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  • #220,601
  • Apr 5, 2010 3:50pm Apr 5, 2010 3:50pm
Quoting SkyzerFX
It's going up and if Discount Rate doesn't changed by tomorrow,

say: "goodbye" to EU shorts.
It is closing bellow daily, weekly and monthly pivots.
  • #220,602
  • Apr 5, 2010 3:54pm Apr 5, 2010 3:54pm
Quoting ^Sam
It is closing bellow daily, weekly and monthly pivots.
Several things I'm watching and focusing on: DOW/OIL

If Market drops with the commodities, you know what's going to happened.

P.S

OIL still sitting at resent highs..
Viewer Discretion Advised: Shall we shag now or should we shag later? :-)
  • #220,603
  • Apr 5, 2010 4:00pm Apr 5, 2010 4:00pm
lol for sure
Quoting enterfx
If they hanged around here too much, they are broke as hell. lol
  • #220,604
  • Apr 5, 2010 4:03pm Apr 5, 2010 4:03pm
Oil prices are gonna rise for inflations sake let alone the fact its a finite thing with a quickly growing number of consumers.
The greatest force on earth is compound interest.
  • #220,605
  • Apr 5, 2010 4:04pm Apr 5, 2010 4:04pm
in my eyes the stock market will fall in the next few days, and I think that the usd will strengthen with that a little bit. on a tf of 1-2 weeks I'm pretty sure that the eur/usd will rise some percent - my preferred reason for a rising e/u is that, seeing the cot, some large traders shorted it and they have do close that positions; and that is only a question of time
Pecunia non olet
  • #220,606
  • Apr 5, 2010 4:06pm Apr 5, 2010 4:06pm
lol if there was a city called forex-town there would be at the moment only dust storm ,silence and closed hatches and an old man on the porch with a riffle laughing like a loonatic saying"u want some candy?"

where is dj-FED at ,lets throw a party
  • #220,607
  • Apr 5, 2010 4:11pm Apr 5, 2010 4:11pm
Quoting enterfx
If they hanged around here too much, they are broke as hell. lol
Haha, haven't been here long but I do find that the more money I make the less I post. Over time most people either blow their accounts and quit, or a few become really profitable and forget about the forum. I don't really get much out of this forum strategy-wise, but it's nice to "hang out" with other traders while I'm waiting for a setup (even if I'm just reading and laughing to myself). Few people I know in the real world trade, so I enjoy the chance to talk shop even if it's online.
  • #220,608
  • Apr 5, 2010 4:14pm Apr 5, 2010 4:14pm
hear ya brother
Quoting Protogenos
Haha, haven't been here long but I do find that the more money I make the less I post. Over time most people either blow their accounts and quit, or a few become really profitable and forget about the forum. I don't really get much out of this forum strategy-wise, but it's nice to "hang out" with other traders while I'm waiting for a setup (even if I'm just reading and laughing to myself). Few people I know in the real world trade, so I enjoy the chance to talk shop even if it's online.
  • #220,609
  • Apr 5, 2010 4:14pm Apr 5, 2010 4:14pm
Dow Jones Newswires:

"....Some strategists had expected the dollar to gain against the euro and its other major competitors after the Federal Reserve
reviewed Monday the rate it charges banks on emergency loans, but the Fed announced no changes to the rate.

"No news regarding discount rate is another reason why we're perhaps seeing a slight pause, at least in terms of
the dollar's ability to continue to advance against the core major currencies," said Nick Bennenbroek, head of currency
strategy at Wells Fargo in New York.

The U.K. pound also took advantage of Monday's improved investor sentiment as it posted a gain of about 0.45% on the
day against the dollar as a cloud of political uncertainty seemed to be lifting, with an election likely to be called
Tuesday, according to reports, and the chances of a hung parliament--or one party not gaining enough votes for
a majority--becoming less likely, according to recent polls.
Meanwhile, the Russian ruble extended its gains Monday, reaching its strongest levels in 15 months on higher oil prices,
with analysts predicting that an increase in inflows may give the currency new strength later this year.......
"
Dollar bulls might have to take a rest for a while now...
Viewer Discretion Advised: Shall we shag now or should we shag later? :-)
  • #220,610
  • Apr 5, 2010 4:17pm Apr 5, 2010 4:17pm
Quoting SkyzerFX
Several things I'm watching and focusing on: DOW/OIL

If Market drops with the commodities, you know what's going to happened.

P.S

OIL still sitting at resent highs..
Oil is going up becouse pepole expect higher demand as the world economy rcovering
  • #220,611
  • Apr 5, 2010 4:24pm Apr 5, 2010 4:24pm
Quoting ^Sam
Oil is going up becouse pepole expect higher demand as the world economy rcovering
Man I know, but this is bold statement, because every commodity very

volatile.. OIL can drop $2 in one day without any demand picture changed.

Right now, there is more speculation than demand, cause nothing

really changed in last 2-3 weeks on demand side. How you like 10% (official)

and probably 18% real unemployed people pay more money for Gas?

That's an absurd.. Unemployment still too high, to get this kind of boost on

demand side for OIL ( that's Wall Street Buds getting too greedy)..
Viewer Discretion Advised: Shall we shag now or should we shag later? :-)
  • #220,612
  • Apr 5, 2010 4:36pm Apr 5, 2010 4:36pm
Quoting SkyzerFX
Man I know, but this is bold statement, because every commodity very

volatile.. OIL can drop $2 in one day without any demand picture changed.

Right now, there is more speculation than demand, cause nothing

really changed in last 2-3 weeks on demand side. How you like 10% (official)

and probably 18% real unemployed people pay more money for Gas?

That's an absurd.. Unemployment still too high, to get this kind of boost on

demand side for OIL ( that's Wall Street Buds getting too greedy)..
Oil prices has 3 parts in it (expert have different opinion on the % of each part). First part is the pure fundamentals as any other commodity (supply and demand). Second part is the political situation in the oil producing countries (wars ..etc). Third part is the expectation of the future demand and thats what improving as expectation of world economy recovery increase. Speculation runs mainly in part 3.
  • #220,613
  • Apr 5, 2010 4:37pm Apr 5, 2010 4:37pm
A few charts:
1. South Korea export in billion Dollars
2. South Korea export to China
3. South Korea Industry Production Index
4. Profit US finance industry in billions
5. Profit of finance industry in comparison to complete corporate profits in US
6. Moodys commercial property price index
7. Commercial Real Estate delinquencies for Commercial banks in US in billions
Attached Images
  • #220,614
  • Apr 5, 2010 4:40pm Apr 5, 2010 4:40pm
Quoting SkyzerFX
Man I know, but this is bold statement, because every commodity very

volatile.. OIL can drop $2 in one day without any demand picture changed.

Right now, there is more speculation than demand, cause nothing

really changed in last 2-3 weeks on demand side. How you like 10% (official)

and probably 18% real unemployed people pay more money for Gas?

That's an absurd.. Unemployment still too high, to get this kind of boost on

demand side for OIL ( that's Wall Street Buds getting too greedy)..
It's not that the 10% (or 15% or 16% or 18% or whatever it really is) that are paying for gas that is increasing demand. It's the 82-90% (and improving- or at least specualtively improving) that are making the difference. The employed are also projected to see more money because their employers are projected to make more money with recovery.

Now we move to commercial/business side of things. They will be in need of more gas to run their business (ie fleets, delivery, processing, machinery, etc). Air travel will increase with personal and business income improvements. More airplane travelers = more gas consumption. We also got ships, plants and government.

So in conclussion, the projection of better economic times, albeit the crap we're still in, is what drives the price. You should know this by now.
  • #220,615
  • Apr 5, 2010 4:56pm Apr 5, 2010 4:56pm
skyzer , that news is nowhere to be found ..cnbc , reuters ; forexfactory , bloomberg ,..
Quoting SkyzerFX
Dow Jones Newswires:

"....Some strategists had expected the dollar to gain against the euro and its other major competitors after the Federal Reserve
reviewed Monday the rate it charges banks on emergency loans, but the Fed announced no changes to the rate.

"No news regarding discount rate is another reason why we're perhaps seeing a slight pause, at least in terms of
the dollar's ability to continue to advance against the core major currencies," said Nick Bennenbroek, head of currency
strategy at Wells Fargo in New York.

The U.K....
  • #220,616
  • Apr 5, 2010 5:03pm Apr 5, 2010 5:03pm
Quoting gatorinla
if the red sea parts you will see massive jumping on the band wagon. we normaly have the one n. bound bounce (above 96 st s/r) first. lets see what happens after.. still looking for 3466 + then another st bounce.

if we rock drop none of these will matter..
this one complete but the bounce sucks..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #220,617
  • Apr 5, 2010 5:04pm Apr 5, 2010 5:04pm
Quoting ^Sam
Oil prices has 3 parts in it (expert have different opinion on the % of each part). First part is the pure fundamentals as any other commodity (supply and demand). Second part is the political situation in the oil producing countries (wars ..etc). Third part is the expectation of the future demand and thats what improving as expectation of world economy recovery increase. Speculation runs mainly in part 3.
add manipulation
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #220,618
  • Apr 5, 2010 5:06pm Apr 5, 2010 5:06pm
How do you see it going Gator. I have to pack it in here as it's late. Have work too tomorrow so debating whether to hold my short @ 1.3533 or take the gains now

Quoting gatorinla
this one complete but the bounce sucks..
Disclaimer: Check your 1m charts
  • #220,619
  • Apr 5, 2010 5:09pm Apr 5, 2010 5:09pm
We are making higher highs and higher lows tells me we are on the verge of major reversal on EU.
  • #220,620
  • Apr 5, 2010 5:09pm Apr 5, 2010 5:09pm
Quoting gatorinla
this one complete but the bounce sucks..
but i somehow understand it. considering the move from feb last year, if we seriously broke this area, euro would officially be in a downtrend with all its economic and systematic consequences. add in (mis-)trust and it could go down another 3000 pips.
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