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  • #222,641
  • Apr 8, 2010 8:17pm Apr 8, 2010 8:17pm
3340. If we break down there Euro's likely to go down faster than a hooker at a sex addict's convention. Keeping an eye on PA around the sl, of course.
  • #222,642
  • Apr 8, 2010 8:18pm Apr 8, 2010 8:18pm
....Don't let skizzer see this post.
FUBAR...
  • #222,643
  • Apr 8, 2010 8:19pm Apr 8, 2010 8:19pm
Quoting Mr Hatch
no, that's a former work-mate... he got seriously mad when i photoshoped homer into his silhouette. they matched 1:1
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: homer.jpg Size: 152 KB
  • #222,644
  • Apr 8, 2010 8:23pm Apr 8, 2010 8:23pm
Quoting ak4x
....Don't let skizzer see this post.
Oh, gawd! Can we delete it? Where did he go, anyway? I thought we were going straight to 3600? Like, now?
  • #222,645
  • Apr 8, 2010 8:26pm Apr 8, 2010 8:26pm
Quoting PriceVolume
Oh, gawd! Can we delete it? Where did he go, anyway? I thought we were going straight to 3600? Like, now?
nothing is forever...
  • #222,646
  • Apr 8, 2010 8:30pm Apr 8, 2010 8:30pm
Quoting Mr Hatch
nothing is forever...
I think you might have dodged a bullet hatch...not out of the woods yet, though. If we get back to your entry.....I wouldn't let it come back on you, at least without reducing your position to something more managable. But that's me....
  • #222,647
  • Apr 8, 2010 8:35pm Apr 8, 2010 8:35pm
Quoting PriceVolume
I think you might have dodged a bullet hatch...not out of the woods yet, though. If we get back to your entry.....I wouldn't let it come back on you, at least without reducing your position to something more managable. But that's me....
i promise. it happened to me once and it was a hell of ride. i shorted every single pip out of a retracement in order to keep the position alive. when we reached the entry, i closed it, only to see it drop more than 100 pips. lesson (not yet) learned i think.
  • #222,648
  • Apr 8, 2010 8:40pm Apr 8, 2010 8:40pm
Well, time for a nap....alarms set...have fun and trade safe all...
  • #222,649
  • Apr 8, 2010 8:42pm Apr 8, 2010 8:42pm
Quoting gatorinla
done

freaken alarm woke me..if no new high... bear #1 target 3276 ...mid 3321.5

sos with bounce

if were gonna retrace more

bull says #2 3367
#3 3413 #4 3447
im not sying were going here.. just posting what i got. ill post more bears if needed.. this may just be ping pong off 92.. pack a lunch

stocks are mixed some slightly green now..but fragile..oil is slightly red. so we may have found equiliberium with them.. so if oil spikes more then 85/90 stocks should go down.. magic number should be known soon
3321.5 invalid since we have a new h
new high 3383
i would get a semi if 3402 s/r capped upper moves.. tomorrow/today is friday. shit happens.. on the weekly we may have a double bottom unless a deep hole is punched in the floor.. i dont see it.. im being extremily careful. the trend is down so use proper r/r with the recent low.. dont let one get away.. the floor may be limited late in the week..

gbp
bear h 5303/ valid w/o new high
#1 5278
#2 5252
#3 5231
#4 5210
#5 5206
#6 5193
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #222,650
  • Apr 8, 2010 8:43pm Apr 8, 2010 8:43pm
Took a small sell at 62 Tight sl at 69, just in case it drift away down.

If we get stuck here, london may drive it up to moma bear before we head down again.
  • #222,651
  • Apr 8, 2010 8:45pm Apr 8, 2010 8:45pm
I have found something to read - while we are waiting for the moment to act guys.



EUR/USD - to consolidate with risks skewed higher. ECB yesterday left rates unchanged at 1%, confirmed it will extend period accepting lower-rated collateral from euro-zone banks, effectively allowing it to continue accepting higher-risk paper from Greek banks. EUR/USD supported by EUR demand for long-EUR carry trades on improved market risk appetite, ECB President Trichet's comments "default is not an issue for Greece", rescue scheme is "workable", while Greek Finance Ministry said country's 1Q10 budget deficit narrowed to EUR4.3 billion from EUR7.1 billion in 1Q09. But EUR sentiment dented by disappointing German February industrial production figures (flat vs forecast for 1.0% rise), weak euro-zone February retail sales (fell 0.6% on month for largest decline since December 2008, vs flat forecast). Data focus: 0600 GMT German February manufacturing turnover, 1530 GMT ECB's Trichet speaks. EUR/USD daily chart mixed as MACD & stochastics in bearish mode but bullish hammer candlestick pattern completed yesterday. Resistance at 1.3366 (yesterday's high), then at 1.3408 (Wednesday's high); breach would expose upside to 1.3496 (Tuesday's high), then 1.3538 (Monday's high), 1.3591 (April 2 reaction high) and 1.3634 (55-day moving average). Support at 1.3290 (hourly chart), then at 1.3278 (yesterday's low) and 1.3265 (10-month low hit March 25); breach would expose downside to psychological 1.3200, 1.3100 levels, then 1.3090 (76.4% Fibonacci retracement level of advance from March 4, 2009 low of 1.2455 to Nov. 25, 2009 high of 1.5144).



Full size article - see pdf-file below :


http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif



Bis später! Ich lege erst mal eine Pause ein. Erwarte Dips around 3339 - 20 at first. As long as above this area - we could see further upside correction - I think. Levels - I have mentioned already.


Nite!
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf 2010-04-09_ASIA DAILY FOREX OUTLOOK - Majors.pdf   12 KB | 197 downloads
2013-07-31 Today's Phrase of the Day: Hold off from any recycle bin experts
  • #222,652
  • Edited 8:47pm Apr 8, 2010 8:46pm | Edited 8:47pm
Quoting ak4x
Yeah you could say it's simple S/R but with a "past" or history that you can peer into. That's basically what the Psych levels are... the changing dynamic levels due to previous pivots or whatever may act the same but won't be static like a xx20, xx50, xx80 or xx00 level. When those converge with previous or current pivot levels you've got an amplified action goin on... watch it.

Seriously, if you plot pivots or fibs or even if you don't, you'll find price attracted to certain areas over and over and frequently displaying the same behavior....
AK- Wow- thanks man- that was great, I came over here from Nial Fullers forum (paid 3oo+) and I'm getting more here than there- He is all about PA and thats great but I like the blending of styles over here- I have not perfected my "plan" and honestly not sure if there such a thing- Maybe I'm crazy but I think simple psychology (actually relates to the repetitive pattern) you referred to happens over and over again- I'm a country boy in N Fl.- where you? dave
  • #222,653
  • Apr 8, 2010 8:51pm Apr 8, 2010 8:51pm
anyone know where malcolmb has been?
  • #222,654
  • Edited 9:15pm Apr 8, 2010 8:52pm | Edited 9:15pm
Here's a current 12 hr chart going back to mid March with a few things hi-lited. Hopefully it's self explanatory.

Shaded bars show retracement levels. The top RED one at 62% became the Swing High for the next one. The yellow one is a 23/38% convergence or close enough as don't matter... Support for those two bullish tweezers the first go a'rd and busted hard the second time a'rd with a retrace to (at least so far) the 38% of the smaller fib where we're currently 2 hrs into that bearish (for now) candle. It may or may not become confirmed Resistance but so far so good...

Current candle Opened at 7pm CST and will Close at 7am CST. Remember, it's a 12hr Open candle and should be respected accordingly. But it gives you something to correlate to on your own charts and Time Zones.

I'll say again that resistance at THAT 38% FIB LEVEL STILL REMAINS TO BE CONFIRMED!!

We're in the middle of that price cycle and will be until it completes... Don't get ahead of Mr Market!!

ON the other haand, if follow-on PA tends downward then adjust this picture in your head or on your charts accordingly and trade your analysis... Carefully as always.

I don't trade on Fridays but will be nursemaiding current orders as needed.

Two notes:
1- Just saw the right side fib is off a few pips, but nothing to worry about, It's broad brush strokes only.

2- The small yellow box on the lower fib anchor is a blooper, should have been a white circle. They highlite the fib anchors for clarity is all, too lazy to redo it.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 12 hr big pic.png Size: 82 KB
FUBAR...
  • #222,655
  • Apr 8, 2010 8:52pm Apr 8, 2010 8:52pm
Quoting mfoste1
anyone know where malcolmb has been?
He's around, check out the VSA thread.

DZ
  • #222,656
  • Apr 8, 2010 9:01pm Apr 8, 2010 9:01pm
Quoting gatorinla
3321.5 invalid since we have a new h
new high 3383
i would get a semi if 3402 s/r capped upper moves.. tomorrow/today is friday. shit happens.. on the weekly we may have a double bottom unless a deep hole is punched in the floor.. i dont see it.. im being extremily careful. the trend is down so use proper r/r with the recent low.. dont let one get away.. the floor may be limited late in the week..

gbp
bear h 5303/ valid w/o new high
#1 5278
#2 5252
#3 5231
#4 5210
#5 5206
#6 5193
euro h 3383 valid w/o new high
#1 3324
#2 3315
#3 3273
#4 3256

if you want the mid: calculate by subtracting target from high divide by 2 then add to target
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #222,657
  • Apr 8, 2010 9:05pm Apr 8, 2010 9:05pm
Quoting uraceulose
He's around, check out the VSA thread.

DZ
thanks donnie
  • #222,658
  • Apr 8, 2010 9:10pm Apr 8, 2010 9:10pm
Quoting gatorinla
euro h 3383 valid w/o new high
#1 3324
#2 3315
#3 3273
#4 3256

if you want the mid: calculate by subtracting target from high divide by 2 then add to target
the first target mid is 3353.5 its been hit with respect.. (current move bottom) this does not have the same hit % as a mid but its up there.. w/o any news blocking this we should get to 3324.. #1 + slip bounce ect.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #222,659
  • Apr 8, 2010 9:12pm Apr 8, 2010 9:12pm
China is very close to announcing a shift in its currency policy, the New York Times has reported.

The change would involve a "small but immediate" revaluation of the yuan and would permit the yuan to fluctuate more widely, the paper said.
The Hong Kong despatch quoted people with knowledge of the policy consensus emerging in Beijing.

It said the model for the upcoming shift was China's 2.1 percent revaluation of the yuan, also known as the renminbi, against the dollar in July 2005.
After that, the yuan was allowed to trade in a wider daily range, but with a trend toward further strengthening.

"For the upcoming announcement, however, China is likely to emphasise that the value of the renminbi can fall as well as rise on any given day, so as to discourage a flood of speculative investment into China betting on rapid further appreciation, they said," according to the New York Times.

The paper published the report online as US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner was arriving in Beijing for talks with Vice Premier Wang Qishan.
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #222,660
  • Apr 8, 2010 9:30pm Apr 8, 2010 9:30pm
Ok, I am still not convinced of anything. I just look and see a short term uptrend in the making. Trade still running with tight sl. Chart attached. The hammer on the D1 comes in place only if the next candle doesnt break the low of the hammer. Just to mention that, cause I did not read that here and it seems nobody was aware of that. So, it could be a strong hammer, if it becomes the lowest candle. If the next candle becomes a lower low, the hammer has not a strong effect.

Good nite and good trading all!
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