Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas | Page 60 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

COT report... futures or futures and options report? 11 replies

EA, GA, GCAD, GJ, GN - Analysis and trade ideas 11 replies

Cot - Report in application to the Forex 2 replies

Fundamental Analysis - Trade Ideas 2 replies

COT report 1 reply

Attachments: Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas
Exit Attachments

Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #1,181
  • Apr 4, 2010 12:13pm Apr 4, 2010 12:13pm
Quoting heaveyrain
this is how i read my chart on GU

1 > price break below the the red trendline, finding support at 1.48. retrace to test the red trendline and continue it downtrend

2 > price find support at red trendline and possible price stall at 1.53xx and continue it downtrend

3> Price break 1.53xx. i would only consider an uptrend movement if price break above 1.55 and come back to test the blue horizontal trendline

Taking dollar index DXY, USD is having trendline support and i find it following the 10MA S/R quite well on the weekly chart. Personally i...
hi heaveyrain,

a very clean and nice chart, good analysis
  • #1,182
  • Apr 4, 2010 12:13pm Apr 4, 2010 12:13pm
Quoting MarcVUM
Would you mind sending me your settings for the MACD so that I can take a look and offer my opinion? Thanks.
ThinkorSwim
Fast Length?
Slow Length?
macd Length?
Type (EMA,SMA)?

or on MT4/5
Fast EMA?
Slow EMA?
MACD SMA?
12/26/9 on MACD
Applied to close and its EMA
The default setting you get on MT4
Thanks
  • #1,183
  • Apr 4, 2010 12:14pm Apr 4, 2010 12:14pm
Quoting shahab8b
E/G

let's see the NY activity on Mon then we can decide if it's good to take a long on E/G
or a Pure Elliot count IM
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EG.8th dec.PNG Size: 153 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EG.JPG Size: 44 KB
DRAGON-TECHNICAL ANALYSIS!
  • #1,184
  • Apr 4, 2010 12:15pm Apr 4, 2010 12:15pm
Quoting shahab8b
Hi Vincy , good to see you around here my friend. you are an EW pro so I'll take a note of your count
thank you my good man , GOD BLESS
DRAGON-TECHNICAL ANALYSIS!
  • #1,185
  • Apr 4, 2010 12:21pm Apr 4, 2010 12:21pm
Quoting shahab8b
Hi there, that's right. I'm already in , but I prefer to see market movement in NY session as there is bank holiday in EU ,that may give us some clue.
Shahab, are you targeting 9136 or lower?
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #1,186
  • Apr 4, 2010 12:46pm Apr 4, 2010 12:46pm
Quoting shahab8b
Hi there, that's right. I'm already in , but I prefer to see market movement in NY session as there is bank holiday in EU ,that may give us some clue.
I am as well, but have you looked into the AU Cash rate statement coming? My guess is that's the reason we haven't seen this pair sell off yet.
  • #1,187
  • Apr 4, 2010 12:50pm Apr 4, 2010 12:50pm
Quoting MarcVUM
Shahab, are you targeting 9136 or lower?
.9100 ,SL=.9220 , but the confidence is low ,let's see what Mon will bring us.
  • #1,188
  • Apr 4, 2010 12:58pm Apr 4, 2010 12:58pm
Quoting mmccormac
I am as well, but have you looked into the AU Cash rate statement coming? My guess is that's the reason we haven't seen this pair sell off yet.
Hi, there, I know. we talked about it last Mon when we saw A/U jumped higher.I think the market has already priced in .25% hike, it is fine as far as they wont surprise the market with a .50% hike. on the other hand, if they fail to raise we will see a serious fall.
  • #1,189
  • Apr 4, 2010 3:18pm Apr 4, 2010 3:18pm
So we've got the Great British Pound a'jumping tonight. Cable currently at 1.5275, GBP/JPY @ 144.43 and E/G @ 0.8829.

I can only put it down to the Conservatives taking a lead over Labour

http://uk.reuters.com/article/idUKTRE6321KK20100403

As for the RBA rate rise - who knows. Here's one article http://www.smh.com.au/business/rumou...0402-rjt3.html
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #1,190
  • Apr 4, 2010 3:53pm Apr 4, 2010 3:53pm
Quoting Patience
As for the RBA rate rise - who knows. Here's one article http://www.smh.com.au/business/rumou...0402-rjt3.html
I'm also inclined to think there won't be a rate rise this week. The housing data last week was very bad. Aussie's housing market is yet to experience a serious correction, one that is certainly overdue. Kev "Robin-Hood" Rudd has done a nice job propping up the property market with loads of free money to new home buyers. The impact of that being withdrawn is only just now beginning to kick in - which is why the housing data is looking rather sad of late.

Glenn Stevens pumping up the rhetoric last week on further rate rises increased market expectations regarding this one coming. That was somewhat mischievous, imo.

Nevertheless, some trades to look at in the lead-up to the announcement -

Long AUD/JPY
Long AUD/USD
Short EUR/AUD

I'd be heading for the hills 1 min before release however and looking to short AUD/USD instead.

If the US Fed hikes rates, equities may choke as money is uprooted and planted back into bonds, causing further erosion of the AUD.

Do your own DD etc.
  • #1,191
  • Apr 4, 2010 6:36pm Apr 4, 2010 6:36pm
Quoting Jade Gate
Glenn Stevens pumping up the rhetoric last week on further rate rises increased market expectations regarding this one coming. That was somewhat mischievous, imo.
Hey Nice to see you around. I heard some comment that Glenn Stevens is very "measured" in what he says to the market so that he comes across as clear as possible. As Shahab has pointed out with COT, the boat is pretty full on A/U, but without any risk aversion, I don't see this selling off much. 200 SMA on daily is now at 0.8810! And any dip on A/J, I'll be jumping in but I get a little nervous buying at these levels when my RSI is off the charts on my 4 hour and daily charts.

Looks like the US is going to delay naming China as a currency manipulator (again).

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aj-4hour-5apr.jpg Size: 155 KB
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aj-daily-5apr.jpg Size: 163 KB
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #1,192
  • Apr 4, 2010 6:46pm Apr 4, 2010 6:46pm
Quoting Patience
Hey ...
Hi Patience. A/J & U/J dealing with TL resistance draw from Nov.
  • #1,193
  • Apr 4, 2010 7:05pm Apr 4, 2010 7:05pm
Quoting Clouds
Hi Patience. A/J & U/J dealing with TL resistance draw from Nov.
Yeah, but I can see what Shahab is talking about with that 89.00 area on the weekly chart. 89.00/90.00. Seems like everyone has jumped on this boat now. Buy all dips

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aj-weekly-5apr.jpg Size: 166 KB



AUD/USD: .9130/.9250 the levels to watch
By Sean Lee, ForexLive

The Aussie has been exceedingly quiet over the last week but that will probably change in the next 30 hours as we await tomorrow’s RBA decision. The market seems fairly evenly divided over whether we’ll see another 25 bps rise or not. Solid selling interest from real money type accounts towards .9220/30 is currently capping the market and leveraged names continue to buy on dips. Heavy stop-losses are tipped to reside both sides of the market, below .9130 and above .9250, and a break either side will probably usher in the next short term trend.

http://www.forexlive.com/97743/all/a...evels-to-watch
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #1,194
  • Apr 4, 2010 7:55pm Apr 4, 2010 7:55pm
RPM shows traders have been adding to long UsdCad positions while price is falling. Stops likely rest below the low of April 1st. If stops are triggered at this level, price will fall quickly. Live RPM buy/sell ratio charts avail here. SSI DailyFx positioning agrees.

http://i260.photobucket.com/albums/i...17B3/image.pnghttp://i260.photobucket.com/albums/i...B3/image_3.png
  • #1,195
  • Apr 4, 2010 8:12pm Apr 4, 2010 8:12pm
Quoting shahab8b
Hi, there, I know. we talked about it last Mon when we saw A/U jumped higher.I think the market has already priced in .25% hike, it is fine as far as they wont surprise the market with a .50% hike. on the other hand, if they fail to raise we will see a serious fall.
Hi shahab8b; thanks for starting such a clean, precise and informative thread. Have you noticed RSI monthly...looks like a possible divergence toward .9405. Will it get there...who knows..perhaps a fulfillment of a bearish daily divergence first..
any thoughts?
  • #1,196
  • Apr 4, 2010 8:44pm Apr 4, 2010 8:44pm
Quoting TrueBlue
Hi shahab8b; thanks for starting such a clean, precise and informative thread. Have you noticed RSI monthly...looks like a possible divergence toward .9405. Will it get there...who knows..perhaps a fulfillment of a bearish daily divergence first..
any thoughts?
Hi TrueBlue,
Thanx for your comments. atm ,I'm unsure of A/U structure, as I mentioned I prefer to wait till NY session to make a trade decision.
in summary A/U is bullish in H/4H/D/W/M
  • #1,197
  • Apr 4, 2010 8:51pm Apr 4, 2010 8:51pm
Quoting puks
I am ready. Fired up.

it has been my worst trading week as well!!!

G'day mate,
do you know anything about the RBA rate decision? I mean have you heard anything from your reliable sources that you have?
  • #1,198
  • Apr 4, 2010 8:53pm Apr 4, 2010 8:53pm
U/J

Buy Limit order at weekly pivot at 93.80 SL=93.30 TP=95.40 & 97
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: uja11.gif Size: 19 KB
  • #1,199
  • Apr 4, 2010 9:21pm Apr 4, 2010 9:21pm
Quoting shahab8b
G'day mate,
do you know anything about the RBA rate decision? I mean have you heard anything from your reliable sources that you have?
hey buddy,

Yup. the source has said its going to be a very close call. Much closer than what people are thinking but he's leaning towards no-hike.

That's the sole reason why I am still holding my shorts. its costing me more than double my weekly lunch + Petrol but I will close my position at some stage tomorrow after a no-hike event.

He even said if RBA pauses now, they will in all likelihood pause in May and begin tightening from June/July onwards.
  • #1,200
  • Apr 4, 2010 9:42pm Apr 4, 2010 9:42pm
Quoting Patience
Yeah, but I can see what Shahab is talking about with that 89.00 area on the weekly chart. 89.00/90.00. Seems like everyone has jumped on this boat now. Buy all dips
How big of dip are we talking about? The last dip was 76.
9 traders viewing now