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  • #216,561
  • Mar 25, 2010 6:43pm Mar 25, 2010 6:43pm
Quoting lloydblankfe
there is a large possibility these problems will start to spill.
Treasury demand is going down, an appreciating dollar well its only going up against the two other sick currencies eur and gbp, will make things worse a...
Yeah Im thinking along similar lines, what will be the next driver for price action? I cant bring myself to open any new positions at the moment as im not sure where this dollar rally will end? We look to be approaching major resistance on the dollar index (sorry i cant post a graph havent got access to dollar index on this comp) could that have been the last big push now before the dollar reverses ? Technically I wouldnt be surprised if it was but I cant see any fundamental reason yet
  • #216,562
  • Mar 25, 2010 6:47pm Mar 25, 2010 6:47pm
Quoting PipLand
Originally, martingale referred to a class of betting strategies popular in 18th century France. The simplest of these strategies was designed for a game in which the gambler wins his stake if a coin comes up heads and loses it if the coin comes up tails. The strategy had the gambler double his bet after every loss, so that the first win would recover all previous losses plus win a profit equal to the original stake. Since...
If you have enough wealth and start very small, I think martingale can be a profittable system. I do believe casinos place limits to prevent a player from getting back to even. Now that doesn't mean that I would promote it in forex. Unlike casino gambling where the winner is determined by a roll of the dice, spin of the wheel or a card dealt, forex trades take time to develop. Therefore, you have to consider time aka opportunity cost. Same goes for hedging. They are both cousins martingale and hedging. Maybe even brother and sister on second thought. I have found playing bounces and closing out trades according to s/r, tl's, fibs, etc. is more profittable then sitting around waiting for a trade to make up losses. That's just my opinion.
  • #216,563
  • Mar 25, 2010 6:50pm Mar 25, 2010 6:50pm
Quoting arezab
Skyzer ... The point is if somebody really has $10,000,000 in his pocket why the hell should he sit in front of a PC staring at these candles trying to make $10 or 50 and even worse waiting for the losing position which is we say $200 or $500 in loss to turn into profit and calling all of these "Business" ... isn't that ridiculous at all.
Absolutely agree, but if I can make constant money with 0.01 lot and only

problem is the amount of money? Get somebody to write EA and let it run,

and if EA can make 10-20% a year? You are the king

I'll figure out something.. Cause all this TP/SL bull S*t definitely why we

all losing.. Just few hours ago I dumped 3 Shorts of USDCHF and now

2 hours later I would be banking... Something is wrong with this picture

overall.. But in general I agree with what you are saying..

"Why would he sit" but what if "he" open up some Forex mutual fund

bring 20 billion $$$ in and make constantly 10-15%/year for it's clients?

Would be a different story then, right?
Viewer Discretion Advised: Shall we shag now or should we shag later? :-)
  • #216,564
  • Mar 25, 2010 6:51pm Mar 25, 2010 6:51pm
for the moment sentiment is heavily down ,

merkel and sarkozy representing the 2 most powerfull nations in the eu-zone
will not act unless imf is in the picture

these are the exact words of trichet (it's bad VERY bad) wich fears the worst

i'm an ultimate optimist but eu is fucked (and i'm a european), so lets profit on it guys ,great opportunity

if washington(imf) gets its hands into eu , will traders still have confidence in eu for medium term ?

imf will though .. eu-members seem to support this at the moment
  • #216,565
  • Mar 25, 2010 6:55pm Mar 25, 2010 6:55pm
Quoting andreypu
well if you looked at the charts when the euro was 1.51 you could hear all the people scream the usd is getting slaughtered
i agree with skyzer... if you have proper money management and time you never use stop losses... you open long and short dependending on the signals - i use 30 m or 1 h tf... and you close them on profit when the signal becomes the opposite... if the signal comes when you are not on profit - news or something like that -then you open the opposite position.. you do this for months adding positions and closing only when you are...
with time you lose and your broker wins while they hold your money and use it to make money. I laugh every time I hear someone say they don't lose because they never close. If that's the way you want to trade then fine, I'll go ahead and pick up all the pips on the table.
  • #216,566
  • Mar 25, 2010 6:56pm Mar 25, 2010 6:56pm
Trend in motions have tendencies to remain in trend. The reason is we have broken past a resistance that lasted about 1 month. That is enough reason to say that it will continue to go south for a while. Many people are invested around the support area.

The further away it moves from that area, the more the bulls are trying to get out. Right now I would say that it is quite far away for any short term bulls to get back in the market. If anything at all, they are hoping for a retrace so that the can close out the positions.

No need to worry about what news will propell this. Prices will fall by itself until it reaches the next big resistance
  • #216,567
  • Mar 25, 2010 6:57pm Mar 25, 2010 6:57pm
Quoting 2+2=4ex
Same goes for hedging. They are both cousins martingale and hedging. Maybe even brother and sister on second thought. I have found playing bounces and closing out trades according to s/r, tl's, fibs, etc. is more profittable then sitting around waiting for a trade to make up losses. That's just my opinion.

Definitely related because in the coin toss its either heads or tails; in Forex its either Long or Short.
  • #216,568
  • Mar 25, 2010 6:59pm Mar 25, 2010 6:59pm
Quoting 2+2=4ex
I'll go ahead and pick up all the pips on the table.
Alright then go ahead an pick them all up.

Mean while you short and I'm long since 1.3279, so, guess who's picking

them now..
Viewer Discretion Advised: Shall we shag now or should we shag later? :-)
  • #216,569
  • Mar 25, 2010 7:03pm Mar 25, 2010 7:03pm
Quoting SkyzerFX
Alright then go ahead an pick them all up.

Mean while you short and I'm long since 1.3279, so, guess who's picking

them now..
ME Finally in very short termish.
  • #216,570
  • Mar 25, 2010 7:04pm Mar 25, 2010 7:04pm
Quoting SkyzerFX
Alright then go ahead an pick them all up.

Mean while you short and I'm long since 1.3279, so, guess who picking

them now..
Uhhh, who said I wasn't long?? You totally misunderstood me. I open and close, long or short based on s/r, tl's fib's, oversold, overbought, etc. I never said anything about never going long?? You're f**king crazy lol. What I said I don't do is martingale, hedging or cost averaging. So how many pips of your -1800 (from 1.51) have you made up by going "long since 1.3279"?
  • #216,571
  • Mar 25, 2010 7:08pm Mar 25, 2010 7:08pm
Quoting Mr Hatch
ME Finally in very short termish.
Ok, guys, it's been fun, really, cause it's so crazy these days..

I closed my long

(won't leave anything overnight) and leaving.. Hope you guys can short

or long this beast, wherever it's going... Many pips to all

P.S: Jeees of course it's shoot straight up, what else is new
Viewer Discretion Advised: Shall we shag now or should we shag later? :-)
  • #216,572
  • Edited 7:24pm Mar 25, 2010 7:09pm | Edited 7:24pm
maybe resistance ate 3320 for a retrace down and up again
  • #216,573
  • Mar 25, 2010 7:12pm Mar 25, 2010 7:12pm
Eur/Usd will go up around 1.34 as professional and institutional investors will close their shorts on Friday. They will not hold over the weekend. Expect a bounce even above 1.34 depending on the EU Summit report.
  • #216,574
  • Mar 25, 2010 7:12pm Mar 25, 2010 7:12pm
It's a fastanating study when you look into Martingales.
The math truth about odds is really 50-50 when it comes to Martingale . For example if you flip a coin 20 times and the last 17 flips came up heads the math says the chances of the next flip coming up heads again is still 50-50.

However in real life i have found that laws of average do exist and can work towards your favor sometimes not all of the time.
The other thing is I have used Martingales in many ways, however I have found that Anti-Martingale has a 4-5 times better return than a MArtingale.
FWIW..
Dean



Quoting PipLand
Originally, martingale referred to a class of betting strategies popular in 18th century France....
  • #216,575
  • Mar 25, 2010 7:13pm Mar 25, 2010 7:13pm
Quoting SkyzerFX
Ok, guys, it's been fun, really, cause it's so crazy these days..

I closed my long

(won't leave anything overnight) and leaving.. Hope you guys can short

or long this beast, wherever it's going... Many pips to all

P.S: Jeees of course it's shoot straight up, what else is new
Good night man. Wish I would of joined the fun a little earlier but was away most of the day. BTW, thanks for sharing center of universe yesterday. It has been somewhat crazy lately, but to me the craziest time was second half of 2008. Huge drop from high and then a December spike within a week or two of over 1000 pips. That was crazy. Lots of people banked or busted during that time. If you experienced it and survived it was a good lesson. History repeats itself. Laters.
  • #216,576
  • Mar 25, 2010 7:15pm Mar 25, 2010 7:15pm
Quoting dean walker
It's a fastanating study when you look into Martingales.
The math truth about odds is really 50-50 when it comes to Martingale . For example if you flip a coin 20 times and the last 17 flips came up heads the math says the chances of the next flip coming up heads again is still 50-50.

However in real life i have found that laws of average do exist and can work towards your favor sometimes not all of the time.
The other thing is I have used Martingales in many ways, however I have found that Anti-Martingale has a 4-5 times better return than a...
dean, whatchu mean (haha that rhymes) by anti-martingale?
  • #216,577
  • Mar 25, 2010 7:23pm Mar 25, 2010 7:23pm
Hi,

Anti-martingale is when your winning you keep doubling on your bets..
So transferred for trading purpose lets say I just shorted the eur/usd which in fact I did. I will always start out with 2 trades if it is turning into a winner I scale in 2 more trades as oon as the first 2 trades have been paid clear so if I have a 60 pip run I would normally get close to 300 pips out of it..Now this is still betting just like it is using the martingale however you will find this way much more rewarding..
hope that helps..
Dean


quote=2+2=4ex;3585741]dean, whatchu mean (haha that rhymes) by anti-martingale?[/quote]
  • #216,578
  • Mar 25, 2010 7:28pm Mar 25, 2010 7:28pm
Quoting dean walker
Hi,

Anti-martingale is when your winning you keep doubling on your bets..
So transferred for trading purpose lets say I just shorted the eur/usd which in fact I did. I will always start out with 2 trades if it is turning into a winner I scale in 2 more trades as oon as the first 2 trades have been paid clear so if I have a 60 pip run I would normally get close to 300 pips out of it..Now this is still betting just like it is using the martingale however you will find this way much more rewarding..
hope that helps..
Dean


quote=2+2=4ex;3585741]dean,...
[/quote]

Interesting. I'm going to give it a try (without changing my entry and exit rules). What do you mean by paid clear? When do you reach that point where you scale in the other two? Half way to tp?
  • #216,579
  • Mar 25, 2010 7:38pm Mar 25, 2010 7:38pm
It depends on my lot size of ea trade I use differnt sizes.
For example if I have a short at 1.3310 and TP at 1.3255 I have a way of averaging between that pip distance what the first 2 trades need in profit for me to open up 2 more..

Now the simple quick way of doing this which more or less seems to work out the same is for every 60 pips you can scale in a max 2 times.. so 1-20 fitrst 2 trades.20-40 scale in2.40-60 scale in 2.

It works not 100% of the time but you see using the betting this way gives you much more control than a martingale you can choose to take prfits going down to your TP which I always do. The moment I see a small pull back I will take profit of the first trades following the rule first in , first out..
Hope that helps..
Dean

Interesting. I'm going to give it a try (without changing my entry and exit rules). What do you mean by paid clear? When do you reach that point where you scale in the other two? Half way to tp?[/quote]
  • #216,580
  • Mar 25, 2010 7:45pm Mar 25, 2010 7:45pm
Quoting SkyzerFX
Absolutely agree, but if I can make constant money with 0.01 lot and only

problem is the amount of money? Get somebody to write EA and let it run,

and if EA can make...
Your word is about "Hedging" which in general means just putting some money in the market staying in there with no progress. Buying and selling here and there closing them for a small profit and not worrying about a losing position, keeping them open with an everlasting hope that market will return so that you can close all of them either in profit or BE and all of these because you have a large sum of money in your account ... I think this won't make any money for the trader, no matter if a robot or a living person is doing this.

The point is if a trader knows what he is doing he wont need to hedge. Agree? Hedging comes into play when one doesn't know if the market will go his way or not ... in other words "Uncertainty".

These factors, uncertainty and having a big account while trading very small size and not worrying about keeping a losing position open forces you to trade carelessly. This leads to turning an ever growing portion of your account into so called "Dead Money" which is there but of course Useless. After some while you will notice you have one or several losing positions open which of course you don't worry about them and you don't know how to compensate the floating loss.

Consider if you had a long position in GBPJPY at we say 230.00 and kept it open till now (which may well happen in long term) which would be a -9000 losing position so far. How many years do you think you can wait for the market to get back there so you can close it we say at least at BE?

I've been there before pal. Not logical.

If you really want to put large money into play and start with small size, martingaling would be more logical than hedging (which I generally don't agree with too).

Starting $1,000,000 capital and 0.01 lots for a 1 cents value each pip with 1/500 leverage (if you can find a broker who offers such accounts for that account size) would bring no worries to you too but at least this way you know you are making some money and also you won't have a dead money because the final position will compensate all losses in total and you can start over.

JMHO for all of these
Discipline + Patience - Fear - Greed = Success
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