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  • #223,601
  • Apr 11, 2010 5:59pm Apr 11, 2010 5:59pm
Quoting Mr Hatch
nope, let me just say that they were taken care of by Mr. Market.
i made a stupid decision, and market punished me badly. all sl hit.

allright, too bad for you. same happened to me once, but with smaller gap,. However, I were almost certain that we technically would get a good retrace at 3605, but now this gap. Glad I was flat.

Now short GU and long UJ. Hopefully I caught a good rebate price.
  • #223,602
  • Apr 11, 2010 6:00pm Apr 11, 2010 6:00pm
Quoting malcolmb14
Look at the out come of that , most in here are still mega bears and adding shorts.
Perhaps they are Malcolm, perhaps they are. I'm not trading this pair until this bullshit is settled one way or the other. Read this for a moment: 'Euro-zone nations on Sunday put meat on a rescue package of loans that Greece can tap, for the first time announcing the size and the rate of loans that the troubled country can potentially access. As with the plan announced last month, euro-zone nations and the International Monetary Fund will jointly provide the loans. The European countries said they are willing to provide as much as 30 billion euros of assistance. They also detailed the rate at which they will provide assistance. While they called it "non-concessional," the formula would result in three-year loans priced at 5% -- whereas two-year Greek bonds last week had yields of more than 6%.

That comes courtesy of Marketwatch.com.

The point here is that this 'rescue package' is yet more smoke and mirrors in this whole sorry saga of Greece....the FIRST of the PIIGS to get caught out. This package that Greece 'can' tap, or could 'potentially' access seems to me to be a last ditch attempt to prop up the Euro. When the other members of the EZ who are also in strife, go knocking on the door of Trichet et al, what will they encounter?? 'Sorry guys, the cupboard is bare now'. You know what that would cause to happen don't you?. On the other hand, they say 'sure, we bailed out Greece, we'll do the same for you too'.....really?......and this batch of rescue packages will come from where???

Whichever way you look at it, the Euro is (still) in deep, deep shit. Just how long the smoke and mirror brigade can keep this up is anyones guess. As far as I can see though, this currency WILL come crashing down, sooner or later.....

In the meantime I'm trading other pairs as I am unable to moniter the eur/usd during the most important times....and I sure as hell don't trust any position trades right now!!!
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #223,603
  • Apr 11, 2010 6:02pm Apr 11, 2010 6:02pm
Quoting knuckledrag
buy man buy don't give up now
You know I always saying: "Buy Low Sell high." Why should I buy now??

Not a chance. This thing will drop like a rock in 1-2 days.. Back to reality.

Got my shorts up to 1.38 for now.. Let's watch this monkey show.
Viewer Discretion Advised: Shall we shag now or should we shag later? :-)
  • #223,604
  • Apr 11, 2010 6:07pm Apr 11, 2010 6:07pm
LOL , when will I learn that obvious trades = Exact opposite!!
  • #223,605
  • Apr 11, 2010 6:07pm Apr 11, 2010 6:07pm
Quoting malcolmb14
so 1.4000 or ignore club ? I agree . The only thing I have to lose if in ignore club is the banter with you as most of your posts are complete crap anyway
I do understand why tony commented the way he did. Hell, some moment ago i wanted to say similar things but my reasons were (are) different.

The fact is that you are a good (great) trader when it comes to SHORT TERM momentum / prevailing trend trading. Your strategy and entries are logical and you have constructed a well mind set to keep that up. However, what bothers me is that you seem to desperately want to be right about the exact time and the place and you just throw numbers and times all over the place...and that's where you have been wrong and not just a single time. The problem is...noone really knows how you play it out AND THAT IS WHAT MATTERS. I have seen you be completely wrong about your directional bias (by understanding your posts...but heck, maybe i was wrong to understand it in the first place) and yet couple of hours later you say how you got out of that BE. Makes me wonder.

My concern is that with the almighty credibility that you have in this forum coupled with unfcking believeable amount of posts you've written over the years (congrats of soon becoming a top writer...will there be a party ?) there are unquestionably tons of newbie followers who look for get rick quick opps just to find themselves facing a margin call (hmm, i've written this before, haven't i ?) And i do realize that it's not your problem but still.


Quoting malcolmb14
As for Greece failing ... come on think eurozone will ever let that happen ? Just like feds will never let GS , BOA or any other to big to fail bank go down. And if they will let Greece fail what better way to do it than ramp eu back to 1.4000 / 1.4500 1st . Kind of like you buying your new car at half price discount.
Of course not and that's not the point. Future orders and expectations are the point. Greece will no longer be the point (illustrative sentence don't take it literally)....PIIGS will be the point.

I'd like to see it break the channel i posted to even think about bulling.
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  • #223,606
  • Apr 11, 2010 6:09pm Apr 11, 2010 6:09pm
Yes, it may fall back to close the gap and to make a fairly sizable 200-300 pip retrace. However, do not forget that we have made a higher low and a higher high + the daily down-trend line has broken, and major fundamentals that contributed to the euro weakness have changed. We are in the midsts of a trend reversal.

Long EUR, buy pull backs.
  • #223,607
  • Apr 11, 2010 6:11pm Apr 11, 2010 6:11pm
of course. I agree euro is in deep shit BUT if you were smart money ... would you manipulate price higher using news on how recovery is there and Greece has all the aid it wants . That manipulation could be 1.4000 , 1,4500 or even 1.5000 ( sounds insane) but bear market moves are often extreme . Then as the next round of crap hiots the fan you are getitng your sells at a discount price.

Also something that NO one has mentioned are these 2 things
1) eu ONLY retraced to 61.8% of 2008 bottom to top
2) eurgbp is in a wedge on the monthy ( bullish cintinuation pattern)

So does this mean that in fact the move 1.5000 to 1.3500 ish was JUST A REATRCE of the monthly charts ?

I still maintain this whole Greek thing was a fiasco made to drive super bull eu off 1.5000 zone for reloading of longs.

Quoting realjumper
Perhaps they are Malcolm, perhaps they are. I'm not trading this pair until this bullshit is settled one way or the other. Read this for a moment: 'Euro-zone nations on Sunday put meat on a rescue package of loans that Greece can tap, for the first time announcing the size and the rate of loans that the troubled country can potentially access. As with the plan announced last month, euro-zone nations and the International Monetary Fund will jointly provide the loans. The European countries said...
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #223,608
  • Apr 11, 2010 6:13pm Apr 11, 2010 6:13pm
but geez...this thing is going for R3 (1.3700)

o_O
  • #223,609
  • Apr 11, 2010 6:13pm Apr 11, 2010 6:13pm
Quoting lumesh
I'd like to see it break the channel i posted to even think about bulling.
It's potentially can go to 1.3802 or so to create that W.

Nobody were want it at 1.32, now they are buying at 1.37.. Crowd as usual

joying the party too late.. Pumping like a Pink Sheet Stock.. Buy, buy, buy!
Viewer Discretion Advised: Shall we shag now or should we shag later? :-)
  • #223,610
  • Apr 11, 2010 6:18pm Apr 11, 2010 6:18pm
Quoting SkyzerFX
It's potentially can go to 1.3802 or so to create that W.

Nobody were want it at 1.32, now they are buying at 1.37.. Crowd as usual

joying the party too late.. Pumping like a Pink Sheet Stock.. Buy, buy, buy!

the trendline is far more important than your W...i would rather short at the top of the trendline than at 3800
  • #223,611
  • Apr 11, 2010 6:18pm Apr 11, 2010 6:18pm
Sorry to say that, but this could become the mother of all short squeezes. If almost everybody is convinced in the same way, it goes the other way almost all time.

Look at 12 in 2008. After a huge drop a pullback in one month around 1500 pips. Thats mr. market. :nerd:
Sometimes I lose. Sometimes the others win.
  • #223,612
  • Apr 11, 2010 6:20pm Apr 11, 2010 6:20pm
Quoting malcolmb14
of course. I agree euro is in deep shit BUT if you were smart money ... would you manipulate price higher using news on how recovery is there and Greece has all the aid it wants . That manipulation could be 1.4000 , 1,4500 or even 1.5000 ( sounds insane) but bear market moves are often extreme . Then as the next round of crap hiots the fan you are getitng your sells at a discount price.

Also something that NO one has mentioned are these 2 things
1) eu ONLY retraced to 61.8% of 2008 bottom to top
2) eurgbp is in a wedge on the monthy ( bullish...
I agree, the smart money need to keep big moves going so they can fatten their pockets. They know how to take money off people, they know the tricks.
Probability Professor
  • #223,613
  • Apr 11, 2010 6:20pm Apr 11, 2010 6:20pm
Lumesh thanks for nice words about short term stuff

Only time will tell , but the same reason I trade short term are there on weekly charts on the futures.


1) ultra hihg volume doji = buyers
2) ultra high volume doji = buyers
3) high volume down week but next week was up = shake out
40 ultra low volume week ( most of volume this week was friday) = test . no sell interest

1 and 2 were HIGHER volumes than 2008 lows

this is accumualtion for a larger move. NOTE rsx also

1,4 / 1.45 . NOT overnight but 2 to 4 months out.

BTW I have not even been following euro news just the charts

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Quoting lumesh
I do understand why tony commented the way he did. Hell, some moment ago i wanted to say similar things but my reasons were (are) different.

The fact is that you are a good (great) trader when it comes to SHORT TERM momentum / prevailing trend trading. Your strategy and entries are logical and you have constructed a well mind set to keep that up. However, what bothers me is that you seem to desperately want to be right about the exact time and the place and you just throw numbers and times all over the place...and that's where you have been wrong...
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #223,614
  • Apr 11, 2010 6:21pm Apr 11, 2010 6:21pm
Quoting malcolmb14
of course. I agree euro is in deep shit BUT if you were smart money ... would you manipulate price higher using news on how recovery is there and Greece has all the aid it wants . That manipulation could be 1.4000 , 1,4500 or even 1.5000 ( sounds insane) but bear market moves are often extreme . Then as the next round of crap hiots the fan you are getitng your sells at a discount price.

Also something that NO one has mentioned are these 2 things
1) eu ONLY retraced to 61.8% of 2008 bottom to top
2) eurgbp is in a wedge on the monthy ( bullish...
I can't argue with what you're saying, but consider this:

Fitch, one of the world’s big three ratings agency, lowered its rating by two notches to BBB- and said that the outlook on the country remains negative.
The downgrade means that Greek debt remains investment grade, but only just. Another downgrade would make Greece’s debt junk status, an ignominious position for a country using the euro.

The above is a FACT. What's below is not much more than rhetoric, and doesn't bode well for other trouble members of the EZ:

Greece now has a rescue package that it 'can' tap......could 'potentially' access...blah, blah, blah.

Now, given the facts from Fitch vs the smoke and mirrors from the EZ talking heads, does it not seem ridiculous to have the Euro racing off north? To my way of thinking, it's utter bollocks and is a desperate move by desperate talking heads who are trying to prevent the inevitable!

For a TA point of view, 3700 might stop this, being the nice round number that it is, and it's the 78.6 fib from 3817 to 3267.

We shall see....
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #223,615
  • Apr 11, 2010 6:21pm Apr 11, 2010 6:21pm
The problem you are making is you are speculating on "this and that", thinking someone is manipulating, someone is scheming...Who cares?

The fact of the matter is, Why dont you just trade what you see?

I see a higher lower, a higher high, a break of a 3+ month daily trend line, and trading above the 50day moving average for the first time in 3+ months, fundamental changes in foreign monetary policy, and a decisive bullish gap to new highs.

Trade what you see, dont worry about what scheming is being done behind the scenes, and you will have a greater chance of making money.
  • #223,616
  • Apr 11, 2010 6:23pm Apr 11, 2010 6:23pm
Quoting Buckscoder
Look at 12 in 2008. After a huge drop a pullback in one month around 1500 pips. Thats mr. market. :nerd:
I'll give it 1-3 days and you will see it in 1.34 area... Just short term hype

and nothing else..

Tomorrow watch for the other BS, like Spain, Portugal.. Those guys are making money..

Don't forget DOW at 11000 right now..
Viewer Discretion Advised: Shall we shag now or should we shag later? :-)
  • #223,617
  • Apr 11, 2010 6:23pm Apr 11, 2010 6:23pm
I love how quick emotions change in this market. 72 hours ago this thing was gonna break into new yearly lows and touch 1.31, now I'm hearing 1.5. Same thing happens every week or two.
  • #223,618
  • Apr 11, 2010 6:25pm Apr 11, 2010 6:25pm
Quoting weswes
The problem you are making is you are speculating on "this and that", thinking someone is manipulating, someone is scheming...Who cares?

The fact of the matter is, Why dont you just trade what you see?

I see a higher lower, a higher high, a break of a 3+ month daily trend line, and trading above the 50day moving average for the first time in 3+ months, fundamental changes in foreign monetary policy, and a decisive bullish gap to new highs.

Trade what you see, dont worry about what scheming is being done behind the scenes, and you will have...
If you're talking to me, weswes, I've made it clear that I'm not trading this pair.....and I've stated why I'm not trading this pair
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #223,619
  • Apr 11, 2010 6:26pm Apr 11, 2010 6:26pm
Quoting SkyzerFX
I'll give it 1-3 days and you will see it in 1.34 area... Just short term hype

and nothing else..

Tomorrow watch for the other BS, like Spain, Portugal.. Those guys are making money..

Don't forget DOW at 11000 right now..
I agree we will most likely see it close the gap this week and back in the 1.34 range but I'll be looking to buy in that area, per the higher high/higher low..
  • #223,620
  • Apr 11, 2010 6:26pm Apr 11, 2010 6:26pm
what is bigger ?

gs or Greece . GS got aid and survivied

Was Greece really in trouble to begin with ? How else would they get eu to a level where they could load new longs ... just a thought. Watch in 6 months Greece and the ' aid ;' will be no where to be seen in the news

Just like TARP is not now

Quoting realjumper
I can't argue with what you're saying, but consider this:

Fitch, one of the world’s big three ratings agency, lowered its rating by two notches to BBB- and said that the outlook on the country remains negative.
The downgrade means that Greek debt remains investment grade, but only just. Another downgrade would make Greece’s debt junk status, an ignominious position for a country using the euro.

The above is a FACT. What's below is not much more than rhetoric, and doesn't bode well for other trouble members of the EZ:

Greece now has a rescue...
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
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