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Sonic R. System

  • #11,361
  • Mar 26, 2010 8:55am Mar 26, 2010 8:55am
Quoting traderathome
For now, just the next whole number up.
EU:

Well, after all the news, price is oscillating/consolidating now about that whole number....
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  • #11,362
  • Edited 9:21am Mar 26, 2010 9:00am | Edited 9:21am
Quoting Domas4
For those who took USD/JPY trade:
It was a loosing trade for those, who had tigher stop loss (above
the recent high). Let's try to rationalize and find reasons why was that,
even though we know that we should "let the market decide!".

As Rastaman mentioned, it is a big counter trend trade. Since it broke
the huge resistance a few days ago, I think now the price has huge support.
This can be seen clearly on the Daily chart - the price is already above the resistance.

[b]Like ddaytrader once said - "if you trade counter-trend, look for bigger...
And.....this might be a good time to drag out that weekly chart for a reminder. If this is in the works, then a lot more consolidation can be expected, here and there. The Big Dogs are not going to blow a good run up without adequately loading up for it first. Warning: speculation!
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  • #11,363
  • Mar 26, 2010 9:09am Mar 26, 2010 9:09am
GU:

Entered this long, like I did EU. Have placed target at 3/4 number approximating it's average range. The way things are going, it won't make it today/this week. So, I will be faced with making decision to fold or hold before close. Same with EU.
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  • #11,364
  • Mar 26, 2010 9:20am Mar 26, 2010 9:20am
Quoting traderathome
And.....this might be a good time to drag out that weekly chart for a reminder of.....
.... of * & *. I totally agree traderathome. Whatever helps to determine S&R and not forget them.
cut losses short, let profits run.
  • #11,365
  • Mar 26, 2010 9:27am Mar 26, 2010 9:27am
Quoting Domas4
EU Setup triggered. TP is far away.
EU: Closing half of the position at the profit of 57 pips. SL @ BE and let the
profits run.
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cut losses short, let profits run.
  • #11,366
  • Mar 26, 2010 10:05am Mar 26, 2010 10:05am
EU:

My next targets on this are the next higher half number and then the next higher whole number at 1.3500. I am managing GU in the same manner.

Both are in strong pullbacks now. And there is FOMC acitivity coming up at 4pm EST, essentially at the close of the market for many. So anything can happen short term. But, on the basis of all the news so far, and that thru it all these two put in bases off of which there are higher highs and lows, I am predisposed to hold over weekend.
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  • #11,367
  • Mar 26, 2010 10:17am Mar 26, 2010 10:17am
GU:

I just noticed this on the Monthly chart. The current strong intraday pullback down to this level, at a time when no powerful trading outfits seem to be contesting this drawdown, may be a sign that most of them see this as a desirable level to consolidate at for a trend reversal move....one that may start next week. Or, per second chart, it could go lower, to the area of an "outer" lower TL, before changing direction. Next week will be interesting because PA next week might give us a sense of whether or not a trend reversal is starting.
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  • #11,368
  • Edited 11:38am Mar 26, 2010 10:37am | Edited 11:38am
Thoughts on EU, GU and UJ:

As with GU, EU is, in a sense, also at a crossroads. For both of them, a number of months now of "dollar strength" may be finished. But, also possibly not. They both may have yet another leg down.

The fly in the ointment is the Weekly chart on UJ, which shows the possibility of the price moving up. Is possible for this to occur, indicating "dollar strength" against the yen, while the EU/GU pairs reverse upwards, indicating "dollar weakness" against the euro and pound? If not, then if UJ moves up EU and GU may continue down. And if EU/GU do turn up, then UJ may stall out of the inverted H&S pattern and fall back down.

In any case no matter which way this all goes, we are talking net moves over a long timeframe of less than 1,000 pips. So either way, there is the possibility of lots of ups and downs for the Big Dogs to make their money......and opportunities for good SonicR trades in both directions for us!

Conclusion: So, all of this blah, blah, blah on EU, GU and UJ was just a waste of time........ : )
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  • #11,369
  • Edited 12:50pm Mar 26, 2010 12:25pm | Edited 12:50pm
EU and GU Trades:

The way these look, I am going to hold over weekend.

Those of you with platforms that stay on-line after 4pm EST, for the last hour of the market, may see market reaction to FOMC speach. My FXDD plattform closes down an hour early, so I will miss it.
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  • #11,370
  • Mar 26, 2010 9:27pm Mar 26, 2010 9:27pm
Yeah, UJ was wishful thinking & a major oversight. Goes to show just because we have a large move one day, it doesn't mean we are going to get the same movement the next day.

DooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooH
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Starting to see instead of just looking.
  • #11,371
  • Mar 27, 2010 12:48am Mar 27, 2010 12:48am
Quoting Rastaman
Yeah, UJ was wishful thinking & a major oversight. Goes to show just because we have a large move one day, it doesn't mean we are going to get the same movement the next day.

DooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooH
The durned thing was flatlined for almost two full weeks! Then, in one day it move almost 3x its range! Then, the following day also it made a move larger than any day during the preceding two full weeks!
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  • #11,372
  • Mar 27, 2010 1:11am Mar 27, 2010 1:11am
Quoting traderathome
The durned thing was flatlined for almost two full weeks! Then, in one day it move almost 3x its range! Then, the following day also it made a move larger than any day during the preceding two full weeks!


Yes, T.

Zooming is often more valuable than zooming in.
Starting to see instead of just looking.
  • #11,373
  • Mar 28, 2010 3:07am Mar 28, 2010 3:07am
Hmmmm, EUR/GBP looks interesting.
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Starting to see instead of just looking.
  • #11,374
  • Mar 28, 2010 12:20pm Mar 28, 2010 12:20pm
Quoting Rastaman
Hmmmm, EUR/GBP looks interesting.
Since you pointed it out, I have been looking at it. The M15 has that "uplifiting" feel about it, yes. And your Weekly chart does nothing to dispel that feel. However, look at the Monthly chart. Last week closed with a price almost exactly at the high some 15 years back. Indeed, recent years has favored the euro. But it seems price has struggled around the FR 24% level on the Monthly chart. And the gap up for March seems suspicious, especially since the price is now just about where it started the month...... seems suspicious and terribly bearish.

But we trade off the H4 and M15, which does have that "uplifiting" appearance. And, we trade what the PA does, not what we think it should do. Taking all this into account, it could go either way. And whether or not it begins a new trend down any time soon, there will always be SonicR trades in both directions. Right?
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  • #11,375
  • Mar 28, 2010 12:55pm Mar 28, 2010 12:55pm
Nice stuff... thanks for sharing.
  • #11,376
  • Edited 11:36pm Mar 28, 2010 11:07pm | Edited 11:36pm
EU and GU:

Both flirting with breakouts up.... I wonder if the purpose of the gap ups in these two, and the following strong run down, was to disssuade any that were long from keeping their positions......so the outfit(s) that manipulated this gap up and move down, could take those long positions when the traders gave them up? Same for enticing traders to go short, while the outfit(s) took the long side of the new shorts?
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  • #11,377
  • Mar 28, 2010 11:24pm Mar 28, 2010 11:24pm
Hello everyone. I'm a long time lurker of this thread and wanted to share a setup and learn from everyone. I usually don't pay much attention to indicators and follow price action only. Not feeling good about this setup, might develop as a bullish flag but you can never know
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  • #11,378
  • Mar 28, 2010 11:33pm Mar 28, 2010 11:33pm
Nice find T.

Yeah, it was pushing the triple tops at 1.4925.

TAH Always, on the Ball.
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Starting to see instead of just looking.
  • #11,379
  • Mar 28, 2010 11:43pm Mar 28, 2010 11:43pm
My EU and GU Targets For This Session:

Concentrating on whole and half numbers.....
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  • #11,380
  • Mar 29, 2010 12:00am Mar 29, 2010 12:00am
Quoting comapip
Hello everyone. I'm a long time lurker of this thread and wanted to share a setup and learn from everyone. I usually don't pay much attention to indicators and follow price action only. Not feeling good about this setup, might develop as a bullish flag but you can never know
Welcome.


I am not surprised you are not feeling good about that setup because, there is no setup there. Price is above the dragon and has not produced a lower high or lower low about the dragon.

It is good that you posted it though, and keep posting.
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Starting to see instead of just looking.
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