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Attachments: Odds are with a 4hr KISS
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Odds are with a 4hr KISS

  • #101
  • Mar 31, 2010 9:06am Mar 31, 2010 9:06am
Quoting fthingf
Right I exited at the close you mentioned. Looks like I really need to look into fine tuning my entry next time. Lesson learned!
I think you're doing great fthingf...really picking up how this method works! To be honest, even if you waited for a pullback on eu(after the engufling candle) and entered it still would have been a loss. I'll be the first to admit this method is NOT 100% winners. We just try to pick the best setups we can and then it's up to the market to decide where it goes. As with learning any new way to trade, it takes time. The best thing I have seen from the trades you have posted is that you are taking small losses(less than 50pips)!!! A lot of traders don't know how to do that and end up taking HUGE losses thinkin the market will turn in their favor if they just hold on a little longer. Keep up the good work!

211
  • #102
  • Mar 31, 2010 9:10am Mar 31, 2010 9:10am
Quoting Olu
A missed trade in the usdchf turned out to be a blessing after all because I would have gunned for 50pips.
Olu, my best advice on Taking profits...get to know what the average daily ranges are for the pairs you trade. And then typically go for about half of that for your profits. Say for example the GU puts in 100pip range each day...only look for 50pips profit. I mean honestly, how often can a trader(professional or not) enter the market at the exact perfect Low or High of a trade and exit at the exact High or Low and capure ALL 100pips of the move??? You might get lucky once in a while...but I don't like trading on luck...I might as well go to Las Vegas and try my luck there too! This advice is for everyone...use realistic goals! Happy trading!

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  • #103
  • Mar 31, 2010 9:46am Mar 31, 2010 9:46am
Quoting Tw0eleven
Olu,...
Hi 211 Thanks for your comments. I already use ATR in my trading but what I meant was that the trade turned out to be a loser type almost from the get go. It just could not stay above 1.0680.

By the way your trade in the early morning (UK time) was superb. We were all waiting for a retracement to the 40 area in the eurousd. one way or the other I still missed the trade. I thought the retracement would be more.

Great thread and thanks to all that kept the discussion going early this morning (UK time)
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #104
  • Mar 31, 2010 9:59am Mar 31, 2010 9:59am
Quoting Olu
Hi 211 Thanks for your comments. I already use ATR in my trading but what I meant was that the trade turned out to be a loser type almost from the get go. It just could not stay above 1.0680.

By the way your trade in the early morning (UK time) was superb. We were all waiting for a retracement to the 40 area in the eurousd. one way or the other I still missed the trade. I thought the retracement would be more.

Great thread and thanks to all that kept the discussion going early this morning (UK time)
Better to have missed a trade than take a loser right? And I just want everyone to keep in mind that you can NOT be focused on exact price levels when waiting for entry points. Take the EU last night for example...if you are waiting for it to pullback to 1.3440, remember price could stop 10-15pips prior. I recommend setting some type of alarm that will alert you to start watching the charts when price comes within 10-20pips of where you want to enter. One more thing, the moving averages will move after each candle close...so what might have been the 1.3440 area on EU last night, after a couple candle closes it could now be at 1.3430(so you might want to start watching the charts around 1.3420ish). Happy Trading!

211
  • #105
  • Mar 31, 2010 10:54am Mar 31, 2010 10:54am
211

once again thanks for your advice. hope you will be around early tomorrow morning
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #106
  • Mar 31, 2010 11:21am Mar 31, 2010 11:21am
Well, some people got the EU short last night for 30pips...unless you were trying for 50, then you most likely took a loss.

However, it's interesting to see that after the short signal...we got a long signal right afterwards. For those of your familiar with Tweezers(also known as railroad track pattern)...here's what I see that would have been a nice profitable. Unfortunately I was sleeping when this setup, so I didn't take it. But it's a great example to look at!

***side note****the only think that would make me think twice about this trade is that price closed below the 20ma, instead of above it...so I might have waited to see it go above before entering.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu4hr009.gif Size: 25 KB
  • #107
  • Mar 31, 2010 11:43am Mar 31, 2010 11:43am
Friends,

Clearly if we are going to wait for a retrace prior to an entry, we can take the entry on a (near) touch of the MAs.

However, if one is just entering on a 'clear' 1-2-3 set-up should we move into the position at a bar close or when it all appears.

For instance, if we are mid-four hour candle and we see a pin bar developing coupled with a recent MA cross and correctly moving MACD bars, would you take entry then? Of course, the pin bar could go away by the end of the candle, but, then again, it could continue up to a TP?

Whither go we? What is the optimal protocol?

Forest
  • #108
  • Mar 31, 2010 12:08pm Mar 31, 2010 12:08pm
Quoting Forest-Sea
Friends,

Clearly if we are going to wait for a retrace prior to an entry, we can take the entry on a (near) touch of the MAs.

However, if one is just entering on a 'clear' 1-2-3 set-up should we move into the position at a bar close or when it all appears.

For instance, if we are mid-four hour candle and we see a pin bar developing coupled with a recent MA cross and correctly moving MACD bars, would you take entry then? Of course, the pin bar could go away by the end of the candle, but, then again, it could continue up to a TP?

Whither...

For me, I MUST wait for candle close to get the Pinbar, Engulfing candle, Tweezers, etc... AFTER I get one of those patterns and confirm that the MA's are crossing and MACD agrees...then I decide if I should enter right away(candle close) OR if I need to wait for a pullback. And that decision comes from 1) Risk..is my risk greater than 50pips...then i should probably wait for a pullback. 2) Also, engulfing candles "typically" give pullbacks...so you reduce risk by waiting for a pullback if price isn't close t the ma's.

Hope that helps! You must be flexible in this market.

211
  • #109
  • Mar 31, 2010 1:16pm Mar 31, 2010 1:16pm
Quoting Tw0eleven
For me, I MUST wait for candle close to get the Pinbar, Engulfing candle, Tweezers, etc... AFTER I get one of those patterns and confirm that the MA's are crossing and MACD agrees...then I decide if I should enter right away(candle close) OR if I need to wait for a pullback. And that decision comes from 1) Risk..is my risk greater than 50pips...then i should probably wait for a pullback. 2) Also, engulfing candles "typically" give pullbacks...so you reduce risk by waiting for a pullback if price isn't close t the ma's.

This is what my prior 'training' in the forex University of Hard Knocks tells me, but I wanted to be sure you were running your system this way.

Thanks.

Forest
  • #110
  • Mar 31, 2010 9:55pm Mar 31, 2010 9:55pm
Quoting Tw0eleven
For me, I MUST wait for candle close to get the Pinbar, Engulfing candle, Tweezers, etc... AFTER I get one of those patterns and confirm that the MA's are crossing and MACD agrees...then I decide if I should enter right away(candle close) OR if I need to wait for a pullback. And that decision comes from 1) Risk..is my risk greater than 50pips...then i should probably wait for a pullback. 2) Also, engulfing candles "typically" give pullbacks...so you reduce risk by waiting for a pullback if price isn't close t the ma's.
Good summary, and I learned my lesson about waiting for pullback after the engulfing candle in last trade. Won't forget that next time!

Btw, 211, thanks for the encouragement!
  • #111
  • Mar 31, 2010 10:42pm Mar 31, 2010 10:42pm
Quoting fthingf
Good summary, and I learned my lesson about waiting for pullback after the engulfing candle in last trade. Won't forget that next time!

Btw, 211, thanks for the encouragement!
Not a problem! I started this thread in hopes of passing on some wisdom that I learned from forexfactory the last few years. And I hope people make money with this method, not lose it. The only problem with that is you sit 5 traders down in front of the same chart and you'll get 5 different viewpoints of what price is doing. But I'm happy to see some are getting it!
  • #112
  • Apr 1, 2010 10:42am Apr 1, 2010 10:42am
It's been quite a while since I've seen such strong uptrends on GU, EU, GJ, EJ that produce little to no entries. And I don't see anything setting up anytime soon, especially with NFP tomorrow(I won't be trading that). So have a good weekend everyone and see you next week! Happy Easter!
  • #113
  • Apr 1, 2010 7:50pm Apr 1, 2010 7:50pm
Hi, tw0eleven:

Thank you very much to share your idea. I like to have your new MACD for my chart. But when I downloaded it, it gave me an "attahment.php" file instead your newMACD.mq4 fiel. What did I do wrong? How can I download it? Please help. Thanks.
  • #114
  • Apr 1, 2010 8:27pm Apr 1, 2010 8:27pm
Quoting Tw0eleven
Speaking of EU in my previous post...I saw this setup early today, but waited to post it to give you guys a chance to possible post it before me. Hope someone caught it!


Hi,

I was wondering where is the histogram on you MACD? Also on one of your charts you took a long position before the emas had crossed. Can you pleas explain?

Thanks
  • #115
  • Apr 1, 2010 8:31pm Apr 1, 2010 8:31pm
Nice thread OP. But shouldn't you make the same rules for exit?? So you can get more pips? Taking 30-40 pips out of 4 Hr trend is very low reward. You can check about volataility exit using ATR or you can exit on 5/20 MA cross. But very good entry indeed.
  • #116
  • Apr 3, 2010 5:25am Apr 3, 2010 5:25am
Hi 211 and fellow traders

I went thru all the posts 2x. I like the pace as it is 4 hr. My wife actually asked me to get married to my laptop as my eyes were glued to the monitor always. Rigth now, I have to learned to have some time off the monitor as I have to work in the day and can only monitor the market at night. With the 4 hr tf, I can take thing slowly. I will post my chart when there is a setup. I must learn to be patient. Thank you guys.
  • #117
  • Apr 3, 2010 6:37pm Apr 3, 2010 6:37pm
Quoting Tw0eleven
It's been quite a while since I've seen such strong uptrends on GU, EU, GJ, EJ that produce little to no entries. And I don't see anything setting up anytime soon, especially with NFP tomorrow(I won't be trading that). So have a good weekend everyone and see you next week! Happy Easter!
TW,
thanks for bringing it back down to KISS. I think patience is the key. One signal a day or two in any pair is good for me.
  • #118
  • Apr 4, 2010 5:27am Apr 4, 2010 5:27am
Hi there Tw0eleven
Just stumbled over your tread. Interesting to see that you are using an almost similar approach as I'm using on my live account since Dec 09

How's your stats?
On my side from 1 DEC 09 I have a hit rate of 81% with an average of 45,97 pips + and 50,82 pips -. However I'm working with my exits as I can see that the potential on the + side is larger than what i have achieved.

Anyway, continues god trading to you.
  • #119
  • Apr 4, 2010 2:24pm Apr 4, 2010 2:24pm
Quoting Richzdfo0
Hi, tw0eleven:

Thank you very much to share your idea. I like to have your new MACD for my chart. But when I downloaded it, it gave me an "attahment.php" file instead your newMACD.mq4 fiel. What did I do wrong? How can I download it? Please help. Thanks.
Hi Rich,

I'm not sure what's wrong with it...it looks good to me and haven't had any other complaints. If anyone else has had trouble let me know and I'll look further into it. As for now, maybe try downloading it again? Let me know!

211
  • #120
  • Apr 4, 2010 2:29pm Apr 4, 2010 2:29pm
Quoting forex4me
Hi,

I was wondering where is the histogram on you MACD? Also on one of your charts you took a long position before the emas had crossed. Can you pleas explain?

Thanks
Hi forex4me,

The macd histogram is the Purple lines in the macd indicator...while the red&blue lines are the macd moving average lines I talk about.

As for the ema's...sometime I will take a trade just as the ema's are about to cross if there is a good angle on the 5ema. I won't do it too early, but once you study the charts and get a feel for things...you will be able to tell usually when you are 1 candle away from the 5/20 emas just about to completely cross. Hope that helps!

211
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