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  • #215,621
  • Mar 24, 2010 7:54am Mar 24, 2010 7:54am
Wow. woke up and saw EURO at 1.33.

I will go long when it hits 1.31
  • #215,622
  • Mar 24, 2010 7:54am Mar 24, 2010 7:54am
Quoting Trading Cat
yes good point and I will be ready and waiting for exactly this
Thanks TC. Me too. I just wish we know when it will be! But if the Euro is in very serious trouble it may not come back to the resistance. As I said on one of my previous posts, Goldman Sachs will probably put a buy on it to drive it up so that they can sell at a better level.
  • #215,623
  • Mar 24, 2010 7:55am Mar 24, 2010 7:55am
Quoting Mr Hatch
alright, a little light has been lit. just to clarify: if we have strong s/r just somewhere (time doesn't matter because of market memory, does it?), mr. market will return to retest it's strength/validity sometime?
if this was the case, i could light another candle on my way to understanding.
Not always, but you will frequently see former support tested as resistance (and vice versa) post breakout.
  • #215,624
  • Mar 24, 2010 7:56am Mar 24, 2010 7:56am
Quoting Mr Hatch
alright, a little light has been lit. just to clarify: if we have strong s/r just somewhere (time doesn't matter because of market memory, does it?), mr. market will return to retest it's strength/validity sometime?
if this was the case, i could light another candle on my way to understanding.
to me its a yes and no answer. cox it depends on which direction its moving, else elliot wouldn't work and depending on which waves... as i do use waves to analyse my trades, not pro like some others tho.

but if you want to simply put it, then its yes...
  • #215,625
  • Mar 24, 2010 7:58am Mar 24, 2010 7:58am
Looking for a Sell Entry...I hope they pull this backup a bit...cant risk a sell here..
  • #215,626
  • Mar 24, 2010 7:59am Mar 24, 2010 7:59am
Quoting Mr Hatch
oanda is having serious connection issues lately.

"sorry for your inconvenience." yadda, yadda.
Yes they are. Took minutes from when I clicked submit to when my order showed up and then another minute for it to close. Luckily the market went about 20 pips in my favor in the meantime...
  • #215,627
  • Mar 24, 2010 8:02am Mar 24, 2010 8:02am
Quoting Caravanpark
Thanks TC. Me too. I just wish we know when it will be! But if the Euro is in very serious trouble it may not come back to the resistance. As I said on one of my previous posts, Goldman Sachs will probably put a buy on it to drive it up so that they can sell at a better level.
dont let the news confuse you, its all rubbish anyway the market eg € does what it does some panic here, some there makes it more interesting but in the end it goes where it wants to and no one can change it.
Right now it looks a little bleak but wait a few weeks even month and all turns back to the US and says how shitty everything is with da Dollar. Could easy be we will be by then at 1.28 of so, but it will come for sure just wait and see. The 3440 should be a massive resistance as it f*#cked around that level for nearly 2 month .
Dont run into trades when u miss one no worries more will come but let them come to you not the other way around. I made those mistakes before and they are costly.
Take care and green pips to you,
TCat
Trade on your own risk Plan your trade&trade your plan dont be a
  • #215,628
  • Edited 8:15am Mar 24, 2010 8:04am | Edited 8:15am
Quoting PriceVolume
Not always, but you will frequently see former support tested as resistance (and vice versa) post breakout.
Quoting Clairvoyant
to me its a yes and no answer. cox it depends on which direction its moving, else elliot wouldn't work and depending on which waves... as i do use waves to analyse my trades, not pro like some others tho.

but if you want to simply put it, then its yes...
thanks to both of you. i was looking at weekly chart and saw the s/r functionality, but i would never have thought of this to of such importance, because at the same time we went through it back and forth a few times as well. i wasn't aware of the fact that a s/r stays valid in such a case.
  • #215,629
  • Mar 24, 2010 8:06am Mar 24, 2010 8:06am
way up till 1,34 now?
  • #215,630
  • Mar 24, 2010 8:08am Mar 24, 2010 8:08am
Quoting Mr Hatch
thanky to both of you. i was looking at weekly chart and saw the s/r functionality, but i would never have thought of this to of such importance, because at the same time we went through it back and forth a few times as well. i wasn't aware of the fact that a s/r stays valid in such a case.
Just remember it is not a precise science, rather an art. If in your estimation, former support was at 3440, that does not mean that if it goes to 3442 it has failed as resistance. You have to watch the PA around the area.....
  • #215,631
  • Mar 24, 2010 8:10am Mar 24, 2010 8:10am
Quoting Mr Hatch
alright, a little light has been lit. just to clarify: if we have strong s/r just somewhere (time doesn't matter because of market memory, does it?), mr. market will return to retest it's strength/validity sometime?
if this was the case, i could light another candle on my way to understanding.
Yes but the time charts do matter. In that case I was referring to the daily chart - have a look at it and you will see what I mean. It also works more often than not on any time frame. Take today on the 5 minute chart, 1st support it broke through was at 1.3444 at 05.05am which it came back to test at 8.25am, 2nd support broke through at 1.3404 at 8.40am and it came back to test at 9am, 3rd support broke through at 1.3363 at 10am (after a false breakout at 9.05am)and came back to test at 11.20am and went through try to go higher but found no buyers and came back down. Since then we have been in consolidation.
There are some excellent traders on this Forum who are able to give very precise figures on these things and I would like to learn how to do it but don't know how so, for now, I just have to rely on simple things. My apologies if I have confused you more!
  • #215,632
  • Mar 24, 2010 8:11am Mar 24, 2010 8:11am
fontu,

Looking at 4hr chart using TD we have a 9 and cd of 13.....should be a good sign to test support around 3400?
  • #215,633
  • Mar 24, 2010 8:13am Mar 24, 2010 8:13am
Quoting Caravanpark
Yes but the time charts do matter....
Well....to me it look like the eur/usd wants to move up for a while...maybe go get all the stops sitting up around 1.35 area....I get the feeling it is done going down for the next 36-48 hours....
  • #215,634
  • Mar 24, 2010 8:14am Mar 24, 2010 8:14am
Quoting PriceVolume
Just remember it is not a precise science, rather an art. If in your estimation, former support was at 3440, that does not mean that if it goes to 3442 it has failed as resistance. You have to watch the PA around the area.....
yeap, spikes are frequent. false break as well. and its this art that evolves to the art of placing ur stop. where you place and how much. i know of some that find more reason to place stop so its more justifiable, well not for me tho. It's the trading logic that matters.

Allow a comfortable zone for price to move.

however, a support/resistance at weekly chart may result in a few hundred pips false break b4 reversing. so pay attention to lower time frames as well to cover and watch the movement, if your stop cant cover that wide...
  • #215,635
  • Mar 24, 2010 8:15am Mar 24, 2010 8:15am
Quoting Trading Cat
dont let the news confuse you, its all rubbish anyway the market eg € does what it does some panic here, some there makes it more interesting but in the end it goes where it wants to and no one can change it.
Right now it looks a little bleak but wait a few weeks even month and all turns back to the US and says how shitty everything is with da Dollar. Could easy be we will be by then at 1.28 of so, but it will come for sure just wait and see. The 3440 should be a massive resistance as it f*#cked around that level for nearly 2 month .
Dont run...
Much appreciated thanks and green ones to you too.
PS Am listening to Alistair Darling drone on with his boring budget. He's no darling of mine. In fact, I may have a lunch break and a stiff drink!
  • #215,636
  • Mar 24, 2010 8:16am Mar 24, 2010 8:16am
strong usd bull! a little pullback may not last long..if it gets up before europe closes..ride-em cowboy!
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #215,637
  • Mar 24, 2010 8:16am Mar 24, 2010 8:16am
Boring afternoon....up down up down
Come on goldman buy some euro
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #215,638
  • Mar 24, 2010 8:17am Mar 24, 2010 8:17am
Quoting Robby
Well....to me it look like the eur/usd wants to move up for a while...maybe go get all the stops sitting up around 1.35 area....I get the feeling it is done going down for the next 36-48 hours....
But that's just a feeling - I would treat it as such. I don't mean this in a rude way, just food for thought. Looking at the 5M, it's obvious we're consolidating, and though it has a bias lower, you could ultimately be correct. Why not wait for a break of the consolidation in an impulsive move upward prior to risking a trade long with a tight stop? Or at least until you see rejection off of a fib or pivot with break of consolidation?
  • #215,639
  • Mar 24, 2010 8:17am Mar 24, 2010 8:17am
Quoting Robby
Well....to me it look like the eur/usd wants to move up for a while...maybe go get all the stops sitting up around 1.35 area....I get the feeling it is done going down for the next 36-48 hours....
Is that based on any technicals or a gut feeling?
  • #215,640
  • Mar 24, 2010 8:19am Mar 24, 2010 8:19am
Quoting PriceVolume
But that's just a feeling - I would treat it as such. I don't mean this in a rude way, just food for thought. Looking at the 5M, it's obvious we're consolidating, and though it has a bias lower, you could ultimately be correct. Why not wait for a break of the consolidation in an impulsive move upward prior to risking a trade long with a tight stop?
Very true...I haven't put a long trade on...but I have closed out all my shorts on the eur/usd! I am thinking hard about a stop buy up around 1.3375 area...but not too sure about it....
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