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Stating The Obvious and The Quest For Wisdom

  • #1,221
  • Mar 25, 2010 4:51pm Mar 25, 2010 4:51pm
Quoting TheGreatMilenko
I didn't understand what you meant. Sorry.
Yeah pro trader here. He's asking whether you believe new rules that affect market micro structure won't change the way the market behaves.
  • #1,222
  • Mar 25, 2010 4:58pm Mar 25, 2010 4:58pm
Quoting Ari Gold
When I look at my bottom lines, and then at all the talk on the thread... it just doesnt add up why people would bother talking so much about something that hasnt helped me to interact profitably with the market on a consistent basis.
We don't care if it has helped you or not. The interest of this thread has very little to do with Fibs or TA much anyway, we can get enough of that elsewhere. You serve no purpose here trying to tell us how to trade. You talk like every other trader out there. That is not to say you are not profitable. I do not know if you are profitable. I just don't care, so please stop talking about it. It is cluttering up what I AM interested in this thread, which is order flow.
All I ask for is a chance to prove that money cannot make me happy.
  • #1,223
  • Mar 25, 2010 5:00pm Mar 25, 2010 5:00pm
Quoting Ari Gold
I am convinced that you dont actually need to become the 'market whisperer' ... understanding, interpreting, and predicting market order flow and placement.
agreement removed*

order flow and order clustering is the shiz.

EDIT: actually never mind i took what you said wrong your saying we are market wisperers if we read order flow and order clustering.. eh
  • #1,224
  • Mar 25, 2010 5:15pm Mar 25, 2010 5:15pm
Quoting domino
agreement removed*

order flow and order clustering is the shiz.

EDIT: actually never mind i took what you said wrong your saying we are market wisperers if we read order flow and order clustering.. eh
When i said "whisperer"... i was kinda referring to the fact that unless you work in a bank, or get good information from someone working in a bank, you cant know FOR SURE how much size has built up at a level. Without knowing that, you cant be sure the market will actually run the level or not. (There is still an edge there though... for sure). Thats why I used the term 'predicting' and not 'reading'.

I deleted all of my posts. Sorry for cluttering.

Cheers,
MM
"If it bleeds ... we can kill it"
  • #1,225
  • Edited 10:18pm Mar 25, 2010 5:22pm | Edited 10:18pm
Sorry Milenko,

But nobody likes your inane, profane posts. It has nothing to do with my faith. You and I have had disagreements before, usually you come back a few hours later to report you were sloppy drunk. Remember, respect thy fellow trader, yeah, I guess I do have a little faith in the rules around here.

I don't know how many times we have to say it. The thesis of this thread has nothing to do with the credibility of TA, please get off this guys. It's simply long term + orderflow analysis, maybe more OF as of late .

As you read the thread, don't forget that Darkstar and I are talking about different sides of the time horizon in regard to OF. Maybe he will talk about trading known OF eventually, but so far it's been about expected OF.

Thanks guys..We need to get the thread cleaned up, but we'll make it.

Scotty
  • #1,226
  • Mar 25, 2010 5:26pm Mar 25, 2010 5:26pm
Quoting Ari Gold
When i said "whisperer"... i was kinda referring to the fact that unless you work in a bank, or get good information from someone working in a bank, you cant know FOR SURE how much size has built up at a level. Without knowing that, you cant be sure the market will actually run the level or not. (There is still an edge there though... for sure). Thats why I used the term 'predicting' and not 'reading'.

I deleted all of my posts. Sorry for cluttering.

Cheers,
MM
order book and plain logic tells u where things cluster or should probably what they mean by expected order flow dunno guys i just jumped in a didnt read the other 60 pages of stuff lol probably should since this is about the stuff I like
  • #1,227
  • Mar 25, 2010 6:58pm Mar 25, 2010 6:58pm
Quoting Deusomega
This thread is getting boring . "Blah blah blah big traders make mistakes blah blah blah generic canned advice follows blah blah DS has big balls blah blah some philosophy about human existence thrown in blah blah blah"
That's fine, blah away as much as you feel. Hat tip to the name of this thread. My point is that even if you are king dick of all traders, you can't ever ignore good fundamentals in the trading PROCESS. You can't argue against that. No matter how cashed up you are or how tricked up you think your order flow and microstructure analysis is. The disposition effect is well documented in finance literature, and DS's experience serves as a reminder for all. You don't want to be all tip and no iceberg do you.
Thank you Crucial Point, Bleek, Trizzle, Darkstar
  • #1,228
  • Edited 10:59pm Mar 25, 2010 10:39pm | Edited 10:59pm
Quoting domino
order book and plain logic tells u where things cluster or should probably what they mean by expected order flow dunno guys i just jumped in a didnt read the other 60 pages of stuff lol probably should since this is about the stuff I like

Expected flow is pretty much TA with a deep understanding for underlying drivers of your market along with lots of experiance. I beleive Harris would refer to this as "order anticipation trading." The orders have not come in yet, so you're are basically guessing what will happen.

Option defense plays would be another aspect of it. As I have said, this is not my cup of tea.

The orderflow that I am personally familiar/experianced with is known orderflow (orders that have already happened). My focus is not on predicting future orders, but on taking advantage of order imbalaces that occur before my eyes. This is how I get in and cover because the price/psychology impact of these imbalances always pushes you into profit, abeit sometimes for only a few pips, sometimes for hundreds or more if you get in at the right time (this is only clear after the fact).

I am hoping to learn more from DS so I can bridge the gap and hopefully find the places that will take off like a rocket so I can walk away in profit. I'm actually thinking of going to school for programing so I can really do it right and just build a robot to daytrade for me. It is something that is worlds ahead of MT4 capabilites and I have no idea what that world looks like. (this would also solve my time dilema)

EDIT

One more thing..I'm doing what I do in MT4 and oanda. My biggest problem right now is execution latency (I'm doing it freaking manually). To temporarily solve this, does anybody know how to make MT4 a truly one button buy, one button close operaton where I'm not always asked to confirm my trades? I'd want a standard size trade to be ready to go when I hit that button. No SL or TP it's 100% manual. In my Oanda terminal I have "confirm trades" unchecked and yet it still slows me down with countless pop up confirmation windows. So frustrating
  • #1,229
  • Mar 25, 2010 10:42pm Mar 25, 2010 10:42pm
Scotty, what do you think of 4900 in cable, if you don't mind my asking
  • #1,230
  • Mar 25, 2010 10:51pm Mar 25, 2010 10:51pm
Quoting aeb
Scotty, what do you think of 4900 in cable, if you don't mind my asking
To be honest, I don't have a clue. I'm a real bad guesser. What I'm doing that actually works is so micro based that it would do me no good to even try to answer your question.

My approach would be to gain a risk free entry and hope if I had some level in mind that the market would realize.
  • #1,231
  • Mar 25, 2010 11:00pm Mar 25, 2010 11:00pm
thats what I did, might have to be out soon though
  • #1,232
  • Mar 26, 2010 12:02am Mar 26, 2010 12:02am
On some level, all trading boils down to order anticipation trading. It doesn't matter if it is FA, TA, OFA, scalp, day, swing, long term, cyclic, trend, anti-trend, volatility, etc. It all comes down to placing that order in anticipation of somebody else pushing things in your direction. Anticipating future order flow is what makes the markets go round. The type of front end analysis doesn't nullify this fact. Call it what you wish, it all comes down to anticipation, prediction, forecasting, guessing or some other synonym, all rationalizations aside.

If you are correct and orders do come in, you profit. If you are incorrect and orders don't come in, you don't. No way to avoid this simple truth, regardless of the language we use to describe our trading, setups, mindset etc., correct anticipation is at the heart of all profitable trading. An order imbalance is only a profitable venture if you anticipate orders balancing and orders do in fact balance. If orders don't balance within your risk parameters you don't profit. So you're left with anticipation.

Quoting Scotty B
Expected flow is pretty much TA with a deep understanding for underlying drivers of your market along with lots of experiance. I beleive Harris would refer to this as "order anticipation trading." The orders have not come in yet, so you're are basically guessing what will happen.
  • #1,233
  • Edited 12:38am Mar 26, 2010 12:21am | Edited 12:38am
Quoting FXEZ
On some level, all trading boils down to order anticipation trading. It doesn't matter if it is FA, TA, OFA, scalp, day, swing, long term, cyclic, trend, anti-trend, volatility, etc. It all comes down to placing that order in anticipation of somebody else pushing things in your direction. Anticipating future order flow is what makes the markets go round. The type of front end analysis doesn't nullify this fact. Call it what you wish, it all comes down to anticipation, prediction, forecasting, guessing or some other synonym, all rationalizations...
Hey man,

I see what you are saying, but I'm not talking about anticipating. I'm talking about following the wake of actual order imbalances. Anticipating comes after the price impact decays and your entry area can be touched again. So you get in the market 100% objectively and then cover yourself and hope you're not taken out. This is an attempt at using OF to stay in the market. That or you take the profit the market gives, immeadiatley get out and wait for the next one, hence the conveineance of automation. I don't have spell check on this computer so if I look like an idiot..well...
  • #1,234
  • Edited 2:34am Mar 26, 2010 12:36am | Edited 2:34am
Quoting FXEZ
Anticipating future order flow is what makes the markets go round
I'm responding to this seperatley because I think it's a very profound thought for us speculators. Good work EZ.

It's almost as if current price movement isn't even about the current moment, but a representation of the market's perception of what will happen later. Very fascinating indeed. I wonder what kind of time horizon this effect has? How do well do current returns caculated from fixed points in time predict future directional returns? It makes me think of something as humble as the simple trendline. If the trendline is pointing up, how many higher single prices will be seen before the market is underperforming the slope of that trendline, or trading under the 2nd fixed point of the line? Lots of theoreticals, just throwing that out there.

(another thought) If the above paragraph holds any truth to it at all, this is where having streaming open interest would be very valuable.

I have no idea how much one could flesh this out to it's full implications, but I'm gonna chew on this one for a while.

The only problem you'd face is seperating out the utilitarian traders who's trades are not representitive of future returns. Hmm.
  • #1,235
  • Mar 26, 2010 12:49am Mar 26, 2010 12:49am
Quoting Scotty B
It's almost as if current price movement isn't even about the current moment, but a representation of the market's perception of what will happen later. Very fascinating indeed.
Agreed. Maybe I'd say: the market's perception of what it believes will happen later.

The future influences the present just as much as the past.
Friedrich Nietzsche
  • #1,236
  • Mar 26, 2010 12:49am Mar 26, 2010 12:49am
Quoting Scotty B
EDIT

One more thing..I'm doing what I do in MT4 and oanda. My biggest problem right now is execution latency (I'm doing it freaking manually). To temporarily solve this, does anybody know how to make MT4 a truly one button buy, one button close operaton where I'm not always asked to confirm my trades? I'd want a standard size trade to be ready to go when I hit that button. No SL or TP it's 100% manual. In my Oanda terminal I have "confirm trades" unchecked and yet it still slows me down with countless pop up confirmation windows. So frustrating...
I was not sure what you are looking for but some good scripts to market order or limit order without confirmation:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=193727

Thank you for the great thread.
Best Pip Wishes!
  • #1,237
  • Mar 26, 2010 1:01am Mar 26, 2010 1:01am
Quoting Scotty B
... the market's perception of what will happen later. Very fascinating indeed..... Hmm.
Huh? You are laboring under an assumption that there is far, far more order inherent in the fx market than there actually is.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #1,238
  • Edited 1:19am Mar 26, 2010 1:07am | Edited 1:19am
Quoting Scotty B
One more thing..I'm doing what I do in MT4 and oanda. My biggest problem right now is execution latency (I'm doing it freaking manually). To temporarily solve this, does anybody know how to make MT4 a truly one button buy, one button close operaton where I'm not always asked to confirm my trades? I'd want a standard size trade to be ready to go when I hit that button. No SL or TP it's 100% manual. In my Oanda terminal I have "confirm trades" unchecked and yet it still slows me down with countless pop up confirmation windows. So frustrating...
In MT4 you can use scripts.
This is how you buy a lot with 50 pips SL and TP.

int start()
{
int lots = 1;
int slippage = 1;
double sl_tp = 0.0050;
int ticket = OrderSend(Symbol(), OP_BUY, lots, Ask, slippage, Ask - sl_tp, Ask + sl_tp);
return(0);
}

This is how you sell a lot with 50 pips SL and TP.

int start()
{
int lots = 1;
int slippage = 1;
double sl_tp = 0.0050;
int ticket = OrderSend(Symbol(), OP_SELL, lots, Bid, slippage, Bid - sl_tp, Bid + sl_tp);
return(0);
}

Copy it in 2 scripts. Double click on them or drag them in a chart.


To close the first order in your list just use the script named close and remove the 3 #property lines at the beginning to remove the confirmation.
  • #1,239
  • Mar 26, 2010 2:44am Mar 26, 2010 2:44am
Quoting The Fool
Huh? You are laboring under an assumption that there is far, far more order inherent in the fx market than there actually is.
I appriciate the thought. Would you be kind enough to elaborate a litte bit? Just because we can't see order doesn't mean it's not there. Maybe you could give an example of what an ordered market looks like so we can see the dichotomy.
  • #1,240
  • Mar 26, 2010 2:44am Mar 26, 2010 2:44am
Quoting Marsh
I disagree with just about every point made in this post. I am at work and do not have time to discuss why, but perhaps in about 8-10 hours when I get home if I have the energy I may give my input.

(This is not against you Luso, I just disagree)

Edit: I write this 4 hours later...seeing where the thread went I think it would be unwise to explain my disagreements. Oh well...
It's a shame. I am very interested on knowing about your disagreements.
Almost all I said is based on academic studies.

The last sentence is a personal belief.

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