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  • #219,661
  • Apr 1, 2010 8:08pm Apr 1, 2010 8:08pm
check out the euro/cad .. if has a good short set-up atm.. the day trend is down and its near bumping the top of a trendline. so sl can be close. its also a commodity pair. so if oil does take off it goes lower. on the other hand its got the cad. so it reflects usd also with the bennifit of oil. eu is also tapping on a daily upper trend. usdx is on the bottom of a trend.. all speculative. but loss is limited by tl.. great r/r.. oil should be toppy. but toppy oil (a contradiction i know)

i posted this earlier but i forgot chart. so i pulled it to add chart. then life caught up with me. anyway 30 later here it is
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #219,662
  • Apr 1, 2010 8:09pm Apr 1, 2010 8:09pm
Quoting Trendstar
Real jumper- "..there is no fundamental reason for the eu to be where it is"

I agree and believe these markets spend most of their time moving (or being moved) away from where the largest amount of positions are situated. Period. All the big houses/banks have an idea of order flow etc..

I hope you keep the battle going and beat the &%$@ bastards because I enjoy reading your posts!
Thanks Trendstar.....be assured that I won't quit!!! REALLY glad that I had no position for the past couple of days because I would have been stopped out on all of them!!

The Free Floating Currency that we trade on is all bollocks....it's only 'free floating' until some talking heads start moving the 'goal posts'.....iow....intervening. The Swiss and the Japs do it all the time, and it pisses me off. If they can't stant the idea of free floating currency....then they should fix it, and get the f*** out of the market place!!!
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #219,663
  • Apr 1, 2010 8:10pm Apr 1, 2010 8:10pm
Now is not the time to take a position Jumper .. Shake that frustration off, scream your favorite profane sentence into a pillow and get back on the horse next week. This week is over for trading. There is only gambling tomorrow.
  • #219,664
  • Apr 1, 2010 8:13pm Apr 1, 2010 8:13pm
Quoting realjumper
Last post....lol.....

Dude! Don't roll man. At least check in once a day or something and say what's up.

I'm jk, do what ya gotta do.

Take care Jumper,

Donnie
  • #219,665
  • Apr 1, 2010 8:14pm Apr 1, 2010 8:14pm
The Euro did see a 2-4 week bounce and then spiked to new lows. If it can close back above 1.3800/ ECM, the Euro could see a 1-2 month period of consolidation with a secondary peak in May 2010.
This could also corroborate the convergence of multi-year and multi-month cycles coming into play in November 2010 (+ or - 1 month). These include the following:
— 5-year low-low-low Cycle Progression.
— 2-year & 10-year anniversaries of bottoms in 2008 & 2000.
— Successive, 12-month/360-degree declines.
October - December 2010 - the overall period in focus - is an important time frame, reinforced by the U.S. mid-term elections, that could usher in a new, multi-year bull market in the Euro... IF a bottom were being set at that time.
The most important support - which could even be tested at that time - remains what it has been since 2008 - at 1.1550 - 1.1600/EC. This level has recently been reinforced by a potential ‘C’ = ‘A’ wave projection
that anticipates a second decline (since the April 2008 peak) of equal magnitude to the first decline.
  • #219,666
  • Apr 1, 2010 8:15pm Apr 1, 2010 8:15pm
Quoting gatorinla
check out the euro/cad .. if has a good short set-up atm.. the day trend is down and its near bumping the top of a trendline. so sl can be close. its also a commodity pair. so if oil does take off it goes lower. on the other hand its got the cad. so it reflects usd also with the bennifit of oil. eu is also tapping on a daily upper trend. usdx is on the bottom of a trend.. all speculative. but loss is limited by tl.. great r/r.. oil should be toppy. but toppy oil (a contradiction i know)

i posted this earlier but i forgot chart. so i pulled it...
Yeah I did check it out earlier, but just like the eur/usd it's prone to bullshit EZ talking heads at the moment. It should pan out, as should the chart above I just posted, but I'm not going to trade it because I don't trust the talking heads to not interfere some more.....I especially don't trust the NFP as you may have seen in the post of mine here
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #219,667
  • Apr 1, 2010 8:16pm Apr 1, 2010 8:16pm
Quoting gatorinla
check out the euro/cad .. if has a good short set-up atm.. the day trend is down and its near bumping the top of a trendline. so sl can be close. its also a commodity pair. so if oil does take off it goes lower. on the other hand its got the cad. so it reflects usd also with the bennifit of oil. eu is also tapping on a daily upper trend. usdx is on the bottom of a trend.. all speculative. but loss is limited by tl.. great r/r.. oil should be toppy. but toppy oil (a contradiction i know)

i posted this earlier but i forgot chart. so i pulled it...
Nice man! I don't trade that one but I'll watch it and c how it goes. Thx for the heads up.
  • #219,668
  • Apr 1, 2010 8:16pm Apr 1, 2010 8:16pm
not th beat a dead horse but its nfp week. anything can happen.. mcormic put some good stuff out there. i will add below 3566 is a good place to be for the brave who sold todays high.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #219,669
  • Apr 1, 2010 8:18pm Apr 1, 2010 8:18pm
Quoting uraceulose
Dude! Don't roll man. At least check in once a day or something and say what's up.

I'm jk, do what ya gotta do.

Take care Jumper,

Donnie
I won't be far away Donnie....It's only right that I check in here and other FX places while I'm working.....can't give my boss too much of my time....lol.....
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #219,670
  • Apr 1, 2010 8:19pm Apr 1, 2010 8:19pm
The Japanese Yen turned back down, after apparently giving a false intra-year trend signal in February.
This technical ‘curve ball’ was amplified by the weekly trend reversal (higher) seen in February.
These signals confirmed an intermediate bottom with the intra-year trend projecting higher levels into mid-year. The ‘intermediate bottom’ part was accurate - since the corresponding low held for a few months - but the ‘new advance into mid-year’ was dead wrong.
The Yen spiked higher and then reversed lower on March 5th, neutralizing this intra-year trend in the process and turning its weekly 21 MAC down (a 2-3 month signal). As the following, March 6, 2010 Weekly Re-Lay explained, this ushered in a new reality:
“The Yen did rally further and did surge above 1.1290/JYH but did not make it to 1.1500/ JYH and could already be signaling a reversal lower...The Yen set its highest close on March
3rd, completing the 27-day low-high-high Cycle Progression that was discussed last week...the Yen turned its new, intra-month trend down. This argues against another rally into mid-month. Second, it turned its weekly 21 MAC down - a bearish signal on a 2-3 month basis. If the Yen
can drop below 1.1000/JYH in the coming week, it would extend this new downtrend...the wave structure is beginning to look more like the Yen just completed a ‘b’ wave rally and is entering a ‘c’ wave decline. The way in which it spiked above it’s Feb. 4th peak (fulfilling the daily trend pattern) -
but could not confirm this with a weekly close above it - shows some developing or underlying weakness.
The daily 21 MAC could also turn lower - in the next 1-3 days - reinforcing this new decline. If this trend and the daily trend turn down, it would project a drop into March 22--26th or March 29-- April 2nd, when an 11-week high-low-low-low-
  • #219,671
  • Apr 1, 2010 8:20pm Apr 1, 2010 8:20pm
Quoting realjumper
I won't be far away Donnie....It's only right that I check in here and other FX places while I'm working.....can't give my boss too much of my time....lol.....
lol, right on. I just don't want to see ya go man. The good posters are getting few and far between.
  • #219,672
  • Apr 1, 2010 8:28pm Apr 1, 2010 8:28pm
Quoting uraceulose
lol, right on. I just don't want to see ya go man. The good posters are getting few and far between.
Thank you. Tell you what.....here's my last position trade for now....next week I'll begin with my new method...ready?....ok.....I just went short at 3573. SL at 3620. TP at 3305. If this pans out.....I'll send Trichet an Easter egg....and I hope he chokes on it!!!!
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #219,673
  • Apr 1, 2010 8:28pm Apr 1, 2010 8:28pm
I'm starting to wonder if my pending sell at 3600 will get triggered!
All that is left in FF is just plain garbage. "Cloggie"
  • #219,674
  • Apr 1, 2010 8:31pm Apr 1, 2010 8:31pm
Just a possibility to consider.. I am kicking around the notion that we could be forming a massive & strong rising wedge that could take us to 138 before losing momentum. Why? Who knows, the fundamentals are crappy which is why selling looks so good fundamentally.

In this scenario, pullbacks would have to be very minor (135.40) if we get it then a strong thrust up. I am always saying 'short squeeze' which is exactly what this formation is all about and also what adds fuel to the upside momentum.
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  • #219,675
  • Apr 1, 2010 8:31pm Apr 1, 2010 8:31pm
Quoting realjumper
Thank you. Tell you what.....here's my last position trade for now....next week I'll begin with my new method...ready?....ok.....I just went short at 3573. SL at 3620. TP at 3305. If this pans out.....I'll send Trichet an Easter egg....and I hope he chokes on it!!!!
I'm 2 pips behind you. edit: so if u get stopped out, u won't be alone. Or we make profit together
  • #219,676
  • Apr 1, 2010 8:32pm Apr 1, 2010 8:32pm
naw.. just a little pullback.. we'll test that 1.36 psych resistance.

http://www.automedia.com/NewCarBuyer..._NSX_ext_1.jpg
  • #219,677
  • Apr 1, 2010 8:35pm Apr 1, 2010 8:35pm
Watch out next week bulls, Bernake & Co. are having emergency meeting on Monday to discuss discount rate change.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/fed...unt-rate-again

http://www.federalreserve.gov/boardd...dvancedexp.htm
  • #219,678
  • Apr 1, 2010 8:35pm Apr 1, 2010 8:35pm
Quoting Pippy5000
naw.. just a little pullback.. we'll test that 1.36 psych resistance.

http://www.automedia.com/NewCarBuyer..._NSX_ext_1.jpg
Here's a couple pics of my daily driver man. The camaro gets about 8 mpg

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  • #219,679
  • Apr 1, 2010 8:37pm Apr 1, 2010 8:37pm
Quoting realjumper
Yeah I did check it out earlier, but just like the eur/usd it's prone to bullshit EZ talking heads at the moment. It should pan out, as should the chart above I just posted, but I'm not going to trade it because I don't trust the talking heads to not interfere some more.....I especially don't trust the NFP as you may have seen in the post of mine here
you could be dead right and still have a losser.
at the request of my german buddy i posted incomplete #3 .. at that time i did not have a #4. so i made one then . i looked at it and thought i did something wrong. i saw few hits, but it sucked.. but after looking at it again today. i think just maybe.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #219,680
  • Apr 1, 2010 8:42pm Apr 1, 2010 8:42pm
gator, you think we are going to see some violent movement tomorrow or do you think the lack of liquidity is going to keep it flat?
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