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Odds are with a 4hr KISS

  • #121
  • Apr 4, 2010 2:33pm Apr 4, 2010 2:33pm
Quoting Brb-Fraudin
Nice thread OP. But shouldn't you make the same rules for exit?? So you can get more pips? Taking 30-40 pips out of 4 Hr trend is very low reward. You can check about volataility exit using ATR or you can exit on 5/20 MA cross. But very good entry indeed.

I have asked myself the same question Brb-Fraudin. Basically it comes down to this...if you want more pips out of a trade(say 200-400pip winners) that means your winning percentage usually drops. But if I take smaller winners, my winning percentage went up. This is where each trader has to figure out what's best for him. Personally, I'm rather happy with 100pips a week profit on average. Some people may perfer making more...and that's fine too. To each his own! Cheers!

Also, go back and check out my Post #75...it talks about this very subject.
211
  • #122
  • Apr 4, 2010 2:38pm Apr 4, 2010 2:38pm
Quoting freedomsg
Hi 211 and fellow traders

I went thru all the posts 2x. I like the pace as it is 4 hr. My wife actually asked me to get married to my laptop as my eyes were glued to the monitor always. Rigth now, I have to learned to have some time off the monitor as I have to work in the day and can only monitor the market at night. With the 4 hr tf, I can take thing slowly. I will post my chart when there is a setup. I must learn to be patient. Thank you guys.

Welcome aboard Freedoomsg and look forward to your posts! I had the same problem when I first started trading...loved the action of 5 and 15minute charts...but spent way too much time staring at them and not spending time with the family. hehe I was like a kid with a new toy...but I knew that wasn't going to last.
  • #123
  • Apr 4, 2010 2:42pm Apr 4, 2010 2:42pm
Quoting unclek6
TW,
thanks for bringing it back down to KISS. I think patience is the key. One signal a day or two in any pair is good for me.

That's exactly how I feel...and while it might not be for everyone, I hope to find some other traders that enjoy keeping it fairly simple and not having to stare at the charts all day. Honestly, if you run the numbers...just 2 winning trades a week(100pips) trading 1 standard lot = $4000 a month! I know there's a lot of job out there that you can't make that working 40hrs/week!!! But YOU HAVE TO BE PATIENT FOR THE GOOD SETUPS/TRADES!!!! If it doesn't look good, skip it!
  • #124
  • Apr 4, 2010 2:46pm Apr 4, 2010 2:46pm
Quoting Alf
Hi there Tw0eleven
Just stumbled over your tread. Interesting to see that you are using an almost similar approach as I'm using on my live account since Dec 09

How's your stats?
On my side from 1 DEC 09 I have a hit rate of 81% with an average of 45,97 pips + and 50,82 pips -. However I'm working with my exits as I can see that the potential on the + side is larger than what i have achieved.

Anyway, continues god trading to you.
Hi Alf, thanks for the post...I agree, the winning percentage for this method should be above 75% if a person is patient enough to wait for the proper setups.

I wasn't quite sure what your 45, 97pips + and 50, 82 pips - meant though, can you explain that a little more? Do you take profit at 2 different points?

211
  • #125
  • Apr 4, 2010 5:18pm Apr 4, 2010 5:18pm
Quoting Tw0eleven
Hi Alf, thanks for the post...I agree, the winning percentage for this method should be above 75% if a person is patient enough to wait for the proper setups.

I wasn't quite sure what your 45, 97pips + and 50, 82 pips - meant though, can you explain that a little more? Do you take profit at 2 different points?

211
Nope.. What i meant was that my average wins is 45,97 pips, and average losses 50,82 pips.
  • #126
  • Apr 4, 2010 10:07pm Apr 4, 2010 10:07pm
Quoting Tw0eleven
I wasn't quite sure what your 45, 97pips + and 50, 82 pips - meant though, can you explain that a little more? Do you take profit at 2 different points?
I believe he was referring to 45.97 & 50.82 pips. Some countries do use comma as the decimal separator.
  • #127
  • Apr 5, 2010 2:38am Apr 5, 2010 2:38am
Quoting fthingf
I believe he was referring to 45.97 & 50.82 pips. Some countries do use comma as the decimal separator.
fthingf you are absolutely right. I didn't catch that one before you mentioned it.
  • #128
  • Apr 5, 2010 11:56am Apr 5, 2010 11:56am
Still patiently waiting....something to evaluate later this afternoon...we've had pretty slow movement with most markets closed on Friday and today for the holidays...we'll see what happens later today as things get back to normal. Also, be careful...we have AUD, GBP and EURO interest rate decisions later this week!
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu4hr010.gif Size: 29 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: ej4hr004.gif Size: 31 KB
  • #129
  • Apr 5, 2010 3:07pm Apr 5, 2010 3:07pm
Quoting Tw0eleven
Still patiently waiting....something to evaluate later this afternoon...we've had pretty slow movement with most markets closed on Friday and today for the holidays...we'll see what happens later today as things get back to normal. Also, be careful...we have AUD, GBP and EURO interest rate decisions later this week!

4pm Update: Still nothing saying long on EU, yet I'm not very convinced on shorts either(even though that's what the charts say). still on the sidelines.

As for EJ...it could go either way, so sidelines here too.

And GU? I have an upside bias, but again...nothing there to get me in yet.

Sometimes holidays are great and produce good trades...other times they are REALLY REALLY SLOW!!!! hahaha
  • #130
  • Apr 7, 2010 8:16am Apr 7, 2010 8:16am
Hi 211, GU in at side way now. All the MAs are close to each other. And it is forming a Triangle now. Waiting to break the triangle and close above / below the MAs and decide. Daily TF is below 200 MA, still a downtrend to me. Patience is the game.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu.gif Size: 19 KB
  • #131
  • Apr 7, 2010 8:28am Apr 7, 2010 8:28am
Quoting freedomsg
Hi 211, GU in at side way now. All the MAs are close to each other. And it is forming a Triangle now. Waiting to break the triangle and close above / below the MAs and decide. Daily TF is below 200 MA, still a downtrend to me. Patience is the game.
I completely agree..I have been watching this same chart waiting for some sign to get it. I don't have really anything to add to what you already said!
  • #132
  • Apr 7, 2010 8:34am Apr 7, 2010 8:34am
In reference to my post above #128 and the EU...I was originally looking for a possible long setup, however...I also said to be careful for the possible Head&Shoulders for shorts...it looks like shorts prevailed. There were a couple PB's that tried to get above the 5&20 ma's, but could never close above them. I had to work my dayjob earlier this week, so I missed it...but hopefully some of you were able to get it! GU and GJ might be getting ready for shorts...they both have 1)bearish engulfing candles 2) 5/20 ma's crossed down and 3) macd histograms sloping down AND going below the zero line! Be smart with your entries if you decide to take any of these trades...wait for pullbacks and limit your risk!!!

Happy Trading, 211
  • #133
  • Apr 7, 2010 9:05am Apr 7, 2010 9:05am
Quoting Tw0eleven
In reference to my post above #128 and the EU...I was originally looking for a possible long setup, however...I also said to be careful for the possible Head&Shoulders for shorts...it looks like shorts prevailed. There were a couple PB's that tried to get above the 5&20 ma's, but could never close above them. I had to work my dayjob earlier this week, so I missed it...but hopefully some of you were able to get it! GU and GJ might be getting ready for shorts...they both have 1)bearish engulfing candles 2) 5/20 ma's crossed down and 3) macd histograms...
Patience is the game. Thanks 211
  • #134
  • Apr 7, 2010 4:45pm Apr 7, 2010 4:45pm
time to buy?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdcad-daily-07042010.jpg Size: 94 KB
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #135
  • Apr 7, 2010 5:11pm Apr 7, 2010 5:11pm
Quoting Olu
time to buy?
looks like a good setup to me...only thing I would note, if you do go long...make sure price can clear the 1.0065 level because if you look left it looks like it was a prior support area that was broken and could be resistance.

Goodluck and May the Pips Be With You!
  • #136
  • Apr 7, 2010 5:42pm Apr 7, 2010 5:42pm
Quoting Tw0eleven
looks like a good setup to me...only thing I would note, if you do go long...make sure price can clear the 1.0065 level because if you look left it looks like it was a prior support area that was broken and could be resistance.

Goodluck and May the Pips Be With You!
thanks for your comment. Will look out for that support turned resistance... I had high hopes for usdcad ie thought it was going to the moon till it turned and went to the centre of the earth
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #137
  • Apr 8, 2010 9:05am Apr 8, 2010 9:05am
Quoting freedomsg
Hi 211, GU in at side way now. All the MAs are close to each other. And it is forming a Triangle now. Waiting to break the triangle and close above / below the MAs and decide. Daily TF is below 200 MA, still a downtrend to me. Patience is the game.
Till waiting.... it is near the corner....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu.gif Size: 24 KB
  • #138
  • Edited 5:15pm Apr 8, 2010 5:12pm | Edited 5:15pm
the gbpusd as it stands now
A bit of exuberance in the asian markets and we will have a breakout to the upside.

We have a cross up on the MAs.
MAs bunched together
macd turning up
macd histogram above 0

All the components for a long trade
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd-4h-08042010-2305.jpg Size: 95 KB
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #139
  • Edited 9:27pm Apr 9, 2010 12:45am | Edited 9:27pm
Quoting Olu
the gbpusd as it stands now
A bit of exuberance in the asian markets and we will have a breakout to the upside.

We have a cross up on the MAs.
MAs bunched together
macd turning up
macd histogram above 0

All the components for a long trade
I would agree...I'd also like to say I'm human and take losses just like everyone else. I tried going short GU this morning when it looked like it was making Lower Highs and Macd was heading down and MA's were down...but the market taught me another less! Onto the next!
  • #140
  • Apr 9, 2010 9:24pm Apr 9, 2010 9:24pm
I had to work today, so didn't get to see this...but just going over the charts, did anyone get this EU long setup???
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu4hr011.gif Size: 27 KB
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