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  • #217,261
  • Mar 28, 2010 7:49pm Mar 28, 2010 7:49pm
Quoting uraceulose
gotta chart? I'm only asking because I don't c you post many and would like to see ur down trend
There used to be a good section on CBOT how to read trends, maybe I can find it for you. If you look at weekly chart without any fireworks on it where would you see end of down trend?
Prices oscillate, trends persist. Trend is your friend.
  • #217,262
  • Mar 28, 2010 7:51pm Mar 28, 2010 7:51pm
off course.... we go up forever....



OMG some b%$lshit....
Let us be green
  • #217,263
  • Mar 28, 2010 7:52pm Mar 28, 2010 7:52pm
Uptrends??!?! For God !!! Guys what you see is just a retrace after de 4 days go down. We get retrace to fib 38,2 with this GAP UP and now we probabily go down AGAIN (see 4h Charts). What's the doubt??
"Por mais fundo que seja o buraco, pelo menos esse não tem terra em cima"
  • #217,264
  • Mar 28, 2010 7:53pm Mar 28, 2010 7:53pm
Quoting TheLastCoke
Well, Depends #411

Where are your targets and why?
and here go again!


CHF

PLEASE POST MY POST XD
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  • #217,265
  • Mar 28, 2010 7:59pm Mar 28, 2010 7:59pm
I'm enjoying the view on a chart that spans 3 years. Until the trend bends, the Death Cross is still in effect. In case it has really bent, for that I'll set SAR's in the +/- 1.37 area, something like that would be pretty obvious.

Take a break. No need to stare at the 1-minute charts
  • #217,266
  • Mar 28, 2010 8:05pm Mar 28, 2010 8:05pm
Downtrend


http://i.investopedia.com/inv/092009.../book_icon.jpg
What Does Downtrend Mean?
Describes the price movement of a financial asset when the overall direction is downward. A formal downtrend occurs when each successive peak and trough is lower than the ones found earlier in the trend.

http://i.investopedia.com/inv/dictio.../downtrend.GIF

Notice how each successive peak and trough is lower than the previous one. For example, the low at Point 3 is lower than the low at Point 1. The downtrend will be deemed broken once the price closes above the high at Point 4.

Ok, above is very basic, but that is the core of trend reading. People can call bottoms all they like, but I ask why bother if you can be more patient & wait for a trend change & then load up longs because then it will be safer as you will have a new trend on your side.
Prices oscillate, trends persist. Trend is your friend.
  • #217,267
  • Mar 28, 2010 8:07pm Mar 28, 2010 8:07pm
http://ads.forbes.com/RealMedia/ads/...=IP_contentTaghttp://i.investopedia.com/inv/092009...y/inv_icon.jpg
Investopedia explains Trend
As a general strategy, it is best to trade with trends, meaning that if the general trend of the market is headed up, you should be very cautious about taking any positions that rely on the trend going in the opposite direction.
Prices oscillate, trends persist. Trend is your friend.
  • #217,268
  • Mar 28, 2010 8:13pm Mar 28, 2010 8:13pm
This retrace went up to quick to hold for any real time as can be seen in the 4hr charts. This was a discount sale and I sold some on that move up. Look at the 4hr rejection off that 38.2% retrace (The weekly 61.8% breakout from last week is there also).

I was planning on selling all the way up to the 61.8% if it goes that far but only time will tell us that.

Funny how everyone is calling a bottom when the retrace hasn't even closed above the 38.2% Fib... I don't have it on my chart but it also retested that weekly 61.8% that it spent the last 4 weeks trying to break (which it finally did last week).

Have fun this week guys!!!


EDIT: Only time will tell but this just simply looks like a retest of that 61.8% Fib breakout from last week. Classic break and re-test.
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  • #217,269
  • Mar 28, 2010 8:19pm Mar 28, 2010 8:19pm
[quote=gatorinla;3591132]
Quoting gatorinla
now we see if 3429 + slip... is in the cards.. this will tell whos pulling the strings..
ok... lets see how much slippage.. maybe till 20.. then back up... before trend resumption lower.. whats the cap?... maybe 47... but 29 should be a st s/r... bears are here and well..pulling the strings..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #217,270
  • Mar 28, 2010 8:22pm Mar 28, 2010 8:22pm
Filled the gap......back up from here ?

Never mind......It was just this platform showing a gap....
  • #217,271
  • Mar 28, 2010 8:23pm Mar 28, 2010 8:23pm
i know u trade usd cad, so what do you think about this, i took a long on the candle set up.similiar set up occured few weeks back, shown on the chart and showed some upside. any thoughs?
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  • #217,272
  • Mar 28, 2010 8:25pm Mar 28, 2010 8:25pm
Here is a very basic recipe of how to make consistent returns.

Pick a highly liquid instrument (preferably a commodity) & observe its weekly trend develop. Don't do anything until a weekly trend is clearly broken as on the previous picture. Then wait for a retracement & keep an eye on a weakening price action on lower time frame (Daily/8 hour chart) if uptrend has been broken or a strengthening price action if a down trend has been broken. Oscillators help see when price action is weakening & strengthening. Keep position on until weekly trend has finished.
Prices oscillate, trends persist. Trend is your friend.
  • #217,273
  • Mar 28, 2010 8:29pm Mar 28, 2010 8:29pm
I'm looking to buy if goes down to 1.3400 & i also get confirmation from my indicators. Right now i think this has a chance to go back to the 1.3480 area. So i want to buy at the lowest point i can. If it keeps going down past 1.3400 i will let it go.
  • #217,274
  • Mar 28, 2010 8:37pm Mar 28, 2010 8:37pm
Quoting ledobedo
i know u trade usd cad, so what do you think about this, i took a long on the candle set up.similiar set up occured few weeks back, shown on the chart and showed some upside. any thoughs?
its a commodity pair..u.s. stocks and usd can go up hand in hand..as stocks go up normaly so will commodities.. but if usd goes up at the same time it will drive down commodities. so would you rather bet on a three-some or two-some.. either way oil is below 82 so the ship has sailed until oil spikes again. cad and u.s. have mostly the same markets except cad is geared more toward commdities. if eu is a sweet short then a commodity based pair such as the cad r aud r kiwi r one of the kronas is at a blue light special atm against euro..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #217,275
  • Mar 28, 2010 8:47pm Mar 28, 2010 8:47pm
Quoting jsspmk
I vote gap to close, just for fun.
Done.

Statistically speaking upgaps are likely to be closed during a down trend, on the other hand downgaps that happen during downtrends are not so likely to be closed.
Prices oscillate, trends persist. Trend is your friend.
  • #217,276
  • Mar 28, 2010 8:53pm Mar 28, 2010 8:53pm
Quoting gatorinla
its a commodity pair..u.s. stocks and usd can go up hand in hand..as stocks go up normaly so will commodities.. but if usd goes up at the same time it will drive down commodities. so would you rather bet on a three-some or two-some.. either way oil is below 82 so the ship has sailed until oil spikes again. cad and u.s. have mostly the same markets except cad is geared more toward commdities. if eu is a sweet short then a commodity based pair such as the cad r aud r kiwi r one of the kronas is at a blue light special atm against euro..
okkk...sl 50 and tp 200 nonetheless..plan the trade trade the plan righthaha..i m basically long on usd across three pairs..but realistic tps on the others, much more short term..what u think bout this eu chart..i trade a little elliot and one of my counts looks like this.
the count suggest 5th wave, 1st and 3 equal of bout 1000 pips give or take..targets of 1.26-1.28. this plays in my master plan red trendline which if my interpretation is right would see a turn. most of people talking longs here so just another view
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  • #217,277
  • Mar 28, 2010 8:57pm Mar 28, 2010 8:57pm
It looks like we have enough momentum to get to 1.3390
  • #217,278
  • Mar 28, 2010 8:58pm Mar 28, 2010 8:58pm
Let's see what happens if it hits the lower tl. My guess is bear will go through.


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  • #217,279
  • Mar 28, 2010 8:58pm Mar 28, 2010 8:58pm
Quoting ferndog
I'm looking to buy if goes down to 1.3400 & i also get confirmation from my indicators. Right now i think this has a chance to go back to the 1.3480 area. So i want to buy at the lowest point i can. If it keeps going down past 1.3400 i will let it go.
good cox i would want to sell at 3480, missed my trade. juz woke up man.


whether its up/down hard to say, have to let it range for a while
and see how the range market is behaving

if it safely broke this 35, my next short quite far up

maybe around 36+
  • #217,280
  • Mar 28, 2010 9:23pm Mar 28, 2010 9:23pm
[quote=gatorinla;3591352]
Quoting gatorinla
ok... lets see how much slippage.. maybe till 20.. then back up... before trend resumption lower.. whats the cap?... maybe 47... but 29 should be a st s/r... bears are here and well..pulling the strings..
3439 + slip would be the target.. so maybe 3447 will cap it.. st

if so second bear target is 3340 +s then 3311 then 3285 then 3239 then 3175.. all +s.. all if respected will be sy s/r... a free fall may miss them.. void with high above 3494.

not getting to 3439 and going below 3418 is a strong bear signal st..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
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