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  • #223,301
  • Apr 10, 2010 12:58pm Apr 10, 2010 12:58pm
Quoting enterfx
Hey guys, I was away today and glad I was flat today.
I closed all my shorts yesterday/ last night, but should have done it
BEFORE which is partly why I'm making this post.

How to identify potential reversals *BEFORE* they occure:
.
Excellent post man stick it in an ebook.
Founder of Sutherland Wave Principle
  • #223,302
  • Apr 10, 2010 1:08pm Apr 10, 2010 1:08pm
Quoting enterfx
Hey guys, I was away today and glad I was flat today.
I closed all my shorts yesterday/ last night, but should have done it
BEFORE which is partly why I'm making this post.



How to identify potential reversals *BEFORE* they occure:
-----------------------------------------------------------
This post and case study is as much for my own benefit as for anyone elses. I
clearly need to practise this method much more ;=)
...



Comments and suggestions for improvements are most welcome.


.
I'm really a big fan of divergences and I think that they work very well and, like nearly every time in trading, it's really important to have a good money management.

Seen that the currency pairs rise and fall in waves I would recommend to add a sl below/above the last higher low/lower high and to take profit only when the market is exaggerating.
Pecunia non olet
  • #223,303
  • Apr 10, 2010 1:11pm Apr 10, 2010 1:11pm
Quoting wm-eu
I'm really a big fan of divergences and I think that they work very well and, like nearly every time in trading, it's really important to have a good money management.

Seen that the currency pairs rise and fall in waves I would recommend to add a sl below/above the last higher low/lower high and to take profit only when the market is exaggerating.
New HH's in a downtrend is my first alarm to a trend change, see latest examples. #453 #467
  • #223,304
  • Apr 10, 2010 1:14pm Apr 10, 2010 1:14pm
Quoting TheLastCoke
My plan for this week #479


great stuff man....i notice we use a lot of the similar techniques....id definetly give you a vouch if i could
  • #223,305
  • Apr 10, 2010 1:15pm Apr 10, 2010 1:15pm
Quoting mfoste1
great stuff man....i notice we use a lot of the similar techniques....id definetly give you a vouch if i could
Thanks man, Vouch taken!!!
The intention is what counts.
  • #223,306
  • Apr 10, 2010 1:16pm Apr 10, 2010 1:16pm
Quoting TheLastCoke
New HH's in a downtrend is my first alarm to a trend change, see latest examples. #453 #467
But those are hourly charts & it's a longer term down trend, a trend change of an oscillation is one thing, major trend reversal is another.
Prices oscillate, trends persist. Trend is your friend.
  • #223,307
  • Apr 10, 2010 1:24pm Apr 10, 2010 1:24pm
Quoting jsspmk
But those are hourly charts & it's a longer term down trend, a trend change of an oscillation is one thing, major trend reversal is another.
It is you again Buddy!!!

I trade over several TF's. Of course there are trends inside major trends, if that is what you mean.

BTW remember, you have options if you don't like my analylis. I took mine already.

GL.
  • #223,308
  • Apr 10, 2010 1:54pm Apr 10, 2010 1:54pm
Quoting TheLastCoke
It is you again Buddy!!!

I trade over several TF's. Of course there are trends inside major trends, if that is what you mean.

BTW remember, you have options if you don't like my analylis. I took mine already.

GL.

I got confused which time frame you were referring to.
Prices oscillate, trends persist. Trend is your friend.
  • #223,309
  • Apr 10, 2010 1:59pm Apr 10, 2010 1:59pm
Quoting TheLastCoke
New HH's in a downtrend is my first alarm to a trend change, see latest examples. #453 #467
I like this very much , I wanted but did not see charts this way before . Thanks old thing back as new to me . learning & practicing in daily not the same thing .
Thanks again for examples too and confidence as well as flexibility.
I do the unfinished job.
fontu
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #223,310
  • Apr 10, 2010 2:09pm Apr 10, 2010 2:09pm
Polish President Lech Kaczynski and some of the country's highest military and civilian leaders died on Saturday when the presidential plane crashed as it came in for a landing in thick fog in western Russia, killing 97, officials said.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100410/...ia_plane_crash
  • #223,311
  • Apr 10, 2010 2:19pm Apr 10, 2010 2:19pm
Quoting jsspmk
I don't buy the ATR argument, because we all know that when Euro moves away from a critical level it can move way above its atr. I look at it that price failed to take out 1.35, but because it didn't bounce of it either leaves me at 50/50 odds about the strength behind this upside. Also, since you mention volume could you tell us how last week's volume compared to last 20 weeks perhaps. Thanks.

do not buy it up to you . This method has made me a ton of pips this week.

stats say euro moves 108 pips for the last 14 trading session average. Why should it move more . 138 pipis above it atr by 30% , also note when new came out , late in session. Euro zone has not even reacted to this.

In addition do you really think that that daily is bearish . Keep selling up to you , but next week is bull all the way , you will only get 400 pip dd.
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #223,312
  • Edited 2:44pm Apr 10, 2010 2:31pm | Edited 2:44pm
Nobody can beat FOREX by charts only, PERIOD!.. "Trade what you see it's a biggest BS", cause

you see NOTHING! I've been trading Forex Simulator all day long and can

now tell you that let's say on 15M TF with 30 SL 30 TP you will lose 99% of the times

and that's the F* GUARANTEE with any template!

I'll show you few trades, what really takes to win.

Trade most of the time runs your way, but on Volatile pairs sometime I

got like 200 pips run in different direction, but still WIN

Check this out.. If anyone want to Play? Let me know, I''ll Attach the Simulator.

Now I'm totally confident that the only way to win is Average down.. Perhaps every ZigZag signal if fake,

add next time signal pops up and so on.. I win 90% Max time averaged 5, then all you need just get half way back

to break Even at lest.. That's the way to trade. Larger TF is larger SL you need to win, possibly 500 pips without

average down..

All of those CCI/MACD, RSI, all crap, you can really see how all of those will screw you all the time on Simulator..
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #223,313
  • Apr 10, 2010 2:33pm Apr 10, 2010 2:33pm
Quoting malcolmb14
do not buy it up to you . This method has made me a ton of pips this week.

stats say euro moves 108 pips for the last 14 trading session average. Why should it move more . 138 pipis above it atr by 30% , also note when new came out , late in session. Euro zone has not even reacted to this.

In addition do you really think that that daily is bearish . Keep selling up to you , but next week is bull all the way , you will only get 400 pip dd.
You know I read your posts, please read mine
Prices oscillate, trends persist. Trend is your friend.
  • #223,314
  • Apr 10, 2010 2:38pm Apr 10, 2010 2:38pm
Quoting jsspmk
I don't buy the ATR argument, because we all know that when Euro moves away from a critical level it can move way above its atr. I look at it that price failed to take out 1.35, but because it didn't bounce of it either leaves me at 50/50 odds about the strength behind this upside. Also, since you mention volume could you tell us how last week's volume compared to last 20 weeks perhaps. Thanks.
Low volume down week .... in fact lowest since 1.4500.

although it closed off lows.

The highest volume on the week was Friday when we closed on the highs.

Monday mad NO volume ( Easter)
Tuesday had low volume down ( sellers not interested)
Wednesday had low spread high volume ( in come the buyers)
Thursday high vol doji
Friday high volume up bar closing on highs

pretty bullish ...and that may not make sense to you at all as most are seeing is trend is down but in fact downtrend has weakened, and the tl from 1.5100 ish was tested this week. Also not how double bottom missed by 25 pip this time.
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #223,315
  • Apr 10, 2010 2:42pm Apr 10, 2010 2:42pm
Quoting jsspmk
You know I read your posts, please read mine

sorry . I am on a diet and about this time of day i get a little grumpy ....

I read your post.
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #223,316
  • Apr 10, 2010 2:43pm Apr 10, 2010 2:43pm
chart as to why the down move has weakened

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU.jpg Size: 218 KB




Quoting malcolmb14
Low volume down week .... in fact lowest since 1.4500.

although it closed off lows.

The highest volume on the week was Friday when we closed on the highs.

Monday mad NO volume ( Easter)
Tuesday had low volume down ( sellers not interested)
Wednesday had low spread high volume ( in come the buyers)
Thursday high vol doji
Friday high volume up bar closing on highs

pretty bullish ...and that may not make sense to you at all as most are seeing is trend is down but in fact downtrend has weakened, and the tl from 1.5100 ish was tested this week....
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #223,317
  • Apr 10, 2010 2:59pm Apr 10, 2010 2:59pm
If the the euro drops this week, (ie doesn't reach 3600-3800) you won't here from Sophi or Malcolmb again until it makes another up move.
All that is left in FF is just plain garbage. "Cloggie"
  • #223,318
  • Apr 10, 2010 2:59pm Apr 10, 2010 2:59pm
Quoting malcolmb14
do not buy it up to you . This method has made me a ton of pips this week.

stats say euro moves 108 pips for the last 14 trading session average. Why should it move more . 138 pipis above it atr by 30% , also note when new came out , late in session. Euro zone has not even reacted to this.

In addition do you really think that that daily is bearish . Keep selling up to you , but next week is bull all the way , you will only get 400 pip dd.
Hi mal
I'm Aside for while,maybe till May
  • #223,319
  • Apr 10, 2010 3:01pm Apr 10, 2010 3:01pm
Quoting malcolmb14
Low volume down week .... in fact lowest since 1.4500.

although it closed off lows.

The highest volume on the week was Friday when we closed on the highs.

Monday mad NO volume ( Easter)
Tuesday had low volume down ( sellers not interested)
Wednesday had low spread high volume ( in come the buyers)
Thursday high vol doji
Friday high volume up bar closing on highs

pretty bullish ...and that may not make sense to you at all as most are seeing is trend is down but in fact downtrend has weakened, and the tl from 1.5100 ish was tested this...
Weren't you saying this same thing last month when we had 3 weekly doji's just before we made new lows?
All that is left in FF is just plain garbage. "Cloggie"
  • #223,320
  • Apr 10, 2010 3:06pm Apr 10, 2010 3:06pm
That's what it takes to win, another WIN trade. 4 trades with profit:
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