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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #15,221
  • Mar 24, 2010 3:45pm Mar 24, 2010 3:45pm
Quoting gammase1
It is telling that the yen could not make any gain from the sell-off equities seen earlier today. Perhaps it is the uncertainty from year-end flows that is weighing on the yen. Or it could be the moves at the front-end of the US yield curve remain supportive of further gains for this pair.

We have gone long on this pair at 91.25, s/l @ 90.25, with an open profit target. However, we are hoping to see price move close to the 93.00 handle.
S/L moved to b/e on this trade.....
  • #15,222
  • Mar 24, 2010 8:19pm Mar 24, 2010 8:19pm
The RPM ratio for the USDJPY is currently 1.1.
This signifies that there are 1.1 BUYERS for 1 every SELLER.

RPM is a contrarian indicator. Therefore the USDJPY pair has a VERY slight SELL sentiment bias.
  • #15,223
  • Mar 24, 2010 8:51pm Mar 24, 2010 8:51pm
Quoting rpmfxtrader
The RPM ratio for the USDJPY is currently 1.1.
This signifies that there are 1.1 BUYERS for 1 every SELLER.

RPM is a contrarian indicator. Therefore the USDJPY pair has a VERY slight SELL sentiment bias.
I have no idea what the RPM indicator is good for, but I have my own view which is if the JPY holds the recent high, imho it has a good chance, it will have it's support levels clear at:
88.92(61,8FE+low on 02/28)
86.60(100FE+low on 11/29)
83.20(161.8FE)
I expect the price to start fall this or next week dramatically if again, recent high holds. And the 3rd low should be reached by June
Good luck, gang!
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  • #15,224
  • Mar 24, 2010 9:15pm Mar 24, 2010 9:15pm
After consolidation, the big test will be the TL @94.5
  • #15,225
  • Mar 24, 2010 9:16pm Mar 24, 2010 9:16pm
Quoting pipsbull
I have no idea what the RPM indicator is good for, but I have my own view which is if the JPY holds the recent high, imho it has a good chance, it will have it's support levels clear at:
88.92(61,8FE+low on 02/28)
86.60(100FE+low on 11/29)
83.20(161.8FE)
I expect the price to start fall this or next week dramatically if again, recent high holds. And the 3rd low should be reached by June
Good luck, gang!
Today's run up was huge strength - a 200 pip rally in UJ is huge; unless the major market indicies get rejected, I don't expect a bigger retrace than 91.1, if that. Major buyers with huge volumes stepped up to the plate today and they will protect their wants/gains. Recall also NFP is a week from Friday - if as widely expected the report is again positive, UJ will head further north.
  • #15,226
  • Mar 24, 2010 9:26pm Mar 24, 2010 9:26pm
Quoting Beljevina
Today's run up was huge strength - a 200 pip rally in UJ is huge; unless the major market indicies get rejected, I don't expect a bigger retrace than 91.1, if that. Major buyers with huge volumes stepped up to the plate today and they will protect their wants/gains. Recall also NFP is a week from Friday - if as widely expected the report is again positive, UJ will head further north.
I see your position, mate. And if there is at least a firm daily close(weekly preferred) above the UTL, then all stakes for shorts are off and road to 101.50 will be opened.
And I see 94.5 as a possible challange there too.
  • #15,227
  • Mar 25, 2010 12:07am Mar 25, 2010 12:07am
6 weeks ago I went long at 91.35' saw the big drop to 88 or so, bought some more.

On the third time it reached 89.600--85; I bought again.

I had a good day but is there ever a good day when onst is trading?

I am close to covering Feb. losses.

90% of my trading is scalping.

Hmmm., I am begining to look at the ...long termaspect of trading.
  • #15,228
  • Mar 25, 2010 1:37am Mar 25, 2010 1:37am
okay.
Quoting Beljevina
Today's run up was huge strength - a 200 pip rally in UJ is huge; unless the major market indicies get rejected, I don't expect a bigger retrace than 91.1, if that. Major buyers with huge volumes stepped up to the plate today and they will protect their wants/gains. Recall also NFP is a week from Friday - if as widely expected the report is again positive, UJ will head further north.
  • #15,229
  • Mar 25, 2010 6:49am Mar 25, 2010 6:49am
Sentiment is up from 1.1 to 1.4. Seems a little late to be jumping on the bandwagon. If this rate continues up, Ill be watching for reversals and stop hunting.
  • #15,230
  • Mar 25, 2010 11:32am Mar 25, 2010 11:32am
daily TL is broken. this doesn't look good for the yen. possible target up is the daily pivot s1 at 92.89
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  • #15,231
  • Mar 25, 2010 11:52am Mar 25, 2010 11:52am
Is it possible ???
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  • #15,232
  • Mar 25, 2010 12:30pm Mar 25, 2010 12:30pm
Anyone has any idea why JPY weaken lately ?!? Next 1st April , Japan will sell 10 bil usd bond, is there any relation ? I though if Japan issue bond in their country, foreigner will buy JPY to buy bond, then JPY should be strengthen, not weaken. Need advice here and an explaination ! Many thanks
  • #15,233
  • Mar 25, 2010 12:36pm Mar 25, 2010 12:36pm
Quoting goldpoll
Anyone has any idea why JPY weaken lately ?!? Next 1st April , Japan will sell 10 bil usd bond, is there any relation ? I though if Japan issue bond in their country, foreigner will buy JPY to buy bond, then JPY should be strengthen, not weaken. Need advice here and an explaination ! Many thanks
It' payback time!


Seriously, the specs are betting that US will raise their rates soon while Japan is still heading the opposite direction.
On top of this, from a technical standpoint, when UJ breaks the TL couple days ago, the mofos tend to jump in en masse for fear of missing the boat, but the bigger test is still to come, the TL @94.5.
  • #15,234
  • Mar 25, 2010 1:23pm Mar 25, 2010 1:23pm
So how about the next coming Bond issue of Japan which worth 10 billion usd ? No connection ? Secondly, in terms of business, Japan is more attractive for business , especially after crisis, thus basically JPY has to be strengthen, not weaken ! Thirdy UJ somehow has positive correlation with EJ and GJ where I noticed a Head n Shoulder on their 4H chart, so you think UJ will go down in next sessions ?
  • #15,235
  • Mar 25, 2010 1:54pm Mar 25, 2010 1:54pm
Quoting goldpoll
So how about the next coming Bond issue of Japan which worth 10 billion usd ? No connection ? Secondly, in terms of business, Japan is more attractive for business , especially after crisis, thus basically JPY has to be strengthen, not weaken ! Thirdy UJ somehow has positive correlation with EJ and GJ where I noticed a Head n Shoulder on their 4H chart, so you think UJ will go down in next sessions ?
I won't argue fundamentals with you because personally I think both currencies are crap right now. I play what I perceived is going on short term since I daytrade only, no long term "investing" here.
Just remember, small fry like us are just gnats on an elephant's arse in the forex jungle. When the bullies move, we try to hang on for dear life and move with them. It's good to have an opinion but just don't go stand in front of a moving train.
  • #15,236
  • Mar 25, 2010 2:38pm Mar 25, 2010 2:38pm
The price today is above ten weeks maximums.

I think anytime breaking up annual maximums at 93.70

If breaking up I think the minimum objective is 97

But I think the price looking for 101.50 next months.

http://img714.imageshack.us/img714/1281/dibujonk.png
  • #15,237
  • Mar 25, 2010 3:28pm Mar 25, 2010 3:28pm
Quoting gammase1
It is telling that the yen could not make any gain from the sell-off equities seen earlier today. Perhaps it is the uncertainty from year-end flows that is weighing on the yen. Or it could be the moves at the front-end of the US yield curve remain supportive of further gains for this pair.

We have gone long on this pair at 91.25, s/l @ 90.25, with an open profit target. However, we are hoping to see price move close to the 93.00 handle.
Position closed out at 9265, realising a gain of 140 pips.....
  • #15,238
  • Mar 26, 2010 2:10am Mar 26, 2010 2:10am
If we watch Currency Shares Japanes Yen we can see breaking bullish trendline with gap and strong volume.

Impossible better.

http://img517.imageshack.us/img517/8308/dibujobgr.png
  • #15,239
  • Mar 26, 2010 1:41pm Mar 26, 2010 1:41pm
http://img338.imageshack.us/img338/5632/maintenant.gif
maybe a nice retrace if its not consolidating again, i was trading against my rules, taking the peak of resistance for a range trade, so support is first target, what correlates with the fib 23%, every fib level is a target, if it break, go further, i will not discuss on long term here, cause of the bullish cycles on the daily...

please share your ideas
  • #15,240
  • Mar 27, 2010 11:47am Mar 27, 2010 11:47am
The price is clearly above bearish trendline and 200 day moving average.

Should going up.

http://img717.imageshack.us/img717/1/dibujoeze.png

http://img717.imageshack.us/img717/1/dibujoeze.png
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