Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

SSI: Retail GBPUSD Positioning Flips on 18% Drop in Longs 22% Build in Shorts
Tuesday, 30 Mar 2010 19:41 GMT
Written by John Kicklighter



Intraday Highlight:

GBPUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPUSD stands at -1.06 as nearly 51% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.41 as 59% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 18.2% lower than yesterday and 11.7% weaker since last week. Short positions are 22.1% higher than yesterday and 10.3% stronger since last week. Open interest is 1.5% weaker than yesterday and 1.3% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPUSD gains.

SSI Details:

EURUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at 1.04 as nearly 51% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.47 as 60% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 17.2% higher than yesterday and 5.4% weaker since last week. Short positions are 23.7% lower than yesterday and 24.9% stronger since last week. Open interest is 7.2% weaker than yesterday and 3.0% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more EURUSD losses.

GBPJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPJPY stands at -1.26 as nearly 56% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.01 as 50% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 13.8% lower than yesterday and 28.4% weaker since last week. Short positions are 7.0% higher than yesterday and 30.7% stronger since last week. Open interest is 3.4% weaker than yesterday and 2.8% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPJPY gains.

USDJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at -1.24 as nearly 55% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.16 as 54% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 3.5% lower than yesterday and 27.6% weaker since last week. Short positions are 3.1% higher than yesterday and 72.3% stronger since last week. Open interest is 0.1% stronger than yesterday and 2.8% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY gains.

USDCAD - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCAD stands at 2.24 as nearly 69% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.98 as 66% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 2.8% higher than yesterday and 18.5% weaker since last week. Short positions are 9.2% lower than yesterday and 49.0% weaker since last week. Open interest is 1.3% weaker than yesterday and 9.5% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCAD losses.

USDCHF - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCHF stands at 3.43 as nearly 77% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 4.42 as 82% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 4.2% lower than yesterday and 7.0% weaker since last week. Short positions are 23.4% higher than yesterday and 14.0% stronger since last week. Open interest is 0.9% stronger than yesterday and 15.5% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCHF losses.

AUDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the AUDUSD stands at -2.60 as nearly 72% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -2.11 as 68% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 10.1% lower than yesterday and 15.3% weaker since last week. Short positions are 10.6% higher than yesterday and 39.8% stronger since last week. Open interest is 3.9% stronger than yesterday and 18.2% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more AUDUSD gains.

NZDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the NZDUSD stands at -1.18 as nearly 54% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.01 as 50% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 18.4% lower than yesterday and 19.2% weaker since last week. Short positions are 4.3% lower than yesterday and 3.6% stronger since last week. Open interest is 11.4% weaker than yesterday and 15.1% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more NZDUSD gains.

good, I was waiting for a green light for long G/U

buy limit order G/U : 1.50 SL=1.4925 TP=1.5375

keep SL in place

U/J buy limit changed to today pivot at 92.66

Oh, dang, give me a correction first so I can load them up. How about a surprise Chinese tightening on Friday along with NFP I don't feel like buying at this level. Just had a quick flick over monthly ranges. Nothing stood out really except for A/U. It's only done 292 pips this month and the ATR for the last 12 months has been 547. Must be going to shoot up for the last day of March. Guess I'll just have to hold on to see the reaction - it's 1.15 am in the morning here and I want to go to bed.

A/J monthly has room to go till 90, I'm super bullish on U/J and at the same time I prefer USD over others, in USD longs I think the best are U/J long and U/Chf long

De nada. Glad it is of use. As to how they worked out the percentage loss, I looked at my weekly candle and from open to close there was a move of 123 pips so not quite 1.00%. I guess it depends on what feed they are using.

I thought that you used automated trading with no human emotions. I find it interesting that you still like to keep up with funnymentals. I've seen some traders on here who are purely technical and don't give a hoot about them.

I loaded up long U/Chf at 1.0650 SL=1.05750 ,this is 3rd time in a row I try to load up longs on this pair, lets see how it goes

U/J and A/J have basically done their monthly ATR so I wasn't expecting too much of an explosion from them today. Actually E/G's ATR for the last 12 months is 385. It's only done 270. Could see some downside today.

Ho - down we go ..... Puks was right. It's gapped though ...

Patience load up long U/J at 92.66 , I know you like long U/J

Shahab8b

wow, look who is here, Ben10!!! where have you been my old friend? we all missed you in A/U thread.

He, he - that's one of the worst majors to trade imo. That data just knocked those rate expectations on the head. The fact that Mr Stevens was being hawkish the other day made people think the data was going to be good and in just two days the expectations went from 50% on Friday to 72% or something today. Still a nice yield though and there is a gap Bedtime for me. Catch you tomorrow.

hopefully I'm right this time, I'm heavily long U/J

I told you load up long U/J, I may be right once in a while

hey mate,

I am still holding up my AUD shorts targetting .9130-->9080 and that would be it.

my stops were at .9216 and I will continue to have my stops there.

Retail sales was down worse than expected, as I gladly correctly predicted. Now the next major thing - NO INTEREST RATE HIKE NEXT WEEK.

Puks, you were right , what a retail sales no.

Hey mate, you made it , this no will bring this monster down

U/J long SL at 92. first TP 93.77, then 94.88 ,97

It will have to be.

No way RBA can hike rates after such shocking numbers.

My first post on the thread.

Some will see it as spamming... that's ok.

Most well take an open mind approach and at least view the video once.

Pivots and Fibs... like Peanut Butter and Ham.



Mike