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Stating The Obvious and The Quest For Wisdom

  • #1,181
  • Mar 25, 2010 8:42am Mar 25, 2010 8:42am
Quoting chatzi
You will never know if you are right, concentrate on trading, you will be able to tell if you're right about that.
Wtf does this mean. I hate canned crap like this it pisses me off to no end. "Trade the reaction" "Don't predict just trade what you see" "You don't need to be right or wrong about trading to make money" BLAH BLAH BLAH

All of that is @$## Every trader predicts. Every trader speculates. Every good trader thinks about what has happened in the past to predict what might happen in the future.

OF COURSE I WILL NEVER KNOW IF I'M RIGHT UNTIL AFTER THE FACT. This is the whole reason we must speculate. If you don't think about why price did certain things at certain price levels then more power to you. I will continue to think about cause and effect.
  • #1,182
  • Mar 25, 2010 8:46am Mar 25, 2010 8:46am
Quoting Deusomega
Wtf does this mean. I hate canned crap like this it pisses me off to no end. "Trade the reaction" "Don't predict just trade what you see" "You don't need to be right or wrong about trading to make money" BLAH BLAH BLAH

All of that is @$## Every trader predicts. Every trader speculates. Every good trader thinks about what has happened in the past to predict what might happen in the future.

OF COURSE I WILL NEVER KNOW IF I'M RIGHT UNTIL AFTER THE FACT. This is the whole reason we must speculate. If you don't think about why price did certain...
No I meant so if you think "Yeah that move was caused by a stop run", you will never know if it was that or something else, and even if you are right, dosnt help you become profitable. You will be able to post more stuff on the forums through so maybe that is what you are after. Good luck hope you make it to 5000posts, Ill go for 500k account.
  • #1,183
  • Mar 25, 2010 8:54am Mar 25, 2010 8:54am
Quoting chatzi
No I meant so if you think "Yeah that move was caused by a stop run", you will never know if it was that or something else, and even if you are right, dosnt help you become profitable. You will be able to post more stuff on the forums through so maybe that is what you are after. Good luck hope you make it to 5000posts, Ill go for 500k account.
So if I'm right more times than being wrong that wouldn't help me? I currently already take trades based on what I believe will happen... so of course if I am right it will help me...

I don't get your post comment. I've only recently been posting more because Darkstar has been back and commenting. And bsing here and there to call out trolls and useless threads.

I only have 63 more posts than you... while your account is a little over one month old and mine is getting close to being a year old.

So I can assure you that I spend the majority of my time reading rather than posting.
  • #1,184
  • Mar 25, 2010 9:00am Mar 25, 2010 9:00am
Quoting Deusomega
So if I'm right more times than being wrong that wouldn't help me? I currently already take trades based on what I believe will happen... so of course if I am right it will help me...

I don't get your post comment. I've only recently been posting more because Darkstar has been back and commenting. And bsing here and there to call out trolls and useless threads.

I only have 63 more posts than you... while your account is a little over one month old and mine is getting close to being a year old.

So I can assure you that I spend the majority...

I dont think you understood, doesn't matter, this is a dead end thread, it will not help you one iota in your trading. I would advice anyone to read from proven traders, not some jokers that make teh wrong calls.

Bye
  • #1,185
  • Mar 25, 2010 9:25am Mar 25, 2010 9:25am
Where's the brotherly love I tried to encourage by posting that video?
Living the adventure in my head.
  • #1,186
  • Mar 25, 2010 10:05am Mar 25, 2010 10:05am
Quoting Leonlorenzo
Where's the brotherly love I tried to encourage by posting that video?
For brotherly love to exist the brothers must each be reasonable. A reasonable person who finds no value in a particular thread simply leaves the thread. Rather Chatzi seems intent on spreading his opinion as some sort of holy gospel. If he believes in fibs then thats fine with me... if he wants to start a fib thread than thats fine I won't come in and troll it. His last post shows how reasonable he is.

I just find it amusing how people are turning on DS because he lost a trade. By his own admittance through past posts he says he ranges in the high 80s of winning trades therefore one trade is meaningless but it seems it has caused him to lose all credibility in some unreasonable individuals' minds. His 50k loss is more than a great majority of individuals will even have in their bank account throughout their lifetime.

Soros has been mentioned before... he has lost billions but no one cares. Livermore filed bankruptcy and blew his brains out. But losses are rarely mentioned when discussing these individuals.
  • #1,187
  • Mar 25, 2010 10:51am Mar 25, 2010 10:51am
Quoting chatzi
No I meant so if you think "Yeah that move was caused by a stop run", you will never know if it was that or something else, and even if you are right, dosnt help you become profitable..
Many long tail moves are caused by stops and this is a really important concept to grasp if you really want to trade fx. Read the osler paper I posted earlier to this thread for some hard data.
  • #1,188
  • Mar 25, 2010 11:16am Mar 25, 2010 11:16am
Quoting chatzi
They are not predictive but can be a factor that you add to the probablity that your trade will profit. Draw a few fibs from a long daily move from different lows (or highs), you will likely see reaction at 50 or 61.8 or any that line up, if it happens to also be S/R or some sort (trend line, or horizontal), then that area is a hot zone. If you get a pin bar or some other pa bar, then you will want to play it.
I know I said I was taking a break, but I can't help at least making a half-assed attempt to keep up with this thread...

Chatzi, maybe you could take a few minutes and explain to us WHY fibs increase your trade win probability (in confluence or otherwise). Like, why does price seem to bounce off the 50 or 61.8 fib line? What is the root cause for that price activity?

There are lots of other things that have been said/asked that I will address next week. I'm pointing out this one because it strikes to the heart of what this thread is really all about.

OK.. I'm leaving now.
  • #1,189
  • Mar 25, 2010 11:44am Mar 25, 2010 11:44am
I feel this discussion about the validity of fibonacci or any other technical tools is beating a dead horse, and honestly, I don't know much more the poor animal can take.

It was clear to me the moment I started learning about forex that TA instruments in general are basically a bunch of bs, in the sense that they don't mean anything in themselves. However, with enough people paying attention to certain numbers, whether it is a fib, a S/R level or whatever, sometimes prices will act a certain way when they reach certain levels. So in that sense, TA will sometimes be able to predict price moves, even if there's no intrinsic reason per se.

I feel like I am stating something really obvious and lame here and I am sure you all know this but seeing how this debate of "TA will tell you what will happen next vs TA cannot predict anything" comes up again and again makes me wonder if not everybody sees the subject as clear cut as I do.
  • #1,190
  • Mar 25, 2010 11:57am Mar 25, 2010 11:57am
I'm going to throw this out there just for the sake of discussion. We all know most people who start out in trading, will take up TA. Now I don't know the reasoning or mathamatical formulas on how fib, elliot wave, gann lines, etc was conjured up. But what if the tool was so popular that say a large percent of the traders were using them. Wouldn't that give you a predictive sense on what they're seeing and in that sense, gives you an idea on how to exploit this?

I'm not saying I use any of these but I can see how if enough traders were going to use these tools, they can become a self fullfilling prophecy.
Thoughts?
  • #1,191
  • Mar 25, 2010 12:02pm Mar 25, 2010 12:02pm
Quoting sir6
I'm going to throw this out there just for the sake of discussion. We all know most people who start out in trading, will take up TA. Now I don't know the reasoning or mathamatical formulas on how fib, elliot wave, gann lines, etc was conjured up. But what if the tool was so popular that say a large percent of the traders were using them. Wouldn't that give you a predictive sense on what they're seeing and in that sense, gives you an idea on how to exploit this?

I'm not saying I use any of these but I can see how if enough traders were going...
Well, in other words you basically repeated exactly what I said, so I obviously agree.
  • #1,192
  • Mar 25, 2010 12:05pm Mar 25, 2010 12:05pm
Quoting Tenshi28
Well, in other words you basically repeated exactly what I said, so I obviously agree.
lol I'm at work so I was writing this in between my down time. I read your post after I posted mine so the only thing I can say is....great minds think alike
  • #1,193
  • Mar 25, 2010 12:12pm Mar 25, 2010 12:12pm
Quoting sir6
lol I'm at work so I was writing this in between my down time. I read your post after I posted mine so the only thing I can say is....great minds think alike
Haha, touché.
  • #1,194
  • Mar 25, 2010 1:35pm Mar 25, 2010 1:35pm
Quoting Leonlorenzo
I'm worried, maybe it's the kind of thing only Britons and possibly Aussies would be amused by. No other responses :/
Well, this American thinks it's funny and an appropriate vid to post!
(Not sure why it would be banned anywhere, really.)
  • #1,195
  • Mar 25, 2010 2:04pm Mar 25, 2010 2:04pm
Quoting Darkstar
What is the root cause for that price activity?
It would be great to stay focused on this.

(My short answer - orders.)
  • #1,196
  • Mar 25, 2010 2:06pm Mar 25, 2010 2:06pm
Quoting Darkstar
Like, why does price seem to bounce off the 50 or 61.8 fib line? What is the root cause for that price activity?
Just to clarify, 50% is not a fibonacci ratio.

Asking (EDIT - Answering - LOL) DS question, a retrace of 50% of an important move (daily, weekly) is a zone where the smart money has placed limit orders to enter cheap in an established trend.
A proven profitable m/l term trader says he only uses the 50% retrace to enter trades because everyone (and I don't mean retail here) watches it. His name is Jacko.

Based on what I've read from some studies and surveys, it wouldn't be smart from us retailers to ignore TA.
A very large percentage of traders in banks say they analyse price in charts.
The Forex market is, very probably, and I am saying this based on Order Flow studies, the more technical market that exists.

Fundamental models are important too, but only if the time horizon for your trades is more than a year. Fundamental models, based on that studies, are less reliable to trade even if you are a swing trader.

Combining OF (to know what type and where orders are placed and understanding their effects in price) and TA (getting clues from past movements in price to estimate logical places for entries, stops and trade management) is, in my opinion, a very valid way to find one style as a trader.

Best
  • #1,197
  • Edited 6:52pm Mar 25, 2010 2:18pm | Edited 6:52pm
Quoting Luso
Just to clarify, 50% is not a fibonacci ratio.

Asking (EDIT - Answering - LOL) DS question, a retrace of 50% of an important move (daily, weekly) is a zone where the smart money has placed limit orders to enter cheap in an established trend.
A proven profitable m/l term trader says he only uses the 50% retrace to enter trades because everyone (and I don't mean retail here) watches it. His name is Jacko.

Based on what I've read from some studies and surveys, it wouldn't be smart from us retailers to ignore TA.
A very large percentage of...

I disagree with just about every point made in this post. I am at work and do not have time to discuss why, but perhaps in about 8-10 hours when I get home if I have the energy I may give my input.

(This is not against you Luso, I just disagree)

Edit: I write this 4 hours later...seeing where the thread went I think it would be unwise to explain my disagreements. Oh well...
All I ask for is a chance to prove that money cannot make me happy.
  • #1,198
  • Mar 25, 2010 2:27pm Mar 25, 2010 2:27pm
I'd bet the house that entering after a 50% retracement from an important trend is better in the long run than entering simply when you start feeling the order flow.
In other words, after you establish that due to fundamentals the EURO will go south a few hundreds pips you should look at a chart and try to find a good entry. This could a round number, an important S/R or a FIB retracement.
  • #1,199
  • Mar 25, 2010 2:29pm Mar 25, 2010 2:29pm
Quoting TheGreatMilenko
I think this question has been asked a couple of times. No one seems to have answered it. I would like to know the answer too, just out of curiosity. Unless I've missed the answer, in which case could someone direct me to it please?
CBOT website
  • #1,200
  • Mar 25, 2010 2:34pm Mar 25, 2010 2:34pm
Quoting Deusomega
As I've said previously I'm sticking to short term so I can see the cause and effect more readily. Short term I favor the EUR coming back to 1.3300. EU leaders are meeting today so anything could happen.
OMG I'm 1/1 on public forums ready to fund that live account!
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