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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #1,481
  • Apr 8, 2010 7:26pm Apr 8, 2010 7:26pm
I am a big candlestick trader and as there are no Candles to go short just yet on E/U on the H4, H1, 15min it will probably go as Amy and Shahab have pointed out. 1.3393 or to the 150ma on my H1.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU.jpg Size: 113 KB
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #1,482
  • Apr 8, 2010 7:54pm Apr 8, 2010 7:54pm
Quoting Tuner
Maybe the coffee helps..or just lookin a bit longer at the charts.. zooming in and out a bit. But think you can handle those small losses.
But the next time I will allow myself to "veto" on your trades if I see them in time
what I was wondering.. you don't do the forex for your livin (yet)?
means not as your full-time job? as you said you go to uni...

Judging from your analysis (and your results) you are definitely a pro.
How many hours a day can or do you spend for tradin?
would sure be interesting to hear.

Regards, Tuner
you should definitively do that , like what Marc did.
as you said I took a loss when I'm wrong and I move on as simple as it is.
I'm good at closing the losers , playing the odds and probability is the key.

well answering your question I'm not a pro and wont be in near future.
working on my degree Biostat/Epi , need to take some board exams soon.
about trading ,it comes naturally and charting is the easiest thing to do for me (may be it's easy for lots of people too, I don't know that)
I've been trading and posting too much lately as I gained something that I wanted to share with others.
about hrs , if you set your orders in advance and do the analysis one or twice a day it wont take more than 1-2 hrs a day, but I've been posting here a lot lately and that's very time consuming
  • #1,483
  • Apr 8, 2010 8:26pm Apr 8, 2010 8:26pm
A/U short .9280 Sl=20
  • #1,484
  • Apr 8, 2010 8:35pm Apr 8, 2010 8:35pm
Quoting puks
Sorry guys I dont have my charts as I am posting from work but I have reasons to believe EU will continue to grind higher as the week closes. Reasons:

1. Trichett hinted at a possible greek bailout at a rate lower than market - government lendingrate.
2. Weekend short covering.

I am not trying to fade the trend but when there is a high probability of getting a better short entry, why be in red trying to short on its way up?

As painful as it sounded, I didn't take AU short on the break belolw .9245-50 but my long entry missed by 4 pips at .9220....
Hi buddy, I understand the reason of your trades but I would like to suggest you to use two indicators to set your trade
1- daily pivot and S/R
2-weekly pivot and S/R
I think you already have them but you can use them more regularly to put your limit orders that will give you a better entry whether you are trading short or long
  • #1,485
  • Apr 8, 2010 8:53pm Apr 8, 2010 8:53pm
  •  Tuner
  • | Joined Nov 2009 | Status: Love it when a plan comes together | 709 Posts
Quoting shahab8b
...
..I'm good at closing the losers , playing the odds and probability is the key...
That is one big key for sure that most can't handle very well I think.
Some letting the losers run (instead of the winners) always hoping for the turn-around.

Lesson to learn: If one setup fails it fails.. next one to come.
As your results show the percentage of the winners and their amount make it up.

Biostat/Epi sounds pretty interesting! (Had to google for it first..as I never heard of it before )

Said that many times before I think..but I really appreciate you sharing your setups here with us..and spending the time for that.
The way of looking for entries with pending orders is a good thing.
made me starting to look at the charts another way (and is the right thing if you don't sit in front of your charts all day)

Trying to gain not just the pips from your calls but some skills myself!
and yes.. I had some setups the last days that I was just thinking of and drawing on my charts... then saw you posting it (or pretty similar to mine) on here. but still a long way to go for me...

I'm off to bed now..
See you!
-Tuner-
"Blue Horseshoe loves Anacott Steel!"
  • #1,486
  • Apr 9, 2010 1:42am Apr 9, 2010 1:42am
hi guys
seems eurusd is going to make a Head and shoulder pattern

maybe it find 1.3282 as a new support

http://www.forexrainbow.com/files/9w...rif3_thumb.jpg

good luck
  • #1,487
  • Apr 9, 2010 3:20am Apr 9, 2010 3:20am
Short GU at 1.5410-20. Stop at 1.5530 and TP at 1.5180. Reasons for trade:

a) 1.5420 is a 38.25 retracement of 1.64-1.4780.
b) Previous S and now a strong R.
c) 50% golden fib-fan level
d) about to form inverted head and shoulder on daily with neckline somewhere around 1.5420.

Chart attached.

quite attractive opportunity.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu-daily.gif Size: 23 KB
  • #1,488
  • Apr 9, 2010 3:32am Apr 9, 2010 3:32am
Quoting shahab8b
Hi patience , so do you think on Fri London/NY ,risk will be on?any reason or just ATR wise?
G'day Shahab - I wasn't taking risk into consideration although I had noted that risk was back on. Just ATR with charts saying there was room to move in these currencies if they wanted to.
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf Market_Strategy_Daily_9_Apr_2010.pdf   119 KB | 221 downloads
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #1,489
  • Apr 9, 2010 4:53am Apr 9, 2010 4:53am
E/U short from 1.3357 /97 SL hit (-40,-20=-60)
U/Chf long from 1.0730 SL hit (-30)
Short A/U from .9280 Sl hit (-20*2=-40)
  • #1,490
  • Apr 9, 2010 4:57am Apr 9, 2010 4:57am
open trade

long U/J from 92.90 (+75*2) SL>B/E
short G/U from 1.5370 got filled recently SL moved to 1.5400
  • #1,491
  • Apr 9, 2010 4:57am Apr 9, 2010 4:57am
Quoting Victory83
hi guys
seems eurusd is going to make a Head and shoulder pattern

maybe it find 1.3282 as a new support

http://www.forexrainbow.com/files/9w...rif3_thumb.jpg

good luck
good eye
  • #1,492
  • Apr 9, 2010 5:02am Apr 9, 2010 5:02am
You really don't want to get in the way of GU. This is why - very rare and very powerful candle formation.. this is a triple tweezer (normally two candles side by side, the wicks form the tweezers, but this one has three, very rare) ... highly reliable and explosive for north. Price will be driven with force in the opposite direction of the wicks, i.e. it will go north at speed.
Attached Image
  • #1,493
  • Apr 9, 2010 5:04am Apr 9, 2010 5:04am
Quoting Jade Gate
You really don't want to get in the way of GU. This is why - very rare and very powerful candle formation.. this is a triple tweezer (normally two candles side by side, the wicks form the tweezers, but this one has three, very rare) ... highly reliable and explosive for north. Price will be driven with force in the opposite direction of the wicks, i.e. it will go north at speed.
I AGREE!
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #1,494
  • Apr 9, 2010 5:05am Apr 9, 2010 5:05am
Quoting puks
Short GU at 1.5410-20. Stop at 1.5530 and TP at 1.5180. Reasons for trade:

a) 1.5420 is a 38.25 retracement of 1.64-1.4780.
b) Previous S and now a strong R.
c) 50% golden fib-fan level
d) about to form inverted head and shoulder on daily with neckline somewhere around 1.5420.

Chart attached.

quite attractive opportunity.

Hi mate,
good chart and set up. if you plan all your trades like this well in advance your result will be great
  • #1,495
  • Apr 9, 2010 5:08am Apr 9, 2010 5:08am
Quoting Jade Gate
You really don't want to get in the way of GU. This is why - very rare and very powerful candle formation.. this is a triple tweezer (normally two candles side by side, the wicks form the tweezers, but this one has three, very rare) ... highly reliable and explosive for north. Price will be driven with force in the opposite direction of the wicks, i.e. it will go north at speed.
hi Jade, what's the target for that pattern? any measured rule to see where it goes?
  • #1,496
  • Apr 9, 2010 5:11am Apr 9, 2010 5:11am
Quoting shahab8b
hi Jade, what's the target for that pattern? any measured rule to see where it goes?
Here's my interpretation... Weekly R2 or 150ma.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GU.jpg Size: 138 KB
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #1,497
  • Apr 9, 2010 5:11am Apr 9, 2010 5:11am
G/U

if it breaks the neckline, will give us some long potential

2nd chart my thoughts on last Sat
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu2xv.gif Size: 16 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gu2a.gif Size: 21 KB
  • #1,498
  • Apr 9, 2010 5:12am Apr 9, 2010 5:12am
Quoting shahab8b
hi Jade, what's the target for that pattern? any measured rule to see where it goes?
Expecting that it won't quit until it hits resis at 1.6000...but this formation is so powerful, it signals major trend reversal that can last for a year or more.
  • #1,499
  • Apr 9, 2010 5:16am Apr 9, 2010 5:16am
Quoting MarcVUM
Here's my interpretation... Weekly R2 or 150ma.
right, but it first needs to clear R at 1.5390-5400 area
  • #1,500
  • Apr 9, 2010 5:19am Apr 9, 2010 5:19am
Short USDCAD at parity. S/L 1.0040, TP 0.9960 and then 0.9920.

Reasons - Daily price is in Bollinger Band sell zone as per Kathy Lien.

CAD employment data is due in 40 mins which I am expecting to be good.

Good luck.

PS :- chart attached.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdcad-daily.gif Size: 33 KB
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