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Attachments: 0400-0700 GMT Breakout Strategy
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0400-0700 GMT Breakout Strategy

  • #2,841
  • Mar 27, 2010 9:20am Mar 27, 2010 9:20am
Hi Everyone
Just to see what you guys think of trading a system where you use the 7AM UK time bar as your high low and use the UK open to trade off that. I've gone back about 6 months and it seems to work very well. As I'm new to forex I'm a little unsure if I've back tested correctly. What I do is demo trade between 8-12 UK time to take 20 pips or sooner if I get 20 pips in first hour. I feel there is more to gain but not sure if to put trailing stops in or let the trade to TP. I would appreciate any advice from more experience traders that my help. Out of 97 trades I've seen 4 lossing days of 20 pips SL and 3 non trade days. Thanks

Regards

Gary A
  • #2,842
  • Mar 28, 2010 4:48am Mar 28, 2010 4:48am
Quoting Gary A
Hi Everyone
Just to see what you guys think of trading a system where you use the 7AM UK time bar as your high low and use the UK open to trade off that. I've gone back about 6 months and it seems to work very well. As I'm new to forex I'm a little unsure if I've back tested correctly. What I do is demo trade between 8-12 UK time to take 20 pips or sooner if I get 20 pips in first hour. I feel there is more to gain but not sure if to put trailing stops in or let the trade to TP. I would appreciate any advice from more experience traders that my...
Gary

If you are getting regular daily profits of 20 pips then don't fix what isn't broke. With good money management you will be very wealthy in no time at all. Don't get greedy looking for more pips, its not the pips, its the money management that will make you the money.

WildWood
  • #2,843
  • Mar 28, 2010 4:50am Mar 28, 2010 4:50am
Quoting maq
any update on 2009 results please
Maq

Sorry just not had time yet to get detailed 2009 results.

WildWood
  • #2,844
  • Mar 28, 2010 11:48am Mar 28, 2010 11:48am
Hi Gary A
Can you advise which time frame you use for the 7am bar and do you put a margin above/below your buy/sell orders to confirm direction. Your results sound very good.
  • #2,845
  • Mar 28, 2010 1:54pm Mar 28, 2010 1:54pm
HiWildwood

Thanks for you reply. I use a round 3% of what I would trade with when I go live, but this is the big question of when to go live. Any advice of when you should pull the pin and trust what you have done with the demo account. I've gone back a round 6 months of data but feel I should also forward test or is that enough info to trust what I'm doing.

Regards

Gary A
  • #2,846
  • Mar 28, 2010 2:46pm Mar 28, 2010 2:46pm
Quoting Derek22
Hi Gary A
Can you advise which time frame you use for the 7am bar and do you put a margin above/below your buy/sell orders to confirm direction. Your results sound very good.

Hi Derek22
What I do is trade off the high low of the bar. Friaday would have been a loss off the low of the bar, But a return of a round 10 pips on the up side. The the trade Monday to thursday worked very well. I'm tring to work out if to use a bigger SL as I use 20 pips. If this was a round 25-30 this would of not been a loss. As I say I'm new to this and tring to work out the best way to aviod losses which will happen and to see if a bigger SL is the way to go. Any more advice would a appericated.

Regards

Gary A
  • #2,847
  • Mar 29, 2010 9:19am Mar 29, 2010 9:19am
Quoting Gary A
Hi Everyone
Just to see what you guys think of trading a system where you use the 7AM UK time bar as your high low and use the UK open to trade off that. I've gone back about 6 months and it seems to work very well. As I'm new to forex I'm a little unsure if I've back tested correctly. What I do is demo trade between 8-12 UK time to take 20 pips or sooner if I get 20 pips in first hour. I feel there is more to gain but not sure if to put trailing stops in or let the trade to TP. I would appreciate any advice from more experience traders that my...
Hi Gary.

Just to see if I understand this correctly.

Use 7:00 till 7:15 UK time as high and low.

After 8:00 UK tine (London open), buy at high with 20 stop loss and 20 take profit, or sell at low with 20 take profit and 20 stop loss.

  • #2,848
  • Mar 29, 2010 1:45pm Mar 29, 2010 1:45pm
Hi matlobien

I trade the 1 hour chart so I use the 7-8am bar and then trade high low of that bar. So today high 1.5013 low 1.4953 the brake to the upside would of been a loss. The 11-12 am trade would of got back the loss but the 10-11 am trade would of been a small loss so down today about 10 pips.
Hope that helps

Regards

Gary A
  • #2,849
  • Mar 29, 2010 3:39pm Mar 29, 2010 3:39pm
So people use this strat with CCI mostly now? I haven't backtested it much, but i'll get to it soon enough, although it looks very promising.
  • #2,850
  • Mar 29, 2010 4:51pm Mar 29, 2010 4:51pm
Hi Gary,

Your 7am bar sounds good. If it's working, stick with it. You asked for advise, but on the results you have posted it appears you do not need any. However, you pose an interesting question that has troubled me as well.

Should you take 20 pips and walk away, or place a trailing stop and let it run for less winning trades, but some big wins?

Using a different system than this thread, I also try and catch the London open. I like to take 20 pips and walk away. However, sometimes there is a momentum stick and it runs 100+ pips.

This is what I found. When I let it run, it would reverse, I'd get stopped and I would kick myself. When I take 20 pips it would run take off and I would kick myself!

Problem.... inconsistency.

So, both ways will work, but being constistent is a the most "emotionally sound" approach.

If you do want to look at ideas on a trailing stop, look at what the DIBS thread does to lock in their trades at BE and let the trade run with a trailing stop. I think their approach is as good as any and has stood the test of time.

If you want to get a little more strategic/fancy, Mark Fisher has a system called ACD. I do not use it, but its interesting none the less. It does explain how to determine if the opening break out is likely to stick or reverse. I do like the concept. I have watched the london open and can verify that the "concept" is sound. I do not bother with the ACD levels, but if price rallies and "sticks" at a level without retracing, it will generally take off again in that direction, then you can try your trail. It also fits in with other studies on opening range breakouts and the fact that on large range up days, price rarely dips much below the open, and on large range dn days, price rarely rise much above the open. Its and important concept.

To know more on ACD, google the name of Mark's book (in PDF). There are copies floating around the web where someone has scanned in the entire book, or you purchase it.

From an advise and ideas point of view, I hope that provides something you may wish to look into further.

Cheers.
  • #2,851
  • Mar 29, 2010 6:33pm Mar 29, 2010 6:33pm
was monday a winner for grants breakout

well looks like it was to me or am i missing something as theirs no comments regarding it
"The person who knows that enough is enough, will always have enough". .
  • #2,852
  • Mar 30, 2010 2:00am Mar 30, 2010 2:00am
Grant/WildWood

Can you confirm what time frame your actually working now with the clock changes please.

Is it still 0400-0600 GMT (ie 0500-0700 BST) or should we now be using 0300-0500 GMT (0400-0600 BST)

Many thanks.
  • #2,853
  • Mar 30, 2010 2:22am Mar 30, 2010 2:22am
Quoting maq
was monday a winner for grants breakout

well looks like it was to me or am i missing something as theirs no comments regarding it

EMA was in box yesterday for me, and I got stopped out by a couple of pips today! :| anyone else get the same as me?

Entry 1.5011
SL 1.4996

My low was 1.4996 haha!
  • #2,854
  • Mar 30, 2010 3:45am Mar 30, 2010 3:45am
yesterday try to trade on GU with this breakout strategy:
http://i40.tinypic.com/wvsaat.png
+70pips

today:
http://i39.tinypic.com/2h8ahpg.png
+70pips

thanks for share this great trading system...
  • #2,855
  • Mar 30, 2010 4:33am Mar 30, 2010 4:33am
Quoting Gary A
Hi matlobien

I trade the 1 hour chart so I use the 7-8am bar and then trade high low of that bar. So today high 1.5013 low 1.4953 the brake to the upside would of been a loss. The 11-12 am trade would of got back the loss but the 10-11 am trade would of been a small loss so down today about 10 pips.
Hope that helps

Regards

Gary A
Sorry Gary, but I am totally lost here.

London is currently on GMT+1, so my high + low would have been 1.4971 and1.4931. With the first bar after that you would have made your 20 pips.

This morning the 7 to 8 bar did not break and I then took the high + low of the 8 to 9 bar and got my 20 pips.

The second part I don't fully understand is if you took the High + low yesterday as 1.5013 and 1.4953 and made a loss on the first breakout, how did you recover the 20 pips as you said, as 1.5013 and 1.4953 was never broken again for the whole day ? Or do you then take each new 1 hour bar high and low as breakout lines ?

  • #2,856
  • Mar 30, 2010 5:13am Mar 30, 2010 5:13am
Quoting ruraltrader
Grant/WildWood

Can you confirm what time frame your actually working now with the clock changes please.

Is it still 0400-0600 GMT (ie 0500-0700 BST) or should we now be using 0300-0500 GMT (0400-0600 BST)

Many thanks.
I'm using 4-6 am UK year round which is now 3-5am gmt

cheers

Grant
  • #2,857
  • Mar 30, 2010 5:14am Mar 30, 2010 5:14am
Quoting maq
was monday a winner for grants breakout

well looks like it was to me or am i missing something as theirs no comments regarding it

maq,

winners today and yesterday

cheers

Grant
  • #2,858
  • Mar 30, 2010 5:18am Mar 30, 2010 5:18am
Quoting wawarulez
EMA was in box yesterday for me, and I got stopped out by a couple of pips today! :| anyone else get the same as me?

Entry 1.5011
SL 1.4996

My low was 1.4996 haha!

i hate it when that happens...

i had 1.5010 so survivd for the win today
yesteday alapri didnt have the ema in the box so it was a trade (winner)...



cheers

Grant
  • #2,859
  • Mar 30, 2010 9:55am Mar 30, 2010 9:55am
Quoting grant18265
i hate it when that happens...

i had 1.5010 so survivd for the win today
yesteday alapri didnt have the ema in the box so it was a trade (winner)...



cheers

Grant

damn. mayb i should open another account on a different broker to compare.
  • #2,860
  • Mar 30, 2010 10:56am Mar 30, 2010 10:56am
Grants strategy is back and it's not taking any shit!!!!

Ensure your in on the ride boys and girls..................
Trade the price action, not the cash!!!
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