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Stating The Obvious and The Quest For Wisdom

  • #1,201
  • Mar 25, 2010 2:35pm Mar 25, 2010 2:35pm
Quoting Leonlorenzo
Where's the brotherly love I tried to encourage by posting that video?
Just remember, no more than three shakes.....
Biggest joker
  • #1,202
  • Mar 25, 2010 2:39pm Mar 25, 2010 2:39pm
Quoting Sauron
I'd bet the house that entering after a 50% retracement from an important trend is better in the long run than entering simply when you start feeling the order flow.
Order flow is the reason there is an important trend in the first place.
Don't wish it were easier, wish you were better. ~ Jim Rohn
  • #1,203
  • Mar 25, 2010 2:49pm Mar 25, 2010 2:49pm
Quoting Darkstar
Chatzi, maybe you could take a few minutes and explain to us WHY fibs increase your trade win probability (in confluence or otherwise). Like, why does price seem to bounce off the 50 or 61.8 fib line? What is the root cause for that price activity?
Hi guys,

I may be completely off point here but I think Darkstar is saying that the reason price may appear to bounce off the 50 or 61.8 level is because there are orders there not because of some magical indicator.

The reason that orders are placed at these levels is psychological... traders use the fib tool to gauge entries on retracements therefore orders are placed using those levels (p.s. I am well aware that 50% is not a fib ratio, but that is not the point).

The same thing with regards to support and resistance - it's all psych.

Perhaps the point Darkstar wants to highlight is that understanding where traders are interested in placing orders can help in making trading decisions.

Again, I may be miles off what he was saying but that's just how I saw it because that's how I think when I trade!

Regards,

Dan
  • #1,204
  • Mar 25, 2010 3:33pm Mar 25, 2010 3:33pm
Quoting Ari Gold
Sorry... annoys me to see people talking so much bullshit when trading is such a simple game, once you get there (consistency).
This makes me think of the movie "Rounders": a long term succesful trader grinds it out like Matt Damon but we all wanna be Edward Norton.
  • #1,205
  • Mar 25, 2010 3:33pm Mar 25, 2010 3:33pm
Quoting Darkstar
We weren't buying because the euro was cheap. We were buying on the premise that a Greek bailout would entice buy orders into the market. The climax of that event happened yesterday when France and Germany agreed that the IMF should take the lead. The default risk has averted but the market dropped precipitously as a result.

[color=black][font=Verdana]The hard truth is, I failed in my analysis. Apparently the concern was never really about "if" greece would get a bailout. It was "how" that bailout...
DS, Why did u left out a mention of Portugal debt downgrading by Fitch? That could also be a factor driving risk aversion and the downside rather than whole IMF taking the lead?
I cud be wrong, just want to know what you think abt that piece of news?
  • #1,206
  • Mar 25, 2010 3:41pm Mar 25, 2010 3:41pm
Quoting Tenshi28
This makes me think of the movie "Rounders": a long term succesful trader grinds it out like Matt Damon but we all wanna be Edward Norton.
I just don't buy that trading is simple.
  • #1,207
  • Mar 25, 2010 4:28pm Mar 25, 2010 4:28pm
Quoting Ari Gold
Yeah.

Heres how it works:

EDIT: I've blown 9 accounts at the age of 23, and about 40k. But that is all there is to trading profitably.
Quoting Ari Gold
I cant hear you guys over the sound of how awesome I am.
good point ari you are pretty awesome

the market will humble you looks like its tried a couple of times before
  • #1,208
  • Mar 25, 2010 4:33pm Mar 25, 2010 4:33pm
Quoting Tenshi28
I feel this discussion about the validity of fibonacci or any other technical tools is beating a dead horse, and honestly, I don't know much more the poor animal can take.
sorry, the animal is alive. There is a thread form 2005 or 2006 where Darkstar said that Fibonacci works only due the self fully profecy. Then Suntrader replied with charts showing fibonacci retrecementes working. These charts where from before any book about fibonacci where released.

i am not taking a side in this discussion, only saying while Darkstar and Suntrader are participants of this thread, it is not dead.
  • #1,209
  • Mar 25, 2010 4:42pm Mar 25, 2010 4:42pm
Quoting Ari Gold
Thanks, you are a cool guy.

The market has beaten me like a red headed step-son, and ive been humbled. Im not being arrogant, just matter of fact. If you disagree with anything i have said, point it out.

Thanks,
MM
well one you cant confine the market to your personal risk:reward it also will not continue to generate the same risk reward over time with any strategy.. as the market changes and reacts differently your system will eventually invalidate yourself and youll spend time still grinding the system hoping the odds will again shift back into your direction and youll destroy a 10th account by "death by 1000 stops" youll never know your win ratio because the market will keep it in a constant state of flux and youll never know if the market is acting abnormally or not because you did not take the time to understand how the market moves.. volatility will destroy those trailing stops because they are fixed and do not adjust to market activity. anyways i dont have time to list it all
  • #1,210
  • Mar 25, 2010 5:12pm Mar 25, 2010 5:12pm
Quoting domino
as the market changes and reacts differently your system will eventually invalidate yourself
This is another one of the "truths" that is thrown around without much thought. The FX market goes up and down. The one thing that does change is volatility, but the structure remains the same.

Oops, just saw the post above which said the same thing.
  • #1,211
  • Mar 25, 2010 5:16pm Mar 25, 2010 5:16pm
Its happening again. Scotty bro you gotta take control of your thread man.
All I ask for is a chance to prove that money cannot make me happy.
  • #1,212
  • Mar 25, 2010 5:25pm Mar 25, 2010 5:25pm
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  • #1,213
  • Mar 25, 2010 5:29pm Mar 25, 2010 5:29pm
This is like watching 5 minute charts, lots of noise to be filtered.

Milenko: using your own language, if you're so fucking awesome and this is all fucking idiotic then you don't need to waste your time in this thread and you can get the fuck out of here.
  • #1,214
  • Mar 25, 2010 5:36pm Mar 25, 2010 5:36pm
Why is there this need to guide people and "lead them to water".... As far as I know no one is paying to be in this thread... no one is being forced to participate in this thread... why the hell is there all this argument and negativity in this thread?

Why are people acting like the people participating in this thread are somehow frozen solid in time progression wise? It's not as if we are posting in this thread and NOT taking trades and doing other things to improve our trading at the same time... I'm fairly confident in multitasking and also as stated before EVERYONE IS PARTICIPATING VOLUNTARILY IN THIS THREAD. There is no one to save. Why are people suddenly developing savior complexes?

If you have nothing constructive to say in regards to the stuff being discussed then don't say anything... no one needs anyone in this thread... and once again no one needs to be led.

If anyone in this thread is seriously interested in helping people then stop giving this shitty canned advice bullshit over and over. "Get a system, test it, bingo your done" WOW WHAT A @#$@$#@ REVELATION. These type of statements add nothing. Also tired of people acting like trading is simple thats BS too. EVERYONE WOULD TRADE IF IT WAS SIMPLE. If DEVELOPING RULES AND TRADING THEM WAS ALL THAT WAS NEEDED THERE WOULD BE PLENTY OF EAS already developed that are highly profitable.
  • #1,215
  • Mar 25, 2010 5:43pm Mar 25, 2010 5:43pm
Quoting giraia_br
sorry, the animal is alive. There is a thread form 2005 or 2006 where Darkstar said that Fibonacci works only due the self fully profecy. Then Suntrader replied with charts showing fibonacci retrecementes working. These charts where from before any book about fibonacci where released.

i am not taking a side in this discussion, only saying while Darkstar and Suntrader are participants of this thread, it is not dead.
I've been lurking :nerd:and I see you mention my previous post regarding fibonacci. Thanks.

Yes it is true before Mr Elliott and his wave theory in the 30's and Robert Prechter reviving it in the 80's the market moved (often, but not always) in fib numbered wave patterns. Still does. Just as there are still non-believers and always will be.

I do agree that many instances nowadays fibs can be self-fulfilling but there are probably times when "they" bust price right through them because "they" know the retail crowd watches them closely.

But it always comes down to this, they work and they don't work. Which can be said for ANYTHING else.

I always keep in mind though that where to enter a trade is not even 1/2 the battle, it might be 1/4. Another 1/4 is trade/money management and the final 1/2, most importantly, is the exit.

Back to lurking and using my fav smiley.
  • #1,216
  • Mar 25, 2010 5:49pm Mar 25, 2010 5:49pm
Quoting TheGreatMilenko
He used to post , like 10 times a day, till he lost his £200. He is a huge wall to anyone learning how to trade.
My mistake, only 4.37 times a day EVERY DAY for almost four years.
  • #1,217
  • Mar 25, 2010 6:12pm Mar 25, 2010 6:12pm
Quoting TheGreatMilenko
....Darkstars cock like some people are, that's for sure.

LOL sounds like someone is a bit jealous

Seriously man, I'd love to hear what great insight you have to share besides the barrage of profanity.
  • #1,218
  • Mar 25, 2010 6:31pm Mar 25, 2010 6:31pm
Quoting TheGreatMilenko
All the insight you need is on the last couple of pages. What I said, and what Ari Gold said. It's all you need. As for profanity...well ...there was never any of that in the trading pits when I was a lad.........
What insight? Basically all that was said was find a system with a profitable edge and has good risk/reward. So find a profitable way to trade and then add in sensible risk management? What unbelievably valuable insight.... that anyone... who has read any trading book... would KNOW is the key to trading profitably. This is the generic advice that anyone can give without being called out on because it is common sense.
  • #1,219
  • Mar 25, 2010 6:44pm Mar 25, 2010 6:44pm
Quoting Ari Gold
I was stating the obvious... and sharing wisdom...
You're right about stating the obvious. I guess I'm must a sucker for substance.
  • #1,220
  • Mar 25, 2010 6:48pm Mar 25, 2010 6:48pm
Quoting TheGreatMilenko
Sorry Dom , you're wrong. The fx markets have always moved in the same way, and always will do. You need to understand/ know, how they move, before you will make any money from this market. The only thing you need to adjust your method for, is volatility. Sorry but all you've done is restated one of the trading myths, that stop people making any money. The myth being, that markets change over time, so you need to change your method. Not true. ( volatility aside).
so your telling me that taking away an uptick rule or applying a short sell ban or new rules that cause the market to change differently dont happen? k bud think about it
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