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  • #221,201
  • Apr 6, 2010 4:53pm Apr 6, 2010 4:53pm
Quoting gatorinla
im being cautios.. i dont wont to build this wedge anymore..just be aware. its the other usd crosses doing this. so any usd weakness or euro flex can be a hard lick..

Yeah, I noticed that and I also posted a USDX chart earlier today showing it stopped right at the 61.8% Fib retrace level. Also, the Eurx stopped right above that key area. I'm looking for a retrace and continue but I've got green pips locked in now.

I cashed out on some stuff earlier today so my carry right now isn't that heavy. The GU trade is low risk and I've got a stop sitting pretty close above yesterday's high so we'll see.

Thanks for posting that... I've got my eye on those two pairs (EURX & DX)
  • #221,202
  • Apr 6, 2010 4:54pm Apr 6, 2010 4:54pm
Quoting jsspmk
Measured 50% move between Hi-Lo=$90 p/b
yep.. but the trend is up on oil..i dont think it will hold. but there are experts smarter then me that think it will. along with other commodities.. when gas is 3$ pg in u.s. it may change, but were not there yet.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #221,203
  • Apr 6, 2010 4:54pm Apr 6, 2010 4:54pm
Quoting PriceVolume
I'm just giving you a hard time....accurately forecasting price AND time is one of the most difficult skills....only person that springs to mind able to consistently do it was Gann.

LOL Williams said Gann was a tool.
Prices oscillate, trends persist. Trend is your friend.
  • #221,204
  • Apr 6, 2010 4:58pm Apr 6, 2010 4:58pm
Quoting jsspmk
LOL Williams said Gann was a tool.
Perhaps. But he was a rich tool, wasn't he?
  • #221,205
  • Apr 6, 2010 4:59pm Apr 6, 2010 4:59pm
THE euro may drop to a 13-month low below $1.25 should it pass certain technical relationships, currency analysts in Tokyo said.


A chart of the single currency shows its 20- and 90-week moving averages are falling toward the 200-week indicator, suggesting that what is known as a "dead cross" pattern will be created.


This occurs when a short-term average drops below a longer-term one and signals a currency is poised to extend losses, said Yoh Nihei, trading group manager at Tokai Tokyo Securities.


"The euro may dip below $1.30 and test lower prices," Mr Nihei said. "The euro is still in a downtrend."
Disclaimer: Check your 1m charts
  • #221,206
  • Apr 6, 2010 5:00pm Apr 6, 2010 5:00pm
Quoting gatorinla
im being cautios.. i dont wont to build this wedge anymore..just be aware. its the other usd crosses doing this. so any usd weakness or euro flex can be a hard lick..
I know you were trading the EZ... Did you notice how it stopped on that trend line today? It's time for it to break or bounce on that pair fairly soon.
  • #221,207
  • Edited 5:05pm Apr 6, 2010 5:03pm | Edited 5:05pm
Hey Gator, was the water rocking around in your swimming pool Sunday. I saw a mad web site that said 7.2 in Baja and it moved the earth off its axis?

This has to be the National enquirer of CNN http://cnmnewsnetwork.com/16215/eart...shakes-mexico/
Founder of Sutherland Wave Principle
  • #221,208
  • Apr 6, 2010 5:06pm Apr 6, 2010 5:06pm
lets see how asian session breaks new on fomc, but we need a retracement of 1.3450 so sellers can get interested again. If we see a break above 1.35 i see another up channel forming so people can understand that us gov. doesnt want its currency that strong. They need to recover before get its dollar stronger.

The problem is that EUR is weaker than that, and they dont care abot their currency strong.

Even CHF intervene so they dont have CHF that strong.

Long on eurusd eurcad but really heavy on eurcad against everyone.
  • #221,209
  • Apr 6, 2010 5:08pm Apr 6, 2010 5:08pm
Quoting gatorinla
yep.. but the trend is up on oil..i dont think it will hold. but there are experts smarter then me that think it will. along with other commodities.. when gas is 3$ pg in u.s. it may change, but were not there yet.
I have a relative in commercial banking, that's an extract from his e-mail of November 2009:

I do not expect huge growth or drop in oil, however high volatility
is quite possible. Significant growth is not too probable since OPEC has
huge unrealized potential and will be happy it if they are happy with
prices. On the other hand in a inflation-waiting world low price combined
with stable or even not very fast growing stocks will attract lots of
investors in futures. My forecast is we're a approaching a long-term period
of comparatively stable oil prices in the range of 60-85 USD. Unexpected
drop of USD rate to 1,7 vs EUR may change this.
Prices oscillate, trends persist. Trend is your friend.
  • #221,210
  • Edited 5:54pm Apr 6, 2010 5:09pm | Edited 5:54pm
Last month was the highest volume showing, at least on CQG, yet the downward progress from the preceding month was not that great. All of that effort produced minimal results...a shot across the bow for shorts.

The range for last month's bar was the smallest since the decline from the November '09 high, again showing little net gain for sellers, and indicating buyers are entering which has prevented the range from extending lower.

The weekly chart echoes the potential for the low holding by probing under the February/March lows, and finding no more selling, has been holding. Given that the trend is down, one would expect to see a labored effort to turn price around, if it is to turn around from here. Currencies being what they are, any turnaround will not be advertised for long before price rallies and makes it more difficult to join... as one possibility.

Right now, the Euro is seeing the 25 March low being retested. What needs to happen is a successful retest that holds in the band of 133.50 - 132.60, followed by a show of rally ability that works higher.

This can be a pivitol area for Euro.
  • #221,211
  • Apr 6, 2010 5:09pm Apr 6, 2010 5:09pm
Quoting suthmo
Hey Gator, was the water rocking around in your swimming pool Sunday. I saw a mad web site that said 7.2 in Baja and it moved the earth off its axis?

This has to be the National enquirer of CNN http://cnmnewsnetwork.com/16215/eart...shakes-mexico/
I think Gator lives in LA as in Louisiana not Los Angeles.
  • #221,212
  • Apr 6, 2010 5:11pm Apr 6, 2010 5:11pm
Quote
us gov. doesnt want its currency that strong.

I would have to disagree with that assertion quite strongly..
  • #221,213
  • Apr 6, 2010 5:11pm Apr 6, 2010 5:11pm
euro usd is ok, but yen is looking to get back on the world, and with the euro being sold off heavily we can look for strong asian sessions...the chart agrees, trendlines heading down, if 125.75 holds, go short
  • #221,214
  • Apr 6, 2010 5:13pm Apr 6, 2010 5:13pm
Quoting siewhf
Last month was the highest volume showing, at least on CQG, yet the downward progress from the preceding month was not that great. All of that effort produced minimal results...a shot across the bow for shorts.

The range for last month's bar was the smallest since the decline from the November '09 high, again showing little net gain for sellers, and indicating buyers are entering which has prevented the range from extending lower.

The weekly chart echoes the potential for the low holding by
probing under the February/March lows, and finding no...
Good post.
Prices oscillate, trends persist. Trend is your friend.
  • #221,215
  • Apr 6, 2010 5:14pm Apr 6, 2010 5:14pm
Quoting suthmo
I saw a mad web site that said 7.2 in Baja and it moved the earth off its axis?...
the chilean quake moved the earth axis a couple inches and shortened the day a couple (at most) microseconds, the mexicali quake did none of those things. Closer proximity to the Pole (either one) like the chilean quake intensifies that likelihood... :nerd:
FUBAR...
  • #221,216
  • Apr 6, 2010 5:16pm Apr 6, 2010 5:16pm
hi guys.

does anyone know where i could find the eurx-chart in brocotrader?
  • #221,217
  • Apr 6, 2010 5:25pm Apr 6, 2010 5:25pm
Quoting ak4x
the chilean quake moved the earth axis a couple inches and shortened the day a couple (at most) microseconds, the mexicali quake did none of those things. Closer proximity to the Pole (either one) like the chilean quake intensifies that likelihood... :nerd:
it also cause the eurodollar to drop by one pip more than it should have.
  • #221,218
  • Apr 6, 2010 5:26pm Apr 6, 2010 5:26pm
Quoting ak4x
the chilean quake moved the earth axis a couple inches and shortened the day a couple (at most) microseconds, the mexicali quake did none of those things. Closer proximity to the Pole (either one) like the chilean quake intensifies that likelihood... :nerd:
Yeah I read the google headline that squashed the two incidents into one paragraph. I posted and then read the whole article and realized what I'd done. 3 hours sleep last night. Gator lives in gator country, figures. I was in LA in november and flew to England 80 degrees temp down to about 25, was B%t#h.
Founder of Sutherland Wave Principle
  • #221,219
  • Apr 6, 2010 5:30pm Apr 6, 2010 5:30pm

Quoting 2+2=4ex
it also cause the eurodollar to drop by one pip more than it should have.
Disclaimer: Check your 1m charts
  • #221,220
  • Apr 6, 2010 5:34pm Apr 6, 2010 5:34pm
Looking to buy EU at 1.336 .. These dramatic Greek scares are becoming tiresome.

Will buy EJ on another technically beautiful bounce off of the 38.2 with a tight stop and will try again at the 50% .. EJ will either re-attach to the gold and equity correlation or they will both crash to meet EJ.. I'd say the safer bet is that the uptrend will continue and that EJ will meet its compatriate instruments rather than they meet it.
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