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  • #223,221
  • Apr 9, 2010 4:34pm Apr 9, 2010 4:34pm
Quoting malcolmb14
sellers beware on euro now classic shakes out under 1,3500 . Been long since 1.3375 target 1.3800 next week

something is cooking

gj massive 60 min volumeo n drop
eu ripping
gu massive volume on 60 min on drop to 1.5320 .. expecting 1.5800

es .... massive buying today and not looking back

On the other hand check out the weekly line chart, when in the past eur was falling of a cliff on a bigger scale Eur hardly ever reversed without a second dip, so far there was just 1, again line chart. Secondly, weekly trend line still there. Next, futures for whatever reason didn't close above 1.351 and spot below 1.35 As I mentioned earlier after failure break of 1.3266 1.35/1 re-test was to be expected.

I am fully aware of early signs of a potential double bottom, which hasn't matured yet, weekly though leaves some questions. For sure I wouldn't be going long here, just yet perhaps.

http://www.dormantrading.com/TraderT...null&type=AREA
Prices oscillate, trends persist. Trend is your friend.
  • #223,222
  • Apr 9, 2010 4:34pm Apr 9, 2010 4:34pm
Quoting Buckscoder
Well, I do not exactly know about your trades. I wish you just luck, anyways. Hopefully you have not much rollback charges.

Please let me add: The eu will in my opinion not let Greece go out of the euro. If they would do that, the euro would break. The politicians in the eu have too much greed for power. The taxpayer has no choice and so the rotten bills go to the taxpayers. That's always the same.

What they are all saying at the news is just babbling. They decided already how it goes. A new bailout tax may in the make. Not called like this,...
Earth saving tax. And citizens have no choice but to pay it! In regards to my trades. I'll be straight. Even if I don't hedge, and let the sl hit, just a drop in the bucket. Like I said back in a December post, only mini lots. I'm down about 500 (5 dollars a pip), but I've been killingthe market since the March uptrend of last year, so I guess I'm due to give back a little. Had I not been sleep, I would have hedged this thing at -50 pips with a trailer, but it is what it is.
All that is left in FF is just plain garbage. "Cloggie"
  • #223,223
  • Apr 9, 2010 4:36pm Apr 9, 2010 4:36pm
Quoting tonyo524
EU newcomer Bulgaria meanwhile delivered a second shock to the euro zone by delaying plans to join the currency after admitting that, like Greece, it had lied about its 2009 deficit. CNBC

And I thought that we had some liers over here in the U.S!
Oh, you have for sure. But it's still a paradise. In the eu the ppl pay more than 8 to 10 bucks now with the shrinking euro for 1 gallon of gas. 75% ist just tax. So it goes with many other things. I have no car in europe anymore, because I save a lot with this. Just a truck in the us. Much cheaper tax and gas. Plus if you see that gas is the blood of the economy, you may imagine how expensive other goods in Europe are right now. All just related to cheating politicians and inflation.

edit: Yeah my account was also higher, but I had to give back. Well, it's just a matter of time. At least I can keep my level now since weeks in this crappy market stage and if we enter a clear visible trend again, it might go up a bit. I just learn and watch. Ranging account right now with strong uptrend bias.
Sometimes I lose. Sometimes the others win.
  • #223,224
  • Apr 9, 2010 4:37pm Apr 9, 2010 4:37pm
Quoting Buckscoder
I see a broken big big big tl. Not sure if my drawing art is precise enough, .
well, that's a little weak imo, not "big big big" if i'm understanding your chart correctly.

in any event, "breaking any TL on any TF on a friday close to a volatile week with lots of stuff still up in the air on the funnymental side by just a handful of pips isn't anything I'd trade under ANY circumstrances. Looks like your candle peeked above the TL by maybe a half dozen pips at most, those grid lines are pretty confusing tho, so if I'm mistaken, my bad.

Pierce maybe... break? Not so much. Gotta Break and Clear in my book or it's still in play.

Either way, follow on PA (hopefully) sometime in the NY session Monday should tell the tale one way or the other. That's the soonest I'd position trade anything at this point, and even then it'll take some confirmation of some kind.
FUBAR...
  • #223,225
  • Apr 9, 2010 4:45pm Apr 9, 2010 4:45pm
Quoting Buckscoder
Some post tls with only one point confirmation. Is that funny or just wishful thinking? A tl needs minimum 2 points to lock it and 3 and more are only better. But one point is a big bs and no tl.
With all due respect buddy you are wrong. One of my favorite tool is the parrallel channel, it is a wonderful thing to work with and it works to the pip sometimes. I can give a whole bunch of examples, here is the latest most important one: #387

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: example.gif Size: 22 KB
  • #223,226
  • Apr 9, 2010 4:46pm Apr 9, 2010 4:46pm
Quoting ak4x
well, that's a little weak imo, not "big big big" if i'm understanding your chart correctly.

in any event, "breaking any TL on any TF on a friday close to a volatile week with lots of stuff still up in the air on the funnymental side by just a handful of pips isn't anything I'd trade under ANY circumstrances. Looks like your candle peeked above the TL by maybe a half dozen pips at most, those grid lines are pretty confusing tho, so if I'm mistaken, my bad.

Pierce maybe... break? Not so much. Gotta Break and Clear in my book or it's still...
Sry that might be my bad. I meant the big big big tl and not the break as big. I see it like you. Not really a strong confirmation. Anyways, would you go short now based on this?

Edit: @coke Thanks a lot for your opinion. Looks convincing. I learned something new.
Sometimes I lose. Sometimes the others win.
  • #223,227
  • Apr 9, 2010 5:01pm Apr 9, 2010 5:01pm
Quoting Buckscoder
Anyways, would you go short now based on this?
Nope.

I would expect stop running a'rd the Open above the TL before it dropped and so that rules out a tight stop. Gaps are an easy way to lose some Coin if on the wrong side.

I wouldn't short with a large stop either as current PA makes that iffy as well if it continues. Confirmation is a very cost effective technique...

I don't trade Fridays anymore unless (MAYBE) it's the early NY/late London sesion, and then it's usually cuz I'm just mopping up some mess I got myself into on Thursday...

I usually don't trade the Sunday (US) Open for the same reasons
FUBAR...
  • #223,228
  • Apr 9, 2010 5:10pm Apr 9, 2010 5:10pm
OKAY !


Market has seen its CLOSING now.


I have loaded just one unimportant pos. at a limit rate of 3496 'accidently' - because I have forgotten to cancel this LIMIT. Nicht weiter wichtig - aber ich wollte im Grunde gar nichts mehr im Körbchen haben. But market can go where it wants to go - that has no influence on my strategies - as I can always absorb such an order - even when the market would go more than ten big figueres away from here - it would not change nearly nothing to my kind of views.

It costs me one phone call - and they would even take it out afterwards / einfach annullieren - I must not wait for a level to be filled for that.


So what / egal !


EUR-USD :


I have got O-H-L-C as follows :


1.3361 Open

1.3499 High

1.3341 Low

1.33965 Close / Clôture / Last / Letzter Schlußkurs




Just if you like - you can compare - theese are pure real INTERBANK rates - they can differ a little bit from those that your platforms are providing.


Depends on yours and your brokers connections to the market



Schönes Wochenende !



bibib
2013-07-31 Today's Phrase of the Day: Hold off from any recycle bin experts
  • #223,229
  • Apr 9, 2010 5:13pm Apr 9, 2010 5:13pm
@ak4x,

that with confirmation can I confirm with my robot. No trade without confirmation and 34 profits and 0 losses. Not too bad rr ratio.

That with the Thursday mess I can understand very well, lol. Seems I am not the only one. But not only at Thursdays. Also Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday and Sa/Su exception only because I can't trade then.

But to be honest, that keeps us trading, right? If it would be too easy, it would be .
Sometimes I lose. Sometimes the others win.
  • #223,230
  • Apr 9, 2010 5:16pm Apr 9, 2010 5:16pm
Quoting mercy seat
.... But market can go where it wants to go - that has no influence on my strategies - as I can always absorb such an order - even when the market would go more than ten big figueres away from here - it would not change nearly nothing to my kind of views.

It costs me one phone call -
So... you just here slummin with the peasants then? Or did you have a point in there somewhere ?
FUBAR...
  • #223,231
  • Apr 9, 2010 5:31pm Apr 9, 2010 5:31pm
Ok folks, I'll also look for other things now. Y'all have a great weekend and nice thread here with a lot to learn. Thx for every opinion!

May the pips be with us next week again.
Sometimes I lose. Sometimes the others win.
  • #223,232
  • Apr 9, 2010 5:39pm Apr 9, 2010 5:39pm
Quoting ak4x
So... you just here slummin with the peasants then? Or did you have a point in there somewhere ?
No no - not dedicated to you. Just feel free to ignore. No relevance. Neither to positioning nor to nothing else. Keine Relevanz!

Ok ? !
2013-07-31 Today's Phrase of the Day: Hold off from any recycle bin experts
  • #223,233
  • Apr 9, 2010 6:07pm Apr 9, 2010 6:07pm
Quoting Buckscoder
Ok folks, I'll also look for other things now. Y'all have a great weekend and nice thread here with a lot to learn. Thx for every opinion!

May the pips be with us next week again.
nice to see a new face here, have a good weekend too.
hang on to your bread......unless you want toast
  • #223,234
  • Apr 9, 2010 6:34pm Apr 9, 2010 6:34pm
June contract lower than spot right now by about 8 pip , as contrcta expiration comes close futures will close the gap. I trade the futures not the spot.

Quoting jsspmk
On the other hand check out the weekly line chart, when in the past eur was falling of a cliff on a bigger scale Eur hardly ever reversed without a second dip, so far there was just 1, again line chart. Secondly, weekly trend line still there. Next, futures for whatever reason didn't close above 1.351 and spot below 1.35 As I mentioned earlier after failure break of 1.3266 1.35/1 re-test was to be expected.

I am fully aware of early signs of a potential double bottom, which hasn't matured yet, weekly though leaves some questions. For sure I wouldn't...
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #223,235
  • Apr 9, 2010 6:49pm Apr 9, 2010 6:49pm
Quoting mercy seat
OKAY !


Market has seen its CLOSING now.


I have loaded just one unimportant pos. at a limit rate of 3496 'accidently' - because I have forgotten to cancel this LIMIT. Nicht weiter wichtig - aber ich wollte im Grunde gar nichts mehr im Körbchen haben. But market can go where it wants to go - that has no influence on my strategies - as I can always absorb such an order - even when the market would go more than ten big figueres away from here - it would not change nearly nothing to my kind of views.

It costs me one phone call - and...
What are you talking about?
  • #223,236
  • Apr 9, 2010 7:10pm Apr 9, 2010 7:10pm
Quoting TheLastCoke
With all due respect buddy you are wrong. One of my favorite tool is the parrallel channel, it is a wonderful thing to work with and it works to the pip sometimes. I can give a whole bunch of examples, here is the latest most important one: #387

Attachment

parallel channels are the only channels i use....for one reason: they are respected the most within a trend and can be used on any chart from monthly to minute with a high degree of success. Like you said, very very accurate entries will be made when using these correctly, and they will literally change anyones trading for the better imo.
  • #223,237
  • Apr 9, 2010 7:40pm Apr 9, 2010 7:40pm
ok we either touch 3621 before we make a new low or i quit because i do not konw a thing about trading
  • #223,238
  • Apr 9, 2010 7:41pm Apr 9, 2010 7:41pm
I use MT4, are parallel channels the same thing as Equidistant channels? Thanks Mfoste1.

Quoting mfoste1
parallel channels are the only channels i use....for one reason: they are respected the most within a trend and can be used on any chart from monthly to minute with a high degree of success. Like you said, very very accurate entries will be made when using these correctly, and they will literally change anyones trading for the better imo.
In Charts We Trust!
  • #223,239
  • Edited 9:18pm Apr 9, 2010 9:00pm | Edited 9:18pm
Hey guys, I was away today and glad I was flat today.
I closed all my shorts yesterday/ last night, but should have done it
BEFORE which is partly why I'm making this post.



How to identify potential reversals *BEFORE* they occure:
-----------------------------------------------------------
This post and case study is as much for my own benefit as for anyone elses. I
clearly need to practise this method much more ;=)

This method is easy and can be really useful, and many times alert you ahead of
bigger reversals. I'm sure many of you are using macd and rsi to spot this, but
for those who does not, here's a way to potentially avoid severly bad sell/buy
entries as well as closing open trades *before* the damage is done and grows bigger.

It has worked many times for me and given me great shorting points several times
this year, but admittely I need to become better at spotting them and also trust them,
thus making this post and hopefully some of you can learn from it as as well.


This usually works for both bottom and top reversals and can best be spotted
on H1 and M30 time frames, and sometimes also H4.
I'll also add that it's not allways easy to identify these reversals, sometimes its very
clear and other times a bit unclear, but perhaps enough to be alert and extra cautious
about what might happen.


As an example, one day before yesterdays reversal, I posted this:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...stcount=221863

No one commented on this ;-)



First chart is how recent reversal from the 1.3282 low could be seen in advance.
I did not predict how big of a reversal and was not alert enough so shame on me,
but I avoided bigger losses.


1. First indication (pre-forecast). See blue lines.
Price make a new low, but macd is much higher than the previous low.
You can also see that bear pa is gradually loosing power. Something is brewing.
No more shorting should be allowed if we spot this pattern.


2. See red lines. Same case, stronger signal. Again a new low, (bottom),
70 pips lower than the previous low. Macd.strongly disagree .
Time to take extra care and follow pa closely.

In the future I'll def. take profit when this shows up and wait. If it goes lower later it's better to short after it
has breaked through major r/s levels.

3. RSI breaks trendline, confirming some sort of retrace, but is it real or false?

4. Macd breaks to upside as a final confirmation of the up move.

The rest is history as price so far has gone up 216 pips from the 1.3282 low.
Right now, there's no indication of any reversal down again on any charts. In fact,
on H4 macd is just about to break to upside. If it does, remains to see.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: h1-1.gif Size: 28 KB





Here's another example which forecasted a 150 pip drop. The up move after
was spottet on the m30 macd.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: h1-2.gif Size: 27 KB





Slightly different scenario, but something is not correct. A much higher high but macd failed to follow.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: h1-3.gif Size: 30 KB





Finally, the great fall from 1.45 where I caught trades of 400-700 pips, plus many more.
This was extreme. A clear and idiot proof indication. See my short entry. Added
several more.below.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...stcount=181287




Comments and suggestions for improvements are most welcome.


.
  • #223,240
  • Apr 9, 2010 10:21pm Apr 9, 2010 10:21pm
divergences.

Quoting enterfx
Hey guys, I was away today and glad I was flat today.
I closed all my shorts yesterday/ last night, but should have done it
BEFORE which is partly why I'm making this post.



How to identify potential reversals *BEFORE* they occure:
-----------------------------------------------------------
This post and case study is as much for my own benefit as for anyone elses. I
clearly need to practise this method much more ;=)

This method is easy and can be really useful, and many times alert you ahead of
bigger reversals. I'm sure many of...
Its all in the mind.
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