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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #921
  • Mar 30, 2010 9:25am Mar 30, 2010 9:25am
Quoting puks
Hi mate,

You didn't reply to my post but PLEASE dont feel bad about your bad call on AUD. I took call myself and still holding on to it. will partial hedge at .9216 and then again partial hedge at .9255

I am betting on worse than expected retail sales and no interest rate hike next week.

lets see what happens.

cheers
Hi mate,

I did read your post. I wanted to send you a PM which I didn't get the chance. Thank you for all you said ;however ,I'm still sad about the whole thing.
hopefully as you mentioned this trade would turn out to be good for you.
I think market has already priced in rate hike for the next week ( .50 %), if that wont materialized Aussie will hit harder than what everybody think.
the A/U long is extremely overcrowded, there are lots of SL's below .90 handle and I anticipate a sharp fall to .86-85 if they wont raise the rates.
  • #922
  • Mar 30, 2010 9:33am Mar 30, 2010 9:33am
Quoting shahab8b
U/J short :it came down as expected,
I'm bullish on this pair ,
short U/J tp at 91.77 (weekly pivot)

new orders:
buy limit at 91.77 and 91.05 SL=91.50 TP=93 & 97

errr, it seem U/J long train is leaving without us on board
  • #923
  • Mar 30, 2010 9:35am Mar 30, 2010 9:35am
I'm jumping on the train in middle of the way (wont suggest that)

Long U/J from 92.94 SL= 92
  • #924
  • Mar 30, 2010 9:40am Mar 30, 2010 9:40am
Quoting shahab8b
I'm jumping on the train in middle of the way (wont suggest that)

Long U/J from 92.94 SL= 92
Don't know if it will have much more upside today. Have you checked ATR? Last 60 days has been 93 pips. It's done 84 today.
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #925
  • Mar 30, 2010 9:41am Mar 30, 2010 9:41am
here is a good U/J long entry for those who are patient ;

Buy limit at 92.55 above daily pivot, SL=92
  • #926
  • Mar 30, 2010 9:47am Mar 30, 2010 9:47am
Quoting Geppyg
The Trade has not planned out and I will be taking a loss on this position if we do not close below 200 in the next 40 mins.....

Good Day

Geppyg
Trade closed for -14 pips..
Reasons to close:
The trade outside duration of trade time.
Dips are being bought at this momment in time
Five way bridge has not materialised.

I wish you all the best Shah8b8 and will leave you thread to sentimental analysis.

Wish you best of luck

Geppyg
Let Price determine your future!
  • #927
  • Mar 30, 2010 9:48am Mar 30, 2010 9:48am
Quoting Patience
Don't know if it will have much more upside today. Have you checked ATR? Last 60 days has been 93 pips. It's done 84 today.
completely agree, I'm building long U/J, the TF for trade will be at least one week (did you look at the abcd pattern I posted) the pattern may be completed with equal move and time , I pointed the time that I expect we see 97 on the chart (may be around April 8-9 or later)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: uja2.gif Size: 23 KB
  • #928
  • Mar 30, 2010 9:58am Mar 30, 2010 9:58am
Quoting shahab8b
completely agree, I'm building long U/J, the TF for trade will be at least one week (did you look at the abcd pattern I posted) the pattern may be completed with equal move and time , I pointed the time that I expect we see 97 on the chart (may be around April 8-9 or later)
I won't be shorting this major, that's for sure and I did see your abcd pattern. 4 hour Jurik has given hidden bullish divergence and has just crossed up. Daily, weekly and monthly are green and good to go barring any indice sell off although that correlation may be changing with the interest rate expectations/differential coming into play more now. Sent you a PM about something.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: uj-4hour.jpg Size: 162 KB
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #929
  • Mar 30, 2010 9:59am Mar 30, 2010 9:59am
Quoting Geppyg
Trade closed for -14 pips..
Reasons to close:
The trade outside duration of trade time.
Dips are being bought at this momment in time
Five way bridge has not materialised.

I wish you all the best Shah8b8 and will leave you thread to sentimental analysis.

Wish you best of luck

Geppyg
My friend ,this thread is not limited to sentiment analysis, as you see lots of trades are purely technical. Having said that I always appreciate your great charts and professional grade A analysis.

Shahab
  • #930
  • Mar 30, 2010 10:00am Mar 30, 2010 10:00am
Quoting shahab8b
E/U: that one was the sell limit order at 1.3525 that I mentioned before but I no longer suggested here after getting hit hard at A/U short
I did take this one, however, only one position and closed it for +50
otherwise, it's +100 now...

shahab, most of your trade analysis and suggestion still good, and do not blame yourself for A/U. do not loose your confident.

  • #931
  • Mar 30, 2010 10:05am Mar 30, 2010 10:05am
Quoting Patience
I won't be shorting this major, that's for sure and I did see your abcd pattern. 4 hour Jurik has given hidden bullish divergence and has just crossed up. Daily, weekly and monthly are green and good to go barring any indice sell off although that correlation may be changing with the interest rate expectations/differential coming into play more now. Sent you a PM about something.

Attachment

thanx for the chart, I think to buy deep U/J whenever we see a pull back,
I've been waiting to long this pair since the start of the week, but I lost the chance to take longs at a classic setting at R>S at 92.14

I think buy limit at 92.55 is good for now
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: uja3.gif Size: 19 KB
  • #932
  • Mar 30, 2010 10:14am Mar 30, 2010 10:14am
Quoting shahab8b
thanx for the chart, I think to buy deep U/J whenever we see a pull back,
I've been waiting to long this pair since the start of the week, but I lost the chance to take longs at a classic setting at R>S at 92.14

I think buy limit at 92.55 is good for now
Well the first little test is here. Stocks pulling back at the moment and U/J is taking it on the chin very well. Let's see how well it holds up.
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #933
  • Mar 30, 2010 10:21am Mar 30, 2010 10:21am
E/U

what I expected but after a couple of wrong calls I lost the confidence in this call
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #934
  • Mar 30, 2010 10:45am Mar 30, 2010 10:45am
Quoting rainbows
I did take this one, however, only one position and closed it for +50
otherwise, it's +100 now...

shahab, most of your trade analysis and suggestion still good, and do not blame yourself for A/U. do not loose your confident.


oh really,that's good , + 50 pips is good.
thanks for you comment.
are you in U/J long - if not wait a bit to get a good entry at 92.55 and if we ever get to weekly pivot at 91.77 , the TF would be long,we should be patient with it , take position small as SL is quite wide
  • #935
  • Mar 30, 2010 10:48am Mar 30, 2010 10:48am
Quoting Patience
Well the first little test is here. Stocks pulling back at the moment and U/J is taking it on the chin very well. Let's see how well it holds up.
True, I already made the plan, buy dip with SL at 90.50 -small position though as the number of them would increase
  • #936
  • Mar 30, 2010 11:16am Mar 30, 2010 11:16am
Quoting shahab8b
oh really,that's good , + 50 pips is good.
thanks for you comment.
are you in U/J long - if not wait a bit to get a good entry at 92.55 and if we ever get to weekly pivot at 91.77 , the TF would be long,we should be patient with it , take position small as SL is quite wide
still in buy limit at 92.55
let see if we can get boarding.

What's about a/u now, I took short again from 0.92020
  • #937
  • Edited 1:43pm Mar 30, 2010 1:13pm | Edited 1:43pm
Old stuffs ,
E/U ,U/Chf , we are at wave 5th, no TL violation,


U/Chf Buy limit order at weekly Pivot : 1.0647 SL= 1.0575
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: uchf1.gif Size: 20 KB
  • #938
  • Mar 30, 2010 1:30pm Mar 30, 2010 1:30pm
A/U: I'm unsure of it's structure atm, if anyone knows something let me know.
COT is too crowded ,it should top sooner than later, but that remains to be seen.

as we have Retail sales in couple of hours , I try to short if the price jumps;

sell limit at .9250 previous high and .9275 weekly R2 - SL= .9325
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: au1k.gif Size: 23 KB
  • #939
  • Mar 30, 2010 1:52pm Mar 30, 2010 1:52pm
U/J,
it's struggling to overcome the R , MACD 4H may give a buy signal- that remians to be seen. but the trend is up as far as S at 92.11 holds

RRR wise doesn't seem good to enter at R level, so it's better to wait : buy limit at 92.55
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: uja4.gif Size: 20 KB
  • #940
  • Mar 30, 2010 2:30pm Mar 30, 2010 2:30pm
A/J

89 ish may be next week
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aj.gif Size: 17 KB
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