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  • #217,061
  • Mar 27, 2010 10:07am Mar 27, 2010 10:07am
Quoting SkyzerFX
2 Views I have

a) EU goes up a bit hit and retrace back down... 1) That's too simple..

2) I don't see any reason test that extreme dump lows, just was panic selling

and bunch of Stop loss chasing, including Goldman..

..

For the sake of seeing Goldman Sac's reaction when the price goes up to whatever price they "buy" from before dumping..... priceless.....
loss 100k in Forex, up 1k, still have 99% to go!!
  • #217,062
  • Mar 27, 2010 10:10am Mar 27, 2010 10:10am
Quoting No 1 Voodoo
do u expect the price to fall down again from where it is now at 1.3400 ? to 1300 ?can some one give any opinion ?
Only an opinion - it goes down to 1.32 in the next days
  • #217,063
  • Mar 27, 2010 10:58am Mar 27, 2010 10:58am
I think it is always better to have some big picture, although usually our account does not allow us to do that. It would go down. Think about it. They did not solve any problem. It looks like the Doctor(Germany French) just "gladly " told the patient (Greece) that if you are really dieing, we will do surgery(bailout), but they may not do that. The patient still suffers the pain right now. There is nothing really resolved........
  • #217,064
  • Mar 27, 2010 11:13am Mar 27, 2010 11:13am
Quoting fontu
Not understand whats the point , do you think the the last wave down has been completed ,wave 5? zoom it in line chart to see .
thanks
Technicals must be applied with some common sense as well.

about couple of month ago In the Silver thread guy was urging with me

and showing charts that Silver going to $8/oz period, how about think a little..?

Do you understand under what circumstances EU pair drop below 1.33?

Complete panic selling.. If we hold above 1.34 2 days that be over for shorts.

Because I don't see any reason why would EUR drop now.. IMF set the rules,

so they now can print money same way as US does for countries in need.

Interesting like people drawing chart and see base Trend line at 1.30 saying

it should go there? Well, it shouldn't because Charts follow the price action

and not vise versa. Monday if EUR up and holding load up longs and ride to

to 1.38. Extreme selling overdone.
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  • #217,065
  • Mar 27, 2010 11:35am Mar 27, 2010 11:35am
I have not been posting here as mostly playing gu

BUT here is what I have been waiting for on eu .

1) shake out under 1.3450 support
2) high volume on down bar on daily 1.3250 resulting in up move off that level and morning star doji formation on daily
3) long will be London Monday for test 1.3500. If we get a daily close above 1.3450 on average volume then pretty good chance , now that eu conference is done , that we see stability return to eurozone and eu moves back to top of major range 1.3650

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu daily.jpg Size: 251 KB
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  • #217,066
  • Mar 27, 2010 12:00pm Mar 27, 2010 12:00pm
Quoting shewenhao
I think it is always better to have some big picture, although usually our account does not allow us to do that. It would go down. Think about it. They did not solve any problem. It looks like the Doctor(Germany French) just "gladly " told the patient (Greece) that if you are really dieing, we will do surgery(bailout), but they may not do that. The patient still suffers the pain right now. There is nothing really resolved........
One of the heads at UBS has said in an interview with Bloomberg that Greece will still default, as they will not be able to maintain their debt, he thinks Eurozone is just trying to ensure a 'soft landing' by not letting Greece default now. Most analysts give projections of mid to high 1.2s

I see previous support now serving as resistance mid 1.34s Current resolution was not aimed at stopping the Euro down trend, but to stabilize bond markets. IMO Euro will continue sliding into 1.3
Prices oscillate, trends persist. Trend is your friend.
  • #217,067
  • Mar 27, 2010 12:08pm Mar 27, 2010 12:08pm
Quoting SkyzerFX
Technicals must be applied with some common sense as well.

about couple of month ago In the Silver thread guy was urging with me

and showing charts that Silver going to $8/oz period, how about think a little..?

Do you understand under what circumstances EU pair drop below 1.33?

Complete panic selling.. If we hold above 1.34 2 days that be over for shorts.

Because I don't see any reason why would EUR drop now.. IMF set the rules,

so they now can print money same way as US does for countries in need.

Interesting like people drawing chart and...
  • #217,068
  • Mar 27, 2010 12:28pm Mar 27, 2010 12:28pm
Quoting jsspmk
One of the heads at UBS has said in an interview with Bloomberg that Greece will still default, as they will not be able to maintain their debt, he thinks Eurozone is just trying to ensure a 'soft landing' by not letting Greece default now. Most analysts give projections of mid to high 1.2s

I see previous support now serving as resistance mid 1.34s Current resolution was not aimed at stopping the Euro down trend, but to stabilize bond markets. IMO Euro will continue sliding into 1.3
a test of 1.3500 will be very bearish if it fails.
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #217,069
  • Mar 27, 2010 1:41pm Mar 27, 2010 1:41pm
Quoting Azinvg
SOME OF YOU GUYS WIRTE HERE ABOUT EURCAD, THERE IS A NEW THREAD.

HELLO GUYS IM THINKING THIS COULD BE A GREAT OPPORTUNITY TO DISCUSS EURCAD AND THE GREAT OPPORTUNITY OF A LONG TERM TRADE.

LOOK AT THE CHART YOU CAN EASILY SEE MAIN TREND (AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A RETRACEMENT IF WE PASSED THE ORANGE TREND). Also, I believe swiss gov. wont let this go that far. This week movement could be a gov. transaction.

I ALREADY HAVE SOME TRANSACTIONS OPEN AS YOU CAN SEE ON MY ACCOUNT:

avg 1.3650.

Im hedging, so I optimize this long term trade, because we...
Right now Im seeing more clearly the opportunity to consolidate this price here between 1.3660 1.3760 (eurcad) and break the channel above. CAD is getting bullish by now and just waiting the last wave we can go easily on 1.04. EURUSD has one last opportunity to go 1.30 if it doesnt go below 1.32 we are done bearing it.
  • #217,070
  • Edited 2:03pm Mar 27, 2010 1:41pm | Edited 2:03pm
Quoting SkyzerFX
Technicals must be applied with some common sense as well.

about couple of month ago In the Silver thread guy was urging with me

and showing charts that Silver going to $8/oz period, how about think a little..?

Do you understand under what circumstances EU pair drop below 1.33?

Complete panic selling.. If we hold above 1.34 2 days that be over for shorts.

Because I don't see any reason why would EUR drop now.. IMF set the rules,

so they now can print money same way as US does for countries in need.

Interesting like people drawing chart...
Thanks for comments , yes anything can possible in forex. lets see what next. If any opposite analysis , I welcome & quickly adjust to the new. so let it happen first.to me eu may go to the previous low & down next 2 trading days followed by sideways within ranges .

I just asked if the 5 th wave is over or not , that's all. if the price go over 1.3462 then it can be assumed over , in lower tf explanation can be possible to.

Greece drama ,whatever solution involves ,nothing is good for eu to me .
fontu
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #217,071
  • Mar 27, 2010 1:51pm Mar 27, 2010 1:51pm
eur vs. usdchf
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Click to Enlarge Name: CHF.H4.jpg Size: 228 KB
  • #217,072
  • Edited 2:20pm Mar 27, 2010 2:02pm | Edited 2:20pm
Quoting sum_1
eur vs. usdchf

Exactly Dollar at 1.06 to Swiss Frank (pair cannot break 1.09 for more than a month now sliding to the

lowest uptrend TL which going to be broken any day now), how about that? And going down not up

... Check USDCAD, AUDUSD, USDCHF. all near 2007 (dollar low levels)..

And EUR to all those currencies is at All time record low.. Correction

coming. What I'm trying to say is that we trade in 1.35-1.38 zone for quite

sometime 1.5-2 month while Greece problem was exists and Middle line is

$1.36 - that's the FAIR value of the EU right now, including Existing problems.

Drop to below 1.33 was extreme selling (jerk knee reaction), while investors wasn't sure, if Greece will be

provide any financial support at all, either from IMF or Germany... Mechanism

to barrow money from IMF in critical situations in EUROPE is now in place.

No more collapse BS on the horizon, as Greece will be offer Loan if necessary.

We should at least comeback to fair valuation of 1.36, or as you know, when

something so oversold it could easy chase current high over 1.38.. So if EUR

some what stable in the next 2 days, time to load up longs..

Dollar is overbought by all means.
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  • #217,073
  • Mar 27, 2010 2:11pm Mar 27, 2010 2:11pm
USDCHF barely a live unless SNB do some kind of intervention:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #217,074
  • Mar 27, 2010 2:13pm Mar 27, 2010 2:13pm
Quoting SkyzerFX
Exactly... Check USDCAD, AUDUSD, USDCHF. all near 2007 levels high..

And EUR to all those currencies are at All time record low.. Correction

coming. What I'm trying to say is that we trade in 1.35-1.38 zone for quite

sometime 1 1/2 month + while Greece problem was exists and Middle line is

$1.36 - that's the FAIR value of the EU right now, including Existing problems.

Drop to below 1.33 was extreme selling, while wasn't sure if Greece will be

provide any financial support at all either from IMF or Germany... Mechanism

to barrow money...
Have you ever considered that maybe the Euro has been the one over valued for the last 10 years, and that in reality maybe we were going back to pre George W Bush levels. I mean think about it. American real estate markets and stocks have been overvalued for the last 10 years, when the curtain was pulled back in 2008, investors flocked to the dollar. My opinion, the glory days of Dow 14000 manipulated es markets, ridiculously manipulated banking profits, and unfounded housing markets are behind us. I see the dollar going back down to the levels of 12 years ago, and the EU troubles from what we see now have been as bad as ours. A stronger dollar helps to eliminate deficits, so instead of printing more money, they make what's already out there worth more. EU needs a weaker currency to sell more profitables bonds, and get there economies jump started. My wife works at Denso Manufacturing. She said the orders have been consistently picking up for the last 3 months, so contrare to what a lot of people think, we are actually starting to recover. And that's saying a lot being that I'm here in MI, unemployment capital of the U.S (outside of FL). But then you don't live here in U.S so only source of info you have is the media!
All that is left in FF is just plain garbage. "Cloggie"
  • #217,075
  • Mar 27, 2010 2:23pm Mar 27, 2010 2:23pm
from the news section on Greece's bailout.

http://www.economist.com/business-fi...ry_id=15772801


Oh and I would like to add this. Greece's banking govenor has said he won't need to use the bailout package, but just last week he was begging Germany and France to come up with a substantial package or he would go to the IMF. Now where I'm from, they call that bluffing, and Germany has called that bluff and said go tho the IMF I want you too. If his country doesn't need to use the bailout plan, why then was he so nervous when one wasn't on the table?
All that is left in FF is just plain garbage. "Cloggie"
  • #217,076
  • Mar 27, 2010 2:27pm Mar 27, 2010 2:27pm
Quoting SkyzerFX
USDCHF barely a live unless SNB do some kind of intervention:
SkyzerFX, I don't profess to know more than you in this pair, or any pairs for that matter, but I've been reading a lot of your posts over the last couple of weeks, and I have gone back through more of your posts over the last several months, and I can see two things: 1. you've been swimming against the current all of March and I'm shocked that you haven't drowned yet, but good MM will save even the most misguided traders; and 2. you reeeeeeeeeeally hate the USD.

I don't mean to offend you, but if you're so good a reading your charts and predicting the bull run for the Euro, why don't your charts tell you when the Euro is turning BEAR? Is your hate of the greenback political? Personally, I hate/love all currencies equally. I've said it before, I would love the USD to appreciate because of what I do in business. But when it comes to Forex, I could care less.

Good trading to you, sir.
Si vis pacem, para bellum.
  • #217,077
  • Mar 27, 2010 2:30pm Mar 27, 2010 2:30pm
Quoting tonyo524
Have you ever considered that maybe the Euro has been the one over valued for the last 10 years, and that in reality maybe we were going back to pre George W Bush levels.
Yes, All I'm saying next 2 days will show everything, If I'm right then EU

will go over 1.35 then down but hold 1.34, If I don't, then we just go up

20-30 pips hit some Fibs and start to slide down again.

Let's see next 2 days... Let me tell you I'd short with much lower lot, then

go Long, that's how fair it is right now 70% on long and 30% on short would

be fair amount to play. that's how I see it, cause still - Buy low sell high

should do it...
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  • #217,078
  • Mar 27, 2010 2:31pm Mar 27, 2010 2:31pm
Quoting SkyzerFX
Yes, All I'm saying next 2 days will show everything, If I'm right then EU

will go over 1.35 then down but hold 1.34, If I don't, then we just go up

20-30 pips hit some Fibs and start to slide down again.

Let's see next 2 days... Let me tell you I'd short with much lower lot, then

go Long, that's how fair it is right now 70% on long and 30% on short would

be fair amount to play. that's how I see it, cause still - Buy low sell high

should do it...
Sounds fair to me!
All that is left in FF is just plain garbage. "Cloggie"
  • #217,079
  • Mar 27, 2010 2:38pm Mar 27, 2010 2:38pm
Quoting Duce
I don't mean to offend you, but if you're so good a reading your charts and predicting the bull run for the Euro, why don't your charts tell you when the Euro is turning BEAR?
Duce, I wasn't ready back then, using totally different system, which

was banking me good money, until it doesn't. Now? Yes I'd short or

Long, whatever comes first..
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  • #217,080
  • Mar 27, 2010 3:05pm Mar 27, 2010 3:05pm
“The dollar is still the safety currency,” said Jonathan Xiong, a senior portfolio manager and director at Mellon Capital Management Corp. in San Francisco, where he helps oversee $18 billion. “The European news that is coming out is unclear, clouded and uncertain. When investors are uncertain, what happens is they buy dollars.” Bloomberg.
Prices oscillate, trends persist. Trend is your friend.
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