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  • #11,141
  • Mar 31, 2010 11:19pm Mar 31, 2010 11:19pm
Quoting pipfx
Looks like a big BEOB forming right at support and confluence with an upward TL.

This could be a ride down to .99
This could be a ride down to .99

I hope you see some lines between where PRICE is at now and 0.99!

If not, you know where to go and in a hurry!

First, having broken a 3 week support, we NEED to see what PRICE will do at confluence of support and psycho 1.5000.

Many a novice will lose his ass selling direct into support.

Then, if that support holds, we are then faced with the 3 week support (again but now acting as resistance) AND the resistance of the broken up TL, not to mention our 2 MAs now joined together.

Low risk, STRESS FREE trading is WAITING (PATIENCE) to see the outcome of all this and acting on PASR (DISCIPLINE).

However, if you want to gamble and fly in the face of probability, don't come back here crying (Crying - Roy Orbison)!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #11,142
  • Edited 11:43pm Mar 31, 2010 11:24pm | Edited 11:43pm
Quoting tmanbone
http://i43.tinypic.com/abjoqo.gif

This one sticks out like a sore thumb. It should be self explanatory; if you've followed the path.

http://i41.tinypic.com/aczh5h.gif

A break of lower trend line & BOSS 50, or vise versa a break of upper trendline and BOSS 20, will get my attention. Stealers Wheel - "Stuck in the Middle with You"
You are learning FAST!

Charts ZOOMED OUT to see the BIG PICTURE

Only looking for PA at SR

Pretty soon you will have caught up with me!

Note: On AUDCAD you should add in S at 0.926ish - this is more meaningful than the up TL
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #11,143
  • Apr 1, 2010 12:09am Apr 1, 2010 12:09am
Quoting strat
You are learning FAST!

Charts ZOOMED OUT to see the BIG PICTURE

Only looking for PA at SR

Pretty soon you will have caught up with me!

Note: On AUDCAD you should add in S at 0.926ish - this is more
meaningful than the up TL
"Rock Steady" Bad Company. I appreciate you.
T
  • #11,144
  • Apr 1, 2010 12:55am Apr 1, 2010 12:55am
For those on The Path of Learning (Lurkers - you know where to go), at the end of the week, post a Top Down analysis of your favourite pair(s) for others to analyse and comment.

Between y'all you should be able to cover all the pairs.

(Y'all is for PistolDave).

The Strat team will just observe unless there is something blatantly obvious.

I tried to do a "top down" analysis of my favourite pair last night and got slapped! Good job the trouble and strife wasn't there!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #11,145
  • Apr 1, 2010 1:36am Apr 1, 2010 1:36am
Anyway, one of those Simon and Garth'suncle songs
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15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #11,146
  • Apr 1, 2010 1:44am Apr 1, 2010 1:44am
I would like to wish everyone a Happy Easter.

Please enjoy the holiday and don't eat too much nor drink too much.

Femi
  • #11,147
  • Apr 1, 2010 1:53am Apr 1, 2010 1:53am
The sellers showed that they care about 1.07 level and 20. But it have a double bottom formed.

(still long from 17th hammer and yesterday's low was two pips above my SL. But I've took mysq first profit at 100 pips, so I can take the SL )
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  • #11,148
  • Apr 1, 2010 2:21am Apr 1, 2010 2:21am
Even though I have been praised a couple of times for identifying SR to the pip (a fluke - just luck), and even though I like to pinpoint a specific PRICE for SR, I still treat it (them) as energy levels.

Go back to my posts on SR where I describe the market as energy with the buyers and sellers exerting energy.

The SR levels are like magnetic fields. Depending on whether it is a "like" or "repel" field, as PRICE approaches the energy level, it is either attracted or repelled.

The nearer price gets to the energy level, the more PRICE reacts to it.

It is our job to see and watch what it does as it approaches, hits and stops/goes through an energy level.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #11,149
  • Edited 9:02am Apr 1, 2010 3:27am | Edited 9:02am
Quoting strat
For those on The Path of Learning (Lurkers - you know where to go), at the end of the week, post a Top Down analysis of your favourite pair(s) for others to analyse and comment.
I won't have time at the end of the week so I'll do a mid-week.

I've been watching USDCHF myself

USDCHF Monthly in an overall downtrend making LL and LH, with the exception of December. Momentum is still down with the 20 below the 50. Note of caution is the December reversal signal and it's resulting HL. March is now closed and shows a BEEB indicating the preference is for the downtrend to continue or at least begin populating the forming triangle.

USDCHF Weekly in an overall downtrend but showing considerably more consolidation between 1.2200 and 1.0000 indicating we may be nearing a turning point. 20 is still below the 50 but showing slowing momentum to the downside. This week's candle has already broken control of the 2 weeks ago hammer indicating the possibility of further downside. We need to see resolution of this candle before making any firm conclusions.

USDCHF Daily is a dangerous animal right now. The daily had been making HH and HL until last week. Price has broken the daily DSRI and the 20 is below the 50 but you still have the 1.5000 psycho to content with. Also, of great importance to me is the RED trend line. I've always drawn these kinds of lines through the middle of chop and they hold true. There is some serious support at 1.5000 and until I see PASR BELOW my red line and 1.5000, I'm on the sidelines.

My guess is that price will ping pong around in the red/black triangle before going on to fill in the larger weekly triangle lower.

-m
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  • #11,150
  • Apr 1, 2010 5:43am Apr 1, 2010 5:43am
Quoting tmanbone
http://i43.tinypic.com/abjoqo.gif

This one sticks out like a sore thumb. It should be self explanatory; if you've followed the path.

http://i41.tinypic.com/aczh5h.gif

A break of lower trend line & BOSS 50, or vise versa a break of upper trendline and BOSS 20, will get my attention. Stealers Wheel - "Stuck in the Middle with You"
Hello tmanbone,
you are using 250 and 50 sma and 100 and 20 ema as I expect..... but I'm wondering why they look so different to mine.
Thanks
Max
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  • #11,151
  • Apr 1, 2010 6:52am Apr 1, 2010 6:52am
I got your point tmanbone and I know that the thread is full of good tread's reasons but,how many times have you seen "my trade failed because...,my analyse was wrong because...,i'm in this trade and I put my SL (cosed/add) because the previous candles/swing is....? Thanks.
My humble opinion.
  • #11,152
  • Apr 1, 2010 8:41am Apr 1, 2010 8:41am
Quoting strat
Even though I have been praised a couple of times for identifying SR to the pip (a fluke - just luck), and even though I like to pinpoint a specific PRICE for SR, I still treat it (them) as energy levels.

Go back to my posts on SR where I describe the market as energy with the buyers and sellers exerting energy.

The SR levels are like magnetic fields. Depending on whether it is a "like" or "repel" field, as PRICE approaches the energy level, it is either attracted or repelled.

The nearer price gets to the energy level, the more PRICE reacts...
Greetings Strat,

I have been grappling with the problem of the "correct" placement of SR lines and have had some very helpful private advice from Blackeagle on this, one of his favourite subjects.

This such an important subject being one of the two basic planks of your PASR method.

It seems to me that your description of these levels as being energy levels rather than specific price points is far more useful in the real time trading situation.

Finding price points for SR levels, is a very subjective matter, with bar high and low prices coming into play as often as opening and closing prices.

Would it be fair to say that your concept of "energy levels" is the same as Price Pivot Zones (PPZ) which are described on some other threads?

Thanks for your attention,

Roger
"Make everything as simple as possible, but not simpler" Albert Einstein
  • #11,153
  • Edited 3:05pm Apr 1, 2010 9:07am | Edited 3:05pm
Quoting dorellino
Hello tmanbone,
you are using 250 and 50 sma and 100 and 20 ema as I expect..... but I'm wondering why they look so different to mine.
Thanks
Max
Your 250 is set to 200 and your 50 looks linear weighted instead of simple.
T
  • #11,154
  • Apr 1, 2010 9:41am Apr 1, 2010 9:41am
Quoting igmal
I got your point tmanbone and I know that the thread is full of good tread's reasons but,how many times have you seen "my trade failed because...,my analyse was wrong because...,i'm in this trade and I put my SL (cosed/add) because the previous candles/swing is....? Thanks.
Check out these screen shots of Strat's trades: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...55459&page=280
look a few pages back and few forward. Entry, stops, exits, and money management have as many personalities as the traders using/applying them. This is why it is hard to nail down specifics. We need to learn more about you and where you are at, in your trading, to give your questions the best answers. Do an analysis on your favorite pair, with screen shots, so we can see what you see, and help you along your path.

T
T
  • #11,155
  • Apr 1, 2010 10:08am Apr 1, 2010 10:08am
Quoting strat
This could be a ride down to .99

I hope you see some lines between where PRICE is at now and 0.99!

If not, you know where to go and in a hurry!

First, having broken a 3 week support, we NEED to see what PRICE will do at confluence of support and psycho 1.5000.

Many a novice will lose his ass selling direct into support.

Then, if that support holds, we are then faced with the 3 week support (again but now acting as resistance) AND the resistance of the broken up TL, not to mention our 2 MAs now joined together.

Low risk,...
Thanks Strat. Points taken.

I definitely have more lines, I post a lot from work where I don't have access to all my charts. .99 being the last stop.

I did miss the some of the other points you have made.
  • #11,156
  • Apr 1, 2010 11:55am Apr 1, 2010 11:55am
Thank you T ! I will do it,because as you said,I need help on the path.
My humble opinion.
  • #11,157
  • Apr 1, 2010 12:05pm Apr 1, 2010 12:05pm
Strat,

New to this thread.

Thank you for sharing Dr. Joe.... Humbling,
BR

Quoting strat
Thank you for the PMs on indicators and price action. Rather than answer individually, I will do it through this post, if I may....
  • #11,158
  • Apr 1, 2010 1:42pm Apr 1, 2010 1:42pm
I choose gbp/usd(this is my favourite pair). M-last montly closed as a doji,after touching the strong S(1.4775). W-under the influence of 2 bond hammers,and making double bottom,strong bueb(not closed yet),has bugun to make HH. D-bullish trand(short term),making double bottom and started after an inverted hammer,goes through TL,but not yet above the last bear swing.With a confirmation of HH,HL I will look for long. I noticed on mothly chart that the trand changed after a doji are very strong.
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My humble opinion.
  • #11,159
  • Apr 1, 2010 3:02pm Apr 1, 2010 3:02pm
Quoting tmanbone
Your 250 is set to 200. Hope this helps.
Tmambone, that is not the case, sorry. It is 250. If everyone else has it plotted like yours there must be something wrong with my mt4, I guess.
  • #11,160
  • Apr 1, 2010 4:01pm Apr 1, 2010 4:01pm
Many many years ago I was reading the autobiography of a man named Barry Crump, and a piece of it has always stuck in my mind.
Barry was on something of a spiritual journey - looking into various religions trying to find his "correct" path in life. At the time this story takes place he was looking into the bahai faith. He collected some Bahai literature and spent a few months reading and pondering it but still wasnt sure if it was for him.
One day he was driving a deserted road in the middle of nowhere and stopped to pick up a young hitchhiker. The kid picked up a Bahai book, spent a few minutes flicking through it and confidently anounced that this was the true religion. Barry told the kid he wasnt sure, it was just something he was looking into, and the kid replied "But this is it! this is the truth!" Barry was of course shocked that in a couple of minutes this guy 'saw the light' while he had spent months trying to figure it out.

As I read this thread, I feel exactly like that. I have only been studying forex for a few months and am still demo trading but reading through this thread I heard a distinct clicking sound coming from somewhere between my ears. (or should I seek medical advice?)
Ahhh, the penny drops.... but being skeptical and analytical in nature, I caught the penny just before it hit the floor and tried a little experiment. I pulled up all my 1Hr price charts and studied past price action very carefully. I looked at every movement, every reversal, and asked myself the following questions: Was that movement indicated beforehand? could I have predicted it? The answer, almost invariably, was no I could not have predicted it.
I then switched all my charts to 1D timeframes and did the same thing. The results were amazing - suddenly I could see price bouncing off obvious S/R levels just as it is supposed to do, and price reversals proudly announcing their arrival with hammers, shooting stars and dojis. I immediately deleted all my indicators and saved my new chart layout on 1D timeframes.

Thanks very much strat - you have provided us with a gift which has clearly cost you a huge amount of time, effort and money acquiring. Of course I will demo trade it for a month or so first and will likely adjust it to suit myself since I have a couple of minor issues with it, but I am certain now that when I go live my trading system will be based heavily on the teachings in this thread.
si hoc legere scis nimium eruditionis habes
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