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  • #217,641
  • Mar 29, 2010 1:12pm Mar 29, 2010 1:12pm
Quoting uraceulose
Hey man, I'm curious. How do you decide whether or not to go with 3293? Instead of 3311? I c that we are @ ur 3440 area here for awhile and it got respect. I have a similar level thanks to those fib levels u showed me awhile back but mine is at 3290 to be exact. It's on that 1 hr chart that I posted yesterday before open(in lime green).

I just see that we respected R1 and your 3440 level so how do you decide which one it's heading for next?

I understand if it's too complicated to explain just ignore me if it is, no biggie.

Thanks for any advice,...
many would argue with me. i just have a different look at crap. what its supposed to do is textbook. but in texbook there some who dont fit the mold. i try to see what its doing and not what it is supposed to do. so i get right and wrong signals before the move. if i put a number out as long as its not a typo.. its what the actual live move is showing. but the live move still has to react to normal stuff such as fibs tl ect. and sometimes it trumps my crap. but pay attention to fibs or tl.. if incorporated with tl and fibs it increases odds.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #217,642
  • Mar 29, 2010 1:17pm Mar 29, 2010 1:17pm
Quoting 2+2=4ex
Hello Donnie. I don't see it today, but would not be surprised to see it tomorrow. I am out right now and I don't know if I will trade today, just too many things up in the air right now.
Hey man, hope all is well. I don't see it either but Malc is good with the volumes and the last couple volume bars I saw on 15M were narrow spread up bars when it looked like we were attempting to go down?

I'm currently flat on EU too but I was just stopped out for -20 pips. I do have another short pending waiting for today. If we do not convincingly head down today on longer tf chart. I will evaluate some longs when the new day starts depending on where we are in relation to the pp, daily S/R.

I personally am more trying to lean towards acumens method of fibs/s/r and then basically hoping to catch a runner one of these days that turns a little more long term again.
  • #217,643
  • Mar 29, 2010 1:18pm Mar 29, 2010 1:18pm
Quoting malcolmb14
I am seeing 1.3550 , maybe not today though .

US markets have been in a very tight range and ES has been capped by 1170.

14 period daily ATR eu right now is 107 , assuming that 1.3400 was our low of day that takes eu to 1.3507 , and actaul hod was 1.3505. Pretty damn neat and only something I thought about in depth about last week. So my take profit for day was set just under 1.3507 at 1.3500 on my long I mentioned ' low is in ' last night.

So before any sort of move north we need 1.3450 to hold and tomorrows atr to be 107 , taking us up...
Thanks Malc!
  • #217,644
  • Mar 29, 2010 1:25pm Mar 29, 2010 1:25pm
Quoting gatorinla
many would argue with me. i just have a different look at crap. what its supposed to do is textbook. but in texbook there some who dont fit the mold. i try to see what its doing and not what it is supposed to do. so i get right and wrong signals before the move. if i put a number out as long as its not a typo.. its what the actual live move is showing. but the live move still has to react to normal stuff such as fibs tl ect. and sometimes it trumps my crap. but pay attention to fibs or tl.. if incorporated with tl and fibs it increases odds.

Thank you so much Gator. I hope I didn't come across as arguing or questioning your reasoning. That was NOT my intention. I have great respect for you and many others on this forum. I just always watch for your posts and then try and get the same numbers on my chart on my own. I seem to get close now, it's just a matter of being patient enough to see which numbers are working and keeping my position size in check.(this is the tough part)
  • #217,645
  • Mar 29, 2010 1:33pm Mar 29, 2010 1:33pm
RIGHT NOW, IF YOU ARE NOT ON A LONG TERM TRADE, THE ONLY ACTION IS TO HOLD LONGS INTRADAY. THATS IT.
sell 1.35-1.355-1.36, i can read those numbers and im ok with it because everyone that is long right now against the trend is tp at 1.35-1.3520.
Why??..because traders now that is really sellcrowded in there and 1.3550.

So play safe, dont open transactions now, just hold your longs if you have them already from 1.3440 or lower than that. Sell your shorts (only short term trades) and resell at 1.35, 1.3550.
  • #217,646
  • Mar 29, 2010 1:38pm Mar 29, 2010 1:38pm
Quoting gatorinla
.... but pay attention to fibs or tl.. if incorporated with tl and fibs it increases odds.
This is what I have noticed: when there is confluence between tl, fibs, S/R, pivots, oscillators, etc. then the more likelihood of a "reaction". The more of these that create the confluence, the more likely there will be a reaction.
  • #217,647
  • Mar 29, 2010 1:47pm Mar 29, 2010 1:47pm
Quoting Azinvg
im watching lower tf, and trendlines on higher tf. Im watching and trading eurcad on long term, not eurusd
that move may be only 50% of the way.. right now on most pairs i plot verses euro including eurx .. 50% comes up often.. if this remains true. euro will lose at least 50% of current value (since 2008) on most pairs. the odds are more with commodity pairs. anyway we usauly go back to 50% mark many times before trend resumes.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #217,648
  • Mar 29, 2010 1:50pm Mar 29, 2010 1:50pm
Quoting gatorinla
that move may be only 50% of the way.. right now on most pairs i plot verses euro including eurx .. 50% comes up often.. if this remains true. euro will lose at least 50% of current value (since 2008) on most pairs. the odds are more with commodity pairs. anyway we usauly go back to 50% mark many times before trend resumes.
and yet people speculate that the bear rally is over lol gosh...

Gatorinla, im glad you're chart is with me! you're the best at this than anyone i know here...
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #217,649
  • Mar 29, 2010 1:59pm Mar 29, 2010 1:59pm
Quoting bguguen
and yet people speculate that the bear rally is over lol gosh...

Gatorinla, im glad you're chart is with me! you're the best at this than anyone i know here...
well even if im right.. there can be lots of drawdowns. so people on the right side of the trade can lose w/o proper m/m. 50% is pivotal to most. and its not written in stone. so protect yourself.

and even if euro goes lower it will make beamers cheaper. cheaper beamers may correct lower eu and pull it back up.. with supply verses demand.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #217,650
  • Mar 29, 2010 2:00pm Mar 29, 2010 2:00pm
Quoting Martingale
HAvE a LoOk to H4... wE aRe tEsTinG 0.382 FiBo

(where H=17.03 08am and L=25.03 08pm)

Exactly! And highest was just 11 pips below 50% FIBO - which is at 1.3543 (50%)


Tricky range play at the moment. So I think 1.3470 should cap for now - but at 1.3445 there will be some interest to cover short pos. at first. Hard to say here. But more pressure to the downside is needed - just to get the next goal / objectif / target - which is at around 1.3390 and 1.3365 levels - according to my kind of calculation.
2013-07-31 Today's Phrase of the Day: Hold off from any recycle bin experts
  • #217,651
  • Mar 29, 2010 2:05pm Mar 29, 2010 2:05pm
Quoting gatorinla
that move may be only 50% of the way.. right now on most pairs i plot verses euro including eurx .. 50% comes up often.. if this remains true. euro will lose at least 50% of current value (since 2008) on most pairs. the odds are more with commodity pairs. anyway we usauly go back to 50% mark many times before trend resumes.
im just closing 2 trades there (intraday trades) then ill hedge the other 4 positions, so I optimize my positions. Im aware that we have a bear trend there, but im thinking about a trend change on eurcad...on eurusd is just intraday transactions, im just looking 1.35. because im shorting (if nothing changes) from 1.3520, 1.3550, 1.36
  • #217,652
  • Mar 29, 2010 2:08pm Mar 29, 2010 2:08pm
Quoting uraceulose
Thank you so much Gator. I hope I didn't come across as arguing or questioning your reasoning. That was NOT my intention. I have great respect for you and many others on this forum. I just always watch for your posts and then try and get the same numbers on my chart on my own. I seem to get close now, it's just a matter of being patient enough to see which numbers are working and keeping my position size in check.(this is the tough part)
no man.. the thought didnt enter the brain
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #217,653
  • Mar 29, 2010 2:15pm Mar 29, 2010 2:15pm
Quoting tonyo524
Descending wedge on the 1 hour, A lot of consolidation on the 1 hour in the 3470ish area. I believe we wil revisit at least the 3480ish area before our final track down to 3150ish area.
push up, I spoke about earlier.
All that is left in FF is just plain garbage. "Cloggie"
  • #217,654
  • Mar 29, 2010 2:22pm Mar 29, 2010 2:22pm
Quoting tonyo524
push up, I spoke about earlier.
OMG omg, im getting really excited, if this push aint strong, we're going down...
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #217,655
  • Mar 29, 2010 2:24pm Mar 29, 2010 2:24pm
Stock markets look heavy to me, USD index looks set to go to at least 84...EUR will most likely fall of a cliff if stocks go into substantial sell off. No Skyzer, I am not saying EUR will go to 0
Prices oscillate, trends persist. Trend is your friend.
  • #217,656
  • Mar 29, 2010 2:32pm Mar 29, 2010 2:32pm
Quoting jsspmk
Stock markets look heavy to me, USD index looks set to go to at least 84...EUR will most likely fall of a cliff if stocks go into substantial sell off. No Skyzer, I am not saying EUR will go to 0

es still managed to hold that 1164 level all day . I think they might do a ifnal push just above 1200 ish before any selling occurs.

It will be interesting to see if the NFP news is good news on Friday and how the market reacts to that . I have been noticing some weakness in the last 2 weeks in the volumes and am looking for any signs of selling into good news to confirm this weakness. So far it has not happened and ES seems like it is on crack .

At the monent DX has a top reversal pattern on daily at 82 ish , although today is a down day on low volume indicating no real selling pressure. 80.80 is the level to watch IF we get back under that then could prove to be bearish for dx. This is the high of a few weeks back wehre we saw max volume on DX in its history. Since then we have had a movement of a massive 1.2 on 10 weeks. ... I would suggest that volume may be hidden sellers of DX , but again a weekly close under 80.80 and what would equate to a top reversal on a weekly may confirm that better.
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #217,657
  • Mar 29, 2010 2:33pm Mar 29, 2010 2:33pm
Was able to bag 15 pips from 1.3455 to 1.3470...like watching paint dry
  • #217,658
  • Mar 29, 2010 2:35pm Mar 29, 2010 2:35pm
it can t go up.. i suppose it will go down... will leave by shorts open
Andreyou
  • #217,659
  • Mar 29, 2010 2:36pm Mar 29, 2010 2:36pm
Quoting tonyo524
push up, I spoke about earlier.
3500 Maybe it will trigger, maybe I may have to jump in and trigger early. Asian session to London, and N.Y close tommorrow. Down, down, down.
All that is left in FF is just plain garbage. "Cloggie"
  • #217,660
  • Mar 29, 2010 2:41pm Mar 29, 2010 2:41pm
Quoting jsspmk
Stock markets look heavy to me, USD index looks set to go to at least 84...EUR will most likely fall of a cliff if stocks go into substantial sell off. No Skyzer, I am not saying EUR will go to 0


only a matter of time....this week will tell a lot.
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