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  • #219,681
  • Apr 1, 2010 8:46pm Apr 1, 2010 8:46pm
Quote
gator, you think we are going to see some violent movement tomorrow or do you think the lack of liquidity is going to keep it flat?

Come on man.. I'm officially declaring tomorrow to be among the most ridiculous days since the Thanksgiving Dubai travesty of silly trading..

Racer, I'm in an MB E430
  • #219,682
  • Apr 1, 2010 8:48pm Apr 1, 2010 8:48pm
Quoting gatorinla
you could be dead right and still have a losser.
at the request of my german buddy i posted incomplete #3 .. at that time i did not have a #4. so i made one then . i looked at it and thought i did something wrong. i saw few hits, but it sucked.. but after looking at it again today. i think just maybe.
Yeah, I built some more in around 3585 after the DX touched that 61.8% & the channel. I still think it's gonna test the EU daily TL & 61.8% but I'm not one to miss a position over 25pips so I just added one there.

Nice charts.
  • #219,683
  • Apr 1, 2010 8:48pm Apr 1, 2010 8:48pm
Quoting gatorinla
but after looking at it again today. i think just maybe.
LOL...yeah....I did too, hence the position trade I just took!!! May the force be with us.....lol.....
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #219,684
  • Apr 1, 2010 8:53pm Apr 1, 2010 8:53pm
Quoting 2+2=4ex
gator, you think we are going to see some violent movement tomorrow or do you think the lack of liquidity is going to keep it flat?
man i dont have a clue.. its been all over the last few months. if nfp sucks we dont know what will happen.. everyone thinks if good, usd will shoot up. well if not, will the opposite be true if bad? if bad stocks should fall, commodities should fall.. where is the usd then? will it fall with nfp or will it rise with weaker commodities?
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #219,685
  • Apr 1, 2010 8:54pm Apr 1, 2010 8:54pm
stay out of markets? lol
  • #219,686
  • Apr 1, 2010 8:58pm Apr 1, 2010 8:58pm
Quoting gatorinla
man i dont have a clue.. its been all over the last few months. if nfp sucks we dont know what will happen.. everyone thinks if good, usd will shoot up. well if not, will the opposite be true if bad? if bad stocks should fall, commodities should fall.. where is the usd then? will it fall with nfp or will it rise with weaker commodities?
what's amazing is how there are some out there that already know the numbers. or better yet, it is really amazing there are some who already know how price is going to go.
  • #219,687
  • Apr 1, 2010 9:03pm Apr 1, 2010 9:03pm
Quoting gatorinla
man i dont have a clue.. its been all over the last few months. if nfp sucks we dont know what will happen.. everyone thinks if good, usd will shoot up. well if not, will the opposite be true if bad? if bad stocks should fall, commodities should fall.. where is the usd then? will it fall with nfp or will it rise with weaker commodities?
Even though the number will likely fall below expectations any modest positive number should cause the trend to continue... They may attempt to run stops before selling the news but if we get any number over 100k+ it should be good as the day moves along IMO. The other alternatives are choppy as it seems the chance for a downside move is much greater and would have more room.

Also, as this year moves on we have to keep in mind that it's an election year and people are trying to sell their agenda to the public. The best way to do that is puff up the job numbers and paint a pretty picture for everyone... Dem. or Rep. doesn't matter it seems they always pull that unless they're trying to put the other party into office... Naa, that sounds to much like a conspiricy... I'm sure they're perfectily honest. *L*
  • #219,688
  • Apr 1, 2010 9:12pm Apr 1, 2010 9:12pm
Quoting mmccormac
Even though the number will likely fall below expectations any modest positive number should cause the trend to continue... They may attempt to run stops before selling the news but if we get any number over 100k+ it should be good as the day moves along IMO. The other alternatives are choppy as it seems the chance for a downside move is much greater and would have more room.

Also, as this year moves on we have to keep in mind that it's an election year and people are trying to sell their agenda to the public. The best way to do that is puff up...
the problem I have is deciphering the move on news. it doesn't always act the way that seems most logical. I think news in forex has just become an excuse for the banks to make the larger less conspicuos moves.
  • #219,689
  • Apr 1, 2010 9:14pm Apr 1, 2010 9:14pm
realjumper,

I am with you and feel the same way. I lost over 2/3 my account on losers thru out the last month and a half.

Some poor mm but mostly just could ever get the direction right and continued to lose. I know what I am doing for the most part but this has hurt me.

I try using logic, stop loss, and mm but it has been tuff to get it right and when I do I make a right call I gain very little ground....I trade so small that even a winner seems like a loser...

My last trade is in the negative so this may be my final bow....its too hard to make money with a small account in my opinion.....

I have appreciate everyone'e help....especially, Atlast, Gator, Driver55 and fontu.....

I wish you the best!
  • #219,690
  • Apr 1, 2010 9:14pm Apr 1, 2010 9:14pm
Quoting 40pipPerDay
Aggree with you, but i'm short 3585, tp1=3423, tp2=3384, refer to chart h4, d1
As what I said before, market hold between 3590 - 3580 for 5 hours, Tokyo open it shown down till now. As we know Euro bank holiday & nfp for US Open for this 2 senario, I strongly believe (refer to chart & news) it will down 3423 & 3384.
  • #219,691
  • Apr 1, 2010 9:18pm Apr 1, 2010 9:18pm
Quoting 2+2=4ex
the problem I have is deciphering the move on news. it doesn't always act the way that seems most logical. I think news in forex has just become an excuse for the banks to make the larger less conspicuos moves.
When you play a trend it can really be nice for discount price entries, and if people would pay attention to this fact they would understand whey the "news get's sold" often. If you are a short term trader than it's a bit more of an issue, but if you're using the major trend and pivots for filters it shouldn't hurt you much. I don't pay a ton of attention to fundamentals other than being aware of them so I don't let them change my plan much except for an extreme situation.

I don't claim to know what will happen... I do plan for the worst case but hope for the best.
  • #219,692
  • Apr 1, 2010 9:25pm Apr 1, 2010 9:25pm
Quoting IMARICH1
realjumper,

I am with you and feel the same way. I lost over 2/3 my account on losers thru out the last month and a half.

Some poor mm but mostly just could ever get the direction right and continued to lose. I know what I am doing for the most part but this has hurt me.

I try using logic, stop loss, and mm but it has been tuff to get it right and when I do I make a right call I gain very little ground....I trade so small that even a winner seems like a loser...

My last trade is in the negative so this may be my final bow....its too hard...
yea, there is no mercy in this game. Also not a good idea to trade with a small account. In any case best of luck to you. If there is any consolation it's you're not the first, last or only one to get knocked.
  • #219,693
  • Apr 1, 2010 9:29pm Apr 1, 2010 9:29pm
Quoting IMARICH1
realjumper,

I am with you and feel the same way. I lost over 2/3 my account on losers thru out the last month and a half.

Some poor mm but mostly just could ever get the direction right and continued to lose. I know what I am doing for the most part but this has hurt me.

I try using logic, stop loss, and mm but it has been tuff to get it right and when I do I make a right call I gain very little ground....I trade so small that even a winner seems like a loser...

My last trade is in the negative so this may be my final bow....its too hard...
Thank you IMARICH1.......whatever you do, don't quit. I believe that I am smarter than this market and I will win in the end. For sure lose a few battles here and there, everyone does, but it's the war I'm going to win in the end.

I too began with a little account....$600 in fact. I did that because if I lost the whole amount, I would just put it down the 'cost of my FX education', and I would have learnt the hardest lesson of all...controlling emotion. I haven't lost that initial stake, in fact I am up by a considerable amount, but the winnings have almost dried up this year. By the way, I trade small amounts too.....$1.47 per pip. I won't go for larger lot sizes until my consistency is well and truely 'set in concrete'.

I don't care if my net gain at the end of the month is $500 or $5....a gain is a gain, no? The Tortoise won the race, not the Hare!!

It's unfortunate for me that the good moves come in the wee early hours when I'm asleep, and for most of this year my position trades have been stopped out.....mostly due to interference, but also due to me not waking up to the fact that during this time of bullshitting from the talking heads, I'd be better off not trading at all.

It's hard, but I won't quit.....Trichet and co are full of it.....we shall see who has the last laugh.

Never give up man......
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #219,694
  • Apr 1, 2010 9:33pm Apr 1, 2010 9:33pm
Quoting mmccormac
...but if you're using the major trend and pivots for filters it shouldn't hurt you much. I don't pay a ton of attention to fundamentals other than being aware of them so I don't let them change my plan much except for an extreme situation.

I don't claim to know what will happen... I do plan for the worst case but hope for the best.
Ditto, and I don't stay out of a trade if I think I should be in one regardless of news or anything else. MM is key as it relates to volatility, ie- only risk 3% on a trade and if you expect the possibility of extreme volatility (ie NFP, holiday trade) then trade smaller with wider stops on that 3% of the portfolio.
  • #219,695
  • Apr 1, 2010 9:36pm Apr 1, 2010 9:36pm
I finally figured it out

How to make a small fortune trading forex
Start out with a Large one

The past month was negative for me as well but it was mostly due to not following my own rules. Still a work in progress.

Currently long from 1.34 target mid 1.36 and I ll bee looking for new short positions next wk.

John

Have a Blessed Easter
  • #219,696
  • Apr 1, 2010 9:38pm Apr 1, 2010 9:38pm
I am with you on the account size and trading hours.....I have affected my relationship with my financee on trying to trade the late Asian session and Early London and then go to work at 8am in the US......get 3 hrs of sleep....

The moment I sleep....the moment..that's when the move I was waiting for hits....but, i miss it and close out for a loss or small profit....

I still think if you could capture a small amount of pips with a large account that this is the way to make your capital as you could close 2/3 of your position and let the rest run and maximize profits....

But I trade 1 dollar pip increments now....it was $5 a pip until i got caught in all of this.........time will tell...and as 2+2=4x said...this is not the last account...I've been here for 5 years.....different issues and losses....among winners....but at the end of it all.....still in the RED....one day maybe I will have Atlast as a username...ATLAST! LOL
  • #219,697
  • Apr 1, 2010 9:44pm Apr 1, 2010 9:44pm
Quoting IMARICH1
realjumper,

I am with you and feel the same way. I lost over 2/3 my account on losers thru out the last month and a half.

Some poor mm but mostly just could ever get the direction right and continued to lose. I know what I am doing for the most part but this has hurt me.

I try using logic, stop loss, and mm but it has been...
One big thing that helps me and that gator has said quite a few times through these ranging weeks is "no trade is sometimes a winning trade"

Everyone gets what it means but it won't sink in until you really let it. I've passed on quite few trades these last few weeks. It is hard with a small account to take a 10 pip profit for 5-10 bucks when it's going against you. You must do it. It's hard to not let a draw down go 75 pips when a pip is worth pennies. You have to treat it as if you're trading for 1000/per pip every trade. If you don't, it's like trading a demo account except you beat yourself up when you lose.

Another big thing is, make a plan for the day or week or whatever and stick to it for the WHOLE day. Don't just assume because a senior member says so, that your plan is wrong and theirs is right. Most of the seniors probably recognize a lot quicker when they're wrong and just sit it out. This is how they make money I believe sometimes. Just sitting out.
I mean, if you just have to make it mean something. Try waiting and not trading AT ALL, until you find an A+ trade. One that you can use a stop of say 7-10 pips.

It might take a day or two but if you know what you're doing and you watch a few pairs, these opportunities arise all the time.

Go ahead a risk a full 2 percent, this could put even a small account at 2.50 to 5.00 per pip with 35-50 dollars max risk.

If you pick up 50 pips, you make 250. That's good money for a day. I realize it's not that simple in reality but it can be if you just wait for the A+ setups. The reason is that you will start to see your trading ratio stay consistent and you will really believe in yourself and won't be worrying about your SL.

I mean if you really stick to something conservative, it's hard to lose over and over again.

Just my .02
  • #219,698
  • Apr 1, 2010 9:52pm Apr 1, 2010 9:52pm
Quoting uraceulose

Just my .02
Thats been my problem the past month was not placing pendings and waiting for the price to come to me even if its days
  • #219,699
  • Apr 1, 2010 9:58pm Apr 1, 2010 9:58pm
Quoting IMARICH1
realjumper,

I am with you and feel the same way. I lost over 2/3 my account on losers thru out the last month and a half.

Some poor mm but mostly just could ever get the direction right and continued to lose. I know what I am doing for the most part but this has hurt me.

I try using logic, stop loss, and mm but it has been tuff to get it right and when I do I make a right call I gain very little ground....I trade so small that even a winner seems like a loser...

My last trade is in the negative so this may be my final bow....its too hard...
the worst thing you can do is worry about your account size. focus on % of account.. if your up 3% and there is any doubt about your trade take profit..maybe just let a little part of it run. when its choppy lock in profit early. if you dont take profit there will be none. winners turn to lossers. if you got 30 green pips and your target is 50.. why risk 30 to make 20 more. bring up your sl..or pull some off the table.. a bunch of singles is better then the ocasional grand slam.. IF YOU DONT TAKE PROFIT , THERE WILL BE NO PROFIT.

taken profit can be as simple as bringing up sl
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #219,700
  • Apr 1, 2010 9:58pm Apr 1, 2010 9:58pm
Quoting IMARICH1
I am with you on the account size and trading hours.....I have affected my relationship with my financee on trying to trade the late Asian session and Early London and then go to work at 8am in the US......get 3 hrs of sleep....

The moment I sleep....the moment..that's when the move I was waiting for hits....but, i miss it and close out for a loss or small profit....

I still think if you could capture a small amount of pips with a large account that this is the way to make your capital as you could close 2/3 of your position and let the rest...
blowing an account is out of the question for me... or better, my wife. she checks everyday whether or not i made positive pips... pets my shoulder and leaves me to mr. market. she has no idea how much i sweat sometimes. when i am unsure, i severely reduce price/pip, be it a 200 pip-move or not. i'm learning... so i cannot trade more than 1$/pip, or i shit my pants right on the spot. i tried it, this month... guess what, i lost.
sometimes i think i should let my wife pull the trigger... look at pa right now. i know about all the resistance above 1.3590, and i am not short with 5$/pip... i don't dare...
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