Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas | Page 61 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

COT report... futures or futures and options report? 11 replies

EA, GA, GCAD, GJ, GN - Analysis and trade ideas 11 replies

Cot - Report in application to the Forex 2 replies

Fundamental Analysis - Trade Ideas 2 replies

COT report 1 reply

Attachments: Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas
Exit Attachments

Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #1,201
  • Apr 4, 2010 9:48pm Apr 4, 2010 9:48pm
Quoting puks
hey buddy,

Yup. the source has said its going to be a very close call. Much closer than what people are thinking but he's leaning towards no-hike.

That's the sole reason why I am still holding my shorts. its costing me more than double my weekly lunch + Petrol but I will close my position at some stage tomorrow after a no-hike event.

He even said if RBA pauses now, they will in all likelihood pause in May and begin tightening from June/July onwards.
Even if they hold which I think they will, what makes you so sure that it will drop? I think both a hold or 25% hike are priced in and will cause little movement like last month when the hike caused no upside movement.
  • #1,202
  • Apr 4, 2010 9:56pm Apr 4, 2010 9:56pm
Quoting amyc
Even if they hold which I think they will, what makes you so sure that it will drop? I think both a hold or 25% hike are priced in and will cause little movement like last month when the hike caused no upside movement.
I think the market has got itself overly long "AFTER" Steven's interview that rates "WERE" not to be kept at record low levels.

Markets are aggressively pricing in another 125 bps hike in next 9 meetings.

I beg to differ here that markets are equally pricing in rate hike and pause. I believe market has fully priced in 25 bps hike and in case of no-hike, the first knee-jerk reaction will take AUD down to .9130 where heavy S/L orders are placed and once they're executed, we will go down towards .9085-90.

But a hike and we will cross .9320 easily.
  • #1,203
  • Edited 10:27pm Apr 4, 2010 10:16pm | Edited 10:27pm
Quoting puks
I think the market has got itself overly long "AFTER" Steven's interview that rates "WERE" not to be kept at record low levels.

Markets are aggressively pricing in another 125 bps hike in next 9 meetings.

I beg to differ here that markets are equally pricing in rate hike and pause. I believe market has fully priced in 25 bps hike and in case of no-hike, the first knee-jerk reaction will take AUD down to .9130 where heavy S/L orders are placed and once they're executed, we will go down towards .9085-90.

But a hike and we will cross .9320...
If the market has gotten itself overly long its had plenty of chances to rectify that in the last few days but it has stayed around the highs.

From what I have read the market has apparently priced in about a 60% chance of a rate hike so that must mean 40% of people are thinking it will stay steady, I don't imagine many of them are looking for a cut or a 50% rise.
I wouldn't count my chickens before they have hatched is all I am saying.
  • #1,204
  • Apr 4, 2010 10:34pm Apr 4, 2010 10:34pm
Glenn Stevens has basically come out and said "I am going to increase rates to try and cool the housing market" and I think he will do just that at this meeting, despite the fact that other economic indicators (trade balance, building approvals and retail sales) have since disappointed.
BTC Return This Year: na
  • #1,205
  • Apr 4, 2010 10:57pm Apr 4, 2010 10:57pm
Quoting M.A.C.Doug
Glenn Stevens has basically come out and said "I am going to increase rates to try and cool the housing market" and I think he will do just that at this meeting, despite the fact that other economic indicators (trade balance, building approvals and retail sales) have since disappointed.
Only prob is that Stevens had his moment in the public televsion sun before the trilogy of nasty data injected a more sobering reality check. He'd either have to be stupid, or in major denial to ignore such a nasty set of numbers, not across just one front, but three. That data speaks volumes about what happens when all the spin doctoring and cash-handouts come to an end. Consumers are not buying it, period. If they raise rates in the face of that kind of evidence, it may be viewed as a negative for the Aus economy rather than a positive.

But that probably won't stop the speculation ahead of the event.
  • #1,206
  • Apr 4, 2010 11:48pm Apr 4, 2010 11:48pm
Quoting Jade Gate
Only prob is that Stevens had his moment in the public televsion sun before the trilogy of nasty data injected a more sobering reality check. He'd either have to be stupid, or in major denial to ignore such a nasty set of numbers, not across just one front, but three. That data speaks volumes about what happens when all the spin doctoring and cash-handouts come to an end. Consumers are not buying it, period. If they raise rates in the face of that kind of evidence, it may be viewed as a negative for the Aus economy rather than a positive.
But that...
Tend to agree with you Jade; not to mention the fact that the Big4 are doing "their own thing" with rates regardless of RBA and public outcry which is no doubt dampening things more rapidly than would otherwise be the case perhaps.....maybe the market should factor in the behaviour of the Big 4
  • #1,207
  • Apr 5, 2010 3:20am Apr 5, 2010 3:20am
Quoting amyc
If the market has gotten itself overly long its had plenty of chances to rectify that in the last few days but it has stayed around the highs.

From what I have read the market has apparently priced in about a 60% chance of a rate hike so that must mean 40% of people are thinking it will stay steady, I don't imagine many of them are looking for a cut or a 50% rise.
I wouldn't count my chickens before they have hatched is all I am saying.
Nobody is shorting this pair for the obvious reasons. People are long in the hope that it will continue to grind higher and b) it gives them good carry over.

I've been reading on forexlive that real money players are selling and leveraged specs are buying but in 20 hours we'll move one way or the other.

Not to mention, we could head down south IF Fed raises discount rates tonight.
  • #1,208
  • Apr 5, 2010 3:22am Apr 5, 2010 3:22am
Quoting M.A.C.Doug
Glenn Stevens has basically come out and said "I am going to increase rates to try and cool the housing market" and I think he will do just that at this meeting, despite the fact that other economic indicators (trade balance, building approvals and retail sales) have since disappointed.
Housing market bubble is not an immediate problem. Its a more medium term problem and by raising interest rates he's not going be able to solve that problem.

The fundamental problem is we have less homes and more buyers. With higher interest rates, the rents keep going up and people are forced to buy their own property. And when you buy your own property, you dont mind paying extra 15-20K if you get what you want. Atleast I wouldn't for my first home!!
  • #1,209
  • Apr 5, 2010 3:43am Apr 5, 2010 3:43am
It's all a bit ridiculous really. Stevens n Rudd gave consumers the giddy-up to buy buy buy because rates won't remain low forever and the cash grants will cease. House prices inflate as a result. It was their own policy that created the problem. Now the grants have ended, things are finding a more normal non-stimulus balance, and it isn't pretty.

Our primary producers must be close to screaming blue murder if the Aussie dollar appreciates any further. China has just boycotted Aussie iron-ore for the next 2 months, sick of being held to ransom on a 90% price hike.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2...05/2864493.htm
  • #1,210
  • Apr 5, 2010 3:54am Apr 5, 2010 3:54am
Quoting puks
Nobody is shorting this pair for the obvious reasons. People are long in the hope that it will continue to grind higher and b) it gives them good carry over.

I've been reading on forexlive that real money players are selling and leveraged specs are buying but in 20 hours we'll move one way or the other.

Not to mention, we could head down south IF Fed raises discount rates tonight.
I don't honestly think that any one is going to take a large position based on a hope of higher prices they will have their reasons.
  • #1,211
  • Apr 5, 2010 6:19am Apr 5, 2010 6:19am
LFB's volatility warning just arrived in my email - sums it up nicely. Trust Marco won't mind too much if I post it here

Trader Advantage Program - Volatility Alert - April 4th, 2010

Forex traders should be gearing up to trade a huge week of economic data that will very likely instigate some of the biggest technical moves most will have seen this year. Currency markets follow global risk tolerance each day and balance speculative and institutional interest, with a secondary mandate that weighs global interest rate differentials.

This week that all comes together, with five major central bank interest rate decisions, and a swath of red-flag economic releases thrown in for good measure.
The week starts with a bank holiday that only Japan and the U.S. are not respecting, and the imbalance of order flows created by that means that any gaps in prices off the Sunday/Monday open may not easily be filled.

Forex markets will be open and servicing the automated electronic side of trade, and may find it difficult to reverse the Usd buying that fed through the markets after the Non-farm Payroll release on Friday from the U.S.

At 10am ET on Monday the ISM Non-Manufacturing numbers are released, alongside Pending Home Sales, both of which have the ability to move prices. The markets then anticipate the Australian interest rate decision that has analysts looking for an increase of 25 basis points to 4.25%.

Traders need to keep an eye on that, because it seems as though the RBA may just have got itself ahead of the curve in regard to global growth expectations. If the RBA do not raise rates as expected, it will be virtually impossible for Aud/Usd to get through the long side of 0.9200 anytime soon.

From there, it is a constant flow of fundamental releases that will set direction in regard to currency valuations, and right now the technical set-ups on both the long and short side of the Usd have lots of potential to create lots of trade signals.

The perfect storm of Usd buying may be just about to hit; if the equity (stocks) markets move lower, in reaction to economics, the Usd will be bought in the move from risk to U.S. Treasuries. If equity markets move higher, it will likely be on the understanding that global expansion will be aided by Usd based growth. This could be win-win for the dollar in the near-term.
  • #1,212
  • Apr 5, 2010 6:56am Apr 5, 2010 6:56am
It seems I missed some healthy discussion about RBA rates decision while I was sleeping.
to me A/U is forming an ascending triangle in 4H, a terminal thrust needs to satisfy the pattern (the target would be close to .9290)

AUDCAD is getting more intense and almost completed the consolidation pattern.

I closed these trades earlier,
long U/Cad from 1.0085 ,half closed at B/E (other half was closed before with +30)
short A/U from .9200 closed at B/E
short G/J from 143.50 half stopped at SL (-100) ,(other half closed before with +50)

I changed SL of short E/U(1.3488) from 1.3600 to 1.3538

I'm still looking to add to my long U/J with buy limit order at weekly pivot at 93.80 SL=93.30
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: au2b.gif Size: 16 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: ac1.gif Size: 14 KB
  • #1,213
  • Apr 5, 2010 7:06am Apr 5, 2010 7:06am
Quoting Jade Gate
LFB's volatility warning just arrived in my email - sums it up nicely....
Hi Jade Gate, thanx for the report and your previous good posts here.personally I'm more inclined to see a pause from RBA this time, but my chart tells me we will see .25%.
  • #1,214
  • Apr 5, 2010 7:10am Apr 5, 2010 7:10am
Quoting shahab8b
Hi Jade Gate, thanx for the report and your previous good posts here.personally I'm more inclined to see a pause from RBA this time, but my chart tells me we will see .25%.
Either way AUD will be sold off.

A hike and no-hike for next 2-3 meetings and a pause will have an initial knee-jerk reaction.

I will go long the moment AUD breaks through .9220.
  • #1,215
  • Apr 5, 2010 7:11am Apr 5, 2010 7:11am
Quoting puks
hey buddy,

Yup. the source has said its going to be a very close call. Much closer than what people are thinking but he's leaning towards no-hike.

That's the sole reason why I am still holding my shorts. its costing me more than double my weekly lunch + Petrol but I will close my position at some stage tomorrow after a no-hike event.

He even said if RBA pauses now, they will in all likelihood pause in May and begin tightening from June/July onwards.
G'day buddy,
As far as I remember you predicted all the previous RBA rates statement correct. as you said it's a close call this time.either way I'll short this pair but I close my shorts atm to enter the market right before the rates statement news.( I think this pair will break higher few hrs before the news, considering my triangle)
  • #1,216
  • Apr 5, 2010 7:30am Apr 5, 2010 7:30am
G/J
another attempt to short the beast.
sell limit at 145.90 (weekly R1+ S>R)
sl=147.30
tp=143.50 & 139.50
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gj2.gif Size: 22 KB
  • #1,217
  • Apr 5, 2010 7:34am Apr 5, 2010 7:34am
Quoting shahab8b
G'day buddy,
As far as I remember you predicted all the previous RBA rates statement correct. as you said it's a close call this time.either way I'll short this pair but I close my shorts atm to enter the market right before the rates statement news.( I think this pair will break higher few hrs before the news, considering my triangle)
Markets will have trouble going past .9220.

Previously there were rumors that RBA is sitting on 9220. Just like they were on 9320 before.
  • #1,218
  • Apr 5, 2010 8:00am Apr 5, 2010 8:00am
do you move your second trade to be when you tp on the first?

Quoting shahab8b
It seems I missed some healthy discussion about RBA...
  • #1,219
  • Apr 5, 2010 9:16am Apr 5, 2010 9:16am
I was curious about Puks ability to predict rate hikes through his sources. That's something I could not resist looking up. He did nail the last surprise, however the Oct rate hike was a surprise to him.

Mon
Oct 5
11:30pm AUDCash Rate act: 3.25% fcst: 3.00%

puks http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/s...ser_online.gif
P for Pips
Member Since Aug 2009

Good morning
Good morning all,

How are we all?

I see AUD above .8775 and could edge up to .88 cents before the rates decision, which will be NO RATE HIKE today.

I am expecting market to react strongly and bring this pair down to around .8650-.8700.

Pending limit short at .8800

Have a great day!

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=5410
  • #1,220
  • Apr 5, 2010 10:15am Apr 5, 2010 10:15am
G/U
one touch trade set up: sell limit at 1.5370 (weekly R1+previous R at 5386)
SL=1.5420 TP=1.5300 & 1.5135
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu2b.gif Size: 19 KB
15 traders viewing now