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  • #219,781
  • Edited 3:41am Apr 2, 2010 3:39am | Edited 3:41am
Morning!
You can use NFP EA to earn more profit (if you have enough deposit).

Expectations of NFP:
Bloomberg - 184K
Goldman Sachs -200K
Morgan Stanley -250k

If the results are between 180-200K I think they're movement won't be big, especialy when we know that European banks will not work on monday too...
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 NFP_Pilot.ex4   14 KB | 322 downloads
File Type: pdf nfp_pilot.pdf   137 KB | 1,377 downloads
  • #219,782
  • Apr 2, 2010 3:39am Apr 2, 2010 3:39am
Quoting darkwband
Your point is that we must not trade news (even if 2 IMPORTANT and 1 MEDIUM in EXACTLY ONE TIME) ?
True , news are only tool that used for every manipulator & money makers & cause us failure . though it can give any pips within very short time but ultimately will take back also. give 1 time, give 2 time & 3 time will take all plus extra we used to continue bet extra money in lust,simple gambling theory.

Other than news we can tailor our trades with calculated loss & profit & can success in ease in a fair market.
But unfortunately they are everywhere & extremely difficult to filter them out in forex.

fontu
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #219,783
  • Apr 2, 2010 3:42am Apr 2, 2010 3:42am
this is a tonn of bs

lol no offense i had to say it after i read ur post


Quoting mercy seat
Good morning!


Yes - I have just read your post here. That is the main reason why I do never use 'STOP LOSS ORDERS'. I have learned from an old Trading Desk Trader from a very well known Financial Service that most of the trades are wiped out of too tight stop loss orders - just because most of the participitiants do not have the nerves to sit out the shit ideas they had when they entered a trade.

A 'STOP LOSS' is mostly a garanty that you will make a loss.

For that reason - we use only 'Stop reverse' (minimum 3x amount of previous position...
Its all in the mind.
  • #219,784
  • Apr 2, 2010 3:46am Apr 2, 2010 3:46am
Quoting 40pipPerDay
As what I said before, market hold between 3590 - 3580 for 5 hours, Tokyo open it shown down till now. As we know Euro bank holiday & nfp for US Open for this 2 senario, I strongly believe (refer to chart & news) it will down 3423 & 3384.
Now we can see start Tokyo open untill now (9 hour), it show bear. Waiting US Open it will down (trendline show down for 1h, 4h & 1d). It will down to 3414 (support 3) maybe to 3380.
  • #219,785
  • Apr 2, 2010 3:47am Apr 2, 2010 3:47am
Only 15 min to close H1 9th setup , preparing to close all shorts & next step, no benefit may get less pips than 1 hr back. 1.3550 got support , if briefly breach this support to 45 area !
fontu
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #219,786
  • Apr 2, 2010 3:47am Apr 2, 2010 3:47am
Okay!


This is from DJ - but as most markets are closed today - due to Bank Holiday - I have decided to stay aside until NFP.


My short entries from yesterday are closed now - I added much higher amounts on higher levels - so my BE was lifted at above 3572 - and I unwinded all that stuff as an aggregated package at 1.56575.


As I have got the idea - that it is not so funny to wait any longer for a few pips more or not - daily equilib at around 3547 - 3526 or at least 1.3502 might be seen as prop up line for intraday trades.

Upside might be capped around Asian Sessions High at 1.35925 or at around 1.3604 - 1.3633 zone in case of an extention.


Sell the rallies is the PAROLE EMIL TO ME - frei nach Erich Kästner !


But I am out and flat now - mir langt es für heute.


In other words - green pips on green pip sauce.


Out and basta!




http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/attach/pdf.gif 2010-04-02_ASIA DAILY FOREX OUTLOOK - Majors.pdf (11.6 KB)





EUR/USD:


To trade higher. Pair supported by improved investor risk appetite, strong rise in euro-zone manufacturing PMI to 40-month high of 56.6 in March (vs 56.3 expected) from 54.2 in February. But EUR/USD gains tempered by continued concerns over euro-zone sovereign debt, caution before U.S. non-farm payrolls data. EUR/USD daily chart positive-biased as stochastics rising from oversold; MACD staged bullish crossover against its exponential moving average; bullish parabolic stop-and-reverse signal hit at 1.3588 yesterday. Resistance at 1.3626 (March 19 high); breach would expose upside to 1.3710 (55-day moving average), then 1.3817 (March 17 reaction high) and 1.3839 (Feb. 9 reaction high). Support at 1.3548 (previous cap set Wednesday), then at 1.3455 (yesterday's low); breach would temper near-term positive outlook, exposing downside to 1.3382 (Wednesday's low), then 1.3265 (10-month low hit March 25) and psychological 1.3200 level.

Weekly chart EUR/USD trend: Bearish - Neutral Range.



Viel Spaß noch => GOOD LUCK ! ! !



More information about other levels and pairs you can get with a click at the LINK below:
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf 2010-04-02_ASIA DAILY FOREX OUTLOOK - Majors.pdf   12 KB | 411 downloads
2013-07-31 Today's Phrase of the Day: Hold off from any recycle bin experts
  • #219,787
  • Apr 2, 2010 3:58am Apr 2, 2010 3:58am
Quoting fontu
True , news are only tool that used for every manipulator & money makers & cause us failure . though it can give any pips within very short time but ultimately will take back also. give 1 time, give 2 time & 3 time will take all plus extra we used to continue bet extra money in lust,simple gambling theory.

Other than news we can tailor our trades with calculated loss & profit & can success in ease in a fair market.
But unfortunately they are everywhere & extremely difficult to filter them out in forex.

fontu
hello,

has there been a time/period (before financial crisis) news could be interpreted. I mean, if Unemployment Claims came out positive for US, E/U came down as a direct reaction to that news and vise versa.
and is financial crisis the cause of the fact that it's so hard to interpret right now?

thanks

PB
  • #219,788
  • Apr 2, 2010 4:06am Apr 2, 2010 4:06am
place buyorders at 1:3540

reasons:
on H1 TF there is bull flag again,
is 50%fibo move from 17.3.2010 - 25.3.2010
is 38.2%fibo move from yesterday upmove
on 1.3532 is 24SMA which should be good for upmove
3540 is also DP
stoploss below 50%fibo yesterday move
  • #219,789
  • Apr 2, 2010 4:14am Apr 2, 2010 4:14am
Might be time for some unwinding down, nfp and all..


1.338 is my average long at the moment and line in the sand but bullish bias continues to even lower levels

one gu trade is up more than 400 and i don't understand those still buying dollars.


out until Tuesday.
Some drink at the fountain of knowledge. Others just gargle !
  • #219,790
  • Apr 2, 2010 4:14am Apr 2, 2010 4:14am
Quoting fontu
Only 15 min to close H1 9th setup , preparing to close all shorts & next step, no benefit may get less pips than 1 hr back. 1.3550 got support , if briefly breach this support to 45 area !
fontu
Done well ,now long at 1.3550 & pending set 10,20,30 pips below also to keep some time.
Lets see how this work before nfp , price will have extreme difficulty before the event and at the same time it may take position at the higher level possible too. done for other pairs as gj,gu & gold .
fontu
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #219,791
  • Apr 2, 2010 4:24am Apr 2, 2010 4:24am
Quoting plan-b
Might be time for some unwinding down, nfp and all..


1.338 is my average long at the moment and line in the sand but bullish bias continues to even lower levels

one gu trade is up more than 400 and i don't understand those still buying dollars.


out until Tuesday.
theres always buyers. theres no market without buyers.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #219,792
  • Apr 2, 2010 4:29am Apr 2, 2010 4:29am
Quoting gatorinla
theres always buyers. theres no market without buyers.
Agree... 388 for long again...
  • #219,793
  • Apr 2, 2010 4:34am Apr 2, 2010 4:34am
3545 have to look, if below 3545 it strongly bear (piviot level)
  • #219,794
  • Apr 2, 2010 4:34am Apr 2, 2010 4:34am
Quoting 40pipPerDay
Agree... 388 for long again...
im on the other side of the coin..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #219,795
  • Apr 2, 2010 4:35am Apr 2, 2010 4:35am
Hi Everyone

I've been admiring from the sidelines for a while now and finally decided to join in as I sometimes have questions which go unanswered.

I've been trading only for about 12 months and i'm learning all the time, especialy from this thread. My trading is vry simple and i'm not gready, just look out for a few pips a day, whilst i'm in training.

I would appreciate some reference points on S/R and Fibs and anything else you think i should read/know.

One question:

I'm thinking of trading the news today, as it comes out. Normally there is a spike in one direction that is good for 10-20 pips. But with it being a public holiday in US and EU will it spike today or just pass without significance?

  • #219,796
  • Apr 2, 2010 4:38am Apr 2, 2010 4:38am
Quoting fontu
Done well ,now long at 1.3550 & pending set 10,20,30 pips below also to keep some time.
Lets see how this work before nfp , price will have extreme difficulty before the event and at the same time it may take position at the higher level possible too. done for other pairs as gj,gu & gold .
fontu
Hi there... as a newbie i ask... assuming that it is a bullish flag, why did u choose 3550 for loading again your long positions? the market is barely dead, so i believe i can ask some clarification without bothering too many people
I don't want a job, i want money!
  • #219,797
  • Apr 2, 2010 4:53am Apr 2, 2010 4:53am
Quoting dario1002
Hi there... as a newbie i ask... assuming that it is a bullish flag, why did u choose 3550 for loading again your long positions? the market is barely dead, so i believe i can ask some clarification without bothering too many people
because 3545 is a strong pivot and because it's bank holiday in most of the countries, banks are not in action which gives speculators more influence. But on the other hand market might be very volatile but as we can see today it is not. Also 3550 is a good are to enter if you trade by the price channels, as you can see from 3267 it is going up in a nice channel and today it should reach support line of the channel, but if you take a daily chart you can see that price went down in a channel from november as well and soon should reach resistance of the channel which gives and impresion that price might go to 3626-3650 and go down much more than 3267.

GL, hope you understood what i said
  • #219,798
  • Apr 2, 2010 4:57am Apr 2, 2010 4:57am
Quoting gatorinla
ok we got movement below 66... 43 + slip is a target of mine st. we should bounce after passing 43 back up some..add fibs ect. ill post more if 43 is passed. 35 pops up as another. if we brick drop these wont matter..

then 3497 repeat bounce crap at any posted target. not hitting the first target is a strong bullish sign
done
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #219,799
  • Apr 2, 2010 5:03am Apr 2, 2010 5:03am
Morning,

Hard day today, the price movement without vol ain't easy to pick a side.

Only NFP will tell us what's going on
I'll concentrate on usdjpy instead
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #219,800
  • Apr 2, 2010 5:05am Apr 2, 2010 5:05am
"April 2 (Bloomberg) -- The euro may drop to a 13-month low of $1.2457 should it complete a so-called dead-cross formation, Tokai Tokyo Securities Co. said, citing trading patterns.



A chart of the 16-nation currency shows its 20- and 90-week moving averages are falling toward the 200-week indicator, suggesting a dead cross pattern will be created, said Yoh Nihei, Tokyo-based trading group manager at Tokai Tokyo. A dead cross appears when a short-term average drops below a longer-term one and signals a security is poised to extend losses.
“The euro may dip below $1.30 and test lower prices,” Nihei said in an interview yesterday. An ichimoku chart also indicates “the euro is still in a downtrend,” he said.



The euro traded at $1.3581 as of 8:08 a.m. in Tokyo after declining from last year’s high of $1.5144 in November. The currency slid 5.7 percent against the dollar last quarter, the biggest three-month drop since September 2008.
As the euro weakens, it is likely to encounter levels of support at $1.3268, $1.3091 and $1.2457, Nihei said. Support refers to an area where buy orders may be clustered.



The first support level represents the euro’s lows from March 25 and 26, which was the weakest since May. The second and third levels represent 76.4 percent and 100 percent Fibonacci retracements of the currency’s advance from $1.2457 on March 4, 2009, to $1.5144 on Nov. 25, Nihei said"


Bloomberg
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Prices oscillate, trends persist. Trend is your friend.
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