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  • #217,661
  • Mar 29, 2010 2:41pm Mar 29, 2010 2:41pm
Quoting tonyo524
3500 Maybe it will trigger, maybe I may have to jump in and trigger early. Asian session to London, and N.Y close tommorrow. Down, down, down.
Whats your SL?
Trade What You See and Not What You Think
  • #217,662
  • Mar 29, 2010 2:45pm Mar 29, 2010 2:45pm
Quoting Fx Newbie
Whats your SL?
or 20 over last major resistance. But then I hedge, not stop loss.
All that is left in FF is just plain garbage. "Cloggie"
  • #217,663
  • Mar 29, 2010 2:49pm Mar 29, 2010 2:49pm
Quoting malcolmb14
es still managed to hold that 1164 level all day . I think they might do a ifnal push just above 1200 ish before any selling occurs.

It will be interesting to see if the NFP news is good news on Friday and how the market reacts to that . I have been noticing some weakness in the last 2 weeks in the volumes and am looking for any signs of selling into good news to confirm this weakness. So far it has not happened and ES seems like it is on crack .

At the monent DX has a top reversal pattern on daily at 82 ish , although today is a down day on...
As you know I am not a fan of reversal plays, yet one can't ignore the fact that we are going into a holiday period (Easter), so volume will be thinner & with NDX showing medium-high overbought conditions a short-term reversal in stocks is quite likely, perhaps retracement to 20 average.
Prices oscillate, trends persist. Trend is your friend.
  • #217,664
  • Mar 29, 2010 2:49pm Mar 29, 2010 2:49pm
Quoting tonyo524
or 20 over last major resistance. But then I hedge, not stop loss.
I have a hedge in place as well. I am currently up 30 pips from last night on my long and down 30 on my short which I thought it was finally turning down but guess I was wroing. Once we reach last form of resistance I'll double down on my short.

Overall market sentiment I am bearish on eur/usd. Right now slightly bullish only because it just wants to keep going up.

Thank God for Hedging
Know when to hold em, Know when to fold em!
  • #217,665
  • Mar 29, 2010 2:54pm Mar 29, 2010 2:54pm
Quoting jsspmk
As you know I am not a fan of reversal plays, yet one can't ignore the fact that we are going into a holiday period (Easter), so volume will be thinner & with NDX showing medium-high overbought conditions a short-term reversal in stocks is quite likely, perhaps retracement to 20 average.
if talking about es ... that thing has been on rocket fuel since 1050 ... no mater what all bad news dipos have been bought. In fact today we close right under that 1170 area and close to HOD

I tried a couple of sells last week but after getting stopped out on both on perefect setups I am only buying dips as sachs bots are at work .

In regards to low volume week. If the pros are still bearish what better week to take it up 300 to 400 pip into 1.3750 underl ow vol ( about 4 days based on daily 14atr) and then sell heavy off there next week. Of course this is pure speculation , but so far today buy all dips has been working ok . Tomorrow is a new day , I would like to see some form of breakout 1.5000 if move is to continue .

I will post a chart of DX later , but something really odd is going on in weekly volumes .... on the 80 to 82 area they have been the highest ever in the history of dx and it is going no where fast.
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #217,666
  • Mar 29, 2010 2:58pm Mar 29, 2010 2:58pm
US equity markets closed Friday for Easter
  • #217,667
  • Mar 29, 2010 3:04pm Mar 29, 2010 3:04pm
Quoting jsspmk
Stock markets look heavy to me, USD index looks set to go to at least 84...EUR will most likely fall of a cliff if stocks go into substantial sell off. No Skyzer, I am not saying EUR will go to 0
He-he... 84? ok... Heck, I need some reset as well to build position
I've been just trading in and out lately.. Need low 1.34 or better to load up.
EU slowly moving to my Fair value which is 1.36, under today conditions..

Dollar is overvalued and Overbought, regardless of Fibs and Elliot Waves..
Viewer Discretion Advised: Shall we shag now or should we shag later? :-)
  • #217,668
  • Mar 29, 2010 3:08pm Mar 29, 2010 3:08pm
Good morning all

Well nothing much seemed to have happened over night (NZ time), although the Aussie is still creeping up. My 20/20 hindsight says I could have stayed in that long over night but never mind...the Aussie and the Kiwi were nice to me yesterday.

I'd like to short the eur and the gbp, but it's a bit soon to get into that at the moment....at least it is for me. Looks like there is some news in both of those currency sessions that might move this along so I get the feeling that this will be a day of waiting for me unless the Asian session can bring something useful to the party....Mind you, my boss will appreciate me actually doing some work rather than studying the charts for most of my day.....lol...
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #217,669
  • Mar 29, 2010 3:08pm Mar 29, 2010 3:08pm
I'm pissed.. Finally after testing many different strategies in Visual

mode on simulator and today after trading 6 pairs on Demo.. Made 157 pips

today in the first day of trading ( while Market was in action)..

Hopefully I'd able to make half of that or 1/3 on live account soon

(without playing with lot sizes and averaging)
Viewer Discretion Advised: Shall we shag now or should we shag later? :-)
  • #217,670
  • Mar 29, 2010 3:10pm Mar 29, 2010 3:10pm
Quoting malcolmb14

I will post a chart of DX later , but something really odd is going on in weekly volumes .... on the 80 to 82 area they have been the highest ever in the history of dx and it is going no where fast.
It's impossible to know what is going on with USD now. It could be that we are nearing the time of another sell off in stock markets in which case cash is king=USD is king. Or it could be expectation of interest rate increase or they could be planning a reset to the whole financial system. We will know when it happens.

"and it is going no where fast"that's why I class volume a 'double edged sword' as it could be this, could be that, especially so intraday. If you can extract edge from it, then Ok, but I prefer KISS.
Prices oscillate, trends persist. Trend is your friend.
  • #217,671
  • Mar 29, 2010 3:16pm Mar 29, 2010 3:16pm
Quoting SkyzerFX
I'm pissed.. Finally after testing many different strategies in Visual

mode on simulator and today after trading 6 pairs on Demo.. Made 157 pips

today in the first day of trading ( while Market was in action)..

Hopefully I'd able to make half of that or 1/3 on live account soon

(without playing with lot sizes and averaging)

haha yeah man that's the case with me too, i happen to achieve better profit in demo, but that's because it's demo, no psychology involved
"The Side that Knows When to Fight and When Not to, Will Take the Victory"
  • #217,672
  • Mar 29, 2010 3:18pm Mar 29, 2010 3:18pm
1.35 ultimate target not that fancy, just some pips for the day. I think I may add 1-2 lot there and 1 complete lot on 1.3550 SHORTING, just because of the trend but I see a change on the trend, i need the end of the week to see if thats going to be true
  • #217,673
  • Mar 29, 2010 3:20pm Mar 29, 2010 3:20pm
Quoting jsspmk
It's impossible to know what is going on with USD now.
Yes it's possible.. Let me guess, too many Fat Cats sitting on the same

side of the boat for too long.

Mid-high 1.35 then hopefully retest of low-mid 1.34, before heading for

top range of 1.38... I still have that chart made on Sunday, Looks on

target now..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu_mon_scenario.jpg Size: 77 KB
Viewer Discretion Advised: Shall we shag now or should we shag later? :-)
  • #217,674
  • Mar 29, 2010 3:24pm Mar 29, 2010 3:24pm
Quoting SkyzerFX
Yes it's possible.. Let me guess, too many Fat Cats setting on the same

side of the boat for too long.

Mid-high 1.35 then hopefully retest of low-mid 1.34, before heading for

top range of 1.38... I still have that chart made on Sunday, Looks on

target now..
And here is Johny!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: crystal_ball.jpg Size: 65 KB
Prices oscillate, trends persist. Trend is your friend.
  • #217,675
  • Mar 29, 2010 3:36pm Mar 29, 2010 3:36pm
Quoting jsspmk
And here is Johny!
Viewer Discretion Advised: Shall we shag now or should we shag later? :-)
  • #217,676
  • Mar 29, 2010 3:38pm Mar 29, 2010 3:38pm
Quoting SkyzerFX
Yes it's possible.. Let me guess, too many Fat Cats sitting on the same

side of the boat for too long.

Mid-high 1.35 then hopefully retest of low-mid 1.34, before heading for

top range of 1.38... I still have that chart made on Sunday, Looks on

target now..

Why you have done well today is because market is moving the way you preach .

Try doing the same thing on a day when the market is on a down day and going agianst all your fundamental beliefs that you post in here.
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #217,677
  • Mar 29, 2010 3:45pm Mar 29, 2010 3:45pm
Quoting malcolmb14
Why you have done well today is because market is moving the way you preach .
Try doing the same thing on a day when the market is on a down day and going agianst all your fundamental beliefs that you post in here.
Nahh, Malc, that was pure trading without any fundamentals...
Tomorrow I'll play it on real account.. Just load up templates.. Too late now
Nothing is going on and I need movement..

And I do expect EU to go back down, as I said.. Don't think thought, last
low would be tested near term (very tiny chance for that, but everything is possible)
Viewer Discretion Advised: Shall we shag now or should we shag later? :-)
  • #217,678
  • Mar 29, 2010 3:50pm Mar 29, 2010 3:50pm
Bought USDJPY (Target 92.70 +)

Watching AUDUSD for possible Sell.
Viewer Discretion Advised: Shall we shag now or should we shag later? :-)
  • #217,679
  • Mar 29, 2010 3:54pm Mar 29, 2010 3:54pm
I closed my shorts. Unless we make a new low under 3420, Several things are indicating a *bigger* upmove. There's also forming a 'clear' channel on my H1 charts as well as if the daily closes above 3485/90 we have a definite buy signal. I will then target 1.3750/80.
  • #217,680
  • Mar 29, 2010 3:59pm Mar 29, 2010 3:59pm
Quoting SkyzerFX
Yes it's possible.. Let me guess, too many Fat Cats sitting on the same

side of the boat for too long.

Mid-high 1.35 then hopefully retest of low-mid 1.34, before heading for

top range of 1.38... I still have that chart made on Sunday, Looks on

target now..
Sorry, I do not agree with you about 1.38. From my understanding, it is good retracement for euro, however, there is the risk that greece can not sell its bond. You seems too optimism
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