BE
Edit2: All afternoon chart

i was out for couple hours. sellers are back....