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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #1,461
  • Apr 8, 2010 6:09pm Apr 8, 2010 6:09pm
guys don't forget this Gold sell limit at 1159-60 , I've been waiting for it for some weeks
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  • #1,462
  • Apr 8, 2010 6:16pm Apr 8, 2010 6:16pm
G/U short has been taken at 1.5277- SL=30 pips, will clear at 30 pips profit

i changed SL to 15 pips, the reason is I took the trade betting on SL to hold, if it doesn't hold, no reason to stay short
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  • #1,463
  • Apr 8, 2010 6:23pm Apr 8, 2010 6:23pm
Quoting shahab8b
G/U short has been taken at 1.5277- SL=30 pips, will clear at 30 pips profit

i changed SL to 15 pips, the reason is I took the trade betting on SL to hold, if it doesn't hold, no reason to stay short
woops, I doubt that if holds anymore
  • #1,464
  • Apr 8, 2010 6:25pm Apr 8, 2010 6:25pm
Quoting shahab8b
woops, I doubt that if holds anymore
well that was quick -15*2=-30 pips
  • #1,465
  • Apr 8, 2010 6:28pm Apr 8, 2010 6:28pm
Quoting shahab8b
G/U short has been taken at 1.5277- SL=30 pips, will clear at 30 pips profit

i changed SL to 15 pips, the reason is I took the trade betting on SL to hold, if it doesn't hold, no reason to stay short
Seems like a bold move considering it broke the TL on the H4?
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When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #1,466
  • Apr 8, 2010 6:32pm Apr 8, 2010 6:32pm
  •  Tuner
  • | Joined Nov 2009 | Status: Love it when a plan comes together | 709 Posts
Quoting shahab8b
Hi tuner, sorry for my late response , I've just seen your post. I was in rush to go out in the morning and had a long day at Uni.

the diamond wouldn't be right if the price broke above 1.5235 , that was the reason I put my SL for the last G/U trade there and then close it at B/E as the bullish side went stronger than expected
Hey there Shahab,
No problem.. Now that your thread got pretty "crowed" it's hard to keep up with all our posts.
I was following some charts and the thread from my computer at work

Cashed in my shorts today @ 1.5150. Doesn't look we are ready for a final drop yet. 3 days in a row we bounced of that area (1.5130-40) staying above weekly pivot. So I'm not too convinced of shorting it anymore for the moment.
...as I am typing it spikes up a bit now.. did I miss any news-event tonight?
"Blue Horseshoe loves Anacott Steel!"
  • #1,467
  • Apr 8, 2010 6:34pm Apr 8, 2010 6:34pm
Picked up this possible trade from FX360. Although they are shooting for 9780 I'm shooting for 9870.
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When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #1,468
  • Apr 8, 2010 6:39pm Apr 8, 2010 6:39pm
Quoting MarcVUM
Seems like a bold move considering it broke the TL on the H4?

you are 100% right, I just came home and made 3 bad trades at the same time,
E/U U/Chf and G/U (G/U sl hit and the rest well in red)
  • #1,469
  • Apr 8, 2010 6:42pm Apr 8, 2010 6:42pm
Quoting shahab8b
you are 100% right, I just came home and made 3 bad trades at the same time,
E/U U/Chf and G/U (G/U sl hit and the rest well in red)
It happens! That typically happens to me when I roll out of bed and place trades without a cup of coffee first. I'm still learning not to make that mistake!
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #1,470
  • Apr 8, 2010 6:45pm Apr 8, 2010 6:45pm
Quoting Tuner
Hey there Shahab,
No problem.. Now that your thread got pretty "crowed" it's hard to keep up with all our posts.
I was following some charts and the thread from my computer at work

Cashed in my shorts today @ 1.5150. Doesn't look we are ready for a final drop yet. 3 days in a row we bounced of that area (1.5130-40) staying above weekly pivot. So I'm not too convinced of shorting it anymore for the moment.
...as I am typing it spikes up a bit now.. did I miss any news-event tonight?

yea, that trade was bad, but I think I needed it after some winners in a row, that brings me to the real life- that was a trade that they say "a lazy boy trade", open the chart and say oh, its up, good I short it!!!
so you guys should say something when I'm wrong, dont just watch me losing money
  • #1,471
  • Apr 8, 2010 6:48pm Apr 8, 2010 6:48pm
  •  Tuner
  • | Joined Nov 2009 | Status: Love it when a plan comes together | 709 Posts
Quoting MarcVUM
It happens! That typically happens to me when I roll out of bed and place trades without a cup of coffee first. I'm still learning not to make that mistake!

I know that mistake pretty well.. used to mess around while having the first cup of coffee. But I got away from that..after seein that they most went into the reds. lesson learnt
"Blue Horseshoe loves Anacott Steel!"
  • #1,472
  • Apr 8, 2010 6:52pm Apr 8, 2010 6:52pm
Quoting Tuner

I know that mistake pretty well.. used to mess around while having the first cup of coffee. But I got away from that..after seein that they most went into the reds. lesson learnt
yea next time I came home and turn on my laptop I should take a cup of coffee first and look at the charts, now I'm looking at E/U and smaller TF it was a clear bullish triangle , now I'm red 25*2 on that too
  • #1,473
  • Apr 8, 2010 6:54pm Apr 8, 2010 6:54pm
anyone long U/J here?
  • #1,474
  • Apr 8, 2010 6:55pm Apr 8, 2010 6:55pm
Quoting shahab8b
yea next time I came home and turn on my laptop I should take a cup of coffee first and look at the charts, now I'm looking at E/U and smaller TF it was a clear bullish triangle , now I'm red 25*2 on that too
I think EU will turn back down very soon, I took a short at 1.3380, I don't see it higher than 1.3402.
  • #1,475
  • Apr 8, 2010 7:02pm Apr 8, 2010 7:02pm
Quoting amyc
I think EU will turn back down very soon, I took a short at 1.3380, I don't see it higher than 1.3402.
I think the same, sa far as r at 1.3407 holds the pair is a sell, but I think the place to short it is weekly S1 at 1.3393 very good level
  • #1,476
  • Apr 8, 2010 7:03pm Apr 8, 2010 7:03pm
Quoting shahab8b
anyone long U/J here?
I am, I don't post much but follow your thread closely. You do a wonderful job.
  • #1,477
  • Apr 8, 2010 7:06pm Apr 8, 2010 7:06pm
Sorry guys I dont have my charts as I am posting from work but I have reasons to believe EU will continue to grind higher as the week closes. Reasons:

1. Trichett hinted at a possible greek bailout at a rate lower than market - government lendingrate.
2. Weekend short covering.

I am not trying to fade the trend but when there is a high probability of getting a better short entry, why be in red trying to short on its way up?

As painful as it sounded, I didn't take AU short on the break belolw .9245-50 but my long entry missed by 4 pips at .9220.

I will be entering CAD short prior to employment data trying aiming for parity and below.


Quoting amyc
I think EU will turn back down very soon, I took a short at 1.3380, I don't see it higher than 1.3402.
  • #1,478
  • Apr 8, 2010 7:07pm Apr 8, 2010 7:07pm
  •  Tuner
  • | Joined Nov 2009 | Status: Love it when a plan comes together | 709 Posts
Quoting shahab8b
yea next time I came home and turn on my laptop I should take a cup of coffee first and look at the charts, now I'm looking at E/U and smaller TF it was a clear bullish triangle , now I'm red 25*2 on that too
Maybe the coffee helps..or just lookin a bit longer at the charts.. zooming in and out a bit. But think you can handle those small losses.
But the next time I will allow myself to "veto" on your trades if I see them in time
what I was wondering.. you don't do the forex for your livin (yet)?
means not as your full-time job? as you said you go to uni...

Judging from your analysis (and your results) you are definitely a pro.
How many hours a day can or do you spend for tradin?
would sure be interesting to hear.

Regards, Tuner
"Blue Horseshoe loves Anacott Steel!"
  • #1,479
  • Apr 8, 2010 7:15pm Apr 8, 2010 7:15pm
Quoting Sierra8561
I am, I don't post much but follow your thread closely. You do a wonderful job.
hi there, thanx for the comment. but remember give all the trade ideas a thought and if they seem logical take them otherwise post your view
  • #1,480
  • Apr 8, 2010 7:18pm Apr 8, 2010 7:18pm
Quoting puks
Sorry guys I dont have my charts as I am posting from work but I have reasons to believe EU will continue to grind higher as the week closes. Reasons:

1. Trichett hinted at a possible greek bailout at a rate lower than market - government lendingrate.
2. Weekend short covering.

I am not trying to fade the trend but when there is a high probability of getting a better short entry, why be in red trying to short on its way up?
I don't think weekend short covering will take place this Friday. The chart below indicates that a move back down is much more likely. All those Fridays in February where massive short covering took place started from a position down by 1.3265 in the chart below and completed the move up that we had last night. Unless we move down to 1.3255 (April lows) before NY open today then I think it will keep moving down
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