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  • #11,221
  • Apr 3, 2010 8:54am Apr 3, 2010 8:54am
Quoting tmanbone
Welcome. You're at the right spot. Folks sometimes get aggravated when you ask questions before you've read the thread. You've got the key read from post #1, everything is there. It will take a while, dig in like studying a book. Strat always says don't get anxious, the market will still be here when you're ready. If after you've read and still don't understand, ask your questions they will be more likely to get attention. Hit me up any time with any questions. Cheers,

T Alright you all, sorry for going off this week, I'm done. Happy Easter
Thanks tmanbone.
All i was asking for in my first post ws to be pointed in the right direction where or what could i be trading on to be able to put a trade on and walk away from it and not to be stuck watching it for hours on end.
Also I did not take kindly to some person calling me a lazy B.
  • #11,222
  • Edited 6:08pm Apr 3, 2010 10:03am | Edited 6:08pm
Quoting mstandifer
There is a difference between a single comment from a well respected member heralding a significant event and 30 comments posted by a lurker for no other reason than hearing himself talk.

I feel these recent post are directed toward me. mstandifer, looks like we all had to start somewhere, you came out of lurking mode Oct 1 2009, humm... hardly a veteran. I feel you're a long way from knowing any of the reasons I do anything. Alexandra, I respect your request. Roy, point taken. My apologies to all for getting a tad excited and carried away with helping the newer comer than myself find their way. You're welcome to address me head on, but I prefer a more tactful manner. I need guidance like everyone else. Respectfully,

T
T
  • #11,223
  • Edited 11:43am Apr 3, 2010 11:30am | Edited 11:43am
Big Boss 5 month decent S/R @ 1.3558 @ 1.3215

Boss support @ 1.3372 from 3/6/07, last Boss candle found support here & is under all relevant ma's.

http://i43.tinypic.com/ux8rb.jpg

Worker has found R @ 1.3583, the worker's trend line, & the worker 20ma, IB closed below trend line & worker 20 ma.

http://i42.tinypic.com/icu7mt.gif
T
  • #11,224
  • Apr 3, 2010 11:39am Apr 3, 2010 11:39am
Quoting CrudeCraig
Welcome to the thread Steve!

Judging by the order you told us you placed though i am not sure you are truly understanding correctly right now; as i do not see any (STRESS FREE) PASR to trigger a long on GJ at this time.

Your post actually reminds me a lot of one of my first posts on this thread where i saw a couple bullish candles at a price level i thought was significant and started placing orders.

Keep reading and understanding, there are literally thousands of great posts in this thread to get you on track.
After reviewing I do see what you are saying about PASR. With some luck behind me I let it run till Friday and closed before Market end. (.1 lot) Stopped dead at trendline. I will continue to study the thread a bit more, try and post chart-- a quiz to my self so to speak and let the red ink fly.
  • #11,225
  • Apr 3, 2010 11:44am Apr 3, 2010 11:44am
Quoting tmanbone
I feel these recent post are directed toward me. mstandifer, looks like we all had to start somewhere, you came out of lurking mode Oct 1 2009, humm... hardly a veteran. I feel you're a long way from knowing any of the reasons I do anything. Alexandra, I respect your request. Roy, point taken. My apologies to all for getting a tad excited and carried away with helping the newer comer than myself find their way. You're welcome to address me head on, but I prefer a tactful manner. I need guidance too. Respectfully,

T
Tman...Indeed, I appreciate your humility and your attitude, both on the thread and in your message to me. You may have fueled the fire a bit, but you did not start it. As you have taken a dive into E/USD, let's hear your view on AUD/USD, a market that seems to puzzle a bit. That's a nice way to re-gain the thread's focus. I would invite others to chime in on their view of your comments, applying Strat's technique to the best of their abilities.
  • #11,226
  • Apr 3, 2010 12:04pm Apr 3, 2010 12:04pm
Quoting PistolDave
Ok....

The market now appears to have more downside potential.

Attachment

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Hi Pistol Dave. In the words of a former college professor I had, "your work is concise, precise and nice." I wanted you to see the area that U/Cad is getting into. Worker may already be reacting.
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  • #11,227
  • Edited 7:05pm Apr 3, 2010 1:37pm | Edited 7:05pm
Big Boss trend line from 9/1/01 - 3/1/06 is now being respected as resistance.

Boss trend line from 3/1/09 - 1/31/10 is holding support. Price is above all relevant ma's. Present BUEB candle. Boss formed a broadening pattern = volatility & uncertainty by definition. Boss price closed above this pattern.

http://i41.tinypic.com/2n80zuc.gif

Worker is above longer term trend line; above all relevant ma's, nice recent reversal PA off the 50ma; still contained within the broadening pattern. Waiting on price to break .924 ish or psycho .900 for direction. EDIT: after further review .930 ish upside

http://i44.tinypic.com/2d0dzj5.gif

Alexandra, I admire your seriousness and your sense of let's get down to business. Thank you for your guidance.

T

NOTE: upper trend line on worker is off a few pips.
T
  • #11,228
  • Apr 3, 2010 2:08pm Apr 3, 2010 2:08pm
Just a reminder about AUD rate decision Monday night (Tuesday morning Aussie time). The market has priced in a 25bps hike and it's widely expected but if they do not hike or they say anything dovish then the AUD is going to tank. Either way the decision might give some direction here.

Personally - I really like the tight wedge on AUDCAD short for a breakout trade / break of support if you like AUD short and if you like it long then AUDJPY was the star performer by far of late.

Quoting tmanbone
Big Boss trend line from 9/1/01 - 3/1/06 is now being respected as resistance.

Boss trend line from 3/1/09 - 1/31/10 is holding support. Price is above all relevant ma's. Present BUEB candle. Boss formed a broadening pattern = volatility & uncertainty by definition. Boss price closed above this pattern.

Worker is above longer term trend line; above all relevant ma's, nice recent reversal PA off the 50ma; still contained within the broadening pattern. Waiting on price to break .924ish or psycho...
  • #11,229
  • Edited 3:09pm Apr 3, 2010 2:28pm | Edited 3:09pm
If I can throw in my opinion about AUD/USD here it is.

Currently I have price stuck between two SR zones of .9300 and .9000.

Also so far the price has respected the trendline starting from 2008/07 and for price to go north is has to break the SR zone and the trendline. Thought this move is supported by 20 and 50 as they are showing higher prices.

For price to go south it has to break SR zone at .9000 and the 20 is also at that zone giving us confluence, and later we have more supporting zones and the 50 below making this difficult for price to move down.

So far I don't see any trade here untill we break and close above .9300 or below .9000 to get me looking at it, but it might be not too long of a wait as elitejets giving us heads up on the funnymentals. Maybe we'll get better direction early next week.
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  • #11,230
  • Edited Apr 4, 2010 2:29am Apr 3, 2010 2:44pm | Edited Apr 4, 2010 2:29am
Quoting kaunasny
If I can throw in my opinion about AUD/USD here it is.

Currently I have price struck between two SR zones of .9300 and .9000.

Also so far the price has respected the trendline starting from 2008/07 and for price to go north is has to break the SR zone and the trendline. Thought this move is supported by 20 and 50 as they are showing higher prices.

For price to go south it has to break SR zone at .9000 and the 20 is also at that zone giving us confluence, and later we have more supporting zones and the 50 below making this difficult for price...
I like kaunasny's Boss upper trend line placement better than mine. It makes more sense to me. Cheers,

T
T
  • #11,231
  • Apr 3, 2010 5:07pm Apr 3, 2010 5:07pm
Quoting Alexandra
Tman...Indeed, I appreciate your humility and your attitude, both on the thread and in your message to me. You may have fueled the fire a bit, but you did not start it. As you have taken a dive into E/USD, let's hear your view on AUD/USD, a market that seems to puzzle a bit. That's a nice way to re-gain the thread's focus. I would invite others to chime in on their view of your comments, applying Strat's technique to the best of their abilities.
Hi Alexandrahttp://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif

This pair is still governed by Dr Joe and any involvement here at this time is putting yourself at the mercy of the major trendline that hangs just about 100 pips away and a supply DSRI which is even closer. Price is still above the 20 and 50 and forming a wedge. I am wating for a clear PA resolution above these SR and DSRI to enter a trade up.

Happy tradinghttp://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif
Jideck
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  • #11,232
  • Apr 3, 2010 5:21pm Apr 3, 2010 5:21pm
Quoting PistolDave
Ok....

Back to business.

Starting with the USDCAD Big Boss chart:

Using your Mark I eyeball, you can see the market has been in a bearish trend for the last 12 months. On a closing basis the market has been forming lower lows and lower highs as it stairstepped down. Until being broken last month, the October 2009 hammer has been the most recent controlling candle containing all price movement for the last five months, which makes the March candle presently controlling.

Interestingly, the January 2010 hammer appeared to be putting...
Hi Davehttp://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif

Good analysis, I have been in this trade more or less at the same time you did enter as I was waiting for the pullback off the major trendline which I have at 1.0261 and if the downside momentum keeps up it should reach 0.9900. Hopefully we can add some additional trades soon.

Happy tradinghttp://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif
Jideck
  • #11,233
  • Apr 3, 2010 5:46pm Apr 3, 2010 5:46pm
Quoting forexample
I keep complaining that I can't post from home and it is still an issue, (writing a quick note from work on lunch is OK but I can't post charts). And though this is a real issue and the techs cant work out whats wrong, I think I have been scared, procrastinating. This is limiting my learning 100%. I am now trying to find a way around it by preparing my notes in email with links then attaching images through IMG tags to tinypic rather than uploading to the thread (something else I can't do) and am getting the codes from support now.


For...
Hi Forexamplehttp://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif

It is good to own up and get it off your chest, we are here to learn and admit to our mistakes and errors, it is supposed to help you to become a better trader, and you will, when you realise that you need to stick to the principles which are tought here. No matter hard hard you learn and learn and more learn if you do not follow it up with a hard principles from which you do not deviate, then you might as well as to give up. However as long as you are committed to become a better trader, you will find people on this thread who will guide you and encourage you to trade better. We are facing the same issues with trading, but there must come a time when you must choose the right path, as much as the greed is taking over, you have a power to put it aside, you will win in the end by taking small steps forward, look at your MM, and losing 50% of your account, whatever small, will not happen again. Take time off and think what could you do to not repeat it again.
It feels like I am rambling, however I need to tell you that I have been there before and what helped me was time off that I took from trading and setting some rules for myself so I could do this better.

Reread the thread couple of times, especially the parts which deal with the man in the mirror stuff.

Happy tradinghttp://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif
Jideck
  • #11,234
  • Apr 3, 2010 6:41pm Apr 3, 2010 6:41pm
Hi Tradershttp://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif

Here is my take on EURNZD:

Big boss - in downtrend since March 2009, there is no bottom as yet in sight.

Boss - Last week closed as a doji, price below 20 and below the supply DSRI, it is not making a big moves down but a small gains downwards.

Worker - Price made a reverse turn on the 31/3 to push up but it was rejected (Price rejection on 50%Fib and MA20, daily SR and Supply DSRI) for a continuation of the down momentum to see whether the "double bottom" was a fake.

Happy tradinghttp://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif
Jideck
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  • #11,235
  • Apr 3, 2010 7:14pm Apr 3, 2010 7:14pm
Quoting kaunasny
Hello all,...
Hey . . . Eur/Jpy is mine! You can't have her!

The monthly candle looks like a BUEB that has already broken to the upside. I'm a bar guy and still trying to get use to looking at candles, so bear with me. If the bullish "story" is for REAL, I wouldn't be surprised if price retraces to 133, which would place it in the vicinity of the 20.

If you look at the weekly, you'll see that price closed above the 20 and could be headed to the 50 next. It's been building a base off of that 120 area for weeks and has finally started to get its groove on.

Finally, on the daily there is what looks like one those hanging men, which tells me this pair could go either way. I'm doing what I do best these days, sitting on my hands. With overhead resistance at 128, it's better to just watch and wait.

I also see minor resistance at 131 and 133. You just never know with these crazy yen crosses. The pig men may decide "it's time for distribution" and bring the stock market down and the yen crosses will come crashing back down again with it. Trade safe everyone.
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"Don't trade to trade . . . trade to win." - James16
  • #11,236
  • Edited 7:43pm Apr 3, 2010 7:32pm | Edited 7:43pm
Nice healthy discussions. If a consensus can be reached here in the various pairs, using Strat's methods to the fullest, the odds of success for those on the thread are quite high. More importantly, the losses will be minimal, allowing the successful trades to build the equity. No harm in posting a controversial view; the marketplace of ideas should show the way. So far we have definite directions in the commodity pairs, and contrasting views on E/J. Per Strat's models, generally the choice is between staying out versus entering in the clear direction. Not too tough a choice, often. If one is conservative, turning to the nexr trade is appropriate. I am impressed with the recent flurry of longer term charts.
  • #11,237
  • Apr 3, 2010 8:04pm Apr 3, 2010 8:04pm
Should be interesting to see what Daddy does when he approaches the 95 to 96 area. Will he bust through with authority or cower in fear . . .
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"Don't trade to trade . . . trade to win." - James16
  • #11,238
  • Edited 8:28pm Apr 3, 2010 8:10pm | Edited 8:28pm
Quoting Flem26
Should be interesting to see what Daddy does when he approaches the 95 to 96 area. Will he bust through with authority or cower in fear . . .
Yes, the projection off of your weekly pattern would be 102 or so; but the neckline needs to fall first. Worth watching the PA, as always. Entry here if one is not in yet is a bit dicey at these levels and likely mandates waiting at this stage, as this is neither a breakout nor a pure S/R trading thread. Those who are appropriately long after the monthly flag simply need to manage stops without chasing more positions. Shorts need more data in absence of fundamantal rationale. I remain concerned that most major banks have endorsed a weaker target, though I am reassured that the chart patterns do not show that they are positioned this way.
  • #11,239
  • Apr 4, 2010 2:46am Apr 4, 2010 2:46am
As has been posted already in this thread, RBA has a surprise meeting monday in which it will make an announcement on the cash rate. FF calendar predicts it will raise the rate .25% - I am far from expert but I do not believe this prediction has already been built into the price. Unlike previous cash rate expectations this one doesnt seem to be a solid prediction, just idle speculation which nobody has acted on because they dont really have a clue. Therefore I believe the AUD will move significantly either up or down no matter what the announcement is. I know many people here including myself have been watching aud/usd closely as it hits solid resistance of upper trendline, might be best to wait a couple of days.
si hoc legere scis nimium eruditionis habes
  • #11,240
  • Edited 7:24am Apr 4, 2010 7:10am | Edited 7:24am
Quoting strat
For those on The Path of Learning (Lurkers - you know where to go), at the end of the week, post a Top Down analysis of your favourite pair(s) for others to analyse and comment.

Between y'all you should be able to cover all the pairs.

(Y'all is for PistolDave).

The Strat team will just observe unless there is something blatantly obvious.

I tried to do a "top down" analysis of my favourite pair last night and got slapped! Good job the trouble and strife wasn't there!

GBP.NZ

20year lookback: shows support level/previous 20 year low at 2.1676

monthly: shows steady downtrend since Dec 06 with oct 09 hammer tail peircing the 2.1676 low but closing above. Jan 2010 doji low at approx. 2.1676.
Feb 2010 BEEB low at approx same level. march 2010 doji open/close at approx same figure. On this basis, I conclude 2.1676 is an important level and that we should be looking for PA on the boss and/or worker.

weekly: Oct 09 - each week in Oct either closed or opened very close to the 2.1676 level. Month of Oct ended with impulsive move up but the market did not follow through and price dropped back to the 2.1676 level to form another (slightly higher) low on weeks of 4th and 11th jan. Price then formed LH around 2.28 before falling back to the 2.16xx level at end of feb. Nice hammer like bar end of feb, followed by beautiful hammer on the week 8 March. Week 15 march, bar contained within this hammer, but the doji of 22 March sets a new 20 years low, though open and close of this doji are contained by the hammer. The last week of march shows strong bullish bar, but no upside break of the hammer.

daily: Early Jan (4th to 1th) price respected 2.1676 perfectly, turned and ran approx 1300 pips to upside, before downtrend resumed, took out 2.1676 late feb, gave us a bond hammer 10 march before continuing down to app 2.09 on 26march. Price bullish since 26march with a break of the daily downtrend and 20ema.


Conclusion: I am looking at daily for HH (>2.20), retrace and HL (>2.0911) to initiate position long with stop at 2.09 and target 1 of 2.28+
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